Digby's Hullabaloo Posts

No More Time

As usual, the Republicans are in a big hurry. Urgency and technicalities are their main governing principles.

But Republican and Democratic pollsters, economists and operatives said part of the urgency for Bush is tied to his political standing at home. They said the uncertainty related to the war is depressing consumer confidence and postponing the sort of robust economic recovery Bush will need to win reelection.

A Gallup poll this month showed a decline in Americans’ confidence to a seven-year low, with 36 percent satisfied with the country’s direction and 61 percent dissatisfied. It is a decline that began in December 2001. The ABC News-Money magazine’s gauge of consumer confidence released this week showed that 23 percent of Americans thought the economy was in good shape, the fewest in more than nine years.

“The number one concern is the impact [Iraq] is having on the economy and the harness it’s putting around certain sectors and causing negative growth,” GOP strategist Scott Reed said. “It’s reaching into all nooks and corners, and causing great concern in both corporate boardrooms and small businesses and their bankers.”

If consumer confidence and employment are not growing substantially by early next year, Bush’s reelection could be jeopardized…

[…]

Analysts said a further delay also poses risks to Bush’s political standing that go beyond the economic. In the most recent poll by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center, 54 percent of Americans approved of his job performance, 3 percentage points higher than in August 2001. At the same time, narrow majorities of Americans favor military action against Iraq without allied support. Both gauges will jump once hostilities begin, but “the question is how long it’s going to last,” poll director Andrew Kohut said.

[…]

Since last year, administration officials have said the weather would be too hot to launch an attack after early spring. But in recent weeks, defense officials have said that is less of a concern than originally believed and that another month’s wait could be tolerated.

[…]

well, well, well.

Nothing To See Here, Move Along

This is completely illegitimate, I’m sure. Jay Rockefeller wants to have a little investigation into how we happened to be using blatently forged documents to bolster our case that Iraq has nuclear weapons.

Sarah Ross, a spokeswoman for Senate Intelligence Committee chairman Pat Roberts, said the committee will look into the forgery, but Roberts believes it is inappropriate for the FBI to investigate at this point.

The documents indicated that Iraq tried to by uranium from Niger, the West African nation that is the third-largest producer of mined uranium, Niger’s largest export. The documents had been provided to U.S. officials by a third country, which has not been identified.

A U.S. government official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said it was unclear who first created the documents. The official said American suspicions remain about an Iraq-Niger uranium connection because of other, still-credible evidence that the official refused to specify.

In December, the State Department used the information to support its case that Iraq was lying about its weapons programs. But on March 7, Mohammed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the U.N. Security Council that the documents were forgeries.

Rockefeller said U.S. worries about Iraqi nuclear weapons were not based primarily on the documents, but “there is a possibility that the fabrication of these documents may be part of a larger deception campaign aimed at manipulating public opinion and foreign policy regarding Iraq.”

Yah think?

Personally, I don’t see any reason to investigate this until all congressional committees finally clear up the issue of whether Hillary was involved in firing the travel office staff back in 1993. They only spent 4 years on that subject, so I can’t really feel confident that they got to the bottom of it. You’ve just got to have some priorities.

“Pivoting”

Forrest Sawyer just asked David Gregory if the White House is in chaos. Gregory said no, the White House says it is “pivoting” in a number of different directions.

This is also known as running around in circles.

heh.

Required Reading

Josh Marshall says to read this and he’s right. It is devastating.

By Michael Lind

The United States is now more isolated from its major allies and more internally divided over foreign policy than at any time since 1945. The strategy of the Bush administration-and not merely its style-is to blame.

The grand strategy of the Bush administration rests on three axioms: American global hegemony; preventive war; and the so-called “war on terror.” All three axioms are fallacies that inevitably produce counterproductive and misguided policies. What the great French diplomat Talleyrand said of Napoleon’s execution of the Duc d’Enghien applies with equal force to Bush’s grand strategy: “It is worse than a crime; it is a mistake.”

Go

Not Quite Enough

With Democratic presidential candidates under fire for their reluctance to speak out about Iraq, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry delivered a major policy address in San Francisco Thursday — and omitted any substantive mention of the looming war.

