Digby's Hullabaloo Posts

Time Machine

I had a very spirited conversation this morning in which I had to convince a number of Kerry supporters that polls this close don’t mean shit. They were feeling frustrated that the horserace consistently shows Bush slightly ahead and their gut says that it must mean he is going to win. I wish I had had the following post from DonkeyRising handy, which is pointed at those same nervous Democrats. I’m printing it out for future reference:

It’s time to revisit the thrilling polls of yesteryear to get a sense of just how much the polls in 2000 tended to overestimate Bush’s strength and underestimate Gore’s. I believe, for reasons I have discussed at length, the polls are likely overestimating Bush’s strength this year as well. But this year, Kerry is doing better in the polls than Gore did at the equivalent point in the 2000 race. Therefore, if current polls are overestimating Bush’s strength by the same amount as in 2000, Kerry should wind up doing better than Gore on election day–and Gore won the popular vote by half a point. And that’s not even factoring in the likelihood that, with Bush as the incumbent, Kerry will receive the bulk of undecided voters’ support on election day.

So let’s take that stroll down memory lane.

Start with this nugget from Alan Abramowitz:

During the final week of the 2000 campaign, 43 national polls were released, including multiple releases by several polling organizations such as Gallup. George Bush led in 39 polls, Al Gore in 2. Bush’s average lead in the polls was 3.6 percent. Something to keep in mind when people complain that so far (two days) in this final week Kerry has “only” had small leads in the DCorps poll, the Harris Poll and the WP/ABC tracking poll twice (LVs and RVs)!

And here are some readings from specific 2000 polls:

1. The ABC tracking poll averaged a 4 point Bush lead in the last week and its final poll had a 3 point Bush lead.

2. Bloomberg News final poll (October 29) had a 3 point Bush lead.

3. Final Time poll (October 26) had a 6 point Bush lead.

4. Gallup’s tracking poll had Bush ahead by an average of 4 points in the final week and by 2 points in its final poll.

5. Marist College’s final poll (November 2) gave Bush a 5 point lead.

6. Final NBC/WSJ poll (November 5) had Bush up by 3 and their mid-October poll had him up by 6.

7. Final Newsweek poll (November 2) had Bush up by 2 and their October 27 poll had him up by 8.

8. Final Pew Research poll had Bush up by 2.

9. A November 4 CBS/NYT poll had Bush up by 5 (though the final CBS poll was dead-on, with a 1 point Gore lead).

10. Final ICR poll had Bush up by 2.

11. Voter.com Battleground survey (this year called GWU Battleground) averaged an 8 point Bush lead in the final week and its final poll gave Bush a 5 point lead.

12. TIPP tracking poll gave Bush a average 6 point lead in the final week and a final poll lead of 2 points.

13. Prior to its well-known final reading of a 2 point Gore lead, Zogby’s tracking poll gave Bush an average 3 point lead in the final week.

14. Final Hotline poll (November 5) gave Bush a 3 point lead.

If anyone thinks that Democrats are less enthusiastic and motivated than they were in 2000, they are kidding themselves. As 2000 showed, polling is an imprecise science. When they’re this close you just put your head down and get out the vote.

No Surrender

I don’t know how many of you have ABC News Now, but if you do, tune it in. They are showing the entire Kerry rally in Madison. Springsteen is singing No Surrender as we speak. Kerry’s about to come on. It’s one of those rare hair on the back of your neck political moments.

It’s happening.

Spin On This

I just saw Marc Racicot babble like a two year old on ABC News Now when confronted with Rudy Giuliani’s footage blaming the troops for the looting of munitions on Good Morning America. They really need to work on those talking points. This didn’t look good.

Sam Donaldson wryly noted that nobody is really blaming the troops. As it was in Vietnam, the blame lies with the policy makers. hah.

Who’s Your Daddy

Finally we have an explanation for Dick Morris.

On an isolated Indonesian island, scientists have discovered skeletons of a previously unknown human species — tiny, Hobbit-sized figures who lived among dwarf elephants and giant lizards as recently as 12,000 years ago.

The Mojo

There must be something in the water this year in Beantown. The Yankee machine had the Sox down and they battled their way back and back and back to get into the series. And then they won with authority, dammit!

That righteous Boston mojo took them all the way and it’s going to take John Kerry right through next Tuesday. And he’s going to win with the same decisiveness that the Red Sox won the series. No bullshit and no question about who won.

And a certain faux Texan is going to get a chance to run for the office he always wanted — baseball commissioner.

I’m Joining The Republic Party

With an appeal like this, who can resist?

Listen, before I want to say something, I’m traveling with a guest and a friend who represents thousands of people all across this country who are affiliated with the Democrat Party.

In fact, I believe my opponent is running away from some of the great traditions of the Democrat Party.

