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From The No Good Deed Files

The NY Times reports that the Biden administration has pulled off an amazing success in some places that will never reward him for it:

America’s so-called “left behind” counties — the once-great manufacturing centers and other distressed places that struggled mightily at the start of this century — have staged a remarkable comeback. In the last three years, they added jobs and new businesses at their fastest pace since Bill Clinton was president.

The turnaround has shocked experts. “This is the kind of thing that we couldn’t have even dreamed about five or six years ago,” said John Lettieri, the president of the Economic Innovation Group, a think tank that studies economic distress in the U.S. His group is releasing a report today that details the recovery of left-behind counties.

Those counties span the nation but are largely concentrated in the Southeast and Midwest. In today’s newsletter, I’ll explain how they defied recent trends — including a particularly grim stretch under Donald Trump — to rebound so strongly from the pandemic recession. I’ll also show the one indicator that helps explain why voters there might not reward President Biden for the good news that has happened on his watch.

These 1,000 or so “left-behind” counties suffered greatly over the past two decades under Bush, Obama and Trump, the latter of whom promised to help them and did absolutely nothing:

In 2018, a colleague and I noted that left-behind counties that voted for Trump had not seen any net job gains the previous year. The new Economic Innovation Group analysis shows that, in terms of job growth, left-behind counties experienced three of their four worst years since the Great Recession on Trump’s watch.

The pandemic recession hit those counties harder than the rest of the country, just as the Great Recession did. But their recovery has been much stronger this time. Left-behind counties added jobs five times faster in the first three years of the Biden administration than they did in the first three years of the Trump administration. The flow of residents leaving them for better opportunities slowed.

Perhaps most strikingly, they have shared in a new-business boom that has swept the country since the pandemic. That didn’t happen after the Great Recession. From 2009 to 2016, for example, Bay County, Mich., lost 8 percent of its business establishments. Since 2020, it has gained 12 percent.

According to all the economic determinists that should have sealed the deal for Joe Biden, right?

Wrong. Nobody knows exactly all the factors that have brought about this renaissance but Biden will get no credit in any case:

Whatever the explanation, though, Biden probably should not expect voters in those areas to reward him electorally. Many left-behind counties are solidly Republican, or have moved to the right since Trump first ran. And for all their job and business gains, left-behind counties were hurt by high inflation in the early Biden years. In 2021 and 2022, the typical household income in those counties fell, after adjusting for rising prices. Those price increases have left voters unhappy with Biden on the economy, no matter where they live.

Inflation trumps everything else and Biden is blamed for it despite everything else. In fact, if Trump is elected in November, he will be given all the credit and there will be nothing Democrats can do about it. It’s built in.

But lets face facts. Economics are overrated as the top explanation for people’s voting habits. It’s just that there’s no comfortable vocabulary outside of economics they can use to explain why they love Trump and the fascist movement he represents. It’s tribal identity formed around opposition to liberals, urban dwellers, Black people, immigrants, feminazis etc. and there is great relief and joy for them in being part of that tribe. It’s not about suffering. It’s about grievance and blame and nobody has given those feelings more validation than Donald Trump.

It would be nice if the NY Times gave this story more that a few paragraphs buried deep in the paper but from what I understand that’s Biden’s fault for not making more of a big deal about it so never mind.

About The Fascism

Following my posts below, I thought I’d post Timothy Snyder’s recent post on this:

Mainstream media have treated President Biden with prejudice and arrogance. Quite a few Democrats, reacting to this, treat any mention of President Biden’s fitness as disloyalty. This is mistaken, if understandable.

One source of the negative energy is Trump’s fascism. Focusing on it will not answer the question of what Democrats do, but will help us to understand the context in which the discussion is taking place. By fascism I just have in mind (1) the cult of personality of a Leader: (2) the party that becomes a single party; (3) the threat and use of violence; and (4) the big lie that must be accepted and used to reshape reality: in this case, that Trump can never lose an election.

Much more could be said (as I have done elsewhere), but it is the official big lie and the threats of violence that are dangerous to those whose job is to report truth. Trump is on the record as regarding reporters as enemies of the people. What should I make — a journalist might ask — of Trump’s talk of arresting journalists? When not confronted, such questions become self-realizing fears.

