I can’t tell you how important it is to read Donkey Rising every day from now on if you want to know what’s going on with the horse race. Today, Ruy has a very informative piece on likely voters vs. registered voters — and reports that the doom and gloom about Pennsylvania is bullshit.
This is not some “Pollyanna let’s all cross our fingers and hope as hard as we can that the poll numbers are wrong” nonsense. Polling is actually fairly accurate, particularly showing trend lines over time. And, we are not behind. In fact, as Ruy points out, when they poll registered voters we are quite a bit ahead. This is where the scenario of the new and motivated Democrats comes in. If it is true that we are more intense than the other side then these numbers reflect that if we get a good turnout, we win handily. When they all switch to a more reliable likely voter model closer to the election, we’ll have a little better idea if the Dems really are as motivated as we think. I’d bet we are.
Read his posts on the details of political polling and what it all means. You’ll feel better. We are doing fine.
Blitzer, Greenfield and Woodruff are interviewing Zell Miller directly after Cheney’s speech. (After Edwards, the very first words out of anybody’s mouth came from Ralph Reed.)
The good news is that they are challenging his lies. I’m beginning to think, watching him, that I was closer to the truth than I realized when I said he had a mental problem. He sounds ridiculous trying to defend his crazy talk.
Blitzer is accusing him of sounding so angry that “some are saying” his speech may have backfired. Now he’s babbling incoherently. I almost feel sorry for him.
Cheney’s speech was simultaneously dull and nasty, which isn’t an easy feat. Tad Devine is doing just fine framing the difference between the two parties as between hope and fear. After tonight that claim has even more salience. The whole thing was discordant and ugly — and the crowd was way over the top with the cheering at the Democrat bashing. It’s not a pretty picture.
Clearly, Rove has given up on tacking to the middle. He is totally playing to the base. This election is trench warfare — get out the vote.
BTW: Nice of them to make Mary stay off the stage, don’t you think? How do they sleep at night?
Update: Someone should have put a little drop of laudenum in Ziggy’s Starbucks this evening. He apparently challenged Chris Matthews to a duel. For real.
The GOPers in the hall are so excited by the blood dripping from Zell’s mouth that I think I fear they will soon be speaking in tongues. I’m getting worried for their health. This much hate can cause strokes and heart attacks if not controlled.
But don’t you think Zell’s speech and speaking style would be greatly enhanced by a little moustache and a snappy uniform? I mean, it goes so well with the Riefenstahlesque stage set.
I have to wonder if we might not have seen a Buchanan moment there.
On the heels of Marshall’s post from this morning, via Media Matters I see this exchange between Eleanor Clift and Charles Krauthammer:
KRAUTHAMMER: Of course people remember, as Eleanor [Clift] indicated, that Vietnam was a tragedy. But they have to also to be reminded of what people like John Kerry did at the time of that tragedy, and that is, they betrayed the comrades who they left behind. They betrayed them by telling the world that these soldiers left behind were committing atrocities, as Kerry has said on a daily basis. It was a disgraceful act on his part to indict the soldiers, the veterans whom he had served with, and I think that the people who served with him and who have run the ads have the perfect right to remind people of a true history, a history of what this man had done 30 years ago.
CLIFT: I think these ads have taken a toll, but a greater toll has been the fact that Senator Kerry has been so almost passive in responding. I mean, he [Kerry] should stand up and say, “Look, I served in Vietnam. I have medals. Have you no shame?”
[…]
KRAUTHAMMER: The question is, “Have you no shame?” People ought to ask Senator Kerry, “Have you no shame?” To pretend to be a hero of the veterans after how you treated them 30 years ago and disgraced them?
Does everybody see the problem here? No matter how you slice it, Kerry’s either an asshole or a sissy. Are those really the only two possibilities in this scenario, considering that the polls are dead even just as they have been for six frigging months? And who was the favorite to win this election big for the last three years? Hmmm?
Maybe Eleanor “I’ve got conventional wisdom tatooed on my ass” Clift is booked as the “liberal” on the show, but like so many liberals she reflexively call forth the tired and repetitive RNC talking point that Democrats are passive no matter what the actual circumstance. “Well, if there’s one thing we can all agree upon it’s that Democrats are losers. Let’s have lunch.”
