The state Democratic Party chairman said Friday that GOP leaders should denounce a state lawmaker who urged Republicans to disrupt a campaign event by supporters of presidential candidate John Kerry.
In a news release, the DFL Party included an e-mail that Rep. Bill Kuisle had sent to Olmsted County Republicans, urging them to attend an event in Rochester on Friday featuring singer Carole King and the group Minnesota Women for John Kerry.
Kuisle provided the details of the event and said, “If anyone can go and harass it would be appreciated. Bill.”
[…]
Randy Wanke, a spokesman for the state Republican Party, said it’s hard to take the criticism seriously given that Erlandson “didn’t condemn the Democrats who heckled the President in Duluth,” where Bush campaigned in July, and other disturbances at Bush rallies.
Yes, the two parties are equivalently malignant this way. Except that Bush supporters are routinely allowed their freedom of speech to heckle Kerry and do it quite often. Bush on the other hand deals with it differently:
Officially, the Secret Service does not concern itself with unarmed, peaceful demonstrators who pose no danger to the commander in chief. But that policy was inoperative here Thursday when seven AIDS activists who heckled President Bush during a campaign appearance were shoved and pulled from the room — some by their hair, one by her bra straps — and then arrested for disorderly conduct and detained for an hour.
After Bush campaign bouncers handled the evictions, Secret Service agents, accompanied by Bush’s personal aide, supervised the arrests and detention of the activists and blocked the news media from access to the hecklers.
The Bush campaign has made unprecedented efforts to control access to its events. Sometimes, people are required to sign oaths of support before attending events with Bush or Vice President Cheney. At times, buses of demonstrators are diverted by police to idle in parking lots while supporters are waved in. And the Secret Service has played an unusual role; one agent cooperated with a plan by the Bush campaign last month to prevent former senator Max Cleland (Ga.), a Kerry ally, from handing a letter to the agent outside Bush’s Texas ranch.
Sullywatch takes the intriguing position that the left blogosphere should actively debunk these Killian documents because they are forgeries from the right meant to be exposed as such to discredit the news media and the left blogosphere if we fall for them. Therefore, we should get ahead of that and expose them ourselves. That’s an interesting idea. We all know that Rove has a history of such dirty tricks. But, I believe that there is almost no chance that we will ever prove that Rove’s fingerprints are on this, so if they are forgeries it is actually more likely to be pinned on our side than theirs just because it’s the simpler more obvious explanation. I guess I don’t buy that by helping to expose the fraud that Democrats would not be blamed anyway.
In the bigger picture, I actually did not suggest that lefty bloggers had an obligation to actively embrace the documents. I don’t think it matters one way or the other because a huge news organization has its reputation resting on this and they are highly motivated to see them proven valid. But, I also don’t see any strategic benefit in actively helping the other side enact a tactical misdirection, for the reason I stated above. Even if an alleged forger is exposed, I don’t think the truth of who was behind it will ever be known and even more depressing, even if it is, I don’t think more than half the people will believe it.
On one point, I seriously disagree with my esteemed blogger comrade. I absolutely do not believe that the left blogosphere will be granted points for integrity or for credibility and furthermore I think that we will either be discredited or ignored by the other side no matter what we do. And, there is no mediator to decide who’s right and wrong. It depends on who you believe. Certainly, the consensus of belief that your past performance translates into credibility down the road no longer exists. For instance, this morning’s LA Times approvingly quoted Charles Johnson of Little Green Footballs, a site that pushed the Swift Boat Lies relentlessly, (not to mention that he is racist and xenophobic to an extreme.) They also discussed Free Republic and Drudge without mentioning that they are wrong about virtually everything.
Modern politics is epistomological quicksand and relativism is the order of the day. There will be no reckoning. Therefore, if the documents actually are forgeries or if they aren’t isn’t really relevant to the larger point. Being factually right or factually wrong does not necessarily accrue to our benefit not does it discredit us. All that matters is how the story plays out in the media’s and public’s perceptions.
