Digby's Hullabaloo Posts

Show Me Your Papers

Kevin the Political Animal muses about a national ID card, wondering a bit why some people are so adamantly against it. But, he has some reservations after reading this post by Mark Kleiman in which Mark wondered if it might be a good idea to curtail people’s ability to buy alcohol rather than their ability to drive by using the drivers license to designate that a person convicted of an alcohol related offense isn’t allowed to drink — just as minors’ drivers licenses do. Kevin then asks:

…when a driver’s license starts becoming overtly more than just a driver’s license, where does it end? Once people get the idea that it can be used to regulate more than just driving, why not use the same card to regulate and track sex offenders? Or resident aliens? Or handgun licensing? Or criminal records? It would be mighty handy to have all that stuff in one place, wouldn’t it?

Yes it would and that is just one of the reasons you can add me to the list of libertarian wackos who are horrified at the prospect of a national ID card. It’s not out of a knee jerk hatred of government, it’s out of a lifetime observing bureaucrats, cops and politicians. I don’t trust bureaucrats to handle information well; they screw it up a lot already and it’s only getting worse with more information about individuals that’s being collected.

This is one of the main arguments against the CAPPS II system, which is really a beta test of a national ID card database. Aside from a humongous error rate, and total unaccountability, you can see that the slippery slope has already had an effect. Here’s how Anita Ramasastry explains the problem in a column from last Wednesday on FindLaw:

CAPPS II is designed to use commercial and government data to verify passenger identity, and to decide whether individual fliers pose security risks. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) is the agency tasked with implementing this program.

The program was initially intended to detect terrorists and keep them off airplanes. In August 2003, however, TSA announced that CAPPS II would also serve as a law enforcement tool to identify individuals wanted for violent crimes.

Based on privacy concerns that I have discussed in a previous column, Congress voted to block funding for CAPPS II unless the TSA could satisfy eight criteria relating to privacy, security, accuracy and oversight. (TSA may, at this time, move forward in testing CAPPS II, however.) In addition, Congress also asked the General Accounting Office (GAO) to conduct a review of CAPPS II to determine whether it met the relevant criteria.

This February, that report came in. And it concluded that CAPPS II has numerous problems, as I will explain.

Then today, March 17, a second report was released by the DHS. It confirmed that the TSA was involved in the transfer of JetBlue Airways passenger information to a Department of Defense subcontractor, Torch Concepts, for use in a data mining study (which I also discussed in an earlier column). Moreover, the DHS report found that, “The TSA employees involved acted without appropriate regard for individual privacy interests or the spirit of the Privacy Act of 1974.”

[…]

Readers may object that we can live with a few errors in order to get greater security. But the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) has pointed out that even a small error rate would create huge problems.

With CAPPS II checking an estimated billion transactions, the ACLU points out, “[e]ven if we assume an unrealistic accuracy rate of 99.9%, mistakes will be made on approximately one million transactions, and 100,000 separate individuals.” (Emphasis added.) So even a tiny error rate will lead to many, many errors.

She also note that the commercial information they included such as credit reports are notoriously subject to error (or criminal manipulation as with identity theft) and much government information is secret and unchallegeable. The slippery slope is already in force as the TSA — the Transportation Safety Administration is now in the business of helping law enforcement track down criminals. Why would they stop at that? How about IRS leins, bounced checks, or criminal convictions? And certainly there is no reason that they wouldn’t use political activity as a criteria. In fact, they seem to have done that already.

As for law enforcement, I believe we need to hold the line on the fourth amendment in general. If we require people to have a national ID card, then it stands to reason that we will also be required to show it to law enforcement. And it won’t be just another picture ID, it will likely be a hi-tech card with a magnetic strip that connects to a huge amount of information that I don’t think the police have a right to access without probable cause. Right now a case is before the Supreme Court challenging a Nevada law that makes it a crime for a person to refuse to identify himself to police.

Under Nevada law, a citizen must reveal his or her name to a police officer who has reasonable suspicion that the person might be involved in a crime. Even if the suspect is innocent, the mere act of refusing to identify oneself is – itself – a crime.

Analysts say the law creates a legal irony. If the police officer possessed enough evidence to place the suspect under arrest, the suspect would be given a Miranda warning that he or she had the right to remain silent. But if the police officer possessed only reasonable suspicion – not the higher standard of probable cause needed to justify an arrest – a suspect could be arrested and convicted merely for refusing to identify himself.