In a 40-minute speech to a packed hall sponsored by the Commonwealth Club of California, Kerry offered a stinging indictment of Bush domestic policies on the environment, homeland security, eroding civil liberties and the declining economy. But he saved his comments on the war for a question-and-answer session afterward, and even in those tempered remarks, his position on Iraq was less than clear-cut.

The ongoing failure of the Bush administration to win allies in the U.N. Security Council “displays some of the weakest diplomacy we’ve ever seen in the history of the continental U.S.,” Kerry said after the speech.

Although he voted last fall to authorize the president to use military force against Iraq and said Thursday that he did not regret his vote, Kerry did not say whether he still believes force should be used — or if so, when. “The United States should never go to war because it wants to go to war,” he said, echoing statements made in January. “We should go to war because we have to go to war. And that is not clear at this time.”

He did flesh out a rather fine critique, however, of the Bush administration’s handling of the diplomacy. Why he couldn’t do it in his speech is anybody’s guess, but I assume it’s because he’s afraid of Sean Hannity and Ari Fleischer:

Only one-third of the job of president is to be “CEO of the domestic choices of the country,” he said in response to one question. “Two-thirds of the job of president is head of state — therefore chief diplomat.”

And the international chaos of recent months proves the need to have a strong person in that position, he said, suggesting that neither Bush nor Secretary of State Colin Powell have measured up well in the job.

In 2002, there was clearly a path to the inspections process that brought legitimacy and consent to an international endeavor, he said. What led to its demise is an endemic unwillingness to strengthen relationships with European nations. “I don’t know if they put the lock and key on the airplane so he [Powell] isn’t allowed to travel,” Kerry said, “but somehow this has been a secretary of state who’s been unwilling to go over and build those relationships.”

“I regret the way this administration has conducted foreign policy and given the back of its hand to so many nations,” he said. “The United States, the strongest military power on the face of this planet, has not had diplomacy that matches it.”

I don’t understand why Kerry can’t just say that he is for ousting Saddam, but that they hashed it up so much and are so incredibly incompetent that the congress is going to have to assert itself like never before to ensure that they do not create complete chaos in the region, and the next president is going to have to clean up the mess that’s been made of our international relations. He should be thundering his criticism of the unilateralist bent of the administration and their inability to convince the world that the invasion scheme is the right one.

He voted for the damned war. If he’d stick to his guns and use the opportunity to show how the Republicans have compromised their own goals, he would be a principled politician that even the doves could respect. Instead, he just seems vague and scared.

People are not going to vote for a candidate who is trying to split the difference on national security.

These Democrats have got to realize that there is no margin in trying to appease the GOP. They are going to get it coming and going, no matter what they say. They have to concentrate, instead, on laying out a principled alternative to Bush Imperialism and let the chips fall where they may. The have got to step up and fight and that does not mean that they must be doves. It just means they must stand for something.

And, it’s not like the Republicans haven’t given them enough to criticize, for gawd’s sake. They’ve fucked up even on their own terms. How hard is it to make a passionate speech about Bush’s failure in international relations?

All The Sock-Puppet’s Men

TBOGG is on to Howard Fineman.

Burning CD’s

People are (literally) burning the Dixie Chicks’ CD’s because of their treasonous statements objecting to the imminent invasion of Iraq. And, if that wasn’t bad enough, they also said they were ashamed that George W. Alamo is from Texas. The humanity.

I must remind all of you people who would like to show solidarity with the coalition of the willing, it really shouldn’t stop with the Dixie Chicks.

I wrote before that Shania Twain, Hank Williams Jr., Willie Nelson, Trisha Yearwood, Vince Gill, Reba McIntyre, Earl Scruggs, Mark Wills, Tom T. Hall, Lee Ann Womack, and George Strait all work for that Saddam loving enemy, Vivendi of….gasp….France.

