Digby's Hullabaloo Posts

Solipsism For Dummies

I know that it’s hard to understand why anyone would vote for George W. Bush, but the fact is that most people just don’t think he’s that bad. And the ones that listen to talk radio and watch FOX think he is a downright genius. Sometimes, the world doesn’t make much sense, does it?

Mark Kleiman tells it like it is:

A reader says:

Democrats are panicking because they aren’t thinking about how this election looks to the median voter. A partisan Democrat looks at Bush and sees: 1) upcoming disaster on Iraq and Al-Qaeda (latter brought about by former); 2) upcoming disaster on climate change and the environment; 3) upcoming disaster on the economy; 4) upcoming disaster on the Supreme Court. Then he or she wonders, “how in the world could anyone vote for this man? We’re going to hell in a handbasket! The fact that Kerry isn’t miles ahead shows that he’s an abysmal candidate, and can never win!” And then Kerry becomes Gore-ified, with the potential of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The problem with this model is that all these disasters are UPCOMING. Policy wonks, politically educated and motivated Democrats can see them (or at least they think they can). But there is absolutely no reason for the median voter to look at the situation that way. The voter is rationally ignorant. He or she is not going to spend time digging into policy details, considering potential budget models, etc. What does this voter see? The economy isn’t fabulous, but it isn’t terrible. Maybe there will be environmental problems, maybe not, but at this point, there isn’t anything in front of his or her face. Newsweek might say that Iraq is a disaster, but I don’t see it: maybe it’s just tough. I’m not comfortable with it; we probably made a mistake, but it’s not clear what we do now. Besides–in Vietnam, we were losing 2,000 soldiers A MONTH. We were told that Reagan’s deficits would kill us, but they didn’t: every economist has some model. I’m not real satisfied with the way things are going, but things could definitely be worse, and it’s tough out there. 9/11 taught us that.

All of this leads to basically what we have now: a very close election, with Bush up by a very small margin. That means that campaigning, and money, and turnout, and events, will determine things. But it is NOT a reason to think that somehow Kerry is doing a lousy job. WE think that no one in his right mind would vote for Bush, but we’re not the median voter.

Put another way, panic is the product of solipsism. It should stop.

I think it’s stopping. Dems are starting to recognize that as inexplicable as it is, this election is going to be close. So, maximize the strategy, get a slacker to the polls, volunteer to phone bank, download Liberal Oasis’s handy “suggested answers to tough questions about Kerry” and use them at the water cooler. Keep giving money.

For a variety of reasons this is a rare presidential race that will depend upon turn-out. That’s us.

Storyline

Drafts of a report from the top U.S. inspector in Iraq conclude there were no weapons stockpiles, but say there are signs the fallen Iraqi President Saddam Hussein had dormant programs he hoped to revive at a later time, according to people familiar with the findings.

…which explains why the “gathering danger” was so “grave” that we had to launch a war immediately, without allies, without enough troops and without a plan for reconstructing the country. There wasn’t time to put those things together before Saddam revived his dormant programs under the nose of the newly admitted weapons inspectors.

And it’s all worked out so very well:

The National Intelligence Council presented President Bush this summer with three pessimistic scenarios regarding the security situation in Iraq, including the possibility of a civil war there before the end of 2005.

In a highly classified National Intelligence Estimate, the council looked at the political, economic and security situation in the wartorn country and determined that — at best — a tenuous stability was possible, a U.S. official said late Wednesday, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

The document lays out a second scenario in which increased extremism and fragmentation in Iraqi society impede efforts to build a central government and adversely affect efforts to democratize the country.

In a third, worst-case scenario, the intelligence council contemplated “trend lines that would point to a civil war,” the official said. The potential conflict could be among the country’s three main populations — the Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds.

It “would be fair” to call the document “pessimistic,” the official added. But “the contents shouldn’t come as a particular surprise to anyone who is following developments in Iraq. It encapsulates trends that are clearly apparent.”

So, we rushed into the war for no good reason and things are going to hell in a handbasket. It’s likely that we have created far more danger for ourselves and others by these actions.

John Kerry thinks that it’s a mistake to rehire someone for a job if they’ve made these kinds of catastrophic errors:

Citing an intelligence estimate prepared for Mr. Bush in late July that presents a bleak picture of prospects in Iraq, Mr. Kerry said the president was turning his back on his own intelligence and ignoring the reality that Iraq was increasingly in the hands of terrorists.