[…]

In urging the US Supreme Court to overturn his conviction, Hiibel and his lawyers argue that police are free to ask a suspect any questions they want, but the suspect does not have to answer.

A law that can send someone to jail for refusing to speak violates both Fourth Amendment privacy protections and Fifth Amendment guarantees against being compelled to make incriminating statements, they say. “It is inimical to a free society that mere silence can lead to imprisonment,” writes James Logan, a Nevada public defender and one of Hiibel’s lawyers, in his brief to the court.

The Nevada Attorney General’s Office counters that the state’s interest in investigating crimes outweighs Hiibel’s interest in keeping his identity private. “A person does not have a Fourth Amendment right to refuse to identify himself when detained on reasonable suspicion,” says Conrad Hafen, senior deputy attorney general, in his brief. Asking someone’s name is a minimal intrusion, Mr. Hafen says. Rather than forcing a suspect to make incriminating statements, repeating one’s name does not provide evidence of a crime but merely assists an investigation, he says.

“Though the name may link the person to an outstanding warrant, it does not compel the person to inform the officer that he has an outstanding warrant,” Hafen says. “A person’s name is more like a fingerprint, voice exemplar, or handwriting analysis. It is used by law enforcement to identify the person.”

Experts in electronic privacy disagree. “A name is now no longer a simple identifier: it is the key to a vast, cross-referenced system of public and private databases, which lay bare the most intimate features of an individual’s life,” says Marc Rotenberg, in a friend-of-the-court brief filed by the Electronic Privacy Information Center.

A national ID card would make it simpler to access all that information that the government has no business knowing unless they have probable cause to believe you have committed a crime. It should not be simple. Law enforcement should have to make a case before a judge in order to get it.

I don’t trust politicians ever to do the right thing out of the goodness of their hearts. Privacy and freedom are so closely linked in my mind as to be the same thing and they must be protected in law with sufficient safeguards against political repression and government surveillance. Allowing the government to access commercial information and generate even more, while requiring citizens to carry and produce a card that has the means for any government representative to access it, is a recipe for a police state. I know that sounds hysterical, but these things do happen, even to free nations if they don’t remain vigilant against it.

Jon Stewart Wonders:

“Are they going to make us marry gay?”

“I think it must be mandatory because why else would anybody care? Unless the government is going to force you to make man-love, I really don’t know why it would keep you up at night.”

Little does he know that the next step is mandatory polygamous man-on-dog love with Fido and Fifi, as well. It’s only a matter of time.

Via: The Sideshow

Preserved In Amber

I can’t wait for this interview with Richard Clarke on 60 minutes and I can’t wait to read the book. Judging by this article on the CBS website, it looks to be a doozy, as predicted.

First we find out that Rumsfeld wanted to bomb Iraq on 9/11. This does not surprise me. He wanted to bomb Iraq on 9/10 and the attacks on the WTC were a dandy excuse to go ahead with it. But, what’s interesting is Clarke’s account of the meeting in which he said it as opposed to the account of that meeting as duly recorded by Bob Woodward.

Woodward’s version has a bold and manly Bush taking charge of his confused and befuddled advisors who have more questions than answers until the steely-eyed rocket man gives them proper direction:

Shortly after 9:30 p.m., President Bush brought together his most senior national security advisers in a bunker beneath the White House grounds. It was just 13 hours after the deadliest attack on the U.S. homeland in the country’s history…

“This is the time for self-defense,” he told his aides, according to National Security Council notes. Then, repeating the vow he had made earlier in the evening in a televised address from the Oval Office, he added: “We have made the decision to punish whoever harbors terrorists, not just the perpetrators.”

Their job, the president said, was to figure out how to do it.

That afternoon, on a secure phone on Air Force One, Bush had already told Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld that he would order a military response and that Rumsfeld would be responsible for organizing it. “We’ll clean up the mess,” the president told Rumsfeld, “and then the ball will be in your court.”

Intelligence was by now almost conclusive that Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda network, based in Afghanistan, had carried out the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. But the aides gathered in the bunker-the “war cabinet” that included Rumsfeld, Vice President Cheney, national security adviser Condoleezza Rice, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell and CIA Director George J. Tenet-were not ready to say what should be done about them. The war cabinet had questions, no one more than Rumsfeld.

Who are the targets? How much evidence do we need before going after al Qaeda? How soon do we act? While acting quickly was essential, Rumsfeld said, it might take up to 60 days to prepare for major military strikes. And, he asked, are there targets that are off-limits? Do we include American allies in military strikes?