Which brings me to Steve Gilliard’s argument. I stand behind my statement that this was a masterful play on the right. We had 60 Minutes, the most respected news show on television just set back on its heels by the Mighty Wurlitzer (joined by it’s newest players, LGF and Free Republic) within twenty four hours. What was a confluence of stories from CBS, the Globe the AP and others revealing that Bush got many more favors in the Guard than previously known was reduced to an arcane argument about typewriters almost immediately. Compare that to the Swift Boat controversy which played out in great detail over the course of a month.
I agree that Rove would rather not have the story be about Bush being AWOL, and he certainly wishes the story would go away entirely. But given the choice between having the press discuss the substance of the charges or typewriter fonts and duelling document experts I think it’s clear he would choose the latter. From the look of the Sabbath Gasbag shows, it may be dying more quickly than it came alive. When the major media all decide that “the story” is based upon bogus information they all drop it. It looks as if that may be exactly what happened.
Finally, my post Dupes and Skeptics was aimed at the media. I frankly don’t believe that anything the left blogosphere did on this story helped or hurt. It wasn’t our play and we were more or less irrelevant. What I do see is that the right blogosphere has now become an integral part of the Mighty Wurlitzer and I have to grant grudging respect for its power and effectiveness. We underestimate them at our peril.
My post was widely seen as being defeatist, which I think is unfortunate. I do admit that I am deeply cynical about the way politics and the media intersect these days but the truth is that I believe that the Democrats can certainly win, both on superior substance and with superior strategy. But, I maintain that we are not going to get there by relying on rules that don’t apply anymore — rules about credibility and fairness and factual integrity. It’s difficult, I admit, to know where the lines are and whether we should or should not cross them. It’s hard to let go of the idea that truth and reality will out.
The political world I see is one dominated by media manipulation and marketing and public relations in which reality is not as important as the perception of reality. I think we adapt to that or we cease to survive. I certainly believe that we can do it. We are, after all, the smart people.
A big article in the news pages of the LA Times this morning. (The best thing about it is that Instapundit isn’t mentioned even once.)
No Disputing It: Blogs Are Major Players
Netizen’s late-night post questioning CBS claims about Bush’s service spreads at warp speed.
These days, CBS News anchor Dan Rather and his colleagues at the network’s magazine program “60 Minutes II” are enduring an unusual wave of second-guessing by some of the public and fellow journalists.
For that, they can thank “Buckhead.”
It was a late-night blog posting by this mystery Netizen that first questioned the validity of documents Rather cited Wednesday as proof that George W. Bush did not fulfill his National Guard duty more than 30 years ago.
Buckhead refuses to further identify himself, other than dropping hints that he is a male who lives on the East Coast — preferring to proclaim that the scramble to verify the contentions in his posting marks an extraordinary achievement for a medium that has operated more as an underground world of ideological venting than a source of legitimate news.
But Buckhead is vehement about one thing: He acted alone when he posted, to the conservative website FreeRepublic.com, what was widely believed to be the first allegation that the CBS report relied on documents that could have been forged.
“Absolutely, positively, on my own, sitting at my computer in my bedroom just before midnight — but not in my pajamas,” he wrote in an e-mail exchange with The Times. “But once I posted the comment to Free Republic I was no longer working alone, and that is the real point of the story about the story about the story.”
That story began Wednesday, 19 minutes after the “60 Minutes II” broadcast began, when another FreeRepublic poster, TankerKC, noted that the documents were “not in the style that we used when I came into the USAF…. Can we get a copy of those memos?”
Less than four hours later, Buckhead pointed to “proportionally spaced fonts” in the memos, which CBS said had been written in the early 1970s by Bush’s commanding officer, Lt. Col. Jerry Killian, who died in 1984. Buckhead concluded that the documents had been drafted on a modern-day word processor rather than a typewriter.
“I am saying these documents are forgeries, run through a copier for 15 generations to make them look old,” Buckhead wrote. “This should be pursued aggressively.”
And it was — with startling speed.
Early Thursday morning, Minneapolis lawyer Scott Johnson was in his basement home office, preparing to link some morning news reports to the site he co-authors, when a reader sent an e-mail about Buckhead.
Intrigued, Johnson, whose online ID is “The Big Trunk,” put a link on his site, PowerLine Blog.com, to Buckhead’s post.
Then the floodgates opened.
