Digby's Hullabaloo Posts

Misundercalculated

I’ve been out of the loop for a couple of days so I didn’t get a chance to read this until now. Has there ever been a bigger case of burying the lead than to breathlessly repeat the stale spin that Bush doesn’t think Kerry lied about his war record and he’s against 527’s for four paragraphs, until finally telling us that Bush “acknowledged for the first time that he made a ‘miscalculation of what the conditions would be’ in postwar Iraq?”

Uh, the Preznit acknowledging that he fucked up Iraq is called actual news in case they’ve forgotten what that looks like.

But he insisted that the 17-month-long insurgency that has upended the administration’s plans for the country was the unintended by-product of a “swift victory” against Saddam Hussein’s military, which fled and then disappeared into the cities, enabling them to mount a rebellion against the American forces far faster than Mr. Bush and his aides had anticipated.

He insisted that his strategy had been “flexible enough” to respond, and said that even now “we’re adjusting to our conditions” in places like Najaf, where American forces have been battling one of the most militant of the Shiite groups opposing the American-installed government.

Mr. Bush deflected efforts to inquire further into what went wrong with the occupation, suggesting that such questions should be left to historians, and insisting, as his father used to, that he would resist going “on the couch” to rethink decisions.

I think Junior just made a tactical error. Kerry and every other Democrat appearing in the media should wrap that statement around his neck. This is a trap if they want to spring it.

The fact that they had him admit his error in judgment for the first time suggests to me that they’ve decided he may need some cover on Iraq. But, I think Bush hates to admit he made a mistake and he will hate even more being reminded that he did it. It’s just not in character for him at all. I would bet money that he fought saying it and having the Democrats and the press throw it in his face could make him question whoever gave him that advice — Karen or Karl most likely. It is good to sow discontent in that little circle.

But, the bigger advantage is that he’s now simultaneously admitted that he screwed up big time on the single most important issue a president ever faces, while also saying that he has no intention of trying to figure out what went wrong. That is the worst of all possible worlds. It’s best not to have to admit screwing up something as important as war planning but if you do you simply have to make the case that learned from the experience and you won’t do it again. He didn’t do that. Iraq is a massive failure and the president has just opened the door to his own culpability on that.

Kerry should go for the jugular — this argument is on his turf. Bush isn’t talking about the decision to go to war anymore, he’s talking about his execution of that war and the decisions he made all by his lonesome. These mistakes are at the heart of Kerry’s criticism of Bush on the war.

The contrast is stark. John Kerry believes in planning for contingencies and evaluating what works and what doesn’t. George Bush admits he is a poor planner and wants to leave it to historians to figure out where he went wrong. But it will be too late by then. People are dying today. We need new leadership.

Nick of Time

Ron Brownstein analyzes the new LA Times poll as saying that Kerry has been “nicked” by the swiftboat controversy and now leads Kerry 49-46:

But with the controversy attracting intense media attention, especially on talk radio and cable television, the ads have achieved extraordinary visibility among voters. Forty-eight percent of those polled said they had seen the ad accusing Kerry of lying to win his medals; an additional 20 percent said they had heard about it. Similarly, 44 percent said they had seen the ad criticizing Kerry’s Senate testimony; another 17 percent said they had heard about it.

At the same time, just 18 percent of those surveyed said they “believe that Kerry misrepresented his war record and does not deserve his war medals,” while 58 percent said Kerry “fought honorably and does deserve” the medals.

Attitudes on that question divided sharply along party lines. As many Republicans said they believed Kerry was lying as believe he fought honorably. By nearly 10-1, Democrats said Kerry served honorably.Independents sided with Kerry in the dispute by more than 5-1.

When voters were asked whether Kerry’s protest against the war when he returned from Vietnam would influence their vote, 20 percent said it made them more likely to support him, while 26 percent said it reduced the chance they would back him and 52 percent said it made no difference.But if Kerry showed relatively few bruises on these questions directly measuring reactions to the veterans’ charges against him, indirect measures suggested he has suffered more damage.

Asked how Kerry’s overall military experience would affect their vote, just 23 percent said it made them more likely to vote for him, while 21 percent said it made them less likely; the remaining 53 percent said it would make no difference. That has to be a disappointment for the Kerry camp after a Democratic convention last month that placed Kerry’s Vietnam service at the top of the marquee.