Rumsfeld warned that an effective response would require a wider war, one that went far beyond the use of military force. The United States, he said, must employ every tool available-military, legal, financial, diplomatic, intelligence.

The president was enthusiastic. But Tenet offered a sobering thought. Although al Qaeda’s home base was Afghanistan, the terrorist organization operated nearly worldwide, he said. The CIA had been working the bin Laden problem for years. We have a 60-country problem, he told the group.

“Let’s pick them off one at a time,” Bush replied

And then he hitched up his codpiece and went to bed. It was, after all, 9:30.

Here’s Clarke’s version from the CBS article:

After the president returned to the White House on Sept. 11, he and his top advisers, including Clarke, began holding meetings about how to respond and retaliate. As Clarke writes in his book, he expected the administration to focus its military response on Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda. He says he was surprised that the talk quickly turned to Iraq.

“Rumsfeld was saying that we needed to bomb Iraq,” Clarke said to Stahl. “And we all said … no, no. Al-Qaeda is in Afghanistan. We need to bomb Afghanistan. And Rumsfeld said there aren’t any good targets in Afghanistan. And there are lots of good targets in Iraq. I said, ‘Well, there are lots of good targets in lots of places, but Iraq had nothing to do with it.

“Initially, I thought when he said, ‘There aren’t enough targets in– in Afghanistan,’ I thought he was joking.

“I think they wanted to believe that there was a connection, but the CIA was sitting there, the FBI was sitting there, I was sitting there saying we’ve looked at this issue for years. For years we’ve looked and there’s just no connection.”

Clarke says he and CIA Director George Tenet told that to Rumsfeld, Secretary of State Colin Powell, and Attorney General John Ashcroft.

Clarke then tells Stahl of being pressured by Mr. Bush.

“The president dragged me into a room with a couple of other people, shut the door, and said, ‘I want you to find whether Iraq did this.’ Now he never said, ‘Make it up.’ But the entire conversation left me in absolutely no doubt that George Bush wanted me to come back with a report that said Iraq did this.

“I said, ‘Mr. President. We’ve done this before. We have been looking at this. We looked at it with an open mind. There’s no connection.’

“He came back at me and said, “Iraq! Saddam! Find out if there’s a connection.’ And in a very intimidating way. I mean that we should come back with that answer. We wrote a report.”

Clarke also describes the foreign policy advisors in the administration as “preserved in amber,” (much more evocative than my earlier characterization of them as fossilized) which supports my observations over the last couple of years that the central problem with these guys is that they are unable to get past the cold war mythology that hooked them somewhere in their formative years and never let them go. It’s like watching a bunch of middle aged freaks at a LOTR convention. Not a pretty sight.

And what’s even more staggering about all this is that they still haven’t learned their lessons. CBS reports that Steven Hadley of the NSC describes the Iraq misadventure as a success by basing it on the lie that al Qaeda and Saddam were in cahoots AND on the dangerous fallacy that terrorism has something to do with rogue states:

“Iraq, as the president has said, is at the center of the war on terror. We have narrowed the ground available to al Qaeda and to the terrorists. Their sanctuary in Afghanistan is gone; their sanctuary in Iraq is gone. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are now allies on the war on terror. So Iraq has contributed in that way in narrowing the sanctuaries available to terrorists.”

Jayzuz. The bombings in Madrid, Istanbul and Bali sure as hell didn’t need any rogue state sanctuary — they were all carried out by terrorist factions loosely connected to al Qaeda and managed on local soil. I can’t even begin to comment on the ridiculous concept that we’ve somehow provoked a positive change in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. But, we can be sure that the Iraq war has contributed to terrorism all right. It served as an extremely useful rallying cry and cause for manipulation for no goddamned good reason other than a total lack of imagination and openness to changing facts on the ground.

It’s not only the White House that refuses to see terrorism for what it is instead of what they’d like it to be, the right wing punditocrisy is similarly clinging to their outmoded cold warrior worldview. All this talk of appeasement in the Spanish elections fails to account for the fact that it doesn’t really matter how any single country reacts to these Islamic terrorist actions. You can’t appease them or not appease them because they are not operating from any real premise.

