If we really had any brains, we wouldn’t spend another second on you, but on the people who can truly make a difference: the “unlikely” voters. And there are millions more of them than there are of you. Those people aren’t after attention, they’re just incredibly lazy. The only way they’ll register to vote is if someone shows up at their door with a form. And then the only way they’ll actually vote is if you carry them to the booth.
Not only are they lazy, they’re also indifferent. They just don’t believe that voting can have an effect on their lives. Well, it just so happens that right after I voted for the first time, I landed myself a big fat job in Hollywood, a biopsy came back benign and I met my future wife as soon as I walked out of the voting booth. Coincidence? You decide.
I’m telling you, all you have to do is get them registered and tell them that it will really mean a lot to you if they will vote for John Kerry. You’ll take care of the details of getting them registered, getting them absentee ballots or getting them to the polls.
On the CNN morning show they just did a story on Jason Blair receiving $3,000 to speak at a college. Apparently, the students were not happy and gave Blair a very hard time.
One of the happy talking whores (the grizzled, creepy one) said, “who are they going to get next? Dan Rather?”
Everybody needs to read Liberal Oasis every day. Bill Sher’s analysis of the way the game is played in invaluable. It will make you feel better and it will give you things to think about.
Today he has a long post up about our marching orders called “Your Mission: Maximize The Strategy.” The following is just a small excerpt and I urge you to read the whole thing:
At this stage of the game, those of us on the outside do the most good by helping the campaign execute strategy in the grassroots, not by rehashing strategy.
There may be news items to flag, and specific attack lines to suggest, but wholesale strategic overhauls are not worth batting around anymore.
And they can be debilitating.
What was worse in 2000?
The fact that Al Gore didn’t ask Bill Clinton to campaign much for him?
Or the fact that people wouldn’t shut up about whether Bill Clinton should campaign with him?
In that case, Gore had a tough call to make.
While partisans were convinced Clinton was gold on the campaign trail, polls showed he turned off a large chunk of independent voters.
Monday morning QBs still lambaste Gore for his call, under the “every decision was a bad decision” logic when assessing “losing” campaigns.
But to this day, they can’t be sure that a heavy dose of Clinton would have meant a popular vote loss too, or if it just wouldn’t have made a difference.
And we also don’t know what would have happened if the party just got in line and backed Gore’s strategy to the hilt.
I’ve been thinking about this all day and I think part of what is going on with us Democrats is that while it is natural to treat the race like it’s a sporting event our mistake is in thinking that we are the fans. We sit around the metaphorical bar and kibbitz about what the manager should and shouldn’t do. Don’t pull Pedro! That’s nuts!
But this isn’t a sporting event in which we are all observers. We are players in this game and it actually matters what we do and say. Our attitude, our intensity, or energy and our willingnesss to walk the precinct and put up signs and talk to our friends can all affect the outcome. The manager can’t listen to all of our conflicting advice, but he sure needs us to play to the best of our ability.
There’s a lot we can do and each of us has to figure out what that might be, from work on the ground to calling up Grandma Millie and making sure she’s registered to vote (and knows that Bush’s pals at Enron said they were screwing her during the energy crisis.)
And, the very least we can do is make sure that if the issue of politics comes up in our daily lives that we unequivocally say out loud that we support Kerry and think he’s a good man even as we make our case against Bush. (The ABB meme served its purpose and it’s counterproductive at this point.) Kerry’s working his ass off on our behalf to take down little Junior. We owe him some respect for that and we need to help him make that affirmative case for change.
Here’s a little idea for a personal political project that each of us can undertake. Surely, we all know one person who doesn’t usually vote, an apolitical type who isn’t interested. This country is crawling with them. This is the election to get them registered and make sure they vote, whether by sending them the link for an absentee ballot or offering to pick them up and take them to the polls on election day. Everybody knows somebody like this. If we all make sure that we each get one person to vote who wouldn’t otherwise give a damn, we win.
So, think about it. Which of your slacker friends can you get to vote this year? Take the initiative. They won’t mind. They don’t care. Make that work for us.
Q He’s bringing up an issue that was bounced around this room at length —
MR. McCLELLAN: And it’s been fully addressed, and all the records have been released, and the President fulfilled his duty and was proud to serve and be honorably discharged from the National Guard.