“He didn’t tell you this,” Mr. Kerry said, even though “his own intelligence officials have warned him for weeks that the mission in Iraq is in serious trouble.”

“That is the hard truth, as hard as it is to bear,” he said, adding,

“I believe you deserve a president who isn’t going to gild that truth, or gild our national security with politics, who is not going to ignore his own intelligence, who isn’t going to live in a different world of spin, who will give the American people the truth, not a fantasy world of spin.”

What is this fantasy world of spin you speak of?

“This country is headed toward democracy,” Mr. Bush said at a Thursday morning campaign rally in St. Cloud, Minn., about five hours before Mr. Kerry made his remarks at the Guard conference. “There’s a strong prime minister in place. They have a national council, and national elections are scheduled for January. It wasn’t all that long ago that Saddam Hussein was in power with his torture chambers and mass graves.”

The Vice president thinks that the most important thing is that you make decisions, a simple and rather basic job description for the world’s most powerful position:

Vice President Dick Cheney campaigning in Reno, Nev., took issue with Kerry’s remarks at the National Guard convention. “Senator Kerry said today that leadership starts with telling the truth, but the American people also know that true leadership requires the ability to make a decision,” Cheney said.

Oddly, however, he doesn’t seem to think it matters if every single decision is wrong.

Pious Phony

Current and former White House aides, as well as religious leaders close to the president, maintain that underneath Bush’s religious references is a no-frills set of classical Christian beliefs that he holds firmly but voices softly.

Kevin Drum notices this new talking point that’s beginning to float around about Bush being a nice mainstream Christian instead of the fundamentalist zealot that many portray him to be. I read the same article in the Washington Post this morning and wondered about what “classical Christian” belief this was:

“Aides found him face down on the floor in prayer in the Oval Office. It became known that he refused to eat sweets while American troops were in Iraq, a partial fast seldom reported of an American president,” according to Stephen Mansfield author of “The Faith of George W. Bush.”

Now I’ve always wondered if he was really praying or if he’d had a few too many “pretzels” myself. (And as for the sweets thing, he must be jonesing for a candy bar big time, by now.)

Frankly, I don’t think Bush is the least bit religious. I think it’s as phony as the rest of him. Phony cowboy, phony flyboy, phony Christian. The only authentic thing about him is that he’s a self-centered fratboy who’s greatest faith is in his ability to get away with anything. A real Christian would never have made fun of Karla Faye Tucker the way he did. (A real human being would never have made fun of Karla Faye Tucker …)

Apparently the evangelicals have taken it on faith that this guy is one of them because his speech writer is adept at using familiar religious phrases and he often evokes God as his guiding spirit. But, it’s clear to me that he is nothing but a rich prick playing a role for people for whom he has nothing but contempt.

Man With A Plan

You know, I don’t know why Atrios is so upset about people like Woodruff and Gergen and Carlson obviously spewing RNC talking points about how Kerry has to come up with a plan for Iraq in order to win, but Bush doesn’t. The logic is obvious.

Suppose you hired a contractor to put on a new roof and he ended up creating a huge hole in it instead. The contractor simply denies that a hole exists and keeps telling you to relax that your new roof is coming along just fine. The other contractor in town drives by and says he can fix that hole in your roof. You ask him how and he says, “well, I’ll have to take a look at it and see how much damage is done but I have years of experience and a lot of good workers and I can get the job done for you. I’ll tell you one thing, that guy you’ve got working on it doesn’t know what he’s doing. The hole’s getting bigger while we stand here looking at it.”

Gergen, Woodruff and Carlson would pick the first contractor because they know his work. (And he’s a blast to have a beer with at the end of the workday.) The second guy refused to say exactly what he would do without looking at the damage up close so he can’t be trusted.

All of these people are very highly paid analysts and they know what they are doing. We should listen to them.

My Big Endorsement

After exposing the “undecideds” for the attention craving egomaniacs they are, Larry David more or less threatens them with my Slacker Project:

If we really had any brains, we wouldn’t spend another second on you, but on the people who can truly make a difference: the “unlikely” voters. And there are millions more of them than there are of you. Those people aren’t after attention, they’re just incredibly lazy. The only way they’ll register to vote is if someone shows up at their door with a form. And then the only way they’ll actually vote is if you carry them to the booth.