Al Qaeda terrorists have a delusional view of world events that’s only rivaled by the neocons here in the US. And they share a similar misunderstanding of the forces that bring about change in the world. For instance, they BOTH believed that they destroyed the Soviet Union through their own superior military prowess. I think we all know that the American right wing is dedicated to the proposition that their God Ronald Reagan single handedly ended the cold war. Osama bin Laden takes similar credit. From a 1998 interview:

Allah has granted the Muslim people and the Afghani mujahedeen, and those with them, the opportunity to fight the Russians and the Soviet Union. … They were defeated by Allah and were wiped out. There is a lesson here. The Soviet Union entered Afghanistan late in December of ’79. The flag of the Soviet Union was folded once and for all on the 25th of December just 10 years later. It was thrown in the waste basket. Gone was the Soviet union forever.

[…]

Today however, our battle against the Americans is far greater than our battle was against the Russians. Americans have committed unprecedented stupidity. They have attacked Islam and its most significant sacrosanct symbols … . We anticipate a black future for America. Instead of remaining United States, it shall end up separated states and shall have to carry the bodies of its sons back to America.

You couldn’t make this shit up. Al Qaeda thinks it brought down the Soviets and thinks it can bring down the US, too. Yep. And meanwhile, here in the new capital of Western Civilization we’ve got President Hopalong spewing nonsense about Good n’ Evul while the SecDef says that we should bomb the countries with the best targets.

Dr. Strangelove, your table is ready.

Oh, and by the way, somebody ought to send a memo to the White House that its attempted character asissination of Clarke is extremely lame. They say he wrote this book to “audition” for the Kerry campaign. Yeah. The guy who ran counter-terrorism for Reagan, Bush, Clinton and Junior would need to audition. I hear Tom Cruise is doing a screen test for the next Mission Impossible movie, too. Paramount needs to see if he can do the job.

GOPUNKS

A Bush Surprise: Fright-Wing Support:

“I look like someone who should be hanging out with Marilyn Manson. In fact I have hung out with Marilyn Manson,” Mr. Graves said. “It doesn’t affect what my morals are.”

“I think George Bush is a wonderful, competent leader,” he added. “And I believe that he is bringing this country on a right and just course and he understands the true nature of evil.”

I think we’ve finally found Ann Coulter a boyfriend.

Like Riding A Bike

Kevin at catch.com posts about Drudge’s new obsession about Kerry falling down on a snowboard. I notice that Kaus is on the hunt, as well. I was shocked when I heard about it too. Imagine falling down while snowboarding. I think it pretty much disqualifies Kerry from the presidency.

Thank goodness we have a real athlete in the White House:

President Bush falls over the handle bars of a Segway.

Sis Boom Bah

All this talk about Richard Clarke’s interview on 60 minutes tomorrow in which he says that Rummy was ready to bomb Iraq on 9/12, reminded me of Atrios’ song contest. We all thought it was a joke. Apparently, it really is the Bush administration fight song. Junior, after all, has made his living most of his life as a cheerleader:

If you’re happy and you know it, bomb Iraq (clap clap)

If you’re happy and you know it, bomb Iraq (clap clap)

If you’re happy and you know it,

And you really want to show it

If you’re happy and you know it, bomb Iraq

If your equities are falling, bomb Iraq

If your equities are falling, bomb Iraq

If your equities are falling,

and your losses are appalling

If your equities are falling, bomb Iraq.

If the euro keeps on climbing, bomb Iraq

If the euro keeps on climbing, bomb Iraq

If the euro keeps on climbing,

put your trust in W’s timing,

If the euro keeps on climbing, bomb Iraq

If the GDP is shrinking, bomb Iraq,

If the GDP is shrinking, bomb Iraq,

If the GDP is shrinking,

And W’s back to drinking,

If the GDP is shrinking, bomb Iraq,

If my polls are falling, bomb Iraq,

If my polls are falling, bomb Iraq,

If my polls are falling,

and Congress is stalling

If my polls are falling, bomb Iraq.

If the GOP is hurtin’ , bomb Iraq

If the GOP is hurtin’ , bomb Iraq

If the GOP is hurtin’

And November looks uncertain

If the GOP is hurtin’ , bomb Iraq

If the talk has turned to Harken, bomb Iraq,

If the talk has turned to Harken, bomb Iraq,

If the talk has turned to Harken,

and that Krugman-dawg is barkin’,

If the talk has turned to Harken, bomb Iraq!