That’s the subtle version. Meanwhile, those higher up in corporations might like the ratings Trump brings, or like Trump himself. And so it is easiest to keep things personal — give Trump time, on the self-deluding logic that he will discredit himself, and focus on Biden’s age rather than his achievements. For reporters it can feel like the work is being done when only Biden is at the receiving end of criticism — whereas, in fact, the ground has been shifted by fascism, or by the inability to confront it.

And so fascism spreads and settles in our minds during this, the crucial period between Trump’s first coup attempt and his second. The Biden administration is being held to standards, while the previous Trump administration is not; and Biden personally is being held to standards, while Trump as a person is not.

This helps to generate a fascist aura. There must be something special about Trump such that he is different from others: a Leader beyond criticism rather than just an indebted hack or a felon from Queens or a client of a Russian dictator. [emphasis mine —d]

It should seem odd that media calls to step down were not first directed to Trump. If we are calling for Biden to step aside because someone must stop Trump from bringing down the republic, then surely it would have made more sense to first call for Trump to step aside? (The Philadelphia Inquirer did). I know the counter-arguments: his people wouldn’t have cared, and he wouldn’t have listened. The first misses an important point. There are quite a few Americans who have not made up their minds. The second amounts to obeying in advance. If you accept that a fascist is beyond your reach, you have normalized your submission.

When media folks describe discussions among Democrats as chaos and disarray, they are implicitly suggesting that it is better for a leader of a party to never be questioned. (Why, after all, is being part of an array a good thing?) An obvious point goes missed: Democrats can say what they want, because none of them is afraid. And that is good! Governor Maura Healey can express her dissent and Joe Biden can express his frustration with her — but no one is worried about her physical safety.

Trump, by contrast, controls his party through stochastic terror, threats issued through social media that his cult followers can be expected to realize. Republicans leave politics because they fear for themselves and their families. Those who remain all obey in advance. That is new, and it should not be normal, and it should not spread any further. But it becomes normal when we treat discussions, and not coercion, as abnormal.

If I am right that much of the energy behind the Biden pile-on is displaced fear of a regime change, much of the media will continue to generate fascist froth for Trump, whether or not Biden is the Democratic nominee — unless, of course, journalists confront their fears, and keep the issue of regime change inside the story, and provide a constructive alternative alongside personal criticism.

There are three tests of good faith for those who are proposing that President Biden step down. The first is recognition that Biden’s first term has been one of extraordinary achievement. The second is a plan for what the Democrats would do, should Biden withdraw, to select a nominee and win the election. The third is recognition that the threat of regime change is what might justify changing the nominee.

Trump has been given immunity by his cult, his party, the Supreme Court and, essentially, the media which has thrown up its hands because Trump’s voters don’t care. The media’s behavior isn’t exactly unprecedented but the stakes have never been higher and they are failing miserably.

Update: I wrote this before Nicole Wallaces show today which also featured it. I urge you to catch it at some point for more on this topic.

Do Not Let Trump Run From Project 2025

Judd Legum has put together a definitive primer on Trump’s connections to Project 2025. These are his people and this is his plan, don’t allow him to pretend otherwise. If the press lets him get away with that it will be the worst dereliction of duty in the US media’s history.

On July 5, Trump posted on Truth Social that he knows “nothing about Project 2025,” has “no idea who is behind it,” and has “nothing to do with them.” 

This is false. 

The co-editors of Project 2025, Paul Dans and Steven Groves, both held high-ranking positions in the Trump administration. Under Trump, Dans served as Chief of Staff at the Office of Personnel Management, the agency responsible for staffing the federal government, and was a senior advisor at the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Groves served Trump in the White House as Deputy Press Secretary and Assistant Special Counsel

Project 2025’s two associate directors, Spencer Chretien and Troup Hemenway, are also tightly connected with Trump. Chretien was Special Assistant to President Donald J. Trump and Associate Director of Presidential Personnel, “helping to identify, recruit, and place hundreds of political appointees at all levels of government.” Previously, Trump appointed Chretien to a position at HUD. Hemenway also served as an Associate Director of Presidential Personnel and previously worked on Trump’s 2016 campaign and Trump’s 2016 transition team.  

