A smattering of recent ads from the Harris campaign.
You can see them all here.
I think these are pretty good. It’s hard to know if they’re breaking through he cacophony of news and social media noise. But if they do I think they’re effective with the discrete groups they’re trying to appeal to.
I know most of you don’t punish yourselves by going on Truth Social. I do it so you don’t have to. Considering all that’s going on in the election I thought you might wants to know some of what Trump’s talking about when he’s just with his cult. I’ve just cherry picked a few from the last couple of days.
Sure, he sounds totally stable. A perfect person to handle the nuclear codes.
Update. It gets worse:
Elon Musk has more than 250 Billion (with a B) dollars. He could spend a hundred billion of it on this election and still be the richest man in the world. Anything he spends in these last couple of weeks amounts to the change you or I might find in the couch cushions. His fortune is essentially infinite.
He’s all in on Donald Trump and he’s not trying to hide it. Here’s a gift link to the NY Times article. I think you need to read it:
In the final weeks of the presidential campaign, the richest man in the world has involved himself in the U.S. election in a manner unparalleled in modern history.
Elon Musk, seen over the weekend jumping for joy alongside former President Donald J. Trump at a rally in Butler, Pa., is now talking to the Republican candidate multiple times a week.
He has effectively moved his base of operations to Pennsylvania, the place that he has recently told confidants he believes is the linchpin to Mr. Trump’s re-election.
He has relentlessly promoted Mr. Trump’s candidacy to his 201 million followers on X, the social platform formerly known as Twitter that he bought for $44 billion and has used to spread conspiracy theories about the Democratic Party and to insult its candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris.
Above all, he is personally steering the actions of a super PAC that he has funded with tens of millions of dollars to turn out the vote for Mr. Trump, not just in Pennsylvania but across the country. He has even proposed taking a campaign bus tour across Pennsylvania and knocking on doors himself, in part to see how his money is being used.
Taken together, a clear picture has emerged of Mr. Musk’s battle plan as he directs his efforts to elect Mr. Trump with the same frenetic energy and exacting demands that he has honed at his companies SpaceX, Tesla and X.
Gosh, I wonder what he’s going to want in return?
Please read the whole thing. If Trump wins we will have finally reached the full definition of plutocratic kakistocracy.
Vance is interviewed by the NY Times and he will still not say if the 2020 election was stolen. Instead he carries on about censorship again.
Even the dumbest cultist can see that this weird dodge doesn’t make sense. But he’s committed.
I wish they would have asked him about this, however. It’s in their own paper:
After a reporter’s publication of hacked Trump campaign information last month, the campaign connected with X to prevent the circulation of links to the material on the platform, according to two people with knowledge of the events. X eventually blocked links to the material and suspended the reporter’s account.
That’s right. Elon Musk censored material about Trump in coordination with the Trump campaign.
You can’t make this stuff up.
Cathrine Rampell at the Washington Post writes:
How good is the U.S. economy these days? So good that Republicans are pretending the numbers are fake.
GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump has long held a lead over his Democratic rival on economic issues, but lately the gap has narrowed. In the spring, when President Joe Biden was still on the ticket, Trump held a roughly 12-point edge on the economy. Today, Trump remains ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, but she’s cut that margin in half.
Some recent surveys have even found the candidates in a dead heat on economic issues. A recent Cook Political Report poll of swing state voters, for instance, found Trump’s advantage on “inflation and the cost of living” had evaporated completely.
This is remarkable. For most of the past decade, voters overwhelmingly trusted Republicans more on economic issues. They’ve been bummed about the economy during the Biden-Harris administration, often citing the economy or inflation as their top issue.
So how has Harris narrowed the gap?
Trump probably hasn’t helped his case by pitching ever-higher global tariffs, which would probably be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Independent economic analyses have also found that the rest of his agenda (mass deportations, politicizing the Federal Reserve, etc.) would probably worsen inflation and depress growth. The downstream consequences of these policies are not always intuitive, however, so they might not have influenced voters’ perceptions of Trump’s economic agenda all that much.
Trump’s struggles to remember his pitch might have played a role, too. At a recent Michigan event, for instance, a voter asked how he’d keep auto manufacturing jobs in the state. He responded with a rant about a nonexistent “Michigan man of the year” award he apparently hallucinated receiving.