I urge all righteous God fearing Americans to call Rush and Sean and the rest and let them know you want them to use their clout in the radio industry to put a stop to this traitorous war profiteering on the part of their employers. They, of all people, understand that allowing the radio and record industry to put profits over freedom is Un-American. DEMAND that Rush tell Clear Channel to stop playing the following artists immediately:

U2, Bob Marley, Elton John, Eminem, Nelly, Diana Krall, George Benson, John Coltrane, Enrique Iglesias, Limp Bizkit, No Doubt, Sheryl Crow, Sting, Ashanti, Elvis Costello, Smokey Robinson, B.B. King, Melissa Etheridge, Blink 182, Cranberries, Mary J Blige, Erykah Badu, Stevie Wonder, Ja Rule, Nirvana, 50 Cent, The Temptations, Bon Jovi, Ludacris, Jay Z, Shaggy, Placido Domingo, Andrea Bocelli, Lionel Richie, Hansen, Hooba stanks, Injected, Tatu, Wallflowers, MS Dynamite, 2 Pac, Ms Jade, American HiFi, Def Leppard, Die Trying, Letter Kills, PJ Harvey, Portishead, MJ Cole, Rosy, Shorty 101, Hoobastank, A Teens, Avant, Res, The Roots, Brian McKnight, India Arie, Remy Shand, AZ Black Coffey, Corey, DJ Rogers J,r Melanie Durrant, Dave Hollister, India.Arie, Jene Jose Brian McKnight, Stephen Marley, Remy, Shand, Charlie Haden, Al Jarreau.

These people are making blood money off of the backs of America’s freedom and they need to know that if they don’t quit working for the godless, Iraq loving French enemy, we will end their careers. You know that Rush will put his career on the line for this and require his employer to either stop playing all artists that work for Vivendi or he will quit.

He’s a patriot above all else. You know he is.

Update:

YOU can call The Rush Limbaugh Show program line between 12 Noon and 3PM Eastern Time at: 1-800-282-2882

You can e-mail Rush at: rush@eibnet.com

You can fax Rush at: 212-563-9166

You can write Rush at:

The Rush Limbaugh Show

2 Penn Plaza

New York, NY 10121

Update II: I can’t believe I have to do this, but my comments section proves that I have been much too obscure with my little satire.

I don’t really think that we should be boycotting Vivendi and I think the Dixie Chicks are a-ok. What I was trying (and obviously failing) to do, was show that Rush and his hate radio cohorts are being hypocritical in calling for a boycott of French products, when their own employers are making zillions from playing artists who work for one of the biggest French companies in the world.

It would be fun to see whether Rush would be willing to put his career on the line by threatening to quit Clear Channel if they continued to make money from a French company, but I have no illusions that he would give up one single penny in this cause. I would love to see him explain why, though, wouldn’t you?

whew.

Word To The Wise

I don’t subscribe to any GOP e-mail lists and I certainly don’t have access to the daily talking points that so obviously are passed around amongst the bow-tied, doughboy Republican cognoscenti, but it doesn’t take an insider to figure out what they are since they multiply like bacteria into the media within minutes of introduction.

Here’s the current infection:

Yesterday, Perle gave aninterview on RTL in which he claimed that Chirac and Hussein have been “good friends” since the 70’s. This is not news, but it was also put forth as a startling revelation on Brit Hume’s show on Fox News yesterday. I would bet that it’s all over Talk Radio again today.This adds to the contention that Chirac has given so much illegal contraband to his friend in the hopes of good deals on oil leases that he’s petrified that good people everywhere will recoil in disgust when they find out the truth.

Charles Pierce pithily retorts to that last accusation today on Altercation saying, “if you’re keeping score at home, it should be noted that it wasn’t the Freedoms who redacted 12,000 pages of the Iraqi weapons report before they made it public. What did we edit out? The receipts?”

No way, Marseilles. Just so’s ya knows — Jacques has promised his lover Saddam a stocking full ‘o Nukes for Christmas. And, apparently, out ‘o principle, John Negropont and Don Rumsfeld kept those 12,000 pages of love letters from the world in order to spare Mrs. Chirac the embarrassment. Or something.

The Wurlitzer always plays on key.