Q Will the Commander-in-Chief insist that his Pentagon get to the bottom, find every last document of the National Guard service?
MR. McCLELLAN: I think that’s what the President directed back in February.
Q Are you frustrated, or is he, that more documents are surfacing?
MR. McCLELLAN: All the personnel, payroll, and medical records have been made public, and the President directed back in February that the Department of Defense do a comprehensive search and make all the documents available, and we had assurances that they had done that and, unfortunately, we have since found out that it was not as comprehensive as we thought. So they’ve continued to go and look for additional documents.
Q Is the President frustrated, irritated by this?
MR. McCLELLAN: See, that’s why I pointed out that all the personnel, payroll and medical records have been released.
Q How do you know that?
MR. McCLELLAN: They’ve assured us that all those records are out, and in fact, you have those records.
White House press secretary Scott McClellan hinted that more documents regarding Bush’s National Guard service may soon be released. Asked whether officials in the White House have seen unreleased documents, McClellan called that “a very real possibility.” Other officials with knowledge of the situation said more documents had indeed been uncovered and would be released in the coming days.
Republican congressman Christopher Cox is asking for a formal congressional investigation into CBS News’ use of what he calls “apparently forged documents concerning the service record of George W. Bush intended to unfairly damage his reputation and influence the outcome of the 2004 presidential election.”
Less than a month ago, though, Cox used a different standard to judge the “Swift Boat Veterans for Truth,” whose every allegation about Kerry’s service in Vietnam turned out to be inaccurate and was most certainly intended to damage Kerry’s reputation and influence the outcome of the election — and was reported endlessly without appropriate skepticism in the media. From the CNN transcript:
“Blitzer: Chris Cox, you’re a good Republican. Should the president specifically denounce this ad put out by these Swift Boat Veterans for Truth?”
Cox: Well, this is obviously what’s going on now with campaign finance reform, 527s and so on. There’s a lot going on around the campaigns that the campaigns don’t control. I think that, for the candidates, the risk is, if you try and take ownership, either positively or negatively, of what’s going on around you, then it looks as if you’re even more involved. With respect to the facts underlying all of this, there was a book published by swift boat veterans. It ought to rise or fall on its own merits, just as with ‘Fahrenheit 9/11,’ which is loaded with factual inaccuracies.”
But Cox isn’t content to let CBS’ report “rise and fall” on its own merits. He wants Congress involved.
Yes. Christopher Cox is a little bit, shall we say, “inconsistent” about these matters. For instance, back in July 2003, he was very upset about another issue pertaining to media and the government:
U.S. Rep. Christopher Cox (R-Newport Beach), Chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security, sharply criticized a decision by the U.S. Secret Service to interrogate Pulitzer Prize-winning cartoonist Michael Ramirez about the subject of a recent editorial cartoon. The cartoon, based on an award-winning photograph from the Vietnam War, depicts Bush with his hands behind his back as a man labeled “Politics” prepares to shoot him in the head. The background of the drawing is a cityscape labeled “Iraq.”
“Those of us in Southern California are used to seeing Michael Ramirez’s political cartoons in the Los Angeles Times,” said Chairman Cox. “They are amusing, insightful, sometimes historical, sometimes biting—but never illegal. I was disappointed to read that the U.S. Secret Service, according to an agency spokesman, was considering ‘what action, if any, could be taken’ against Mr. Ramirez for his recent cartoon depicting political attacks on President Bush.
“The use of federal power to attempt to influence the work of an editorial cartoonist for the Los Angeles Times reflects profoundly bad judgment,” Chairman Cox said in a letter to Secret Service Director Ralph Basham.
You see, it is bad judgment to use federal power to influence the work of a conservative editorial cartoonist. A news organization making a controversial claim about the president is subject to a full congressional investigation, however. Anyone can understand that.
I’ve been trying to be positive about Kerry, but perhaps I’ve been silly. When the press develops a consensus like this it’s hard to argue that they don’t know what they are talking about. Jack O’Toole makes you stop and think about what is really going on here:
Business Week asks the question that seems to be on just about every pundit’s lips — Does Kerry Still Have A Chance? — and the answer sounds really, really bad.