Are they checking Halliburton? Bomb Iraq

Are they checking Halliburton? Bomb Iraq

If they’re checking Halliburton

Cheney’s rep will soon be hurtin’

If they’re checking Halliburton, bomb Iraq

If your brother is a turkey, bomb Iraq

If your brother is a turkey, bomb Iraq

If your brother is a turkey

And Florida’s goin’ bazerk-y

If your brother is a turkey, bomb Iraq

If the pundits call you “moron,” bomb Iraq

If the pundits call you “moron,” bomb Iraq

If the pundits call you moron

Then it’s time to get your war on

If the pundits call you “moron,” bomb Iraq

If Noelle gets caught with crack…bomb Iraq

If Noelle gets caught with crack…bomb Iraq

If Noelle gets caught with crack

and the twins drop booze for smack

If Noelle gets caught with crack…bomb Iraq

To divert public attention bomb Iraq

To divert public attention bomb Iraq

To divert public attention

From the doings of your henchmen

To divert public attention bomb Iraq

To get drilling in the Artic, bomb Iraq,

To get drilling in the Artic, bomb Iraq,

You can run us out of oil,

With the Middle East aboil,

To get drilling in the Artic, bomb Iraq.

Head Of Mush

Matthew Yglesias in this post notices that Donald Rumsfeld and the the blindered neocon faction of the GOP still don’t seem to understand terrorism. He says:

Rogue states are bad — don’t get me wrong — but in a fundamental sense the terrorism problem has nothing to do with them. The fact that Iran sponsors a regional terrorist enterprise (Hezbollah) and that Iraq and North Korea both did so in the past (and Iraq to a small extent continued up until Saddam’s fall) is interesting, but not really relevant to the terrorism problem that the United States faces. Rumsfeld — and Rice, and Bush — don’t get that.

They have been convinced, it seems since the beginning of time, that the only real threat to America and apple pie is the fearsome rogue state. And you can trace this completely erroneous line of reasoning as it applies to islamic terrorism to our good friend, the crazed Laurie Mylroie and her insistence that the first World Trade Center bombing was the work of Saddam Hussein. And you can go even further back to the notion that communism would be defeated only through a series of military victories against the states that adopted it. It appears that these folks’ biggest problem in life, and the reason they should never be allowed to have unfettered power, is that their thinking is so fossilized that they can never, ever let go of an idea once they have adopted it, no matter what the facts and circumstances.

They are now so deeply confused by their own twisted worldview that nobody knows what the hell they are thinking. It is true, as Matt points out, that the threat of “rogue states” like Iran and North Korea are real and require extreme vigilance. It is also true that the War On Terrorism is really a war against a bunch of loose knit organizations held together by ideology and purpose rather than a state sponsor or central location. They are two separate threats, each difficult and each distinct.

There is one exception, however, and its a biggie. There is a rogue state out there that has openly supplied nuclear arms to other rogue states, is under the despotic undemocratic rule of a military junta and is deeply involved in the spread of islamic fundamentalist ideology. The government could easily fall into the hands of the wacko Wahabist faction that forms a significant part of the current president’s ruling coalition. Yet our Secretary of State was just there last week passing out high fives as a great ally in the War on Terror. The war they insist can only be won by confronting militarily the rogue states that could someday give arms to the terrorists.

The New York Times put it this way in an editorial today:

Washington failed to protest when General Musharraf cut short the prosecution of the nuclear scientist at the center of the scandal, Abdul Qadeer Khan, with a presidential pardon. It did not object when he blocked the investigation of any military involvement. The least the administration can do now is to press privately for a full accounting. Americans are at least as threatened by rogue states and terrorists armed with Pakistani nuclear blueprints and bomb fuel as they are by fugitives holed up in South Waziristan.

Pakistan’s official version of the nuclear transfers ? that civilian scientists acted entirely on their own for purely financial reasons ? defies belief. There is no way sensitive nuclear hardware and uranium could have been transported out of Pakistan without the knowledge and complicity of the country’s all-powerful military high command and intelligence agencies. And Washington cannot know that the network has been shut down until its enablers and protectors have been identified.

Washington also needs to insist on an end to the ambiguous relations between Pakistan and the Taliban, which have allowed fighters to cross the Afghan border and attack American troops. The problem is, in part, a legacy of the Pakistani Army’s close cooperation with the Taliban until General Musharraf officially severed these ties after 9/11. A more recent complication comes from the alliances General Musharraf has made with Islamist extremist parties to prop up his dictatorial rule. These parties, which are ideologically close to the Taliban, now wield substantial power along the Afghan border.