[…]
Soon Charles Johnson, a Los Angeles musician-turned-conservative-blogger who hosts the site LittleGreenFootballs.com, posted the results of his own investigation. He wrote that he had opened Microsoft Word, set the font to Times New Roman and used the program’s default settings to retype a purported Killian memo from August 1973.
[…]
Within 90 minutes of that post, the Power Line site was linked to perhaps the best-known conservative site of all — the Drudge Report, made famous when Matt Drudge took a lead role in the first reports on the relationship between then-President Clinton and Monica Lewinsky.
[…]
Suddenly, the story line shifted from the question Democrats had been trying to ask — whether Bush received special treatment in the Guard — to whether a network long detested by conservatives had been duped in its quest to air a report critical of the president in the midst of the reelection campaign.
Journalists at mainstream media outlets rushed to consult with experts to check the validity of the documents. The claims of seemingly legitimate analysts posting commentary online could not be ignored.
“If the blog enthusiasts wanted to write a better scenario, they’d have a hard time coming up with one more spectacular than this one,” said Jim Geraghty, host of the Kerry Spot blog published by the conservative National Review, whose e-mail queue was filled by font experts from across the nation wanting to weigh in.
[…]
“It was amazing Thursday to watch the documents story go from FreeRepublic.com, a bastion of right-wing lunacy, to Drudge to the mainstream media in less than 12 hours,” said Jim Jordan, a strategist for independent Democratic groups opposed to Bush.
“That’s not to say the documents didn’t deserve examination. But apparently the entire thing was cooked up by a couple of amateurs on Free Republic. The speed with which it moved was breathtaking.”
By Friday, articles in The Times, the Washington Post and other news outlets were quoting some analysts raising questions about the CBS documents, and others saying it was impossible to judge the memos’ authenticity without seeing the originals.
[…]
Media experts said the role of the bloggers illustrated a significant development in the relationship between mainstream news and the still-nascent phenomenon of blogging.
This was the first time, some said, that the Web logs were engaging in their own form of investigative journalism — and readers, they warned, should be cautious.
“The mainstream press is having to follow them,” said Jeffrey Seglin, a professor at Emerson College in Boston. “The fear I have is: How do you know who’s doing the Web logs?
“And what happens when this stuff gets into the mainstream, and it eventually turns out that the ’60 Minutes’ documents were perfectly legitimate, but because there’s been so much reporting about what’s being reported, it has already taken on a life of its own?”
“All hail ‘Buckhead,’ ” wrote one posting to Free Republic.
“Here, here,” wrote another. “But how do we know Buckhead is really not Karl Rove…”
This is really a testament to the right wing echo chamber, not blogging per se. They had a conduit to get this information into the mainstream quickly. Had our side done the same thing it would have taken days to get the attention of the mainstream.
We don’t have a Drudge, which is an absolutely necessary bridge from the internet to the mainstream media.
Craig Crawford notes that if swing voters are turned off by the negative tone of the campaign and don’t vote, it would turn the election “into a test of the turnout strength of each side’s faithful.”
“That, sadly, would put the next four years in the hands of those seduced by the shrill sound of ideological zealotry. Such people should not be labeled ‘true believers,’ because they have allowed themselves to believe the most ridiculous lies being spread, frequently on the Internet, about one candidate or the other. Rabid Democrats insist that Bush and Cheney sent young Americans to their death in Iraq just to make money for Halliburton. Equally rabid Republicans insist that Kerry deliberately shot himself for a war medal.”
“If these are the people who now decide elections, Heaven help us.”
Yes, it’s definitely better that 17 uninformed morons who would refuse to vote based upon their dislike of all that icky “negativity” do the deciding. Those are the kind of citizens that make this country great.
The best way to show your respect for those who died three years ago today is to read the 9/11 Commission Report. You can download it here or you can get it at any bookstore.
It is a harrowing account of years of political confusion leading up to an administration that pushed it down the list of priorities to that final day of reckoning.
That the man who presided over that day, with all his early inattention and his terrible performance at the time and in all the days that have followed, may be rewarded with another term is sobering indeed.