Meanwhile, Harris has managed a “pivot” on the economy. Her policy approach has been directionally similar to Biden’s (she has proposed higher taxes for the wealthy, manufacturing subsidies, a more generous child tax credit, punishing greedy corporations, and so on). Her tone or word choices so far appear more successful than Biden’s, though. As Ben Mathis-Lilley recently wrote in Slate, Harris has subtly shifted public discourse away from past “inflation” and toward a more forward-looking discussion of the “cost of living.”
But the biggest reason for Trump’s shrinking lead on the economy may have little to do with either candidate: The U.S. economy is just doing spectacularly well.
According to the polling, most people still believe it’s terrible even if more people think that Harris will be acceptable as the steward of it over that failed, orange ignoramus. But I think we know that if the orange ignoramus wins, it will suddenly be great because he will take credit for everything that’s happened. He always does.
In 1984, Reagan declared that it was morning in America with much worse numbers than we have now. The inflation we had just been through had been truly horrific with high unemployment on top of it. But people were sick of feeling bad after the years of Vietnam and Watergate and oil shocks and cultural turmoil. Maybe we’re running a little late on that but are getting there. God, I hope so because if Trump wins, the whole thing is going to fall apart.
In every losing campaign’s postmortem the analysts insist that the candidate should have gone where he or she did not. There were many complaints about Vice President Al Gore spending time in California late in the race when he should have been stumping in Florida and I’m sure everyone recalls that Hillary Clinton was excoriated for taking Wisconsin and Michigan for granted in 2016 by failing to hold events there in the closing days of the campaign. Certainly, it’s a general rule of thumb that in close elections, the candidates are supposed to live in the battleground states, especially in the final weeks to eke out every last vote in the electoral college.
So why in the world is Donald Trump holding rallies in the blue enclaves of California, New York and Colorado in the month of October? As far as we can tell, the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada are all close and various combinations of those states will be required to get to 270 electoral votes. And yet Trump will be wasting time in these other states for reasons that are obscure.
One explanation that’s been offered is that Trump just wants to have rallies in highly populated areas because he gets bigger crowds simply because of the population density and he just loves those bigger crowds. After all, he’s not going to win New Jersey but he had a giant rally there last summer that he can’t stop bragging about. (I think the size of the crowd in his mind is probably up to a million people by now but it was actually about 30-40,000.)
As New York boy, Madison Square Garden has no doubt always been on his bucket list. And it is a natural choice since it was the site of a famous America First Nazi rally in 1939 featuring a huge picture of George Washington surrounded by Nazi flags. It’s the perfect place for a sequel. I’m sure very fine people will be in attendance.
Coachella is renowned as a major music festival and Trump likes to say he draws more than Elvis or Springsteen so if he manages to get a good crowd he can brag about that on a loop too. And Aurora Colorado is the site of the alleged migrant “invasion” taking over the town and threatening everyone with MK47 Mutant rifles so he figures the optics will be awesome.
A Trump advisor told NBC News:
“Choosing high-impact settings makes it so the media can’t look away and refuse to cover the issues and the solutions President Trump is offering. We live in a nationalized media environment and the national media’s attention on these large-scale, outside-the-norm settings increases the reach of his message across the country and penetrates in every battle ground state.”
Maybe they’re right. But a whole lot of money, time and effort will go into those three events, things that are precious resources in the last weeks of the campaign all for what amounts to an experiment. Sometimes you get the feeling that Trump is just in a YOLO frame of mind and nobody can stop him.
After all, Trump may just see himself in a win-win situation. If he manages to eke out an electoral victory, it will naturally be the greatest victory the world has ever seen. And if he loses, it will also be the greatest victory the world has ever seen except it will have been stolen by the Democrats. Everyone in America knows that he believes these are the only two possibilities.
And he has persuaded the official Republican party to parrot his fatuous disclaimer that he will accept it if it’s “free and fair.”
And who decides that it was a free and fair election, one might ask? Well, first it will be Donald Trump and we know it can only be free and fair if he wins. He has said that outright:
Trump and his henchmen are working overtime to suppress the vote and may have enough saboteurs in place in some places to delay the counts and disallow some legal votes if things don’t go their way. But it’s is inevitable that he will contest the results regardless of the evidence. .
The Electoral Count Reform Act (ECRA) foreclosed some of the shenanigans from 2020 and put in place some other procedures that will make the casesgo quickly and fit within the deadlines. Even the Supreme Court is required to comply within a certain period of time if they’re dragged into it, which is not unlikely.
