If it feels as though the new Trump administration is taking shape at warp speed, that’s because it is. It’s unusual for a new administration to be announcing all these cabinet and staff nominations in such rapid succession, but that’s part of the Project 2025 manifesto to hit the ground running as fast as possible. And they’re using the Steve Bannon tactic of flooding the zone to keep the media and the opposition off balance.
Trump’s getting awards from Fox News, gallivanting around Paris with his best buddy, naming one billionaire after another to his administration and giving his family members anything they want. He has even named his son’s (apparently) ex-fiance Kimberly Guilfoyle to be Ambassador to Greece. And for any recalcitrant Senators who still believe they have a say in any of it, he’s bringing the hammer down.
Take for example the case of Nebraska Senator Joni Ernst, a former female combat officer who had some serious reservations about Trump’s choice to be Secretary of Defense. After all, as someone who has experienced sexual assault she was logically a bit disturbed by the rape allegations against him as well as his recent comments that he doesn’t think women should be allowed in combat.
Well, Trump and his henchmen made sure Ernst understood that they were not going to stand for any guff from her. Politico reported:
In recent days, allies of Trump adopted an approach that is not novel for the president-elect and his followers: Make life extremely uncomfortable for anyone who dares to oppose him. The swarm of MAGA attacks that Sen. Joni Ernst has experienced is a warning of what’s in store for others who express skepticism of his personnel choices.
Hegseth “became a cause,” said a Trump ally who was granted anonymity to speak freely. “Not even for the official Trump operation, but the movement who is going apeshit for him.”..
“Joni, I’m told,” said a Trump ally with insider knowledge of the transition process, “got the message loud and clear.”
On Monday Ernst said that she will now support Hegseth through the process and demanded that any of the women he assaulted come forward and testify against him or she will discount their accusations. She, of all people, knows exactly what will happen to them if they do.
Whatever resistance the Republican senators may have felt toward Trump’s autocratic demands has fizzled in the face of Dear Leader deploying MAGA threats. It is a feature of Trump’s Republican Party. Recall what Senator Mitt Romney biographer McKay Coppins told CNN when he was asked if Romney was planning to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris:
“Mitt Romney knows that he would be on that enemies list. He’s worried about protecting his family. He said, ‘You know, I have 25 grandkids. How do you protect 25 grandkids?’”
Let’s just say the pressure is intense and most of these GOP officials apparently value their seats more than they value their integrity in any case. The way to succeed in Republican politics these days is to follow orders, no questions asked.
So, it appears that Trump is most likely going to get his way and every miscreant nominee will be confirmed. How long they last is another story. If you recall Trump’s first term, the turnover was historic. It’s hard to imagine that most of them will go the distance.
From what we can tell, they plan to do as much as possible through executive orders, many of which are bound to be at least delayed through litigation. But when it comes to appropriations there’s no getting around the congress. Even if Trump and his Office of Management and Budget wizard Russell Vought are able to employ “impoundment” (the currently illegal process by which the president can spend appropriated funds contrary to the congress’s negotiated agreement ) they still have to get the budget passed through legislation. And that may just mess up Trump’s first 100 days in ways they can’t anticipate.
Over the weekend, Trump’s senior adviser and deportation zealot Stephen Miller appeared on Fox News Sunday where he told Maria Bartiromo that Senate Majority Leader John Thune ,R-S.D., and Sen. Lindsey Graham R-S.C., promised the president they can get the full funding for his massive deportation plan done by early February, weeks before the continuing budget resolution from last year expires in March. The plan is to do two big bills through reconciliation (which means they’re filibuster proof) the first being some kind of border/energy/defense bill that could cost in the neighborhood of $120 billion and the second down the road to extend and expand the Trump tax cuts along with whatever other draconian plans they have to destroy the health, safety and economic security of the American people.
According to Axios, Thune wants this first bill to be budget neutral or negative and is thinking about reversing the Biden administration’s student loan relief to pay for it. You have to wonder if he’s consulted with the shadow president Elon Musk about whether that’s going to be ok. After all, he’s working on reducing the government altogether by $2 trillion so he probably needs to use that student loan relief for that. Who’s Trump going to choose?
Meanwhile, there’s the House of Representatives which, the last I heard, still has something to say about all this and they will be operating with a one vote margin during the first two months of the new administration. They are already reportedly chafing at the Musk “DOGE” contraption since budgeting really is their bailiwick and they want to do the cutting themselves. Apparently, the Rep. Jason Smith, R-Mo., who chairs the House Ways and Means Committee, insists there will just be one big reconciliation bill later in the year.
And then there’s the House Freedom Caucus which is never satisfied and almost always refuses to take yes for an answer. If there is any negotiation to be done, and one expects there will be with such a small margin and every member having leverage, we can expect that they will take their demands to places even Donald Trump may fear to tread.
So yes, Republicans are all cowed by Trump and his MAGA army and none of them are operating out of principle. You might think that means Trump will have smooth sailing. But he is a chaos agent and it’s very difficult to know if he even understands what he’s saying half the time. His inner circle already has competing priorities and half the people he’s chosen are without any experience while the other half have agendas that clash with one another. The two houses of congress are already butting heads and there is dissension within each of them.
The bottom line is that when it comes to these complicated budgetary matters this administration will have no leadership at all. I don’t doubt that they are going to do a whole lot of very bad things and it’s entirely possible that the worst of it, the deportation plan, will pass early on just as Stephen Miller says it will. But the rest of it is going to be a shitshow with possible government shutdowns and speaker challenges and the most powerful man in the world eventually facing down the richest man in the world when their egos finally can’t fit in the oval office at the same time. If you have any spare change, you might want to invest in popcorn futures.
Salon
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