Not that it matters, because the echo chamber seems to have made a decision, but there are a couple of interesting articles today in the SF Gate (“Authenticity backed on Bush documents”) and the Boston Globe (“Some skeptics now say IBM typewriter could have been used”) about the premature conclusions reached by the so-called experts in typewriter-gate. There are some who are sticking to their guns but at least two of them are questionable themselves.
I would like to see someone do a thorough forensic investigation on how the skepticism on the memos made its way so quickly into the mainstream. This is a good start. What it says is that once again, the Mighty Wurlitzer played the press for chumps. And, I suppose it won’t be the last time because press feels no shame or guilt about falling for GOP super-spin time after time.
Today, we hear the startling news that General Hodges now says he was misled into believing that the memos were handwritten, which for some reason is supposed to make a difference. He claims that he said, “well if he wrote them, that’s what he felt.”
According to the Washington Post, the conversation went like this:
A senior CBS official, who asked not to be named because CBS managers did not want to go beyond their official statement, named one of the network’s sources as retired Maj. Gen. Bobby W. Hodges, the immediate superior of the documents’ alleged author, Lt. Col. Jerry B. Killian. He said a CBS reporter read the documents to Hodges over the phone, and Hodges replied that “these are the things that Killian had expressed to me at the time.”
Now, it’s possible that CBS is just lying outright on a story that was guaranteed to put the entire Republican establishment into a frenzy. Or, perhaps they were terribly sloppy. If you believe Hodges today that is what you have to assume because whether or not these memos were handwritten is irrelevant if they were simply read to Hodges over the phone. And the quote from CBS is entirely different from the one that Hodges claims he gave them.
I will take the big leap here and say that the likely scenario is that when Hodges heard that they had these memos he figured he might as well tell the truth, which was that they reflected Killian’s feelings as he remembered them. After the memos were called into question he lied about what he told CBS. (I would say that he’d better be sure they didn’t have it on tape, but then the tape will be called a forgery and we’d be back on the merry-go-round.) Logic says that CBS, being a professional news organization, knew that this was an explosive story and was extremely careful with its quotes.
None of the hysterical forensic evidence produced so far has held up. The Boston Globe article pretty well establishes that the “experts” who were contacted by the Post and others in the first cycle had their heads up their asses about what was and wasn’t in use during the period. Nobody, as far as I know, has done the basic forensic task of comparing Killian’s other memos of the period with these, which would probably shed real light on the subject.
Meanwhile, Killian’s wife and son, who if you believe them must have spent many Thanksgivings and Christmases engaged in fond recollections of that fine first Lieutenant George W. Bush, say that they know their husband/father wouldn’t have written those memos. And according to the LA Times this influenced Hodges on the issue:
On Friday night, retired Maj. Gen. Hodges, Killian’s former supervisor, said in an interview that he also now believes the documents are not real — in part because of the statements of Killian’s relatives.
Certainly it is very common for wives to have intimate knowledge of the work memo stylings of their husbands and can vouch for their reliability 30 years after the fact. One should always believe them over a man like Robert Strong, a friend and colleague of Killian who ran the TANG administrative office in the Vietnam era, and who said on camera:
“They are compatible with the way business was done at the time. They are compatible with the man that I remember Jerry Killian being,” says Strong. “I don’t see anything in the documents that is discordant with what were the times, what was the situation and what were the people involved.”
His testimony was very interesting and nobody gives a damn. What he said was that the TANG of the period was completely corrupt. That the kind of favors being granted to rich little chickenhawks like George W. Bush were commonplace. I know that it doesn’t speak directly to whether the documents are real but it’s a helluva lot more relevant than whether Mrs Killian thinks that Lil’ Georgie Bush was a nice boy.
Interestingly,in the LA Times Hodges seemed to walk back a little bit on what he said to ABC:
He also said that he could not recall any conversations in which Killian had complained about Bush’s performance or about the fact that Bush failed in August 1972 to take a physical exam, removing him from flight status
“I have no recollection of anything like that happening,” said Hodges. “It’s possible we did talk about the physical not happening, because we would have to ground him.”
In other words, after he’d shot his mouth off, Hodges remembered that he signed off on the grounding. It goes on:
The retired Guard general, who favors the president’s reelection, called Bush “a truly outstanding pilot.” He called Killian “a good guy” who “ran a tight ship” and might have had concerns about Bush’s service.
