Bolts.com has done some deep research into the elections official positions in states where they themselves are on the ballot this year. Yikes:
One needs only to skim recent headlines to be reminded of the power of state elections officials to shape access to voting. Nebraska’s secretary of state just unilaterally shut down voter registration for tens of thousands of people with past felony convictions just weeks before the election. The secretary of state in Ohio, who has spent years courting the Big Lie, this month proposed to make it harder to vote by mail by limiting drop boxes. In Arizona, the secretary of state is laying the groundwork to combat election deniers who might seek to reject election results in November.
All these officials were elected by voters in the 2022 midterms, a busy cycle that saw a coordinated (and largely unsuccessful) effort by followers of Donald Trump to take over election administration. Two years later, a new round of states are selecting their chief election officials.
Twelve states are deciding in November who will run their elections going forward.
That role is directly on the ballot in seven states; in five others, voters will elect a governor or lawmakers who’ll then get to appoint their elections chief.
In most of these states, this elections chief is the secretary of state; but in a few, there is another office that has that authority—for instance, in Utah, it’s the lieutenant governor.
Today Bolts is publishing a new guide that walks you through these elections in all 12 states.
In some of these states, including Missouri, Oregon, and Vermont, a candidate is once again running who has clearly embraced false conspiracy theories that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump. They’ve proposed taking drastic actions such as ending mail-in voting.
In other states, such as New Hampshire or Utah, the office is unlikely to fall into the hands of an election denier. But even these races can be critical to the shape of democracy. Secretaries of state or the equivalent official often design voter outreach programs, or set policies that can make voter registration easy or difficult. They can also champion new election legislation or maneuver to stall ballot initiatives.
In the bad old days, many of these (when America was Great) these jobs were often partisan. But it’s having a big resurgence with the new Republicans election stealing strategy. Keep your eyes on this. Some of those states may not be swing states now but …
Ok, ok, I can’t resist. Here’s a little polling chum for a Monday afternoon. Don’t take any of it too seriously because the polls are close and polling is in crisis so we really have no earthly idea who’s ahead and who’s behind. But there are trends…
The national polling averages remain largely unchanged. On the day of the debate, the FiveThirtyEight polling average had Harris leading Trump by 2.5%. Today, that lead is 2.8%. However, a steady stream of positive polls for Harris came out since the debate.
And then, on Sunday morning, anABC News/Ipsos poll showed Harris up by six points over Trump. The poll that reinvigorated political junkies was from Iowa — a non-battleground state. The Des Moines Register poll shows Trump up by only four points. This poll was notable for a few reasons. One, it was conducted by Ann Selzer whose Iowa polls are seen as the gold standard. Two, a previous poll from June had Trump beating Biden by 18 points. Finally, states with similar demographics are correlated. If Biden was losing Iowa by 18 points, it was unlikely he was winning Wisconsin. If Harris is only down four in Iowa — a state Trump won by eight points in 2020, then she should be well-positioned to win in the Blue Wall states.
It’s All Good, But Early
These are positive signs, but it’s still very early. Measuring a big event like a debate usually takes about ten days. High-rated pollsters like the New York Times/Siena have yet to release their post-debate surveys. We need to see some battleground state polls.
I was skeptical that the polls would shift dramatically. America is very polarized. Most persuadable voters won’t watch the debate, and Trump’s coalition won’t abandon him over one bad debate. Thus far, that’s what the polls communicate. Small shifts in Harris’s favor, but nothing significant yet. Some polls, like the ABC News/Ipsos poll, showed no movement at all.
Pfeiffer points out that this is typical for a first debate. Apparently, even June’s Biden-Trump debacle only moved the polls about 1.7 in Trump’s direction. (The difference being that Democrats were horrified and didn’t sugar coat it while the Republicans have doubled down on the fatuous BS that Trump actually won it.)
And the polls did show substantial movement in one very important area that can be critical in a close election:
[T]he most positive news in the polling is not in the head-to-head numbers. The debate improved perceptions of Harris. In theCNN post-debate poll, Harris’s favorability rating went up six points. In the ABC News/Ipsos poll, 37% said the debate made them think more favorably about Kamala Harris. Only 17% said that about Trump.
That 17% must have been drunk.
Harris is still introducing herself to the public. Gaining in approval is key right now. In fact, in most polls she’s the only one of Trump, Vance, and Biden with a positive approval rating now with room to grow. That’s good news.
Polling will make you crazy right now. These close elections are ulcer inducing. But as the pundits always say, “I’d rather be us than them” right now. Let’s hope it holds up and she can get over the line in those all-important swing states.
[I]f the presence of Laura Loomer by Trump’s side is what makes you worry that Trump will get dragged into the dark depths of conspiracy land, well, you’re way too late.