She also seems to be laboring under a common and unfortunate illusion that if Kerry just screamed louder — maybe held his breath until he turned blue — that the country would wake up and he’d be heading for a landslide. It would be pretty to think so, but evidence suggests that just calling somebody a liar in a loud voice isn’t very effective.
The game is much more subtle and much more tactical than this “at long last sir have you no shame” fantasy. This is a presidential campaign and unless we want Kerry to turn into Adlai Stevenson Redux, any prosey calls for decency will not be on the menu. And there are also smarter and more effective ways to fight than flailing in all directions screaming your head off.
Kerry has done just fine so far, (although I think his weakness is his press operation and they’re bringing in an All Star to remedy that — Joe Lockhart.) But, this overwrought reaction (without evidence, I might add) on the part of the liberal pundits is really unappealing and counterproductive to our cause. I can see why people don’t want to identify with us if this is who they have to associate themselves with. What a bunch of nervous nellies. No wonder half the country thinks we’re too soft to handle national security. Liberal pundits are the first to agree with the Republicans that we are “passive” and “refuse to fight” even though it isn’t true.
I suppose they don’t want anyone to think they aren’t being fair and balanced. And as we all know, being fair and balanced means agreeing with Republican talking points. Frankly, I wish they’d just shut up. We’d do better without them. Right now we need some strong, faithbased, political loyalty to show the country that we are behind our guy, not second guess him to death. It’s hurting the ballclub.
Update: August 19, 2004:
Thirty years ago, official Navy reports documented my service in Vietnam and awarded me the Silver Star, the Bronze Star and three Purple Hearts. Thirty years ago, this was the plain truth. It still is. And I still carry the shrapnel in my leg from a wound in Vietnam…
Of course, the President keeps telling people he would never question my service to our country. Instead, he watches as a Republican-funded attack group does just that. Well, if he wants to have a debate about our service in Vietnam, here is my answer: “Bring it on.”
Is that macho enough for Eleanor or should Kerry have whipped it out and peed all over the stage to mark his territory?
Clift made her comment on August 30th. As Sommerby says, these people are simply unprepared. It’s so much easier to simply spout the conventional wisdom you heard at a party last night, but it’s not journalism or even punditry to continuously spread RNC propaganda rather than than do your homework and figure out what is really going on.
Thanks to commenter Here’s Kitty for the reminder.
The Howler features a small passage from Ziggy Zell’s Dem bashing tome. Holy Moley:
[M]y conscience travels with me everywhere I go, like some unwelcome inner companion. I cannot escape him and is he tough. He is on steroids, has a Black Belt and long fingernails, and stomps around inside of me, sometimes in hobnailed boots. He’s been there as long as I can remember. Although it’s getting tougher and tougher for me to blow out all the candles on my birthday cake, he just grows stronger—and louder.
Keep it in mind tonight that Zell is really talking to the voice in his head — like the guy who hangs out in front of Starbucks screaming at invisible enemies.
They have medication for this problem and unlike most of his constituents, whom he purports to love, he has health insurance to pay for it. Maybe Dr. Feelfrist can write him a scrip. I hear Rush has some contacts too.
Via Susie, I see that Republicans are taking this “girly-man” thing to a new level:
ALBANY NY – Government cutbacks are hitting a continental soldier below the belt.
The statue of Copper John, a continental soldier that sits atop the state’s Auburn Correctional Facility, was removed earlier this summer for renovation.
The beloved figure is set to return to his perch this fall, albeit a lesser man.
Workers sprucing up the 156-year-old statue were told to reduce the size of Copper John’s crotch.
They may have called them minutemen, but they didn’t wear codpieces. Republicans don’t like to be reminded of that, what with their Chippendales dancer prez and his puritan AG. It’s all very confusing.
Susie also points out in another post, “one of the classic side effects of steroid abuse is… underdeveloped testes.” This is especially interesting in the context of Sidney Blumenthal’s very interesting and highly entertaining deconstruction of the Arnold-GOP love affair:
Schwarzenegger has an aesthetic sense that passes above the heads of the Republicans. To them, it seems he’s appealing to simplicity, strength and old-fashioned patriotism.