I’m not sure how those figures add up to the fact that Kerry’s slight slippage is attributable to the Swiftboat liars, but I’ll take Brownstein’s word for it.

Where he’s definitely wrong, I think, is in thinking that Kerry’s camp is disappointed that voters feel his Vietnam service makes no difference after he placed it at the top of the convention marquee. I don’t think they ever expected it to be a decisive factor in the election. I’m quite sure that it was calculated to inoculate him as much as possible against this swiftboat attack. Imagine if the swiftees had come out with this and the public hadn’t been given the full star spangled banner routine with the stolid shipmates and Cleland and Rassman standing up there with him and proclaiming him a hero. If people didn’t have that clearly in their minds, the swiftboat smear would have taken hold much better than it has.

If this is all the damage two full weeks of smearing has done, then I’d say they’ve been as successful at fending it off as you could hope for in this closely divided electorate. Smears can be deadly. Nicks heal quickly.

Frankly, I think the $70 million spent convincing the public that Kerry is a flip-flopping frenchman is what’s really sunk into the subconscious of the electorate. In every one of these polls (and every political conversation I have) this comes up. “He’s all over the place”— “he doesn’t stand for anything.” I think it’s become a pretty solid perception and it would be helpful to counter it more effectively.

They have half heartedly come out with the “stubborn” line, but I don’t think that’s the right word. There is a positive spin to stubborn — “dogged determination” or “resolute” — that makes it a bad attack line. I think better phrase is “refuses to admit his mistakes,” or “the buck stops nowhere.” Play the footage from the press conference showing him unable to think of any errors he might have made. The neanderthals will go nuts,of course, and say it’s dirty politics to show the man speaking his own words, but when people see him bobble that question they see a very weak man who cannot admit that presidents sometimes need to change course. According to that poll, most people believe that a course change is required, even many of those who want to vote for him.

Hah!

I just heard CNN frame “Inside Politics” as “Is Kerry getting mileage out of the controversy?”

Update: I am enjoying watching the Republicans argue among themselves about the platform on gay marriage, particularly the Log Cabin guy calling the Family Research Council guy insulting. That Bush sure is a uniter not a divider.

BTW: How did I miss all these ads that said Bush was poisoning pregnant women? I don’t know what they are babbling about, but I’ve heard it several times today. Why do you suppose the cable news networks failed to give those who were accusing him of this crime hundreds of hours of free media? How odd.

I have to say this is kind of risky. I didn’t know that Bush was poisoning pregnant women until today. Geez, he really is low, isn’t he?

That’s What I’m Talking About

This is creative and the press loves it. Max Cleland, disabled veteran and former US Senator is greeted by some lowly functionary in Crawford because Bush is too much of a pussy to talk to him himself.

Ronald Reagan or Bill Clinton would have used the moment to show himself as a regular guy with respect and humor.

Bush hid. As usual.

He’s Not Just A Pretty Face

…he’s got great taste, too.

As the lines between showbiz and politics keep getting blurrier and blurrier, even Turner Classic Movies is weighing in, signing Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards to tape an introduction to a screening of “Dr. Strangelove: Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb.”

Because TCM is a cable network, it didn’t have to give equal time to Sen. Edwards’ rival Vice President Dick Cheney .

The Edwards-hosted presentation of “Dr. Strangelove” (1964), directed by Stanley Kubrick, lands on TCM at 10 p.m . Oct. 7. It’s the first of four specials called “Party, Politics & the Movies,” an umbrella series encompassing movies introduced by politicians at 10 every Thursday night during the rest of October.

On Oct. 14, Sen. John McCain makes some pointed remarks about contemporary America in his intro to another Kubrick movie “Paths of Glory” (1957). The “lesson” McCain takes from the movie is that a country like the U.S. has “an incredible obligation” to protect the lives of American soldiers. “The cause has to be just,” he said. “The end has to be in sight. And there has to be a clear-cut strategy for that victory.”

An unabashed Robin Williams fan, Sen. Joe Biden will host the Oct. 21 showing of “Dead Poets Society” (1989). The movie’s celebration of independent thinkers is to Biden a metaphor for what’s best in America.