“But he was maybe a little bit too conscientious, because he wanted his pilots to do everything perfect,” Hodges said. “Pilots, like everyone else, are not perfect. [Killian] was conscientious to a fault.”
So, if the memos do turn out to be real, it was Killian’s fault because he was a tight ass perfectionist about pilots being qualified to fly million dollar airplanes.
(Still think this guy didn’t tell CBS what they say he told them?)
Perhaps we will never know what the truth is, but we do know three very important things.
First, contrary to the malarky that the Wurlitzer began circulating almost immediately, every single so-called anomoly in the douments that made them questionable could have been produced by typewriters in use at the time. The press jumped the gun and the “experts” were wrong.
Second, CBS had every reason to be extremely careful with its quotes on this story. Hodges, the Bush supporter, has every reason to lie about what he told CBS now that the documents have been called into question. His babbling about handwritten vs typewritten makes no sense. He admits that Killian had very high standards and didn’t hold with pilots not meeting them. Therefore, it’s not reasonable to assume that Hodges saying that he told CBS “if he wrote it, it must be true” is more credible than CBS’s original quote. Indeed, it is ridiculous.
Third, the statements of Killian’s family are irrelevant compared to the statement of Strong who handled Killian’s work documents and others like it at the time. Unless you believe that spouses and children have better direct knowledge of workplace events than co-workers, that is the only conclusion to which you can come.
But, that is not going to be the story. From this point forward it will be who in John Kerry’s campaign (Clinton??) forged the documents:
Q Scott, on the National Guard documents, do you have any suspicions about their authenticity?
MR. McCLELLAN: We don’t know whether the documents were fabricated or are authentic. You know, the media has talked to independent experts who have raised questions about the documents. CBS has not disclosed where the documents came from. But, regardless, it does not — the documents do not change the facts. The President met his obligations and was honorably discharged. And the one thing that is clear is the timing and the coordination going on here. There is an orchestrated effort by Democrats and the Kerry campaign to tear down the President because of the direction the polls are moving. And it’s not surprising that we’re seeing the same old recycled attacks. The Democrats are determined to throw the kitchen sink at us, and I suspect this is just the beginning.
Q When you use the word “coordination,” it seems to suggest in a legal sense that the Kerry campaign is illegally coordinating with the 527 —
MR. McCLELLAN: It’s clear. I mean, look at the media reports, they’ve documented the coordinated efforts by Democrats to tear down the President here, because they’re falling behind in the polls. You look at the — The Washington Post had a story about it today, talking about the multi-front effort by the Democratic National Committee, other Democrats. You have outrageous comments being made by Senator Harkin. You have the Democratic National Committee using the term “Operation Fortunate Son.” “Fortunate Son” was the name of a book by an ex-convict that was widely discredited in the 2000 campaign.
This whole pushback by the right, from the blogosphere to the Wurlitzer to the Whitehouse, is absolutely masterful. And, it should give everyone pause if they think there is even a snowball’s chance in hell that any member of the Bush administration will ever get justice for the crimes they have committed while in office. Clearly, the press and much of the public are so willing to be used that it is hopeless. This entire episode is nothing but a pathetic reminder of how easily they manipulate perceptions.
We’d better be content to congratulate ourselves for having integrity because it’s clear that we do not get any public credit for it. Indeed, we are perceived as being just as bad as they are. If that’s the case, does it even matter that we aren’t?
Re: “Hospitals Are Gouging the Uninsured,” Commentary, Sept. 7: Ruth Rosen’s article regarding hospital bills to the uninsured focused on one issue of our current healthcare crisis and ignored many more.
[…]
Rosen uses the example of single mothers who work at Wal-Mart but can’t afford their “unaffordable” health premium. I agree this happens to some. But, in my experience, for most it is about financial responsibility and responsible decision-making.
Many lower-income employees can afford the premiums; it just means they may have to prioritize and possibly give up the cellphone, keep the used car another year or two or give up a $5 pack of cigarettes each day. Or, God forbid, develop healthful dietary and exercise routines.
Gordon Tagge MD.