But there may be ways that Mike Johnson, if he remains Speaker of the House, can have some input into this as well which may also explain why Trump is doing the two big rallies in New York and California. There are some very tight House races in those two states that may very well be decisive as to whether the Republican Mike Johnson or the Democrat Hakeem Jeffries, currently the minority leader, will be the speaker in the next Congress.
The Manhattan Borough President posted the following on Thursday:
The new congress is always sworn in on January 3rd so the speaker will be seated before the day the electoral votes are counted on January 6th. And that day could unfold in very different ways depending on who has the gavel.
You’ll recall that Mike Johnson, then just another GOP congressman, wrote a Supreme Court brief in 2020 that had the court agreed to take it up could have overturned the election results. When asked if he would do the same this time, he told Politico that his narrow concern at the time had to do with legislatures being usurped by officials who changed the rules to accommodate the pandemic and that it was no longer operative since the legislatures have made all the rules this time.
That does not answer the question as to whether he would file a different amicus brief on another issue such as the hysterical complaints this cycle that undocumented immigrants are voting, which they are not. But if the Trump people are able to gin up enough chaos around this issue, it’s possible that Johnson could decide to take some action.
But Politico asked the big question to which they had no answer: “Does Johnson believe that the Electoral Count Act itself is constitutional and binding on Congress? Trump’s allies in 2020 said it was not, and Johnson has not made his position clear.” Once could also ask if Johnson thinks the ECRA, which reformed the original and somewhat archaic law, is as well. Can any of us feel confident that he won’t say it isn’t?
All of this is to say that Trump seems to have a Plan B in mind if he loses the election again and he wants to make sure he’ll have a Republican House and Senate on January 6th, 2025 just in case they want to contest the transfer of power again. It’s almost as if he’s looking forward to it.
Remember, his campaign manager Chris LaCivita made it clear that they were prepared to contest all the way. He said, “It’s not over until he puts his hand on the Bible and takes the oath…. It’s not over on Election Day. It’s over on Inauguration Day, ‘cause I wouldn’t put anything past anybody.” I assume the Democrats understand this and are prepared for everything, right?
Salon
Charlie Warzel is feaking out over the “depravity and nihilism” of MAGA’s hurricane lies:
Even in a decade marred by online grifters, shameless politicians, and an alternative right-wing-media complex pushing anti-science fringe theories, the events of the past few weeks stand out for their depravity and nihilism. As two catastrophic storms upended American cities, a patchwork network of influencers and fake-news peddlers have done their best to sow distrust, stoke resentment, and interfere with relief efforts. But this is more than just a misinformation crisis. To watch as real information is overwhelmed by crank theories and public servants battle death threats is to confront two alarming facts: first, that a durable ecosystem exists to ensconce citizens in an alternate reality, and second, that the people consuming and amplifying those lies are not helpless dupes but willing participants.
This is nothing new. For the right, truth is no longer an American value. It hasn’t been for decades. MAGA types know spreading propaganda and lies is wrong and they don’t care. They simply have more channels for spreading it, and they’ve done so with glee since the days of pass-it-on emails.
It is difficult to capture the nihilism of the current moment. The pandemic saw Americans, distrustful of authority, trying to discredit effective vaccines, spreading conspiracy theories, and attacking public-health officials. But what feels novel in the aftermath of this month’s hurricanes is how the people doing the lying aren’t even trying to hide the provenance of their bullshit. Similarly, those sharing the lies are happy to admit that they do not care whether what they’re pushing is real or not. Such was the case last week, when Republican politicians shared an AI-generated viral image of a little girl holding a puppy while supposedly fleeing Helene. Though the image was clearly fake and quickly debunked, some politicians remained defiant. “Y’all, I don’t know where this photo came from and honestly, it doesn’t matter,” Amy Kremer, who represents Georgia on the Republican National Committee, wrote after sharing the fake image. “I’m leaving it because it is emblematic of the trauma and pain people are living through right now.”
Kremer wasn’t alone. The journalist Parker Molloy compiled screenshots of people “acknowledging that this image is AI but still insisting that it’s real on some deeper level”—proof, Molloy noted, that we’re “living in the post-reality.” The technology writer Jason Koebler argued that we’ve entered the “‘Fuck It’ Era” of AI slop and political messaging, with AI-generated images being used to convey whatever partisan message suits the moment, regardless of truth.