On Oct. 28, Sen. Orrin Hatch takes on “To Kill a Mockingbird” (1962), calling it “a mobilizing film” against racial prejudice and injustice.

Edwards likes the apocalyptic black comedy “Dr. Strangelove” because it drives home the thesis that, as his intro puts it, putting nuclear power and “this potential holocaust in the hands of human beings, no matter who they are, is an extraordinarily dangerous thing.”

And Joe Biden proves once again that he is a lightweight.

Story Lines

Amy Sullivan on Political Animal writes:

An article that appeared in the Philadelphia Inquirer just two weeks ago included this bit about Ginsberg: “Ben Ginsberg, a legal adviser to the Bush campaign, specifically condemned the dual roles played by Democrats Harold Ickes and Bill Richardson, who had official roles at the convention and also within prominent friendly 527s. ‘They’re over the coordination line,’ Ginsberg said of Ickes and Richardson. ‘The whole notion of cutting off links between public officeholders and soft-money groups just got exploded.'”

Ginsberg is a made man and Ginsberg has now resigned from the Bush campaign. The fact that he resigned makes me think that the Bushies are getting a little bit spooked at the furious revelations coming out day by day on the Not-So-Swift lies and their campaign ties.

The convention is getting very close. I’m not sure they anticipated that the Liars were lying quite so baldy and that the press would make anything of the web of connections. (Ginsberg on the record just two weeks ago leads me to believe they thought their flank was covered on this.) The positive message they need to convey at the convention could be stepped on badly if the mediawhores decide to flog this angle while they are sitting there in madison Square Garden with every prominent Republican in the country.

I don’t think Bush wants to leave his convention over the labor day week-end still talking about 527’s.

Which leads me to Rick Perlstein’s latest article in the Village Voice in which he says:

History never truly repeats itself. Prognostication is inherently unreliable. But what history can provide is a set of guidelines to wisdom—guidelines many protesters refuse even to consider. Not all protesters. But enough protesters. All it takes is a few people to begin a chain reaction that could lead to disaster.

Like many, Lew Koch suspects the spark might come from someone working for the Republicans.

The Republicans have already shown that they are willing to engage in unprecedented smears and dirty tricks in this cycle. I think it is highly likely that they have some french looking infiltrators — provocateurs — ready to help Bush get out his story line about being “mainstream” while Kerry and the Democrats are all a bunch of smelly hippie radicals who want to tear down the state. This is the ’68 Retro Tour election, after all.

It would be really nice if people on our side could think strategically about this instead of looking at politics as some sort of emotional outlet, but I’m not holding my breath. As Perlstein notes:

Rae Valentine is even right, in a cosmic sense, when she says that “people understand that the so-called chaos of streets being shut down by protesters or even a window being broken is nothing compared to the day-to-day chaos and destruction of people being able to afford housing, or health care. That’s where the real violence—in the system—lies.”

But she is not right in the sense that matters: the political sense. “I think people understand,” she says. Linger on that formulation. It is only inane arrogance that gives someone the confidence to pronounce that, magically, “people will understand.” They might not understand at all. Instead, what they might understand is: “Bush is better than anarchy in the streets.” It ain’t fair. But if it all goes down as unplanned, there’ll be a whole lot more unfairness coming down the pike in the next four years.

One of the unfortunate things about some of the most passionate and idealistic people on the left is that they aren’t really interested in politics — they are on a sort of spiritual mission that actually conflicts with politics. I admire their committment, but if it is irrational, it helps the worst elements of the political system thrive.

I’m all for protesting as a tactic if it’s organized to make a political point. As emotional catharsis or an exercise of tribal identity it only hurts the ball club. I’m hoping that the NYC protest story is one entertaining and pointed “Billionaires For Bush” style political theatre, not anarchy in the streets.

If the worst happens, it should be noted, however, that one of the reasons that the 1968 convention anarchy was helpful to Nixon was that there had been a succession of real riots in various cities. There had been huge protests in the streets and on campus. There was tangible social upheaval in the country that made the confrontation with police at a political convention all the more dramatic. Nothing like that kind of civil unrest exists today (yet) so the backdrop that made the convention protests such a powerful image for Nixon to exploit as the “law and order” candidate isn’t there.

