IT WAS astounding enough for Washington’s political elite: last month they discovered that the man at the heart of a scandal over the planting of US propaganda in Iraqi newspapers was a dapper but unknown 30-year-old Oxford graduate who had somehow managed to land a $100 million Pentagon contract.
What is even more remarkable however, after an investigation by The Times, is that just ten years ago Christian Bailey, whose US company is under investigation for planting fake news stories in Iraqi newspapers, was a nerdy, socially awkward English school-leaver called Jozefowicz.
[…]
The journey from the Royal Grammar School, Guildford, which Mr Bailey left in 1994, to the heart of K Street in Washington, the centre of money and influence in the US capital, has been remarkably rapid. Today he has a reputation in Washington for being a socialite with links to influential Republicans. He is a helicopter and aircraft pilot and his home is in a fashionable area.
Through a Lincoln Group spokesman, Mr Bailey answered questions from The Times to help to explain how, at just 30, he landed the Pentagon as an important client. He was born Christian Martin Jozefowicz on November 28, 1975, in Kingston upon Thames, to Jerzy and Anne Jozefowicz.
[…]
In his third year at Oxford he hired an assistant to help him to run his first proper company, Linck Ltd, which sold self-help tapes. In 1998, he changed his name to Bailey. “Following his father’s death, Bailey assumed the name for family reasons, something which children commonly do,” a Lincoln Group spokesman said. In the late 1990s he moved to San Francisco to try his hand as a dotcom entrepreneur, and then to New York, where he became treasurer of the Oxonion Society, a club for intellectual Anglophiles. He became co-chairman of a networking group for young Republicans. With his Republican contacts growing, Mr Bailey moved to Washington, where he spotted a golden business opportunity: the looming war in Iraq. He formed a partnership with Paige Craig, a former US Marine who served in Iraq.
In early 2003, just before the invasion, Mr Bailey formed a Lincoln subsidiary, the Lincoln Alliance Corp, offering “tailored intelligence services [for] government clients faced with intelligence challenges”. He also formed another subsidiary, Iraqex, which won a $6 million Pentagon contract to launch “an aggressive advertising and PR campaign that will accurately inform the Iraqi people of the c oalition’s goals and gain their support”.
The big breakthrough came in June this year when the Pentagon awarded the Lincoln Group a contract worth up to $100 million over five years to support the US military’s “joint psychological operations”, known as “psyops”.
This review of John Yoo’s book in the New York Review of Books illuminated something that I hadn’t fully understood before:
Few lawyers have had more influence on President Bush’s legal policies in the “war on terror” than John Yoo. This is a remarkable feat, because Yoo was not a cabinet official, not a White House lawyer, and not even a senior officer within the Justice Department. He was merely a mid-level attorney in the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel with little supervisory authority and no power to enforce laws. Yet by all accounts, Yoo had a hand in virtually every major legal decision involving the US response to the attacks of September 11, and at every point, so far as we know, his advice was virtually always the same— the president can do whatever the president wants.
I hadn’t realized that Yoo was not a senior officer in the justice department. I guess I just assumed that he was quite high level. This makes me wonder if we are looking at another case of stovepiping and cherry-picking.
We know now that the pre-war WMD findings were subject to extreme pressure to conform to the administration’s desire to substantiate their claims of an Iraqi threat. It looks like they may have done something similar with the legal findings supporting the president’s desire to seize unprecedented power. They relied exclusively on the one guy who could be counted on to tell the president he could do anything he wanted.
The internal battles between and within the CIA, pentagon, state department and the white house have come to light because of the glaring reality that there were no WMD found. A mistake like that forces information out into the public domain as people step up to defend themselves. Up to now, despite a lot of controversy, that has not happened with the Justice Department. Perhaps it never will. It’s always possible that the administration never asked anyone but John Yoo and Alberto Gonzales for advice, both of whom they knew would radically expand presidential power. But if there was any dissension within the Justice Department, it may be time for certain fed-up lawyers to step up and set the record straight if they value their reputations.
This NSA spying scandal is the tipping point, in my opinion. It’s not the worst of the legal atrocities (I would argue that the sickening finding on torture remains the gold standard) but the culmination of all these revelations show that this president understood 9/11 to be a threat so dire that his vow to preserve and protect the constitution had been superceded by a new vow to protect the American people by any means necessary.