The former president has been a prolific conspiracy theorist for decades. Let’s take a tour through what Trump was thinking even before Loomer joined his entourage:
Trump was the de facto leader of the Obama birther movement, even casually suggesting that the director of the Hawaii Department of Health, who died in a plane crash, was murdered as part of a coverup.
He openly mused that former Weather Underground member Bill Ayers wrote Obama’s memoir and that Obama never actually went to Columbia University.
And, of course, he’s spread a steady stream of lies about election numbers. The 2012 one: dead people voted for Obama. The 2016 one: cheating in blue states like California and New York deprived him of a popular vote win. The 2020 one . . . where do we even start? Sharpies did not invalidate Trump votes; Dominion did not either. People weren’t throwing away bags filled with Trump ballots or randomly finding suitcases filled with Biden ones. Thousands of dead people didn’t vote multiple times. And, no, Italians did not use military technology to tamper with U.S. voting machines.
And there’s the whole raft of other loons he surrounds himself with starting with Michael Flynn who he actually names his national security adviser.
He takes as gospel anything anyone who supports him says. It’s really that simple.
Instead of denouncing the bomb threats in Springfield, Ohio, Donald Trump said, “I don’t know what happened with the bomb threats. I know that it’s been taken over by illegal migrants, and that’s a terrible thing that happened.”pic.twitter.com/AjUTxRZL4N
If you feel as if American politics have taken yet another deep dive into the Trump show maelstrom, you aren’t alone. This past week has been a chaotic whirlwind of lies, false accusations, lurid scandals and even a foiled assassination plot. Even the sleaziest reality show wouldn’t have had the nerve to script something like this.
The assassination plot that capped off the week took place on Sunday at Trump’s Palm Beach golf club where the Secret Service reportedly spotted a man with a rifle in the bushes at one of the holes and shot at him, setting off a chase which concluded in his arrest. It’s still early, but a cursory look at his background appears to show the man’s politics were all over the place from voting for Trump to giving donations to Democrats then begging Nikki Haley to team up with Vivek Ramaswamy to compete for the presidential nomination. He was, at one time at least, attempting to be involved with trying to recruit foreign volunteers to fight in Ukraine but nobody took him seriously.
And he was, naturally, a serious gun nut who’d been charged with crimes going back 20 years, many of them involving firearms so it figures that the Secret Service reportedly found an AK-47 and a scope at the scene. As far as we can tell, this is yet another case of an armed-to-the-teeth, mentally ill man bent on violence.
Democrats across the board, including President Biden and Harris, condemned the attempt and called for calm but it makes no difference. The Republicans are on a tear right now, hurtling off in different directions in the wake of Trump’s disastrous debate performance and it’s unlikely they’re going to dial it back.
Trump’s bizarre contention in the debate that Haitian immigrants are “eating the dogs and eating the cats” in Springfield Ohio has morphed into a full-blown panic resulting in bomb threats, school and hospital closings and terror among the Haitian community in that town. Despite the Governor of Ohio and local leaders and business owners making it clear that none of these grisly accusations are true and that, in fact, the immigrants are hard-working, taxpaying contributors to the economic resurgence of the town after years of decay, they are not backing down.
a far-right and Identitarian political concept referring to the forced or promoted return of non-ethnically European immigrants, often including their descendants who were born in Europe, back to their place of racial origin, typically with no regard for their citizenship
We know how he feels about those “sh*thole” countries. He was railing against them during his presidency. Now we are seeing him gin up threats against legal immigrants who hail from them.
Sen. JD Vance, the VP nominee, made the rounds of the Sunday shows and doubled down on the calumny. When confronted by CNN’s Dana bash with the fact that the accusations about eating cats and dogs were lies, Vance admitted it, explaining that they have to lie about these things to get the media to focus on their narrative:
JD Vance is even more dishonest than Donald Trump. The old guy lies a lot but often he can't tell the difference between fantasy and reality. He regularly thinks he's in some other state.
Vance is a calculating deceiver who has now admitted that he lied for political advantage.… https://t.co/YrSPaRGz1w
I agree that Trump probably doesn’t know that what he’s saying is a lie. He said he heard it on television, presumably Fox News, so in his mind it may be a fact. And he doubles down on everything anyway because MAGA means never having to say you’re sorry. But Vance knows better. Unfortunately, he doesn’t know when to keep his mouth shut and he often gives away the game as he did there.
It came to my attention that there is an actual political strategy known as “the dead cat strategy, also known as deadcatting,” if you can believe that. It was coined by none other than former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson when he was the mayor of London:
There is one thing that is absolutely certain about throwing a dead cat on the dining room table – and I don’t mean that people will be outraged, alarmed, disgusted. That is true, but irrelevant. The key point, says my Australian friend, is that everyone will shout, “Jeez, mate, there’s a dead cat on the table!” In other words, they will be talking about the dead cat – the thing you want them to talk about – and they will not be talking about the issue that has been causing you so much grief.