Those poor people would be able to afford the four or five hundred a month in insurance premiums if they’d completely give up their car and walk. It’s good exercise. And if only they stopped eating so much they’d lose weight and be healthier.
Clearly, being unable to afford health insurance is another bullshit socialist excuse for being lazy.
Since 2000, the cost of employee health insurance has risen 59%, Kaiser found, and workers’ share of their health insurance premiums has surged 57% for individual coverage and 49% for a family. During that period, wages increased just 12% — 2.2% this year.
Well, maybe they could give up shelter, too. There are plenty of gas station bathrooms to clean up in before they walk to work. There is simply no excuse for them to not pay for their health insurance.
I think the Poorman has finally found the way to properly evaluate the claims of document forgeries:
Let me save everyone a whole lot of time. They are genuine. How do I know? Because the internet is currently awash in wingnuts claiming the memos are fakes. Ergo, they are for real. Q.E.D.
Some people may feel that I’m just being flip here. Is that so, some people? Tell me: how rich would you be right now if, every time something was posted on a right-wing message board, or everytime Drudge had an exclusive, or any time Rush Limbaugh revealed a secret truth that the liberal media won’t tell you, you called up your bookie and put down $20 even money on “bullshit”? The correct answer is: “pretty fucking rich”. The correct answer is: “I would never, never lose.” So, if anyone doubts my methodology, I have a crisp new $20 bill that just told me that I’m 100% right and you’re just too dumb to see it. If any of you champs out there think me and Andrew Jackson are both wrong, well then, today’s your lucky day, because we’re paying 2:1. If you need us, we’ll be on the couch playing ESPN NHL 2K5. Peace.
And, I’ll be drinking cheap wine in an undisclosed location. I’m convinced.
As we think about the relentlessness of the Republican machine and its propensity for playing hardball, it pays sometimes to remember that their ruthless tactics are actually a matter of temperament rather than ideology. Conservatives have always been this way. The problem today is that they are operating with a radical agenda, an incompetent president and a country with much too much power to be allowed to run wild with either.
This interesting post from Steamboats Are Ruining Everything takes us back to 1820 and reminds us that brutish conservatives are nothing new:
William Hazlitt explained the nature of it in his 1820 essay, “On the Spirit of Partisanship.”
Conservatives and liberals play the game of politics differently, Hazlitt wrote, because they have different motivations. Liberals are motivated by principles and tend to believe that personal honor can be spared in political combat. They may, in fact, become vain about their highmindedness. Hazlitt condemns the mildness as a mistake, both in moral reasoning and in political strategy. “They betray the cause by not defending it as it is attacked, tooth and nail, might and main, without exception and without remorse.”
The conservatives, on the other hand, start with a personal interest in the conflict. Not wishing to lose their hold on power, they are fiercer. “We”—i.e., the liberals, or the “popular cause,” in Hazlitt’s terminology—“stand in awe of their threats, because in the absence of passion we are tender of our persons.
They beat us in courage and in intellect, because we have nothing but the common good to sharpen our faculties or goad our will; they have no less an alternative in view than to be uncontrolled masters of mankind or to be hurled from high—
“To grinning scorn a sacrifice,
And endless infamy!”
They do not celebrate the triumphs of their enemies as their own: it is with them a more feeling disputation. They never give an inch of ground that they can keep; they keep all that they can get; they make no concessions that can redound to their own discredit; they assume all that makes for them; if they pause it is to gain time; if they offer terms it is to break them: they keep no faith with enemies: if you relax in your exertions, they persevere the more: if you make new efforts, they redouble theirs. While they give no quarter, you stand upon mere ceremony. While they are cutting your throat, or putting the gag in your mouth, you talk of nothing but liberality, freedom of inquiry, and douce humanité. Their object is to destroy you, your object is to spare them—to treat them according to your own fancied dignity. They have sense and spirit enough to take all advantages that will further their cause: you have pedantry and pusillanimity enough to undertake the defence of yours, in order to defeat it. It is the difference between the efficient and the inefficient; and this again resolves itself into the difference between a speculative proposition and a practical interest.