Not only are they lazy, they’re also indifferent. They just don’t believe that voting can have an effect on their lives. Well, it just so happens that right after I voted for the first time, I landed myself a big fat job in Hollywood, a biopsy came back benign and I met my future wife as soon as I walked out of the voting booth. Coincidence? You decide.

I’m telling you, all you have to do is get them registered and tell them that it will really mean a lot to you if they will vote for John Kerry. You’ll take care of the details of getting them registered, getting them absentee ballots or getting them to the polls.

Just one slacker per person, that’s all we need.

Cannibals

On the CNN morning show they just did a story on Jason Blair receiving $3,000 to speak at a college. Apparently, the students were not happy and gave Blair a very hard time.

One of the happy talking whores (the grizzled, creepy one) said, “who are they going to get next? Dan Rather?”

I thought I was watching FOX.

Maximizing The Strategy

Everybody needs to read Liberal Oasis every day. Bill Sher’s analysis of the way the game is played in invaluable. It will make you feel better and it will give you things to think about.

Today he has a long post up about our marching orders called “Your Mission: Maximize The Strategy.” The following is just a small excerpt and I urge you to read the whole thing:

At this stage of the game, those of us on the outside do the most good by helping the campaign execute strategy in the grassroots, not by rehashing strategy.

There may be news items to flag, and specific attack lines to suggest, but wholesale strategic overhauls are not worth batting around anymore.

And they can be debilitating.

What was worse in 2000?

The fact that Al Gore didn’t ask Bill Clinton to campaign much for him?

Or the fact that people wouldn’t shut up about whether Bill Clinton should campaign with him?

In that case, Gore had a tough call to make.

While partisans were convinced Clinton was gold on the campaign trail, polls showed he turned off a large chunk of independent voters.

Monday morning QBs still lambaste Gore for his call, under the “every decision was a bad decision” logic when assessing “losing” campaigns.

But to this day, they can’t be sure that a heavy dose of Clinton would have meant a popular vote loss too, or if it just wouldn’t have made a difference.

And we also don’t know what would have happened if the party just got in line and backed Gore’s strategy to the hilt.

I’ve been thinking about this all day and I think part of what is going on with us Democrats is that while it is natural to treat the race like it’s a sporting event our mistake is in thinking that we are the fans. We sit around the metaphorical bar and kibbitz about what the manager should and shouldn’t do. Don’t pull Pedro! That’s nuts!

But this isn’t a sporting event in which we are all observers. We are players in this game and it actually matters what we do and say. Our attitude, our intensity, or energy and our willingnesss to walk the precinct and put up signs and talk to our friends can all affect the outcome. The manager can’t listen to all of our conflicting advice, but he sure needs us to play to the best of our ability.

There’s a lot we can do and each of us has to figure out what that might be, from work on the ground to calling up Grandma Millie and making sure she’s registered to vote (and knows that Bush’s pals at Enron said they were screwing her during the energy crisis.)

And, the very least we can do is make sure that if the issue of politics comes up in our daily lives that we unequivocally say out loud that we support Kerry and think he’s a good man even as we make our case against Bush. (The ABB meme served its purpose and it’s counterproductive at this point.) Kerry’s working his ass off on our behalf to take down little Junior. We owe him some respect for that and we need to help him make that affirmative case for change.

Here’s a little idea for a personal political project that each of us can undertake. Surely, we all know one person who doesn’t usually vote, an apolitical type who isn’t interested. This country is crawling with them. This is the election to get them registered and make sure they vote, whether by sending them the link for an absentee ballot or offering to pick them up and take them to the polls on election day. Everybody knows somebody like this. If we all make sure that we each get one person to vote who wouldn’t otherwise give a damn, we win.

So, think about it. Which of your slacker friends can you get to vote this year? Take the initiative. They won’t mind. They don’t care. Make that work for us.

Nothing To Hide

February 13, 2004

Russert: But you authorize the release of everything to settle this?

President Bush: Yes, absolutely. We did so in 2000, by the way.