Iraq, the Middle East and Change: No Dominoes

A classified State Department report expresses doubt that installing a new regime in Iraq will foster the spread of democracy in the Middle East, a claim President Bush has made in trying to build support for a war, according to intelligence officials familiar with the document.

The report exposes significant divisions within the Bush administration over the so-called democratic domino theory, one of the arguments that underpins the case for invading Iraq.

[…]

The domino theory also is used by the administration as a counterargument to critics in Congress and elsewhere who have expressed concern that invading Iraq will inflame the Muslim world and fuel terrorist activity against the United States.

But the theory is disputed by many Middle East experts and is viewed with skepticism by analysts at the CIA and the State Department, intelligence officials said.

Critics say even establishing a democratic government in Iraq will be extremely difficult. Iraq is made up of ethnic groups deeply hostile to one another. Ever since its inception in 1932, the country has known little but bloody coups and brutal dictators.

Even so, it is seen by some as holding more democratic potential — because of its wealth and educated population — than many of its neighbors.

By some estimates, 65 million adults in the Middle East can’t read or write, and 14 million are unemployed, with an exploding, poorly educated youth population.

Given such trends, “we’ll be lucky to have strong central governments [in the Middle East], let alone democracy,” said one intelligence official with extensive experience in the region.

The official stressed that no one in intelligence or diplomatic circles opposes the idea of trying to install a democratic government in Iraq.

“It couldn’t hurt,” the official said. “But to sell [the war] on the basis that this is going to cause 1,000 flowers to bloom is naive.”

Some officials said the classified document reflects views that are widely held in the State Department and CIA but that those holding such views have been muzzled in an administration eager to downplay the costs and risks of war.

[…]

Middle East experts said there are other factors working against democratic reform, including a culture that values community and to some extent conformity over individual rights.

“I don’t accept the view that the fall of Saddam Hussein is going to prompt quick or even discernible movement toward democratization of the Arab states,” said Philip C. Wilcox, director of the Foundation for Middle East Peace and a former top State Department official. “Those countries are held back not by the presence of vicious authoritarian regimes in Baghdad but by a lot of other reasons.”

Bush has responded to such assessments by assailing the “soft bigotry of low expectations.”

Wow. Move over George Kennan. I thought he said that the new regime would be reformers with results, leaders who knew how to lead. He said he had some stong talks with the Iraqi exiles and felt they would make fabulous leaders. He believes they can be united not divided and he promises to smoke out Saddam and keep him on the run. I never heard him say that not believing in fairy tales was the soft bigotry of low expectations though.

And then, there’s the deft handling of US Russian relations.

Oh Dmitri…

Washington had calculated that Putin, a pragmatist, valued Russia’s relationship with the United States above all other foreign policy issues. U.S. officials also thought that Moscow’s interests in the Iraqi oil business and its desire to see Iraq repay $8 billion of debt would be enough to ensure Russian compliance.

There have been some veiled threats, however, notably from a senior Bush administration official in Moscow recently who warned Russia of the economic costs of blocking U.S. objectives.

“What we have said is that if you’re concerned with recouping your $8 billion in debts and if you’re interested in economic opportunities in liberated Iraq, it would be helpful if you were part of the prevailing coalition,” that official said at a background briefing for reporters last month.

“The Americans failed to understand that in order to make Putin change his position on Iraq, it was necessary to offer and actually give him something,” said one Moscow analyst, Viktor A. Kremenyuk of the USA-Canada Institute. “In fact, the Americans have done nothing real to attract Russia and win it over to their side.”

These guys are so gooood.

That official, by the way, was likely our suave and debonair Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security — John “there is no such thing as the UN” Bolton. He’s the Zelig of diplomatic screw-ups.

Be Nice To Colin, Junior

I made a private bet that Colin Powell would resign from this administration over policy. That was 2 years ago and I thought I’d lost. Maybe not.

Fineman seems to think that the scapegoating is about to begin now that even he has acknowledged that the administration’s diplomacy has been a joke. Powell has his own constituency, particularly in the media. The Bushies had better be very, very careful. A Powell resignation could be the tipping point for a Bush freefall.