Veteran Vice President
Ron Brownstein suggest that Kerry needs to pick a VP with national security cred and I couldn’t agree more.
Conventional wisdom among Democratic strategists has been that sooner or later national security will recede as a concern and bread-and-butter domestic issues will decide the presidential election. One senior party operative recently offered what he called the Google theory of 2004: If an Internet search about the campaign the day after the election turns up more references to Iraq than to the economy, that probably means President Bush has won.
But the continuing violence in Iraq is shaking these assumptions. It’s no longer certain that domestic issues such as jobs and healthcare will displace Iraq as the central focus of public attention and the campaign debate. Nor is it certain that sustained attention on Iraq will benefit the president.
This transformed landscape will challenge both Bush and his Democratic opponent, Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts.
The dangers for Bush are most obvious. Iraq is his war.
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CBS/New York Times survey released last week showed that approval of Bush’s handling of the war plummeted to 41%, dragging his overall approval rating below the 50% level that historically marks the dividing line between presidents who win reelection and those who don’t.
Those numbers are certain to fluctuate in the months ahead. Yet they underscore the threat to the president. The centerpiece in his case for reelection is that he has been a resolute and effective manager in the war on terrorism.
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But that doesn’t mean Kerry will automatically benefit. Instead, he faces a paradox. The more Americans focus on Iraq, the more they seem to weigh credibility as commander in chief when choosing between the candidates.
And despite their anxieties about the occupation, far more Americans say they trust Bush rather than Kerry to safeguard the nation’s security.
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Perhaps the most pressing challenge for Kerry is to find ways beyond his biography to reassure Americans that he can be trusted to protect their security.
One of Kerry’s best opportunities to send that message could come through his selection of a running mate. So far, though, there’s little evidence that the campaign is thinking in that direction. The rumors in Democratic circles are focused almost entirely on those who would help Kerry most on domestic issues: Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri and Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa.
Conspicuously missing from that list are candidates who could reinforce Kerry’s national security credentials.
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Even more intriguing is a name that has attracted even less attention: former NATO Supreme Commander and 2004 Democratic presidential contender Wesley K. Clark. The irony is that Clark probably would be generating more buzz as a potential vice president if he hadn’t sought his party’s nomination. The consensus in Democratic circles is that the retired Army general dimmed his prospects through an uneven performance on the campaign trail.
Yet those experiences left Clark with more preparation for a vice presidential campaign than if he hadn’t run at all. And he has proven one of the Democrats’ most acute analysts and effective messengers on national security: His speeches on Iraq last fall, which called for broadening international participation in the occupation and warned against dismantling the entire Iraqi army, look prescient now.
Last week, Clark underscored the potential value of a running mate who once wore four stars on his shoulders and a Silver Star on his chest when he responded to recent Republican attacks on Kerry’s activities in and after Vietnam with a ringing challenge: “Those who didn’t serve, or didn’t show up for service,” he wrote, “should have the decency to respect those who did … ”
As a candidate, Clark demonstrated plenty of flaws. But few other Democrats could deliver a punch like that with such authority. And none could better symbolize Kerry’s determination to rebuild relations with traditional allies than the man who directed, in Kosovo, the one war NATO ever fought. In an election that could revolve more around guns than butter, Clark may pack more firepower than any of the other names on Kerry’s list of running mates.
Democratic conventional wisdom, it appears, is the same conventional wisdom that advised Kerry to vote for the war resolution and advised Democrats in 2002 to pretend that Bush wasn’t riding all over the country on a metaphorical white horse, swinging his terrible swift sword while they labored in town hall meetings debating the fine points of prescription drug coverage. As it was then, this conventional wisdom is wrong.
Rove is pulling out all his guns to neutralize Kerry’s war record because he knows it’s the national security issue that is the biggest threat to President Asterisk’s ascension to the ranks of legally elected presidents. The Scumbags For Truth is just the beginning. And, over the next 6 months, it is likely to take its toll.
As my 4 regular readers know, I have long believed that this election was going to be about national security whether we like it or not. Events are taking us there as much as the machinations of the Bush campaign. They must run on Bush’s “gut” or lose. It is wishful thinking to believe that the election will be about jobs and health care, as much as we would like to believe that everybody is voting on those kitchen table issues and despite the fact that focus groups say that’s what they want to hear the candidates talk about. What they say they want and what they actually want are often far from the same thing.
From what I can tell, the zeitgeist suggests that what voters want this time is a masculine man of action. Karl Rove knows this, which is why he is resorting to South Carolina level dirty tricks this early in the campaign. His inarticulate little boy isn’t looking so good. Kerry’s war record must be put into play and it must be destroyed. And there are always willing Scumbags For Truth around to do that dirty work.
I like Clark and think he could be an effective counterweight to that charge as VP. They’ll attack his claim to heroism too, of course, but one wonders if they could really persuade the country that two silver star winners, one a 4 star General, are lacking in patriotism. I’m sure they’ll try, but at some point enough of the non-koolaid drinking public has to start asking themselves if it’s reasonable that every single Democratic war hero, from Kerry to Kerrey to Cleland to Clark are all traitors and cowards who got some sort of special treatment.
Regardless of whether it’s Clark or someone else, I think Kerry should pick a veteran for VP. I think it’s obvious that Iraq and the WOT are the central issues of our time. We must confront it head-on, without apology, and to do that credibly we must use the useful contrast of Republican chickenhawk incompetence as our foil.