After a long swoon marked by snoozy stumping, staff feuds, and the inevitable campaign shakeup, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry is trying to claw his way back into the…presidential race.
….Kerry has to do something he has failed at thus far: provide a compelling rationale for his candidacy. Indeed, he has trouble coming across as a passionate pol who fights for Middle America. With his attenuated frame, sparkling starched shirts, and aristocratic mien, he looks every inch the Beacon Hill Brahmin. The “real deal”? That’s the nickname of former heavyweight champ Evander Holyfield, who was a great fighter in his almost 20-year career but never managed to electrify the crowd.
God, talk about a nightmare. Of course, I have to tell you, I’d probably be even more concerned if the article didn’t also say this:
With the Jan. 27 New Hampshire primary looming and Dean holding a commanding lead in the state, the pressure on Kerry to break out is immense. But even on his home turf, there are troubles. In a Nov. 19-21 poll by RKM Research & Communications, he trailed Dean by 9 points in Massachusetts. What’s the problem? Kerry’s detached sang-froid seems to pale in the face of Dean’s fiery populist orations. “Dean is having a virtual coronation in New Hampshire,” says a Democratic strategist. “If you’re second, you have to take the guy down. Kerry isn’t making Dean play defense.”
As we watch Dan Rather twist in the wind while the National Guard story transmogrifies into a tale of liberal bias and dirty tricks, let’s not forget that we are still awaiting some apologies for hoaxes and frauds that were happily and unabashedly served up for years at a time by a gullible press corpse.The Daily Howler gives us a little reminder today:
Did CBS run with crudely forged docs? Here at THE HOWLER, we can’t really say. But how comical are the outraged squeals about “liberal bias” which are all over cable? Those squeals are very comical. What does this current episode show? It shows this: If you broadcast a shaky tale about Bush, the world will land on your head in an instant. Does this show the corps’ “liberal bias?” We’d have to say that it does not.
Yes, a shaky tale about Bush has produced instant outrage. But what if you broadcast shaky tales about Democrats? Twelve years later, has anyone ever made the New York Times explain its Jeff Gerth Whitewater hoax—the hoax-like stories that gave the name to a decade of phony tales about Clinton? Has anyone ever made the press to explain all those bogus tales about Gore? And by the way—will anyone ever ask O’Neill why he keeps saying that John Kerry fled? At best, O’Neill’s kooky book is highly marginal; more reasonably judged, the book is a joke. But has anyone landed on O’Neill the way the press corps has beaned Kitty Kelley? Indeed, very few papers have even printed a formal review of O’Neill’s kooky book. Liberal bias? To all appearances, major papers are afraid to say how kooky this book really is.
Readers, treat yourselves to a dark, mordant chuckle! O’Neill has dissembled all over the land—and the wolves are screaming for Dan Rather’s head! But we’re supposed to see these troubling events as the latest proof of a liberal bias. Big orgs have produced a string of fake tales about Dems—but one shaky tale about Bush proves a point. Well-trained pundits swarm over cable. And they know what to yell: Liberal bias!
It an amazing thing to watch. From state troopers to lounge singers to homely office clerks to love story to swift boats, this country has been taken on a multi million dollar right wing funded fraud for over a decade and I still haven’t seen even one “journalist” apologize, retract or even acknowledge it.
Dan Rather will probably resign over this unless something new comes up very soon to back him up. But, if a reporter being duped by somebody with a political agenda is now grounds for resignation, let’s just say that there are going to be a whole lot of job openings in the “liberal” media coming very, very soon. Unless, of course, the standard only applies if it’s a hoax perpetrated against a Republican. In that case then we are talking about a completely different animal, aren’t we? And that animal doesn’t feature the word “liberal” in it’s description.
But, the words “chickenshit whores” do come to mind.
I enjoy backseat campaign managing as much as the next person. And I admit that the press and our inability to manage it profoundly depresses me. But, I NEVER say we are going to lose. I love to analyze the race and offer my ideas, but it is never done in the spirit that the Kerry campaign are a bunch of losers. I cannot conceive of a more demoralizing and hopeless thing to read than something like this:
Some prominent Democrats are already grumbling privately that none of the people in Kerry’s communications operation should ever work on campaigns again, should Kerry lose. Given all the money Kerry, the DNC, and the 527s have raised and spent this time around, the typical Democratic lament of having been vastly outspent will ring hollow. If Kerry loses, it will not be because he was outspent; he will be because he was outfoxed.