Instead of urging General Musharraf to stop maneuvering against unfettered elections and Pakistan’s main secular parties, Mr. Powell lavished undeserved praise upon him for democratic progress. Such declarations diminish American credibility as a consistent force for democracy. Behind a constitutional facade, General Musharraf rules as a military dictator, accountable to no civilian authority and basing his power on Pakistan’s armed forces. It is the army high command that General Musharraf must negotiate with if he truly wants to move against the Taliban, Kashmiri terrorist groups or the nuclear weapons establishment.

Mr. Powell struck a somewhat surreal note in Islamabad when he announced that Washington was preparing to designate Pakistan a “major non-NATO ally,” easing access to military sales. Pakistan’s efforts to capture Dr. Zawahiri are welcome, but it is excessive to offer even a symbolic promotion to one of America’s least reliable allies.

Yes, well, there is an election coming up and nothing is more important than staging a big ole “Mission Accomplished” celebration that features bin Laden’s head on pike.

I realize that countries like Pakistan need to be handled deftly. I’m not unhappy that they haven’t sent John Bolton over there to call Mushareff a scumbag on Pakistani television. (Would that they would keep him away from North Korea.) It may even be smart to “keep your friends close and your enemies closer” in this situation. If this team had shown even a tiny bit of real diplomatic and tactical finesse during the last three years I might think that’s what they were doing. But they haven’t and they’re not:

India Saturday warned the U.S. decision granting major non-NATO ally status to Pakistan will impact bilateral ties between New Delhi and Washington.

A foreign ministry spokesman expressed surprise that U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell was in New Delhi two days prior to the announcement and did not mention the decision to Indian officials.

Navtej Sarna said: “The Secretary of State was in India just two days before this statement was made in Islamabad. While he was in India, there was much emphasis on India-US strategic partnership. It is disappointing that he did not share with us this decision of the United States government.”

Indian officials were reportedly embarrassed at being caught unawares.

“We are studying the details of this decision, which has significant implications for India-U.S. relations,” Sarna said in a statement.

In a case where you have two nuclear powers, bitter rivals, seething with religious animosity and territorial disputes you go out of your way to insult the one that has no record of supporting islamic terrorism or selling nuclear weapons to our enemies and openly reward the one that does. And you do this in the name of fighting terrorism and rogue states.

They call this moral clarity.

Clearly, there is no Bush doctrine, and no deep belief in anything except the tired irrelevancy that Stalinist regimes like Saddam’s and the DPRK must be defeated in the name of fighting communism. That is all these people know and it’s all they will ever know. They do not understand the dangers of the post cold war world just as they didn’t understand the threats of the cold war.

And it cannot be ignored that we have a leader who is an idiot. Here’s the image of leadership that Karl Rove is running on, from the halcyon days of 2002. I know that those of us in blogland are aware that it is a fantasy, but a good number of Americans are not:

Lacking his father’s deep reservoir of experience to draw upon, how does Bush resolve his advisers’ titanic disagreements? He goes with his gut. He relies on an instinctive sense of who is good and who is bad overseas?and then he sticks at all costs with the call he has made. His confidence in this process has grown with his success in Afghanistan He took to heart the lesson that he should trust his moral sense and have faith in what a former Clinton aide, not without admiration, calls “rising dominoes”?the sense that if Bush unfurls a big bright flag and marches toward the mountains, the world will follow.

But when the world doesn’t follow, Bush often just keeps marching. His defenders like to point out that the President’s foreign policy has had no serious failures caused by allies’ rebelling against him. That proves, they say, that raw power determines international politics. As a senior Bush adviser bluntly declared earlier this year: “The way to win international acceptance is to win. That’s called diplomacy: winning.” If other countries get restive, U.S. officials say, who cares? Even ganged up, they will be weaker than the U.S. alone. The President summed up his lead-a-lonely-but-moral-crusade approach to foreign policy in April when he was asked whether he understood that Palestinians consider the Israeli occupation to be a form of terrorism.

That’s when he said, “Look, my job isn’t to try to nuance. I think moral clarity is important, if you believe in freedom. And people can make all kinds of excuses, but there are some truths involved. And one of the truths is, they’re sending suicide killers in because they hate Israel. That’s a truth. I know people don’t like it when I say there’s evil, this is evil versus good. But that’s not going to stop me from saying what I think is right.”

(If other countries get restive, U.S. officials say, who cares? Even ganged up, they will be weaker than the U.S. alone. That is another dangerous fallacy that animates the neocons. Again, there is no threat but the threat of a Stalinist rogue state. We’ll have faith-base missile defense up by next fall and then everything will be perfect.)