I know that the fevered warbloggers agree that the 9/11 attacks were the opening salvo in a war in which civilization itself is under attack by an unimaginable, all powerful evil. Others, not so much. To many of us who spent our childhoods diving under our desks in nuclear drills, the idea that the oceans had always protected us and this was the most frightening threat the world has ever known is ridiculous.
Frightened people overreacted to 9/11 and sought out people who would justify their actions. (All you have to do is look at the My Pet Goat footage of a paralyzed leader in a time of crisis to know it’s true.) John Yoo, with his radical, untested theories was there to provide them. The question now is whether there are any lawyers in the Justice department at the time who presented opposing views. If there were, perhaps these hearings won’t be the bust we are all expecting them to be.
I don’t know how many of you are watching CNN today, but something terrible has happened. It has been taken over by the writers of Republican Hallmark cards.
The man who performed in the Dunkin Donuts commercials died over the week-end, leaving a hole in our hearts. Puppies are tearfully reunited with their masters. Saxby Chambliss and Carol Lin are weeping together over baby Noor. Military moms keep a stiff upper lip. All morning, over and over again.
And right now Carol Lin is implying that it’s disrespectful to veterans for a man to put up a sign that says “Remember The Fallen Veterans” (with the numbers) next to a recruiting center. She says that Iraq veterans are angry about it.
Who says that the Clinton News Network doesn’t report the good news?
Matthew Yglesias points out that William Kristol is acting dumb, which he is. This ridiculous excuse that Bush had to act quickly in the days after 9/11 to “perteckt thea Murican peepul” makes no sense at all in light of the fact that the administration continues to do it more than four years later.
I would also point out that all this nonsense about how the administration couldn’t ask the pansy ass congress to amend the law because they wouldn’t appreciate the administration’s need for unfettered power, neglects the fact that since January of 2003, the congress has been a rubber stamp herd of invertabrate GOP sheep who would do anything their Dear Leader required when it comes to the GWOT. If they couldn’t get that congress to pass this vital change in the FISA law then they need to take it up with Bill Frist and Tom DeLay. (And if the administration didn’t think they could get the invertebrate herd of GOP sheep to do something you really have to ask yourself what in Gawd’s name they wanted them to do.)
But there is, of course, much more to this than just congressional bedwetters not having the guts to defend the nation from islamofascists.
In mid-2004, concerns about the program expressed by national security officials, government lawyers and a judge prompted the Bush administration to suspend elements of the program and revamp it.
For the first time, the Justice Department audited the N.S.A. program, several officials said. And to provide more guidance, the Justice Department and the agency expanded and refined a checklist to follow in deciding whether probable cause existed to start monitoring someone’s communications, several officials said.
A complaint from Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly, the federal judge who oversees the Federal Intelligence Surveillance Court, helped spur the suspension, officials said. The judge questioned whether information obtained under the N.S.A. program was being improperly used as the basis for F.I.S.A. wiretap warrant requests from the Justice Department, according to senior government officials. While not knowing all the details of the exchange, several government lawyers said there appeared to be concerns that the Justice Department, by trying to shield the existence of the N.S.A. program, was in danger of misleading the court about the origins of the information cited to justify the warrants.
“…concerns about the program expressed by national security officials, government lawyers and a judge.”
Clearly, this program has had problems even by the standards of an administration that thinks the president has the inherant constitutional right to ignore specific laws passed by congress if he deems it necessary in order to “perteckt thea Murikan peepul.” That bar is mightly low and yet there still were problems that were subject to suspension and revamping.
I realize that we are just supposed to trust this president in spite of the fact that he has repeatedly and blatantly lied to our faces, but I would think that this would pique the interest of even the most vociferous bush defenders. If the Ashcroft Justice department had issues with this program that ought to be enough even for Bill Kristol to question its legality.
After all, as I have written before, Bill has a history of holding presidents to very high standards:
The lines have been drawn. What Republicans now need is the nerve to fight. They must stand for, to quote Helprin again, “the rejection of intimidation, the rejection of lies, the rejection of manipulation, the rejection of disingenuous pretense, and a revulsion for the sordid crimes and infractions the president has brought to his office.” (William Kristol, Weekly Standard, May 25, 1998, page 18.)