The best Bush can hope for is to make it a matter of “values.” I don’t know how much punch that really has, but it is true that the media loves to go all Claude Rains on us whenever there’s the tiniest hint of resistance to the bourgeois values that everybody pretends to hold (while they watch porn and pop prescription drugs.) If violence breaks out or someone does something too edgy you can bet that we’ll be treated to another huge dose of phony sanctimony from the millionaire celebrity press corpse.

They Just Lie.

Message to the media. Read this from Seeing The Forest. “They just lie” is the assumption from which you must begin when one of these “stories” starts to percolate. And you will find that by making that correct assumption you can have a good story, too. Lying on tape is a good story. If you think really hard you may remember that a few years back that you got quite a bit of mileage out of several along that line.

John O’Neil’s dirty trick against John Kerry has been exposed by one of the White House tapes featuring him talking to Richard Nixon. These are the same tapes that brought down Richard Nixon for dirty tricks thirty years ago.

Press Corpse — this is delicious, in case you haven’t noticed. It is beautiful symbolism. It is perfect symmetry. It is to make you believe in God.

If you can’t run with this, you have no business being scandal mongers. Remember, it’s all about you, It’s all about your ratings, your Q, your salary. Run little mediawhores, run. This one is just sitting there like a big juicy fig waiting for you to bite into it.

Group puts final blame on top Defense officials, but its chairman says ‘America’s enemies’ would benefit if Rumsfeld resigned.

The panel said the failures generally were caused by officers’ deciding to adopt interrogation practices used at the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and taking them much further than they should have, especially at overcrowded Abu Ghraib, where the Army was never fully in control.

“There was chaos at Abu Ghraib,” Schlesinger said at a news conference at the Pentagon that was called to release the report, one of several investigations launched after photographs of prisoner abuse surfaced last spring, stunning the world.

Though Schlesinger said the interrogators and prison guards were “directly responsible” for the abuse, the report, for the first time, directly blames senior Defense Department management for problems at Abu Ghraib.

The panel faulted top generals, including Sanchez, for misinterpreting higher orders and issuing a series of contradictory and confusing interrogation policies. And it criticized Rumsfeld for failing to adequately assemble legal and military experts to set interrogation parameters early in the Iraq occupation.

It also traced confusion over interrogation policies to a 2002 memo issued by President Bush that said Geneva Convention protections did not apply to Taliban and Al Qaeda suspects in custody. The panel said the memo led Sanchez to believe that “additional, tougher measures were warranted” in Iraq.

In addition, the investigators criticized senior military leaders for failing to anticipate the insurgency in Iraq after Saddam Hussein was toppled. When the resistance accelerated in the summer of 2003 and the prison population soared, commanders did little to adequately train or beef up security and intelligence operations at Abu Ghraib.

Rather, Schlesinger said, senior civilian and military leaders based their planning on what happened after the 1991 Persian Gulf War, when Kuwait was liberated from Iraq and no prolonged resistance followed.

“They did look at history books,” Schlesinger said. “Unfortunately, it was the wrong history.”

The abuse scandal, Schlesinger noted, has had a “chilling effect on interrogation operations.” U.S. agencies are getting far less intelligence because interrogators are fearful about the consequences of pushing detainees to talk, he said.

But he stopped well short of calling for Rumsfeld’s removal, saying it “would be a boon to all of America’s enemies, and consequently I think it would be a misfortune if it were to take place.” Schlesinger said that although commanders were not “focused” on detention operations, “we do not think it was a sufficient error to call for senior resignations.”

That’s an interesting interpretation of the old “we don’t give in to terrorists” trope. In this case we can’t fire an obviously incompetent official because our enemies would supposedly be pleased.

Meanwhile all this blather is seen by a billion Muslims as total crap:

Bush said the United States will move forward as other democracies have when mistakes are made. “Those mistakes will be investigated, and people will be brought to justice,” he said. “We’re an open society. We’re a society that is willing to investigate, fully investigate, in this case, what took place in that prison.”

The president said that the United States will punish those found guilty of abuse. “That stands in stark contrast to life under Saddam Hussein,” he said. “His trained torturers were never brought to justice under his regime. There were no investigations about mistreatment of people. There will be investigations. People will be brought to justice.”

All crap.