April 28, 2004

Q He’s bringing up an issue that was bounced around this room at length —

MR. McCLELLAN: And it’s been fully addressed, and all the records have been released, and the President fulfilled his duty and was proud to serve and be honorably discharged from the National Guard.

September 8, 2004

Q Will the Commander-in-Chief insist that his Pentagon get to the bottom, find every last document of the National Guard service?

MR. McCLELLAN: I think that’s what the President directed back in February.

Q Are you frustrated, or is he, that more documents are surfacing?

MR. McCLELLAN: All the personnel, payroll, and medical records have been made public, and the President directed back in February that the Department of Defense do a comprehensive search and make all the documents available, and we had assurances that they had done that and, unfortunately, we have since found out that it was not as comprehensive as we thought. So they’ve continued to go and look for additional documents.

Q Is the President frustrated, irritated by this?

MR. McCLELLAN: See, that’s why I pointed out that all the personnel, payroll and medical records have been released.

Q How do you know that?

MR. McCLELLAN: They’ve assured us that all those records are out, and in fact, you have those records.

WaPo September 16, 2004:

White House press secretary Scott McClellan hinted that more documents regarding Bush’s National Guard service may soon be released. Asked whether officials in the White House have seen unreleased documents, McClellan called that “a very real possibility.” Other officials with knowledge of the situation said more documents had indeed been uncovered and would be released in the coming days.

Hobgoblins

Geraldine Sealey of Salon.com reports:

Republican congressman Christopher Cox is asking for a formal congressional investigation into CBS News’ use of what he calls “apparently forged documents concerning the service record of George W. Bush intended to unfairly damage his reputation and influence the outcome of the 2004 presidential election.”

Less than a month ago, though, Cox used a different standard to judge the “Swift Boat Veterans for Truth,” whose every allegation about Kerry’s service in Vietnam turned out to be inaccurate and was most certainly intended to damage Kerry’s reputation and influence the outcome of the election — and was reported endlessly without appropriate skepticism in the media. From the CNN transcript:

“Blitzer: Chris Cox, you’re a good Republican. Should the president specifically denounce this ad put out by these Swift Boat Veterans for Truth?”

Cox: Well, this is obviously what’s going on now with campaign finance reform, 527s and so on. There’s a lot going on around the campaigns that the campaigns don’t control. I think that, for the candidates, the risk is, if you try and take ownership, either positively or negatively, of what’s going on around you, then it looks as if you’re even more involved. With respect to the facts underlying all of this, there was a book published by swift boat veterans. It ought to rise or fall on its own merits, just as with ‘Fahrenheit 9/11,’ which is loaded with factual inaccuracies.”

But Cox isn’t content to let CBS’ report “rise and fall” on its own merits. He wants Congress involved.

Yes. Christopher Cox is a little bit, shall we say, “inconsistent” about these matters. For instance, back in July 2003, he was very upset about another issue pertaining to media and the government:

U.S. Rep. Christopher Cox (R-Newport Beach), Chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security, sharply criticized a decision by the U.S. Secret Service to interrogate Pulitzer Prize-winning cartoonist Michael Ramirez about the subject of a recent editorial cartoon. The cartoon, based on an award-winning photograph from the Vietnam War, depicts Bush with his hands behind his back as a man labeled “Politics” prepares to shoot him in the head. The background of the drawing is a cityscape labeled “Iraq.”

“Those of us in Southern California are used to seeing Michael Ramirez’s political cartoons in the Los Angeles Times,” said Chairman Cox. “They are amusing, insightful, sometimes historical, sometimes biting—but never illegal. I was disappointed to read that the U.S. Secret Service, according to an agency spokesman, was considering ‘what action, if any, could be taken’ against Mr. Ramirez for his recent cartoon depicting political attacks on President Bush.

“The use of federal power to attempt to influence the work of an editorial cartoonist for the Los Angeles Times reflects profoundly bad judgment,” Chairman Cox said in a letter to Secret Service Director Ralph Basham.

You see, it is bad judgment to use federal power to influence the work of a conservative editorial cartoonist. A news organization making a controversial claim about the president is subject to a full congressional investigation, however. Anyone can understand that.

Stock Up For The Season

If anyone’s looking for some unusual political buttons or stickers to go along with their Kerry/Edwards stuff, check out pinkObuttons.com.