The Democrat Party has also a great tradition of defending the defenseless.

If you’re a Democrat, and your dreams and goals are not found in the far left wing of the Democrat Party, I’d be honored to have your vote.

Those Republics sure know how to reach across the aisle.

Because One Must

Today, I would like to join my online brethren over at Slate in endorsing John Kerry, as distasteful as that particular chore is. Sadly, one doesn’t have much choice considering what we have to deal with. I only wish that the nominees could be more like, well… me. But that would be too much to ask so I will hold my aristocratic nose and vote for the lesser of two losers. Again.

You see, I am a beltway “independent” which allows me to criticize everyone and take responsibility for nothing at all. I would never actually vote for a Republican mind you — how could I align myself with all that tacky Nascar and gay bashing business? But, neither can I associate myself with the Democratic party what with its stubborn insistence on not being exactly like me in every way.

As a beltway independent, then, I can safely vote against the Republicans without ever having to compromise even one of my pet issues in order that anything actually gets accomplished. And, there’s no need to sully my clean hands with those tawdry fights against the opposition. Whatever I don’t like I blame on Democratic weakness and perfidy, thereby proving to the Republicans that I am independent enough to agree with them on a least that one issue if nothing else.

John Kerry, sadly, does certain things with which I disagree and I find that unacceptable in a politician. And even worse, instead of being as dazzlingly exciting as say…me, he is serious and plodding as are so many of these lowly politicians who cater to the unwashed hoi polloi. Frankly, it’s just a bit stomach churning to see a brahmin behaving as if he cares about what they want and need when we know that he couldn’t possibly.

Still, what choice to we really have? George W. Bush has made a hash out everything so even someone uninspiring and thick will just have to do.

Vote for John Kerry. He’s slightly better than that cretin George W. Bush but not nearly as perfect as I am.

FYI: Blogger is very bloggered so posting is by the grace of the goddess

Trick Or Treat

FAUX News is having a baby over Drudge’s screaming headline:

ABCNEWS HOLDS TERROR WARNING VIDEO

The terrorist claims on tape the next attack will dwarf 9/11… ‘The streets will run with blood,’ and ‘America will mourn in silence’… America has brought this on itself for electing George Bush… ABCNEWS strongly denies holding back from broadcast over political concerns during last days of election….”We have been working 24 hours a day trying to authenticate’… Developing…

Run for your lives!!!

I love this part, though:

The terrorist’s face is concealed by a headdress, and he speaks in an American accent, making it difficult to identify the individual.

Golly, I don’t know why ABC might be skeptical of such a tape. It’s clear that this alleged terrorist is simply a member of the Kerry campaign who’s joined al Qaeda.

Setting Up The Fall

James Wolcott documents some more FAUX news atrocities. “Liberal bias” definitely made it into Moody’s memo this morning since virtually every anchor has opined on it today. This is definitely a preview of the new and improved wingnut whine and pout. It’s almost sweetly nostalgic, like a gauzy trip back ten or twelve years in time. I remember it well…

As Wolcott says:

I’m not saying Fox News is anticipating a Bush loss, only that they seem to be laying the ground work for the blame game should he cough it up on November 2nd. They are taking the first baby steps to denying the legitimacy of a Kerry win, preparing the first batch of sour grapes.

It’s all of a piece with the preemptive screeching about voter fraud and Democratic dirty tricks. They are cataloging reasons to explain why the asterisk couldn’t pull it off. They will whine and fret and stomp their tiny little feet in a frenzy, earnestly claiming that Kerry didn’t legitimately win. And they will do it without even the slightest trace of irony.

Try to imagine how little I care.

Stench Of Panic

Amy Sullivan at The Washington Monthly post a very disconcerting piece about the Junta making a recess appointment to the Supreme Court.

Just when you thought the various post-election legal nightmare scenarios couldn’t get worse. U.S. News & World Report is emailing around some reporting that indicates the Bush White House may be considering a recess appointment (requiring no Senate approval, remember) to replace Chief Justice Rehnquist if he steps down for health reasons:

“Even though the U.S. Supreme Court has said Chief Justice William Rehnquist will return to the bench following cancer surgery, administration officials are quietly considering candidates to replace him and even the possibility of making a recess appointment. The officials said that they do not want to talk about the process publicly in the last week of the presidential campaign. However, one insider said that the West Wing is considering what would happen if the judge left the bench soon and if a close election next Tuesday meant an evenly split 4-4 court was to decide the winner. Such a situation would likely mean that a lower court’s ruling on an outcome would be final and officials are worried that it would go against the President.”

I have serious doubts that they could get away with this, but it doesn’t surprise me that they would consider it. They circumvent the letter of the law at every opportunity. To think they would observe the spirit of the law and our democratic system is laughable.