Jacuzzi Cases

Man, Junior must be fuming that yet another one of those hated 527’s is coming online with $10 million for more of those ads he’d really like to see stopped:

Group plans anti-Edwards ads

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) — A business-backed group plans to join the campaign fray in coming weeks by running ads in key swing states that are expected to attack Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards for his pre-Senate career as a trial lawyer.

The new group, called “The November Fund,” is co-chaired by Craig Fuller, who served as chief of staff to the president’s father, George H.W. Bush, when he was vice president, and Bill Brock, a former Republican senator.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is a key sponsor of The November Fund, which is organized as a so-called 527 group. Such groups are prohibited by law from coordinating activities with presidential campaign staffs or political parties.

The New York Times reported the Chamber and other groups plan to spend $10 million on ads attacking trial lawyers, including Edwards.

John Kerry’s selection of Edwards as his running mate on the Democratic ticket enraged some business leaders who have identified abusive lawsuits as a top priority for legislative reform.

“The impact of the trial bar’s influence on the legal, legislative, regulatory and economic decisions of an administration is impossible to calculate,” said Chamber President Tom Donohue, in a written statement announcing the formation of The November Fund.

Edwards has never disavowed the battles with businesses that were hallmarks of career as a trial lawyer in North Carolina. The candidate, who proudly describes himself as the “son of a mill worker,” says he became a lawyer in order to stand up for ordinary people against powerful interests — a theme that has echoed through his campaigns for public office.

Yes, the Chamber is non-partisan in the same the way the swift boat liars are independent. I’m sure Bush will be right out there condemning all vague “shadowy groups” again while Karl pulls all ten million dollars worth of strings from behind the curtain.

Maybe the trial lawyers need to get a little 527 of their own up and run a few ads featuring some of Edwards’ clients — the ones in the wheelchairs or missing body parts due to corporate cravenness.

Tricky Timing

I urge everyone to read this Liberal Oasis piece on smears. Smears are the most difficult tactic to combat in any campaign and it has been made even harder by the scandal junkies of cable TV and talk radio. There is no formula.

Fighting Smears

Maureen Dowd, like many backseat campaign managers, has never had to defend against a smear campaign.

Addressing a smear is one of the hardest, trickiest, most delicate things in politics.

Condemn it too early, you raise its profile and spread it places where it hadn’t been heard yet, and may never had been heard.

Wait too long, and it becomes perceived truth.

And there’s no textbook timeframe how long to wait, because every smear’s trajectory and potency is different.

Managing the timing is art, not science.

Those like Maureen Dowd — who said on Sunday that Kerry seemed to be “caught off guard” by the Swift Boat Liar attack, because he waited to respond — don’t know what they’re talking about.

Kerry surely knew this was coming.

Similar attacks began in February of this year. And he has successfully fought off such attacks in past campaigns, with the help of fellow vets.

Kerry was on guard. He simply was patient, trying to sense if the smear was gaining traction.

And he wanted to stick to his post-convention plan, touring battleground states, driving his messages from his acceptance speech, completing his introduction to the public.

Read the rest, it’s great.

I would just add that I think the “Kerry waitied too long” CW that’s forming is a media driven excuse that lets them off the hook. They know that they are responsible for allowing these assholes to be taken seriously at all and instead of taking responsibility for failing at their job they are blaming the victim. It’s an old story with these guys. “Oh he should have fought back a week earlier.” Well, if the press were in the business of journalism instead of bloodsport entertainment, they would have investigated these guys before they gave them hours and hours of airtime to spread their filthy little psychodrama all of over airwaves. The people who waited too long were the journalists.

Don’t fall for the hype. I heard all these talking heads today going on and on about how this has hurt Kerry and yet they have no evidence to back that up, other than their own guilt.

It reminds me of an earlier time when every single pundit idiot in washington predicted for month after month after month that Clinton was going down. They were just positive of it. “Any day now,” they said, “the American people are going to reject this deplorable behavior.” The screeched at the highest decibels on every cable show 24/7. Each new revelation was the smoking gun that was going to end his presidency. The 1998 election was supposed to be a deathblow.

And month after month after month more than 60% of the American people continued to support Clinton and the ’98 election was a blow out for the Democrats.

Don’t believe anything these people say about what “the American people” think. They are celebrities who have as much contact and understanding of everyday Americans as Madonna does. Wait for real data. We’ll know soon enough.