There was a moment in the 1992 campaign, former Clinton-Gore ’92 communications director George Stephanopoulos told Frontline in 2001, where the staffers could suddenly feel the weight of what it was they were trying to do. Stephanopoulous talked about it in the context of the history of the War Room, and it’s quite illuminating:
Frontline: After the primaries in California, you then set up the war room. What are you trying to do?
Stephanopoulous: Not to be the Dukakis campaign, which a lot of us had worked in. And a lot of us felt we had been beat because the Republicans had laid out a pretty targeted, fierce assault on Dukakis that we didn’t answer. We were determined that if we were going to lose, we were going to lose fighting. We were going down fighting. In June, we were in third place, broke and we hadn’t gotten paid in two months. And Ross Perot was moving. And like I said, we were not going to go down without a fight.
And the war room was important, not just for the actual work it would do in answering the Republican charges and counterattacking, but the very idea of it was important — just having a war room so that Democrats, especially, but also others who were just going to start to pay attention to the campaign, would see that we weren’t like Democrats in the past. They’d see that we were different — not only because we were different on our ideas — but because we fight back when we’re hit.
Frontline: Later in the fall, polls were looking pretty good for you with Bush. Still, according to everything everyone had written, there’s a sense of fear that never goes away.
Stephanopoulous: It’s a different kind of fear. I remember the first time I ever really let myself believe we could win and we’re going to win. It was late September in the Washington Hilton on a Sunday morning, and Clinton was about to go give a speech in North Carolina on NAFTA. And he called me in and had his standard morning outburst on the speech and was yelling about it. And, but his heart wasn’t really in it, and I could tell. . . . And he suddenly stops yelling, looks me right in the eye and says, “You think we’re going to win, don’t you?” I said, “Yes.” And he goes, “I do, too.” And for me, that was just incredible. He was saying out loud what we all hoped for, but could never say. It would be like talking about a no-hitter in the eighth inning.
And from that moment on, inside we didn’t feel like underdogs anymore. We felt like we had this responsibility to win. And as a staffer, it was starting to get a little bit out of control, because I had never been through anything like that and nobody else had either. When you’re in a presidential campaign at its peak in the fall, all the sudden it’s not just 20 people in Little Rock sitting in a room. You’re representing a lot of people who have invested in you, and not just the money. People have just invested their hopes. The whole country is paying attention. There are millions. And we start to think, my God, if we blow it now, it’s all our fault. And we will have blown this opportunity that a lot of people are counting on us to carry out.
So the fear of making a mistake and letting these people down and thinking, basically, that you’re going to have to leave the country becomes tremendous. You just don’t want to blow it.
You have to wonder if the Kerry team is feeling that same fear right now, though, as they approach late September trailing rather than confident of victory. Because if they blow this one…
In late September of ’92 people were beginning to beg Perot to get back in the race and nobody knew what was going to happen. There was no empirical reason to believe that Clinton had it in the bag although I’m not surprised that he felt confident. That’s how competitors make themselves get up in the morning. That race was like a fucking bungee jump. And believe me, if you’d asked the same crew of sad sack Democratic insiders what they thought at the time they would have said that the sky was falling and that we were doomed, doomed, doomed and should have nominated Tsongas because he didn’t have a draft problem.
I’m as fond of Clinton hagiography as anyone on the planet, but a whole lot of this fuzzy nostalgia about ’92 is just crap. Bush senior was in free fall in the polls because he was widely considered to be out of touch on the economy, which was perceived to be very bad. Ross Perot had sucked all the oxygen out of the campaign for months and took the press’s eye off of the Bush assault on Clinton. Then he dramatically withdrew from the race during the Democratic convention saying that the Democratic party was “revitalized.” That was quite a gift and it gave Clinton a chance to re-start what had been a very anemic campaign.