Of course the president in question was secretly surveilling Monica Lewinsky’s underwear, which was a terrible threat to the nation. Kristol had no choice but to throw the book at him.
Over pictures of people who are handling rocket launchers and wearing ski masks with strange suits, the braindead Brit who is filling in for Cavuto today asked John Podhoretz if the New York Times should be charged with treason.
Charging a newspaper with treason seems like a stretch, but I could be wrong. I think the proper legal charge would be sedition. But implying that the New York Times staffers are jihadis seems a bit inflammatory to me.
Steve Benen of the Carpetbagger Report is filling in for Kevin over at Political Animal and he has an interesting post up about the new movement to deny automatic citizenship to babies born in the United States. It’s one of those Lou Dobbs obsessions that’s gaining ground among the wingnuts.
His post reminded me of another Dobbsian boogeyman that I’ve been meaning to discuss which will have a very pernicious effect on politics if it is enacted: the anti-immigrant fanatics want to change the census to only include citizens. And they quite openly say it is because they want to change the make-up of the congress.
This is another one of those Karl Rove specials. It’s ostensibly about the scourge of illegal immigration, and plays perfectly into people’s cultural anxieties, but it’s really about structural political change.
Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson’s exceedingly interesting book Off Center talks (among other things) about how the Republicans have gone about creating a “backlash proof” system in which Republican seats are safe no matter how unpopular their beliefs or voting records are in the country at large. It’s a huge part of their long term strategy to change the political system in their favor. The book doesn’t mention this specifically, but it’s exactly the kind of thing that Karl and Tom would try to push to assure a long term majority.
This article in the Arizona Republic, shows that the estimate is that the seats lost would mostly be in Democratic states:
The U.S. Constitution should be changed so that only legal citizens can be counted when determining a state’s number of congressional districts, a Republican lawmaker argued Tuesday.
“This is about fundamental fairness and the American ideal . . . of one man or one woman, one vote,” said Rep. Candice Miller, R-Mich, testifying to a U.S. House subcommittee on federalism and the census.
The 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution requires that, “Representatives of the (U.S.) House shall be apportioned among the several states according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each state . . . “
But Miller, backed by 29 House co-sponsors, is pushing a vote on an amendment that would change the word “persons” to “citizens,” excluding non-citizens as a factor in determining how many of the 435 U.S. House seats each state gets.
According to the 2000 census, there were more than 18 million non-citizens in the country, representing about 6.6 percentof the nation’s total population. They included as many as 8 million undocumented immigrants, along with guest workers, foreign students or others on temporary visas.
[…]
Recent studies, including one in May by the Congressional Research Office, show that had only citizens been counted in the most recent apportionment based on the 2000 Census, California – with more than 5.4 million non-citizens — would have six fewer U.S. House seats.
Texas, New York and Florida would each have one seat less.
Lower-immigration states like Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, Wisconsin and Indiana would each have one more seat.
There could be a shift of 10 seats affecting 15 states if non-citizens are excluded in 2010, according to early projections by Polidata, a Lake Ridge, Va., firm that analyzes demographic information.
Arizona would not lose any of its seats. The state’s 462,239 non-citizen residents represent 9 percent of its total population – the seventh highest percentage in the nation. However, even if these individuals were not counted, Arizona’s population would still be high enough to still qualify for eight congressional seats in 2010.
But removing non-citizens from those calculations would have impact within the state. Arizona’s congressional district lines would have to be drawn much differently than they are now to equalize “citizen” representation.
For instance, based on their existing congressional districts, Rep. Rick Renzi, a Republican, is currently representing 620,000 “citizen” residents in his largely rural district, while Rep Ed Pastor, a Democrat, represents 480,000 citizen residents in his central-southwest Valley district. If non-citizens are no longer be counted , both Renzi’ and Pastor’s districts – as with all of Arizona’s congressional districts — would have to be redrawn so that they have more-comparable citizen numbers.
… an estimated 10 million legal permanent residents in the nation who are eligible to become citizens are Latino, and that 77 percent of these Latinos live in California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey or Arizona.
While not disputing there are large undocumented populations in these states, Gonzalez said, “the reality is that these states also have hundreds of thousands of immigrants who are law-abiding citizens, have played by the rules and are preparing to become full participants in this nation.”