But he puts a strange emphasis on the body politic Kultur. The puritanical delegates responded to him with an emotional intensity to themes they can’t fully grasp. No matter how scripted Schwarzenegger may be, he remains pure in his underlying message. He makes the case for the narcissism of power through the power of narcissism.
No one is more narcissistic than a bodybuilder. He builds his reputation standing before mirrors and panels of older men, flexing his muscles to see who has the largest.
Schwarzenegger offered the Republican Convention totemic worship of virility borne out of fear of its fading. It was an act he has been perfecting for decades. In its essence, he offered a sexual identity panic speech.
Bulging muscles on a Hollywood caricature is reassuring. Bulging manhood on the statue of an American patriot is scary.
It’s going to take a boatload of shrinks to sort this shit out.
Many people are upset by Michael Bérubé’s instant conversion from liberal college professor to red-meat Republican imperialist in one night. It does, I admit, seem a bit precipitous to toss off your entire political philosophy at the mere sight of a roomfull of doughy whitebread manliness, but that is the power of Republicanism. All it takes is one speech by Denny Hastert and many a fine Democrat is hooked. (I don’t even want to think about the effect Dick Cheney is going to have tonight. Lock up the womenfolk.)
You simply must read today’s dispatch, however, to understand what a dangerous defection this really is. Here is where an effete east coast literature professor can make a serious contribution to the GOP. As a testament to the diversity and tolerance of the new Republican Party, he has found a way to reach out to all the disillusioned Republicans like Monsieurs DeLay and Racicot who may be having a hard time coming to grips with the self-hating Frenchman syndrome so prevalent in the party:
Next up were the twins, Barbara and Jenna. And here, I think, is where my new party revealed a genius I didn’t know it had. For years, progressive-left literary types like me used to taunt Republicans: “nyah nyah, nyah nyah,” we suggested, “you don’t know anything about surrealism, nyah nyah, never heard of the European avant-garde, la la la la la la.” We thought we were the last word in urbane sophistication, and that Republicans could not begin to comprehend– or even catch– our allusions to figures like Bréton and Bataille. But then along come the Bush twins, and ooh la la, surrealism is born anew! “My Dad already had a chief of staff– and his name is Andy!” said Jenna. It is beyond humor, it is beyond your petty-ironic Democrat understanding. “Our parents’ favorite term of endearment for each other is Bushy,” they said, following this with “we had a hamster too, but our hamster didn’t make it.” What does this mean? you ask. Foolish liberal Democrats, fretting about “what does this mean, this strange talk of bushes and lost hamsters.” It is not about meaning. It is about the irruption of the unconscious into the very fabric of everyday life, where the eye becomes an egg and the hamster disappears into the bushy undergrowth, there to be transformed into the heart and soul of America. Hah! Now we find that Republican diversity is even more diverse than Michael Steele and Arnold Schwarzenegger– it extends even to the domain of live performance art, where Barbara and Jenna Bush evoke Bréton and Bataille and Beavis and Butthead in an intertextual performance that leaves you girlie-men cultural-studies Democrats gasping for air. I especially liked the bit about how their parents taught them to respect everyone. Except the people we run against– them we slime! Heh. Heh heh. Heh.
I told you Rove was a sneaky pomo bastard.
It’s somewhat alarming to see someone like Bérubé, who was just 48 hours ago filled with liberal goodness and righteousness, turn so quickly. But I’m beginning to understand how it can happen. I myself felt a little stirring in my upper colon last night at the sight of an accented cartoon cyborg being féted as a visionary and a couple of young ladies proving in front of the entire world that, just like their father, one need never intellectually progress beyond the seventh grade if one is rich enough. I just wanted to go out and get myself some of those purple heart band-aids and paste them on every liberal girly-man I know. Forget all that sacrifice, courage and hard work crapola. Being a wealthy empty shell is what the new America is all about.
By the way, the French word for irony is “ironie.” That’s a little too close for comfort in this day and age. From now on I’m using the term “honor ‘n integrity” in its place. Just so’s you know.
For some time now, there have been rumblings in the business community about being the victims of “shakedowns” by Republican politicians. Certainly, Tom DeLay’s K Street project has intimidated the lobbying firms into only hiring those of whom he approves.
Now, however, they are throwing down the gauntlet and turning their dirty tricks operation on business leaders who don’t toe the line. This thing with Soros is a sea change. If the Republicans think they can intimidate billionaires who don’t share their political point of view, the CEO’s should really begin to wonder just who is running the show, here.