It is not fair play, and Hazlitt thinks that liberals who decline to fight fire with fire are fools. “It might as well be said that a man has a right to knock me on the head on the highway, and that I am only to use mildness and persuasion in return, as best suited to the justice of my cause; as that I am not to retaliate and make reprisal on the common enemies of mankind in their own style and mode of execution.”
Hazlitt was right. And never more than today when the stakes are so high.
As I said, we have been fighting this beast forever. Conservatives are just more inclined to fight and more serious about winning. But, I have seen the Republican agenda change from conservative to radical in the last 30 years and their candidates from steady, stolid leaders to firebrands and incompetents. America is the most powerful nation on earth. If the modern GOP boasted prudent, tested leadership and a simple desire to avoid radical change, I would still oppose them but I would not be worried. But, these people want to wildly experiment on a global scale and their track record of the last three years is devastating. History proves that bad things do sometimes happen. Being barely left standing to say “I told you so” will be no compensation.
Liberal Oasis has a typically trenchant take on the latest polls that comports with my gut feeling about the state of the race at this moment. There’s plenty of good news, so go ahead and click the link and read the whole thing. But I’d like to focus on a specific point that I think we still need to keep in mind:
There’s no getting around Kerry’s negatives were raised by the GOP convention onslaught.
Even in the dead heat polls, Kerry lost ground in areas like leadership, personality, ability to fight terror, flip-flopping and favorability.
Of course, there’s still conflicting data.
In the Gallup poll, Kerry’s favorable-unfavorable rating is 53-43, down from 57-37 after the Dem convention.
Not good, but manageable (Bush is a similar 55-44).
The CBS poll, which appears not to have pushed undecideds to choose, has far worse data for Kerry: 32-41 (with Bush at 47-39).
Can a candidate win with unfavorables in the 40s?
Well, yes. Bill Clinton did in 1992.
Near the end of the race, his fav-unfav was similarly polarizing and conflicting: 51-45 (Gallup), 52-45 (LA Times) and 33-39 (CBS/NYT).
It’s not that there was widespread love for Clinton, who was dogged with attacks on his “character” by Poppy Bush, and won with just 43%.
In fact, a late CNN/Time poll had vastly more people saying Poppy was more “honest and trustworthy” than Clinton.
But Poppy’s fav-unfav was still worse than Clinton, with his unfavorables generally in the low 50s.
That’s Kerry goal, to jack up Bush’s negatives.
Like any Bush campaign, this race will be filled with muck, making it impossible to stay positive and generate warm feelings.
Kerry can’t expect his unfavorable numbers to go back down to the 30s.
But with Bush probably at his high-water mark, just after his convention, Kerry should be able to get Bush’s unfavorables higher than his.
This is not to say Kerry shouldn’t try to talk himself up and articulate his compelling, alternative agenda.
It’s always a balancing act: promoting yourself, tearing down the other guy.
And since Kerry can’t single-handedly put this campaign on the high road, going after Bush is the bigger priority.
One of the keys roles that we in the blogosphere could play is to keep hurling the negative crap out there, build on good stories from the widely read blogs like Atrios and kos and just keep up a relentless pace. If the Killian documents prove to be a distraction from the ongoing negative stuff, just pull back and pick something else. There is plenty to choose from. This isn’t pretty, but it’s absolutely necessary to raise Bush’s negatives over the next couple of months and to do that we have to be a bit….icky.
Kitty Kelley’s book has some interesting items, I’m sure. Sy Hersh could provide a new angle. Cheney says something stupid almost every day. We should take a page from Rove and Cheney and Card and Condi and do as they did when they were building their case against Saddam. “We just keep hurling stuff against the wall and hope that some of it sticks.”
I know it sounds unattractively shrill to keep pointing this out, and there are those who do not believe that anything substantial will change in everyday Americans’ lives if Bush is elected to a second term, but I truly believe that winning this election is more vitally important than any in my lifetime. (My first typewriter was a manual, which after our recent crash course in typewriter history should tell you that I’ve observed a few.) George W. Bush and the modern Republican party are not business as usual.
I think the country is far more likely to survive a negative campaign from the Democrats than endorsing what George W. Bush has been doing for the last three years and validating the very worst beliefs about America all over the world. This is as serious a problem as terrorism itself. We just have to win.