Kenneth Prewitt, director of the Census bureau from 1998-2000, warned Miller’s amendment would lead to less cooperation by immigrants who are already too often wary of census takers, and a less complete and less accurate census.
I think it’s pretty clear which party would benefit from this, don’t you? It’s true that a couple of upper midwest swing states might gain a seat or two, but for the most part it’s the big blue population centers that will suffer. And you can bet that the necessary gerrymandering that comes with such a scheme will be well planned to take care of Republicans in states in which immigrant communities suddenly “disappear” from the body politic.
These are the little landmines that Karl and company have set throughout our political structure that are going to have reverberations for decades. Right now the immigration debate is dividing the GOP more than the Republicans and Democrats. But who knows where things will be in a couple of years? Karl and company play the long game and bet that it’s always better to institutionalize their strict numerical advantage.
Short term they may be trying to play to the hispanic vote, but ultimately it’s all about solidifying their base to such an extent that they never have to do more than win a few showy races to maintain a majority. Big business doesn’t care one bit about whether legal and illegal immigrants are represented in the census. If it takes the heat off of the cheap labor debate, they would be perfectly happy to support it. And this feeds the angry white vote nicely.
This is how you keep a political machine well oiled and working even if you wind up spending quality time in a federal prison. The mob works this way too.
The Kippies have been announced and each one is more perfect than the rest. I do have one quibble, however. My personal favorite, Chris Matthews, didn’t win Best Wank for his repeated exhortation that a man, a real man, a manly man filled with masculinity, be sent in to save the day in New Orleans. Is there a bigger public wank in history than this?
Will the most powerful vice president in American history become the man who ramrods the rise of the new South and with it a legacy that could promote a draft for a Cheney presidency? The question is a big one. Is Cheney charging down South to serve as President Bush’s executioner or full-fledged viceroy?
[…]
“a tough guy…smart politician.. trying to figure out how to get his president out of a jam… smart guy, tough warrior..aware that now that he’s put his [huge] boots on the ground he has a stake in this. How big a foot is he going to land on this issue.”
Fo shizzle my nizzle
I’m sorry that Chris didn’t win a Kippie this year despite his many heroic paeans to Republican manly manness. But then Cary Grant never won an Oscar either. Sometimes life isn’t fair. (As with so many of the greats, maybe the problem is that he just makes it look so easy.)
Chris can take heart that he earned the Media Matters “misinformer of the year” so it’s not like his stand-out performance went unrewarded. And there’s always next year — all the commentators are telling us on a loop that Bush is poised for a comeback, and there is no greater chronicler of the rise of the codpiece than our man Chris.
Jane appropriately excoriates the WaPo ombudsman, Deborah Howell, for her he said/she said prescription for even more confusing and useless reporting. I think this column may just be the perfect example of everything that’s wrong with modern journalism.
Howell comments on a report about military recruiting that stated that more recruits are coming from low income and rural families:
Numbers aren’t just facts. They can be interpreted in many ways, even if they come from the same or similar sources.
Ann Scott Tyson, a respected military reporter just back from Iraq, wrote in a front-page story Nov. 4 that “newly released Pentagon demographic data show that the military is leaning heavily for recruits on economically depressed rural areas where youths’ need for jobs may outweigh the risks of going to war.”
[…]
The story, which was largely based on Pentagon data, included some analysis done by the National Priorities Project (NPP), a liberal-leaning think tank that questions the war in Iraq. The NPP also used Pentagon, census and Zip code data. A different analysis, released by the conservative Heritage Foundation a few days later, was reported by other media outlets.
In looking at the story, I talked to Curt Gilroy, who, as director of accession policy for the secretary of defense, has oversight of all active-duty recruiting; Tim Kane, a Heritage researcher; Betty Maxfield, demographer of the Army; Bruce Orvis, director of the Manpower and Training Program at the Rand Corp.’s Arroyo Center, and Robert Brandewei, director of the Defense Manpower Data Center in Monterey, Calif.
All said the story and NPP analysis lacked context because they did not report trends over the past several years and did not look at “nationally representative data” or the entire recruit population. A statement from Gilroy and Maxfield said that “incomes and socioeconomic status of recruits’ families closely mirror the U.S. population. These findings are contrary to those” in Tyson’s article.