If the Speaker of the House can accuse Soros of making his money from the illegal drug trade (which doesn’t make any sense since he’s in favor of legalization) then they can say anything about any of those guys too if they don’t follow the party line.
What an interesting dilemma for the masters of the universe. Is Monsieur DeLay their bitch or are they his?
Update:
Hesiod (welcome back to the jungle, dude) finds the genesis of this Hastert (and Gingrich) smear against Soros. It’s none other than Lyndon LaRouche. Figures.
Now, what’s all this I hear about Scaife and his sister?
So, this is the first I’ve heard that Dave Dreier is gay but it does explain something to me that I’ve wondered about for a long time — why he didn’t run for higher office. He’s very articulate, attractive and media friendly — way more than some loser like Bill Jones, who’s running against Barbara Boxer. He always seemed to travel in the power circles of the party and recently served as a high level advisor to Arnold. I’ve scratched my head more than once as to why this guy hadn’t achieved a much higher profile.
This is one of the most potent arguments against bigotry. Here you have someone who is obviously a talented politican (if playing for the wrong team — the GOP, that is) and he can’t be allowed to run for higher office because of the prejudices of a bunch of medieval lamebrains. This happens all the time in all walks of life and it’s so patently unamerican. This is, after all, the country where anyone is supposed to be able to make it on the merits. As Clinton used to say, we don’t have a person to waste. (Like arabic translators…)
Then again, I have to ask myself why any self respecting gay person would be a Republican when most of his comrades believe he is a repellant deviant (unless he’s a Catholic priest in which case it should be overlooked.) To me, it’s like a black man joining the KKK. Don’t get it.
Update: To be clear, I am not making a comparison between gays and pedophiles. My meaning was that the right seems to be remarkably forgiving of the fact that the priesthood has a fair number of gay members — a status which they perceive as deviant and repellant — and that is something that would be the cause of a general condemnation of any other institution. (Think Boy Scouts.) The pedophilia issue is something else altogether — although it is quite telling that they don’t hold the church accountable for real crimes either. Apparently, if the institution in question is a church, there is nothing the right will find worthy of the condemnation they extend across every where else in society.
If the entire priesthood is gay it’s a non-issue as far as I’m concerned. Likewise, if priests have affairs with their female parishoners, which I understand is not exactly unheard of, it’s none of anyone elses business in my book. I’m not a catholic, so I don’t really feel that I have a right to judge their moral requirements for adults. (Obviously pedophilia, which is most often heterosexual, is a crime and should be prosecuted wherever it happens.) But, surprisingly, I don’t hear much of an outcry from the sanctimonious Republican party that a two thousand year old religious institution is a hotbed of what they deem to be the kind of sexual immorality that led them to a non-stop orgy of absolutism just six short years ago in the impeachment of the president. Indeed, they are going out of their way to court the leaders of that very institution. Strikes me as a little bit self-serving, that’s all.
This is driving me nuts. All night long, on all the cable networks, the whores were going on and on about how the polls are terrible news for Kerry. On Matthews they were studiously trying to figure out what moment it was exactly when Kerry lost the election. Nobody questioned GOP shill Dave Drier when he said he was ecstatic that the polls have done a 180 and Bush now has a good chance to take California. Shake ups in the Kerry camp are afoot. Fineman points out that Kerry may have been a fighter but he’s never had to face Karl Rove before. That explains his ignominious defeat. These Republicans are just too good.
Except for one thing. This is all bullshit. Here’s the latest from polling report. It’s a goddamned dead heat. And the question nobody asks is how a Republican incumbent who stood at a 90% approval rating for more than a year is now below 50% and can’t seem to put away the pussy Democrats in the middle of a war.
There’s your story, press corpse.
I guess it’s just so comfy cozy for them to be back in the loving arms of the GOP where they nestled so sweetly for more than two years suckling on the mother’s milk of wartime propaganda. Extolling the manly heroism of George W.Bush is something that comes so naturally they don’t even realize they’re doing it. Why bother with the real story? This one just feels so right.
Never listen to the pundits. They are living in an alternate universe and they are almost always wrong about everything. Just look at the last four years of punditry if you doubt me.