The Republican Party’s Biggest Problem
by digby
Here’s another dispatch from Bill Sher who’s blogging from CPAC. It may surprise you but it’s actually quite true:
Today through Saturday, when Republicans and conservatives gather in Washington for the annual Conservative Political Action Conference, will they face up to the biggest obstacle preventing them from connecting with voters? Their “secular problem.”
Lots of ink has been spilled about how Democrats and liberals suffer from a “religion problem” — a perceived hostility towards Christianity and religion in general. But Pew Research Center exit poll data from the 2006 midterm elections shows the opposite.
Democrats crushed Republicans among secular voters, broadly defined as those who attend church seldom (favoring Democrats 60% to 38%) or never (67% to 30%). Republicans retained strong support among those who attend church more than weekly. But among those who only go weekly — the larger portion of the religious vote — the Republican lead shrunk from 15 points to 7.
In short, Republicans failed to be competitive among secular voters, while Democrats were at least competitive among regular churchgoers. And since the secular vote is roughly equal to the regular churchgoing vote, according to the last several national election exit polls, that means Republicans and their conservative base have a far bigger secular problem than their rivals have a religion problem.
How might the conservative activists conferring in Washington this week address their secular problem?
I can’t speak for all secular voters, only myself. But I would suggest it’s not an issue of language. Stripping all references of God and faith from conservative political rhetoric would only be dismissed as superficial and pandering. Sincerely conveying how faith shapes one’s views, in and of itself, does not turn off most secular voters.
One symbolic act that might be useful would be to have some conservative politicians come out of the closet and announce they are atheists or agnostics. If it was clear that conservatism fully embraced religious diversity, including those who do not worship God, that would allay concerns that conservatism is about installing a soft theocracy.
Now this is so jarringly outside conventional wisdom as to be laughable. But the numbers are correct. And people who follow religious trends in this country are worried about the fact that the fastest growing religious group in this country is the unchurched:
Since 1991, the adult population in the United States has grown by 15%. During that same period the number of adults who do not attend church has nearly doubled, rising from 39 million to 75 million – a 92% increase!
These startling statistics come from the most recent tracking study of religious behavior conducted by The Barna Group, a company that follows trends related to faith, culture and leadership in America. The latest study shows that the percentage of adults that is unchurched – defined as not having attended a Christian church service, other than for a holiday service, such as Christmas or Easter, or for special events such as a wedding or funeral, at any time in the past six months – has risen from 21% in 1991 to 34% today.
This is not to say that the unchurched have no religion or aren’t involved in religious activities, once again proving that seculars aren’t hostile to religion:
Neither is there a way, yet, to measure the impact of this increasingly restless spirit on society — in debates on cloning, prayer in schools, abortion or the death penalty, in votes for president of the nation or the local school board, in the community roles played by churches, synagogues, mosques and temples.
Look at two traditional venues of religious expression: charity and values education.
Giving USA, which tracks philanthropy, says about half of all charitable dollars go to religious purposes. Sylvia Ronsvalle of empty tomb inc., in Champaign, Ill., which studies church giving, worries that if “religion doesn’t teach the basic lessons of personal giving, where will people learn it?”
However, Carl Dudley of the Hartford (Conn.) Seminary’s Institute for Religion Research, which issued a study last year examining the nation’s 350,000 congregations, says unchurched America, for all its glorification of individuality and spiritual exploration, still puts mighty volunteer time and financial muscle into programs to help communities. Programs such as literacy training, scouting or AIDS walks “attract a lot of people who act out their faith even if they don’t confess it.”
“A huge number of people see volunteering for a soup kitchen or tutoring children as a religious activity,” Dudley says. “This is the kind of altruism nurtured by the church but not exclusive to it.”
The Republicans may want to rethink their commitment to the social conservative religious right for other reasons as well. It is limiting their ability to reach out to voters beyond their base in the south and midwest:
Attendance levels are still higher in the “Bible belt” areas – the South and Midwest – than in the Northeast and West. 54% of those in the Midwest and 51% of those in the South and attend church in a typical week, compared to 41% of those in the Northeast and 39% of those in the West. (2006)
Pastordan at Street Prophets had a great post this week discussing this very thing.
I know the Republicans won’t address this looming problem in their convention this week, mired as they are in the culture war battles that define their identity. But this is a real problem for them, like it or not, and they are going to hit a wall very soon. A large and growing group of secular religious and non-religious alike are not liking what they are seeing in the Republican Party.
I expect to see a bunch of articles on the Republican Party’s Secular Problem, very soon. Right after I return from my trip to the fifth dimension.
If you’d like to see the depth of problem the Republicans are facing, this handy map to which I’ve linked before can show you the religious make up of every state in the union.
.