Truthiness captured the ethos back in 2005. But its accelerant is the creation of infotainment platforms
… that offer financial and attentional incentives to lie and enrage, and to turn every tragedy and large event into a shameless content-creation opportunity. This collides with a swath of people who would rather live in an alternate reality built on distrust and grievance than change their fundamental beliefs about the world …
So much of the conversation around misinformation suggests that its primary job is to persuade. But as Michael Caulfield, an information researcher at the University of Washington, has argued, “The primary use of ‘misinformation’ is not to change the beliefs of other people at all. Instead, the vast majority of misinformation is offered as a service for people to maintain their beliefs in face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.”
There’s little new about this phenomenon since the days when my father forwarded conservative pass-it-on spam with as many as 75 non-blind-copied addresses attached from multiple forwards. What’s changed is the reach of the lies. Their purpose is the same as 20 years ago:
Pass-it-on spams don’t ask people to write their congressman or senator. They don’t ask people to get involved in or contribute to a political campaign. Or even to make a simple phone call. No. Once you’ve had your daily dose of in-box outrage, conservative reader, all these propaganda pieces ask is that you “pass it on” to everyone you know. So now that you’re good and angry — and if you’re a Real American™ — you’ll share it with all your friends so they’ll get and stay angry too.
Warzel concludes:
What we’re witnessing online during and in the aftermath of these hurricanes is a group of people desperate to protect the dark, fictitious world they’ve built. Rather than deal with the realities of a warming planet hurling once-in-a-generation storms at them every few weeks, they’d rather malign and threaten meteorologists, who, in their minds, are “nothing but a trained subversive liar programmed to spew stupid shit to support the global warming bullshit,” as one X user put it. It is a strategy designed to silence voices of reason, because those voices threaten to expose the cracks in their current worldview. But their efforts are doomed, futile. As one dispirited meteorologist wrote on X this week, “Murdering meteorologists won’t stop hurricanes.” She followed with: “I can’t believe I just had to type that.”
Burning witches didn’t stop people from experiencing misfortune or illness, but that’s where this is headed. The explanation for the behavior is as I’ve written before (in fact, over 30 years before). The New York Times is finally on the same page:
“It helps them to regain some measure of control and sense of order at a time when everything feels quite bleak and hopeless,” said Jennie King, who oversees climate disinformation research and policy at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, a think tank that studies online platforms.
The intensity of Helene and Milton’s one-two punch has been difficult to fathom. For many, it has been easier to blame human villains.
Having a diabolical someone to blame is more comfort than admitting shit happens.
Welcome to Salem.
You all know about The Lincoln Project. Unlike traditional Democratic messaging, these former Republicans go for the gut, not the head. They released an ad this morning voiced by actor Ed O’Neill that caught me by surprise. See what I mean.
Like Barack Obama said last night (I’m paraphrasing), when did nonstop shitposting about America become a Republican campaign theme? When did lying to hungry, desperate hurricane victims become okay?
I’ve also mentioned the messaging team behind Amplify ads, tested for being able to move voters and free for you to customize. On Thursday, they sent the ad below. Here’s their description:
Hi Friends,
Tuesday marked 4 weeks until Election Day! Forget PSL. It’s all about GOTV! To mark that milestone and power together for the homestretch push…
Announcing our new 30 Day Content Countdown– join our Signal chat and check out the calendar here to make sure our message-tested content is visible to voters in this home stretch! Invite your communities to join the Signal chat, let’s get LOUD!
This week’s video draws a contrast between Trump-Vance and Harris-Walz on our economic wellbeing – and is strongly effective at moving vote choice and increasing Harris favorability among Spanish speaking voters. Share Antonio – available with English and Spanish captions.
It’s not their only Spanish/English ad.
This is an opportunity for you to be more than spectators in this last month. It’s why (confusingly) I’m on about a half dozen social media platforms. (I’m barely on Instagram.) Make your presence felt. Spread a progressive message widely. (You know the RW bots will spread theirs.)
And thank you for all the kind thoughts and your concern while I was on what felt like Planet Offline for a week after Hurricane Helene. In our connected world, disconnection was disorienting.
(Two weeks later, signal is still sometimes dodgy.)
Barack Obama gave a barnburner of a speech in Pittsburgh tonight. It’s funny and pointed and very inspiring. This is the part Dan Pfeiffer calls the closing argument of the campaign.
I like it.
I thought this part was the most important, however. It seems so obvious but apparently it isn’t relevant to tens of millions of our fellow Americans. It’s a simple call for common decency.
Interesting that Trump was just in Detroit today talking about how terrible Detroit is. I guess he’s just seeding the ground.