According to The Bulwark’s Marc Caputo, the Trump campaign is very happy with this Haitian immigration story. He says they believe that if the media is talking about immigration (even if it’s a lie) they are winning because it’s their strongest issue in polling. I would imagine that’s true to some degree. But that’s not the only reason. They don’t want the media rehashing that dismal debate performance and they really don’t want it talking about Trump’s rumored paramour Laura Loomer, which has caused a rift in the GOP coalition.
Using an actual “dead cat” is more than a little bit on the nose but I have no doubt that at least some of them are aware of the concept. JD Vance surely is. Even after the bomb threats started he tweeted out to his MAGA followers: “In short, don’t let the crybabies in the media dissuade you, fellow patriots. Keep the cat memes flowing.”
They are clearly trying to distract from their campaign’s shortcomings, with Trump even posting one of the silliest, most juvenile posts he’s ever written to try to get a new controversy going. On Sunday he blurted out: “I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT.” (Maybe he let his 6 year old grandson play with his phone but I doubt it.) Vance’s admission that they “create stories” along with his obstreperous appearances on the Sunday shows overshadowed it, lucky for him, and then another lunatic, gun nut gave him the ultimate gift of thwarted martyrdom and overwhelmed everything else.
I wish we could say that this would also mean that the Haitian immigrants who live in Springfield, Ohio will be able to go back to their lives and put these horrible lies and accusations behind them. But earlier on Sunday, Trump’s campaign said that he plans to visit there “very soon.” They aren’t going to let this go, at least until they find a new outrage with which entertain their supporters and distract from the fact that Trump is deteriorating more every day and JD Vance isn’t ready for prime time. We just have to fervently hope that nobody gets hurt before they move on to the next shiny object.
Also known as the Gravity Tree. In the grounds of Woolsthorpe Manor, near Grantham. It is the descendant of the tree under which Isaac Newton sat in 1666, when he saw an apple fall near him, inspiring him to fully realize his theory of gravity. Photo by It’s No Game from Leicestershire, UK. (CC BY 2.0)
The Ink this morning one-ups Washington Post satirist Alexandra Petri in reflecting on the “Unity Statement.” You know the ones, the pro forma statements Democratic politicians make in response to mass shootings or, in today’s news, an attempted assassination. Certain stylistic conventions must be followed:
First, the statement maker’s spouse’s name should be included prominently somewhere: “Becky and I were sad to hear…” “Corey and I were deeply shaken by the news…” “Charlie and I join together…” The inclusion of the spouse is important here because it signals that this is a special kind of statement. More Christmas card vibes than political statement vibes. The normal rules are suspended. There will be no jabs here, no stridency, maybe not even any truth.
Second, the Unity Statement must deplore effects without naming or shaming their causes. Now is not the time for blaming someone for their role in contributing to what has finally now come around to imperil them, too. The Unity Statement thereby defies physics with its conception of uncaused effects; it defies botany in its vision of reaping with no connection whatever to sowing.
Third, a Democratic Unity Statement must mention temperature. Specifically, it should suggest that the temperature has risen too high. Though it may be Republicans who are overwhelmingly responsible for raising the temperature, planetarily and politically, in a respectable Unity Statement, this cannot be said. Instead, it should be argued that the temperature be lowered. Who knows how it got raised, and who really cares? And the Democratic statement maker must immediately volunteer to participate in the lowering of what they may have had no part in raising.
Fourth, the Unity Statement must, duh!, call for unity. Oh, and it must be unilateral unity. “Unity,” unmodified, is defined by Merriam-Webster as “the quality or state of not being multiple,” even “a condition of harmony.” The issuer of the Unity Statement knows that this ain’t gonna happen nationally. What the well-meaning Democratic leader means when they call for unity is that they want you, their followers, the people who would actually listen to a Democrat’s words, to engage in some unity making all by yourself. Reach out to an uncle you cut out of your life just because he made the honest mistake of degrading your very being at Thanksgiving; bake brownies for a neighbor whose only sin is flying a Trump flag — plus the Aryan Nations tattoos. Go do some unity — and don’t wait for anyone else to join you. Dance like no one’s watching, they say. Do unity like the other side isn’t ever going to do it also.
Is it any wonder the public perceives Democrats as measly-mouthed while the bomb-throwers are seen as strong leaders? And how does the unity statement reinforce that?
For one, because these events, as a Kamala Harris meme reflects, have context, context which Unity Statements elide. They offer a salve without relieving ongoing injury. They soothe symptoms without addressing root causes.