He fought back, yes, by using the innovation of answering charges within the same news cycle. But, I watched that campaign more closely than any in my life and I can tell you that each one of those hits took another piece off of his hide. He didn’t lie down, and that was admirable, but that’s not why he won. He won because both he and Perot were hitting Senior hard on the economy while Senior and his crew were having to discredit both Perot and Clinton with character smears. Perot imploded, but by the time he did he had helped drive Senior’s negatives even farther into the dirt than Clinton’s and maintained a “movement” that siphoned off 20% of the vote when he got back in. It was one of the weirdest campaigns in American history and virtually no lessons can be drawn from it.
Kerry has every reason to be hopeful. Indeed, there is good reason to believe that Bush’s ephemeral lead is shrinking as we speak. It’s a nailbiter, but it is far from over.
I just wish that Dems could put on their game faces and try to sell the guy a little bit instead of constantly writing his epitaph. He’s really a good man, you know. He’s spent his life in public service, trying to do the right thing, working hard and carrying our agenda. He’s our most liberal nominee in decades. He’s smart and energetic and he’s never been tainted by corruption or scandal. Is it so hard for Democrats to get behind a man like this or are we just as shallow as everybody else? Would we too be happier with a brand name in a suit?
DonkeyRising has a few more thoughts on the state of the race:
Well, those cards and letters keep coming in, so I thought I’d respond to a few of the most common questions that have been posed to me.
1. How can you deny that Bush is ahead?
I don’t. My view is that he is currently ahead, but only modestly, contrary to the tone of media coverage and the findings of some polls. I have tried to explain the reasoning behind this assessment, especially as it pertains to possible problems with contemporary polls.
It’s worth noting that the latest poll data on RVs–ending the night of the 12th–have Kerry up by 2 (IBD/CSM/TIPP) or Bush up by 4 (ICR). That averages out to a 1 point Bush lead, even without party-weighting the data. And Rasmussen LV data for the period ending the 12th also has Bush with a one point lead.
2. How is it possible for samples of RVs to suddenly have too many Republican identifiers? Aren’t voters just shifting their party identification?
It is certainly possible that we gone from, say, a 4-5 point Democrtic lead in party ID to a 4-5 point Republican lead in the space of the last month. But color me skeptical about this 8-10 point swing in a few short weeks.
A better explanation for this sudden shift in poll samples, in my view, is that when the political situation jazzes up supporters of one party, they are more likely to want to participate in a public opinion telephone poll and express their views. An increased rate of interview acceptance by that party’s supporters would then skew the sample toward that party without the underlying distribution having changed very much, if at all.
In this case, the Republican convention, coming on the heels of the Swift Boat controversy, may have helped raise political enthusiasm among Republican partisans, leading to more interview acceptances and a disproportionate number of Republicans in recent samples.
Do I know this for sure? No, I don’t, because we lack direct evidence that this is happening, just as we lack direct evidence that individual voters are suddenly and massively shifting their party allegiance. But I do know which of these explanations I find more plausible and consistent with other evidence about the general stability of party ID.
My uninformed gut tells me that this race is, and will likely remain, close. I always thought it would be, as inexplicable as that is. I have been following this interesting theory by professor James Galbraith that Bush is on a slow trajectory to defeat for some time. Basically, he says that Bush has been artificially boosted above his natural level by three events, 9/11, Iraq and the capture of Saddam. He is fairly sure that it will take an October Surprise for Bush to win:
With about seven weeks to go, this equation suggests that if no new major episode occurs, Bush should lose about 2.1 percentage points between now and Election Day. In that case, he will face John Kerry with approval ratings very close to the lows of his presidency. And very close to the floor, below which he probably can’t sink.
The moral remains the same. As I’ve said in earlier columns, an “October surprise” could tip the balance. The country should be braced for news on the terror front from Pakistan or elsewhere. Or perhaps we’ll see the gift of a “You can go home soon” speech by Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi. One hears, at this stage of the campaign, all kinds of rumors. They can’t be verified, but they gain weight from the fact that the Bush team tried to manipulate the terror war — ordering up well-timed arrests in Pakistan — to squelch Kerry’s convention bounce last July. Who knows what else they have planned?
On the other hand, it’s clear that Bush hasn’t put the contest away. Kerry can win this thing for sure.