[…]
My bottom line on polls and surveys, no matter what kind: Look for the widest context. Ask as many experts as possible what the numbers mean. Numbers can be right but not tell the full story, and that’s the case with the article on recruiting.
There are those who think with their heads and those who know with their hearts… But the gut’s where the truth comes from…I know some of you may not trust your gut yet. But with my help you will. The truthiness is that anyone can report the news to you, but I promise to feel the news at you.
Unfortunately for Howell, her “clarification” only leads to a muddy, unfathomable mess. After reading her further reporting, you have absolutely no idea what the truth is. She should have written her cute little opener to say “numbers are partisan and have an agenda. If you are a supporter of the administration you can believe the pentagon and Heritage analysts. If you are a liberal traitor, you can believe this crappy NPP think tank. It’s all about choice.”
Howell is promoting that absolute worst kind of he said/she said journalism in this piece. She does not recommend any kind of context in the reporting that might illuminate the Pentagon or Heritage agendas, such as the trouble the military has had with recruiting or the different sales pitches that the military uses in different areas. She does not seek out an academic statistician who might be able to look at all the statistics and sort them out in some way so that readers could come to a reasonable conclusion.
And for someone who so believes in telling all sides of a story, I think it might have been helpful if she told her readers what prompted her to write on this subject in the first place, don’t you? Was it, perhaps, a complaint from the pentagon which pointed out the conservative Heritage Foundation’s contradictory figures? (We know it wasn’t average readers, whom she and others at the Post consider nuisances.)
I do not know if the WaPo’s new ombudsman is political but she is remarkably willing to assume liberal bias in the Post’s reporting and recommend a “counterbalance” of right wing bullshit to even it out. In fact, this seems to be the Post’s answer to everything, lately.
As we have all written about ad nauseum in the blogs these last few years, this is what we hate about mainstream journalism these days. This idea that “numbers aren’t just facts.” Yes, they fucking well are. Numbers are numbers. They don’t have feelings, they aren’t obscure. They are what they are. They can be used in different ways, yes, but the job of journalists isn’t just to point out all the different interpretations and let the reader choose on the basis of which political party they belong to, it’s to reveal how they being used in different ways and why.
I already know that the Heritage Foundation and the pentagon have an agenda. I take Howell at her word that the NPP is a liberal think tank that is against the war. I don’t give a shit about any of that. What I would like to know is whether or not the military is recruiting more from lower income and rural areas and if so, why?
The editor of the paper defended the original piece by saying this:
Post National Editor Michael Abramowitz said, “Ann set out to tell the story of what kind of young people are joining today’s military. Obviously the armed services draw from a range of demographic, income and ethnic groups. The Pentagon’s own numbers indicate that that the military is drawing disproportionally from rural and southern communities, and from families with slightly lower incomes than the population in general.
“The numbers also show a close correlation between the unemployment rate and recruiting. These are the phenomena that Ann accurately described in her story. While we did note some trends, such as the growth in wealthier recruits, we probably could have done a better job highlighting some of the nuances in recruiting patterns and providing more context. But the overall thrust of the story still seems accurate and sound to us.”
That’s not good enough for Howell, whose further consultations with pentagon, Heritage and Rand analysts report a bunch of arcane gobblodygook that I defy Howell or anyone else to interpret.
But then, I guess that’s the point. In order to be fair one must go out of one’s way not to tell the truth. The facts, after all, are biased.
Atrios links to Novakula’s column today in which he discusses Trent Lott’s agnizing over whether to seek another term. I think we’ve all wondered if Katrina would have an impact on the GOP in Mississippi and Alabama and this may be the test. (New Orleans’ African American disapora is very likely to result in a stronger Louisiana GOP) I suspect he thinks it’s time to cash out. They’ll never be a better opportunity.
Atrios also highlights Novak’s last line which I also think is the most interesting aspect of the piece:
When George W. stood aside while Trent Lott was tossed out, I wrote on Dec. 23, 2002, that the secret liberal theme behind his defenestration was that “the GOP’s Southern base, the bedrock of its national election victories, is an illegitimate legacy from racist Dixiecrats.