Although much of the assessment in the Time article has been proven wrong — his allies did rebel and there have been real consequences — that image has remained in the minds of many. John Kerry’s team must find a succinct way of showing that this puerile nonsense about the braindead boy-man’s PB&J filled gut has made the world far less safe than it was on September 11th, 2001. Bush’s team continues to operate like a bunch of amateurs, refusing to learn from mistakes and screwing things up over and over again. Kerry must counter this absurd impression of Bush as having a gut of steel when what he really has is a head of mush. The sickness in this administration all flows from that.

Even More On The A-word

Atrios noted that Jim Pinkerton spewed his kool-aid on the appeasement question the other day, but he hurls the glass across the room in the above linked article in Salon:

So who lost Spain? Who thereby gave Old Europe a new lease on life? When Americans were told that toppling Saddam’s regime would transform geopolitics, did anyone think that the next transformed regime would be José María Aznar’s — that “regime change” would ricochet back to Spain? The Bush administration was taken by surprise, of course, because it had chosen to ignore the huge majorities in democracies around the world who never agreed that the “war on terror” could be won in Baghdad.

President Bush pushed the Spanish — and will soon push, probably, the British — to change their government by pursuing policies that have cleaved Europe and America. Europeans, remembering centuries of experience in stomping out separatists, anarchists and fanatics, will now go their own way, without guidance from Paul Wolfowitz. French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, looking like two cats who shared a canary, held a joint press conference in Paris on Tuesday touting their own approach to fighting terrorism; there they offered words of welcome to incoming Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, inducting him into their non-American — maybe anti-American — alliance. David Frum bewailed Europe’s collective-security plan as “a defeat for the antiterrorist cause,” and yet Western Europeans have concluded that stirring hornets nests in faraway places is not the way to keep from being stung.

Which brings us to Tony Blankley in the Washington Times, who gloomily projected a “four in 10 chance that the American electorate will come down with the Spanish disease this November” — that is, boot Bush out of office; the alleged ailment might be called “appeasementitis.” Yup, it’s 1938 all over again, same as it ever was. The historically minded — here comes the dreaded alternative diagnosis of the realists — might point out that al-Qaida is a criminal gang, a cadre of loony loners and conspiratorial crazies scattered across the world. These realists understand that bin Laden’s bunch is not a nation-state with a Wehrmacht, Luftwaffe, and Fuhrer. But no speck of realistic thinking seems ever to cloud the eternal 1930s-ness of the neocons’ spotless mind.

Indeed, the most serious consequence of appeasement-accusing is the assumption that goes with it: That counterterrorism strategy and conventional war strategy are one and the same. The war on terror is not World War II; it requires dramatically different actions. The neocon strategists, stalled in the ’30s — searching for Neville Chamberlain tapping his umbrella on every cobblestone street, even as they scout out the next Winston Churchill — are leading us into the bloody land of blowback.

I had noticed that Pinkerton had been sidling off the reservation about a year ago. And he’s writing for Salon. I’d say we can put away the garlic in his presence.

From Beirut To The Twilight Zone

Kevin Drum takes on the Tom Friedman “appeasement” op-ed today on his great new blog Political Animal. (And why wasn’t that one taken a loong time ago? Was somebody saving it for a renowned cat blogger to go big time?) Anyway, Kevin is definitely getting more animalistic. His take on what I agree was a steaming mound of something is downright combative:

This kind of stuff belongs on the pages of a third tier warblogger, not the op-ed page of the New York Times. It’s juvenile and disgusting.

I love it. And Kevin is right. This nonsensical Friedman blather is even worse than his usual drivel and I didn’t think that was possible. He suggests that even though the socialists ran on the platform of withdrawal from Iraq and even though the population never supported it and even though Friedman acknowledges that the Bush administration is making a total hash out of the occupation, the new Spanish government should not withdraw from Iraq because it would appease al Qaeda.

Picture if you will, September 11, 2001 and Al Gore is President of the United States. Terrorists attack London. Al Gore responds by joining Tony Blair in attacking the Taliban in Afghanistan and disrupting Al Qaeda’s operation. Almost immediately, they begin planning to invade Iraq and do so just a little more than a year later, against the will of most US allies and most Americans. It soon becomes obvious that Blair and Gore’s assertions of connection between Al Qaeda and Iraq were wrong (as were all the other national security rationales they set forth to justify the war.) The Republicans are going crazy, demanding special prosecutors, impeachment and criminal charges. (You know they would. Here are some of their comments on Kosovo.)