It is possible to believe that shooting leaders we don’t like is absolutely, incontrovertibly out of bounds and — and — that this event has a history and a context. It didn’t just fall out of a coconut tree. It is possible to wish a man a speedy recovery and to insist on the urgency of doing every peaceful thing humanly possible to prevent him from driving the country even further down this road to where what happened to him — even though it never should have — becomes unexceptional.
Newton realized that apples don’t fall to Earth by themselves. Actions have causes.
“This business will get out of control. It’ll get out of control and we’ll be lucky to live through it.” — Pre-Sen. Fred Thompson (Admiral Painter) in The Hunt For Red October (1990)
Another apparent assassination attempt against Donald Trump occurred Sunday. A keen-eyed Secret Service agent spotted a rifle barrel poking through the perimeter fence of Trump’s West Palm Beach, Fla. golf club and opened fire. The gunman, 58, fled in his car and was captured alive miles away. The suspect has a criminal history and a “quixotic past.” Scrambled eggs where his brain should be, by multiple accounts.
Trump is safe. Prominent political figures expressed their relief and condemned political violence. Again. We’ll know more about the guy in due course. He’s “all over the map.”
The man in custody in connection with what is being described as a second assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump has a long criminal and civil court history, including a conviction for possessing a machine gun. pic.twitter.com/4r70QTWpm6
Ironically, I wrote hours earlier that “Between now and Jan. 20 anything might happen.” A wrong turn in Sarajevo touched off WWI. Events like this assassination attempt, J.D. Vance and Trump stoking hate against immigrants, and more devious political shenanigans from MAGA Republicans before and after the election are what I had in mind. Political tensions were already running high.
People like Elon Musk mean to dial them up to 11. Tucker Carlson thinks demonizing nonwhite immigrants is “so great!”
In all seriousness, as a former federal prosecutor, I can tell you that a statement like Elon Musk's below DOES require an immediate visit by the U.S. Secret Service. That is the protocol in every similar situation. https://t.co/OuZ4lYoNlu
Trump is melting down like that cake left out in the rain. He blasted “I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT” on Truth Social yesterday because she endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris and urged Swifties to register and vote. What sane candidate does that? Trump has surely seen the polls indicating his chances of winning the presidency and staying out of jail are slipping away. He’s panicked and lashing out. He’s not even trying to win. Trump will burn the place down if he does not, and take as many of his enemies with him as possible.
God knows what comes next. Strap in. It’s going to get bumpy.
Jamelle Bouie and (Adam Serwer) have some choice words about JD Vance and his crusade against Haitian immigrants:
In his speech accepting the Republican nomination for vice president, Vance rejected a creedal notion of American identity. America, he said, “is not just an idea. It is a group of people with a shared history and a common future. It is, in short, a nation.” He went on to add that America is a “homeland” and that “people will not fight for abstractions, but they will fight for their home.”
To some overly credulous commentators, this was nothing more than respect for place and a call to assimilate. But as Adam Serwer observes in The Atlantic, Vance’s argument was more radical than it appeared at first glance.
To say that Americans are willing to fight for their plot of land is to say that they are like every other group of people that has ever existed and that exists now. It is to say that there is nothing particularly special about America or American ideals at all. But the ideals that have animated the American project have exercised such a powerful appeal around the world precisely because they speak to more universal aspirations.
To reject creedal nationalism, Serwer says, is to embrace, in its stead, a blood-and-soil nationalism that hold some Americans as more American than others. It is to say that there are some people who, on account of their origins or those of their parents and grandparents, cannot be full and equal members of the national community.
In waging rhetorical war on the Haitian immigrants of Springfield, Ohio, Vance has clarified the meaning of his convention speech. It does not matter, to Vance, that these Haitian newcomers came here legally, under the Temporary Protected Status program. It does not matter that they filled a valuable need. It does not matter that they reversed a slow collapse that has already sapped the life from so many former industrial towns. It does not matter that they work hard and seem eager, by all accounts, to establish themselves as productive members of the community.
What matters to Vance is who they are, where they come from and what they look like. They don’t belong to this soil, he might say, and therefore they don’t belong. Right now, the most Vance can do to wage this war is use his words. I shudder to think what might be possible if he had the authority of the state to wield as well.
We might as well melt the Statue of Liberty into Trump commemorative coins and let him sell them for a thousand dollars apiece. The ideals (often unfulfilled) that animated Americans since the founding are dead if th4ese guys win.
I don’t think there is any doubt what Vance and his tech-bro mentors have in mind. They aren’t trying to hide it.
Update:
The NY Times originally had this accurate headline on this story:
Apparently, they succumbed to pressure from the right to change it to this milquetoast headline:
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