Now, three years later, that bedrock may be eroding.
I don’t know why he thinks it was secret. That view is right out in the open and it happens to be true. Both the Republicans and Democrats have been talking about the southern strategy for decades. (Perhaps Novak thinks the mass defections from Democrat to Republican in the south directly on the heels of the voting rights act of 1964 was a coincidence?)
In any case, that’s not what’s interesting. It’s that he thinks the “bedrock” of the southern GOP base may be eroding. Personally, I doubt it, at least in any significant sense. However, many of the structural problems conservative writer Christopher Caldwell predicted in his famous contrarian article “the Southern Captivity of the GOP” from 1998 could be coming to fruition.
9/11 obscured them but the problems remain. Here are some excerpts from that article:
The party’s 1994 majority came thanks to a gain of nineteen seats in the South. In 1996 Republicans picked up another six seats in the Old Confederacy. But that only makes their repudiation in the rest of the country the more dramatic. The party has been all but obliterated in its historical bastion of New England, where it now holds just four of twenty-three congressional seats. The Democrats, in fact, dominate virtually the entire Northeast. The Republicans lost seats in 1996 all over the upper Midwest — Michigan, Wisconsin (two seats), Iowa, and Ohio (two seats). Fatally, they lost seats in all the states on the West Coast. Their justifiable optimism about the South aside, in 1996 it became clear that the Democratic Party was acquiring regional strongholds of equal or greater strength.
[…]
The Republican Party is increasingly a party of the South and the mountains. The southernness of its congressional leaders — Speaker Newt Gingrich, of Georgia; House Majority Leader Dick Armey and House Majority Whip Tom DeLay, of Texas; Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, of Mississippi; Senate Majority Whip Don Nickles, of Oklahoma — only heightens the identification. There is a big problem with having a southern, as opposed to a midwestern or a California, base. Southern interests diverge from those of the rest of the country, and the southern presence in the Republican Party has passed a “tipping point,” at which it began to alienate voters from other regions.
As southern control over the Republican agenda grows, the party alienates even conservative voters in other regions. The prevalence of right-to-work laws in southern states may be depriving Republicans of the socially conservative midwestern trade unionists whom they managed to split in the Reagan years, and sending Reagan Democrats back to their ancestral party in the process. Anti-government sentiment makes little sense in New England, where government, as even those who hate it will concede, is neither remote nor unresponsive.
[…]
Grover Norquist, the president of Americans for Tax Reform, … and insists that libertarians and moralists can still cohabit. And since Norquist is a key — if not the key — adviser to Newt Gingrich, his interpretation can be taken as a semi-official Republican understanding of what’s left of Ronald Reagan’s electorate. “The Reagan coalition is the Leave Us Alone coalition,” Norquist says. “Tax activists want their paychecks left alone. Pro-family people want their kids left alone. Ralph Reed’s constituents are not interested in running other people’s lives. They don’t care what odd people do in San Francisco on Saturday afternoon.”
For his part, Reed, formerly the executive director of the Christian Coalition and now a Georgia-based political and public-affairs consultant, thinks the two wings get along as well as ever. Looking at the Republican field for President in 2000, he says, “Traditional supply-siders like Steve Forbes are enthusiastically embracing the social dogma of the party. Lamar Alexander is moving to the right, guys like John Ashcroft are picking up steam, John Kasich is talking about faith in God. I see a holistic message developing.” To an extent Reed is right: this is not 1963 or 1964, when the Rockefeller wing and the Goldwater wing fought an intraparty civil war. Yet there is something more troubling going on. Every Republican candidate now has to “make his bones,” to prove his good faith by declaring his unequivocal willingness to alienate the “elites” of the country. Describing the Christian right to a reporter last fall, the former Washington congressman Randy Tate, who is now the executive director of the Christian Coalition, said, “They don’t just want to be given crumbs off the table and taken for granted.” Far from proving Republican tolerance, the rapprochement Reed points to is merely the sound of the Republicans’ cosmopolitan wing crying “Uncle.”
