JD Vance is full of it
No the Haitians in Springfield are not murdering people in their beds. CNN’s Daniel Dale with a fact check:
“I’m talking to my constituents and I’m hearing terrible things about what’s going on in Springfield, and Kamala Harris’ open-border policies have caused these problems,” Vance said. Moments later, he said, “Murders are up by 81% because of what Kamala Harris has allowed to happen to this small community.”
We looked into this claim and found it’s a good example of how statistics can be cherry-picked and misleadingly framed to serve unfounded narratives.
“During the time that I’ve been with the prosecutor’s office, which is 21 years now, we have not had any murders involving the Haitian community – as either the victims or as the perpetrators of those murders,” Daniel Driscoll, the Republican top prosecutor in Clark County, in which Springfield is the largest city, said in a Friday interview.
Vance was citing real data, but he didn’t mention what the underlying numbers are.
Spokesperson William Martin said Vance was talking about official Ohio figures showing that Springfield had five murders in 2021 and nine murders in 2023.That four-murder increase is indeed an increase of 80%. An increase from five murders one year to nine murders two years later, though, does not prove Vance’s claim that Harris and immigrants have caused a murder spike — or even that there is a current murder spike.
In small communities, Driscoll said, “if you were to have one murder one year and two murders the next year, you’ve suddenly got a 100% increase in the rate, but that’s not an appreciable difference in the number of murders you have.” He said what he looks at is “trends” — and “we’ve not seen any trend showing that the amount of murders is going up in Clark County.”
Springfield had more total murders under President Donald Trump than under Biden-Harris.
Vance said murders in Springfield have soared “because of” Harris’ policies. But a quick glance at Springfield’s murder numbers for the last three presidential terms – which are easily available online from the FBI and the state of Ohio – immediately calls his assertion into question.
President Barack Obama’s second term: 30 murders. Six in 2013; seven in 2014; 12 in 2015; five in 2016.
Trump’s term: 33 murders. Nine in 2017 (he took over from Obama on January 20 that year); 13 in 2018; three in 2019; eight in 2020.
President Joe Biden’s term through 3.5 years: 22 murders. Five in 2021 (he took over from Trump on January 20 that year); six in 2022; nine in 2023; two in the first half of 2024.
Even if you exclude the half-year 2024 data and only compare the three completed years of the Biden-Harris administration to either the first three years or last three years under the Trump administration, there have still been fewer murders under Biden-Harris.
So, if the president’s policies are causing murders, then Trump’s policies were obviously much worse. Of course, the president’s policies aren’t really responsible for murders (except to the extent that he’s been pushing unfettered gun rights) so it’s a ridiculous statement on its face. But if you’re going to make it, it’s very dishonest to cherry pick the figures to exonerate the man whose record is actually the worst one of the last three presidents.
But then this is JD Vance we’re talking about.
And by the way, there’s no reason to think that even the spike in murders that happened under Trump were caused by Haitian immigrants:
As we’ve repeatedly noted in fact checks about crime, identifying specific reasons for particular cities’ increases or decreases in any given year is notoriously difficult. And nobody has demonstrated that Haitian immigrants in particular or immigrants in general were responsible for the four additional murders in 2023 compared to 2021. (One prominent local case from 2023, in which a Haitian immigrant committed aggravated vehicular homicide and involuntary manslaughter when he accidentally crashed his minivan into a school bus and killed a child, is not classified as a murder, and the child’s father has said explicitly that it was not a murder.)Local and state officials have certainly not attributed the uptick in murder to immigrants. Driscoll described it as “luck, or a lack thereof.” And Andy Wilson, now Ohio’s public safety director under Republican Gov. Mike DeWine and formerly the Clark County prosecutor before Driscoll, told reporters this week that the main public safety issue with regard to Haitian immigrants in the state is safe driving, “not crime” and “not violence.”
There are a number of other data points on this at the link.
The influx of immigrants has caused some problems, as it would when any place has a rise in population in a fairly short period of time. Government resources are stretched, traffic, things like that. There’s a bigger upside, though. Businesses flourish, revenue rises for the town etc. This happens all the time.
We all know what the problem is. Black foreigners have come into this small insular town for work and the locals are uncomfortable with that. Some are downright racist. And Donald Trump and JD Vance and their MAGA followers are exploiting that to argue for mass round-ups, detention camps and deportation of tens of millions of people. It’s disgusting.