Meanwhile, Gore insists that the war in Iraq was absolutely necessary to protect America from the terrorist threat and he refuses to back down on this assessment. The first week in November the polls show the election is close. The economy is sluggish and people are restless. The war in Iraq is unpopular, but is no longer at the top of the newscasts. 3 days before people go to the polls, terrorists blow up several nightclubs in Miami, killing hundreds and wounding thousands.

The Gore administration casts the blame on pro-Castro terrorists. Doubts emerge immediately and within hours it becomes obvious that the Gore administration was again misleading the country about national security. He loses the election by a significantly wider margin than the polls had predicted.

The Republicans, chagrined and embarrassed, admit that the result was bad because the US has just “appeased” al Qaeda. Therefore, they promise to continue Al Gore’s foreign policy, despite the fact that they completely disagree with it and a large majority of the country rejects it, because they know that it would be wrong to allow Al Qaeda to believe they were cowed by its terrorism.

And the next day Neo destroys the Matrix and live bats fly out of Lynn Cheney’s mouth on Larry King Live.

Shave and Appeasement, 6 Bits.

Via Matt Yglesias, I read this post by Julian Sanchez on the Spanish elections and ensuing charges of “appeasement,” by the hysterical gasbags on the right.

Aznar had defended the war in Iraq as measure necessary to “guarantee the security of Spaniards from any internal or external threat,” and his government sought to dismiss claims that a Spanish club was targeted for bombing in Casablanca because of Spanish participation in the war. Meanwhile, PSOE officials had suggested that Spain, Britain, and the U.S. were “kicking a wasp’s nest,” that “the war in Iraq was going to provoke more hatred and rancor and, therefore, the threat of more instability.” Transparently, Aznar was mistaken and the opposition was correct. Are Spanish voters to be tarred as cowards if they now hold Aznar accountable for his miscalculation? A few especially glib commentators have suggested that the Spanish should “blame the terrorists,” not the PP. But why can’t they blame both?

Well, yeah. Aside from it being seriously distasteful, this excessive stomping on the body politic of the site of the worst terrorist attack on european soil tells me the wing nuts are in desperate need of a shave with old Occam’s Razor.

As I noted in a post yesterday on American Street, Mark Kleiman unearthed the shattering news that the turn-out was much higher than usual, probably as a result of the bombings and a desire to show public solidarity. It may be that those non-voters would have voted otherwise, but it may also be that they would have done what most voters in high turnout elections in Spain do, which is vote for the left candidate. It possible that the Spaniards are not, in fact, saying to the world, “We’re askeered ‘o ole bin Laden! Please don’t hurt us again!” They may have just been saying, “I hadn’t been paying that much attention to politics, but I usually back the socialists so that’s who I’ll vote for because I think it’s important in this time of tragedy.” Republicans ought to understand that. It’s how they won the midterms.

On the other hand, the very simplest explanation for why people voted out the party in power is being totally ignored by everyone and it’s a pretty good reason, too.

Man say he tough guy. He big friend of bigger tough guy. Man say his country must do what bigger tough guy say to keep country safe. Many people everywhere say bigger tough guy not know what he doing. Man say “too bad” to people.

Then bad guys blow up trains and kill and wound many. People think, tough guy and bigger tough guy not keep country safe like they say. We no like tough guy. We like other guy who not trust bigger tough guy, like we say. We make him our president.

It is hard to know how people would react in any country to a terrorist attack on the eve of an election. But, is it so impossible to believe that they might just BLAME the guys in charge of keeping the country safe for not actually, you know, keeping the country safe? I realize that this idea that you play into your enemies hands if you change your leadership is understandable to people who also believe that CEO’s should be given huge bonuses when they destroy their companies, but isn’t it a bit much for normal people to adopt this attitude? Surely, even Aeron-chair warriors must acknowledge that sometimes, when a leader fucks up, he needs to be replaced.

Then again, you could conclude that any response to terrorism that isn’t total support of George W. Bush’s policies is appeasement. Here in America it’s clear that if we have no terrorist attacks in the US before November it will be because George W. Bush has kept our babies safe and we must re-elect him. To do otherwise would be appeasement. But, if there is another terrorist attack before November we must also re-elect him because to do otherwise would be appeasement.

And, we must shop til we drop. Not shopping is appeasement, too. As is gay marriage. And tax hikes on the rich. And Janet’s nipple. It’s all pretty much the same thing. Al Qaeda is desperately afraid of Bush’s codpiece. Anything less than total support of it, no matter what, and the terrorists will have won.