This southern takeover is part of a natural, if paradoxical, transformation. It parallels the way the Goldwater debacle of 1964 destabilized the Democratic Party — by sending alienated northern Republican progressives into the Democrats’ ranks. These progressives joined with northern urbanites to forge a party that was more to their liking, though it was too liberal for the Democratic Party’s stalwart southern conservatives — and, eventually, too liberal for the nation as a whole. In like fashion, Democratic excesses since the seventies may have destabilized the Republican Party by chasing those southerners into the fold, transforming the Republican Party into a machine that is steadily becoming too conservative for the country.
There has always been tension between the Republicans’ constituent wings. What long masked it was the Cold War. The Reaganite party was never a two-part but always a three-part coalition, of social conservatives, economic conservatives, and foreign-policy hawks. The hawks’ group was minuscule, but it happened that their passion (anti-communism) was shared by Christians and capitalists alike.
[…]
When the Republicans can no longer promise tax cuts, they’re left with only the most abrasive aspects of the Reagan message, kept under wraps throughout the 1980s: the southern morals business. If the Republicans didn’t believe in shrinking government, they didn’t believe in the freedom that it was supposed to promote — which made it much harder to argue that their moral agenda was being advanced in the name of live and let live. And what did they have besides the moral agenda?
The Republicans are too conservative: their deference to their southern base is persuading much of the country that their vision is a sour and crabbed one. But they’re too liberal, too, as their all-out retreat from shrinking the government indicates. At the same time, the Republicans have passed none of the reforms that ingratiated the party with the “radical middle.” The Republicans’ biggest problem is not their ideology but their lack of one. Stigmatized as rightists, behaving like leftists, and ultimately standing for nothing, they’re in the worst of all possible worlds.
There is messaging “gold” in that article now that it is crystal clear that the Republicans are not the party of small government and it lies here:
If the Republicans didn’t believe in shrinking government, they didn’t believe in the freedom that it was supposed to promote — which made it much harder to argue that their moral agenda was being advanced in the name of live and let live.
How can Norquist’s “leave us alone” coalition exist in a party that supports the government spying on its citizens and supports intrusion into a family’s most difficult medical decisions? How can a “leave us alone” coalition support a president who acts like a king? How can decent people who believe in moral values continue to work hard and support a party that is corrupt to its core?
They can’t.
Caldwell concluded with this:
Their party is now directionless, with only two skills to recommend it: first, identifying and prosecuting the excesses of its opponents; second, rigging the campaign-finance system to protect its incumbency long after it has ceased having any ideas that would justify incumbency. The Republican Party is an obsolescent one. It may continue to rule, disguised as a majority by electoral legerdemain. But it will be a long time before the party is again able to rule from a place in Americans’ hearts.
They gave up trying to rule from a place in America’s heart some time ago and are now ruling from some place in America’s gut. Fear (or the fun “horror movie” version of it anyway) is what they use to keep the disparate threads of Norquist’s coalition together. I think, however, Bush’s misdhandling of Iraq and Katrina — not to mention the ridiculous overplaying of the terrorist threat — may have dampened their prospects for a repeat of their successful communist fearmongering of the past.
I think that Caldwell’s thesis is proven by the fact that Bush won so narrowly in 2004 and that they were unable to gain any Senate seats outside of deep red territory. They couldn’t win any house seats outside of the rigged Texas gerrymander. Bush’s popular vote margin came from turnout in the deep south, not because of any gains elsewhere. I ask you, if a Republican incumbent couldn’t win big in that election, when we were just three years from a major terrorist attack and deeply engaged in wars in two countries, then what will it take?
They’ve got the south for the time being. The question for them is if they can legitimately win anywhere else. If Novak is right and they are starting to lose their grip a little bit there then they’ve reached their high water mark.
I can’t imagine a blogosphere without Body and Soul, can you?
It’s common wisdom that this administration has, from the outset, and right up to the present, made a habit of accusing others of what it is guilty of. I’ve always thought of that as just an effective technique — put your opposition on the defense, so that, at best, no one notices what you’re doing, and, at worst, people excuse your crimes because the other side supposedly does it too.
But when self-described Christians are choosing to replicate the history of their faith in reverse, casting themselves in the villains’ place, while somehow still claiming the innocence of holy victims, it looks more like pathology than political spin. They remind me of Alex in A Clockwork Orange, aroused by Christian iconography, fantasizing himself as a Roman soldier. Then throw in something too twisted for Alex –fantasizing himself, simultaneously, as a martyr.