Project 2025’s 922-page policy agenda has 30 chapters and 34 authors. Twenty-five of Project 2025’s authors served as members of the Trump administration. Another Project 2025 author, Stephen Moore, was nominated by Trump to the Federal Reserve but forced to withdraw “over his past inflammatory writings about women.” Further, William Walton, the co-author of the chapter on the Department of the Treasury, was a key member of Trump’s transition team

All told, of the 38 people responsible for writing and editing Project 2025, 31 were appointed or nominated to positions in the Trump administration and transition. In other words, while Trump claims he has “nothing to do” with the people who created Project 2025, over 81% had formal roles in his first administration. 

The chapter on the Executive Office of the President of the United States, for example, is written by Russ Vought. As president, Trump appointed Vought to his Cabinet as Director of the Office of Management and Budget. In that role, Vought authorized the rerouting of billions from the Pentagon to fund Trump’s border wall. In his Project 2025 chapter, Vought — a “self-described Christian nationalist” — calls for the abolishment of the Gender Policy Council, an entity focused on “economic security, health, gender-based violence and education—with a focus on gender equity and equality, and particular attention to the barriers faced by women and girls.” Vought is also drafting Project 2025’s “playbook” for the first 180 days of a Trump administration, which will not be shared publicly. 

Trump appeared at a Mar-a-lago fundraiser for Vought’s non-profit group, Center for Renewing America, in August 2022, and declared that Vought would “do a great job in continuing our quest to make America great again.” In addition to his key role in Project 2025, Vought is the policy director Republican National Committee’s platform writing committee and a top candidate for White House Chief of Staff if Trump wins in November. 

Gene Hamilton, a top aide to Trump Attorney General Jeff Sessions, wrote the Project 2025 chapter on the Department of Justice. During the Trump administration, Hamilton drafted Trump’s infamous child separation policy. Hamilton currently serves as Vice-President and General Counsel of America First Legal Foundation, an organization run by top Trump advisor Stephen Miller. 

In Hamilton’s Project 2025 chapter, he advocates for the deployment of active-duty military to the southern border. Hamilton also calls for an elimination of the Department of Justice’s independence from the White House, saying a new Trump administration should “end immediately any policies, investigations, or cases that run contrary to law or Administration policies.” (This would presumably include any cases against Trump himself.) He also proposes using the Office of Civil Rights exclusively to prosecute “state and local governments, institutions of higher education, corporations, and any other private employers” who have diversity initiatives. 

The Project 2025 chapter on the Agency for International Development was written by Max Primorac, the acting Chief Operating Officer for the same agency under the Trump administration. During a 2019 State Department conference on religious freedom, Primorac generated controversy by promoting Trump’s reelection. After Trump lost to Biden in November 2020, Primorac told agency staff not to cooperate with the transition

In his Project 2025 chapter, Primorac argues against providing international aid to combat hunger and starvation. Primorac says the key to ending poverty is encouraging more oil and gas production. He advocates renaming “the USAID Office of Gender Equality and Women’s Empowerment (GEWE) as the USAID Office of Women, Children, and Families” and putting an “unapologetically pro-life politically appointed Senior Coordinator” in charge of the office. 

Here is the complete list of the 31 authors and editors of Project 2025 that have formal connections to the Trump administration. 

I know it’s probably repetitive and boring to hear about this over and over again but it’s the single most important piece of information that we must all have at our fingertips going into this election.

The reason the forces of fascism have not been able to get over in countries around the world is because the people were aware of the danger and they formed coalitions of resistance and voted in vast numbers. It’s the only way to stop this.

There ‘s more at the link and I urge you to read it all.

Speaking Of Cognitive Decline

I realize that we are all concerned about Biden’s recent inability to communicate clearly and what appears to be his frailty which is accelerating. I am concerned too. But I hope that regardless of whether he stays in or there’s a big fight, that we can all keep at least some perspective on the fact that his opponent is even worse.

Yes, his character flaws are immense and his agenda is toxic. But with all this talk about communication and cognitive problems I think it’s important to recall that Trump is also falling apart which makes him a much greater risk in a second term than Biden, even on his worst days. It certainly makes him a bigger risk than the VP or, really, any Democrat no matter how debilitated they might be.

This is not a comedy act. It’s a man whose mental faculties are much chaotic and disturbed than Joe Biden’s

Eugene Robinson wrote this a month ago, before the debate but it holds just as true today:

We in the media have failed by becoming inured to Trump’s verbal incontinence — not just the rapid-fire lies and revenge-seeking threats, but also the frightening glimpses into a mind that is, evidently, unwell. In 2016, Trump said outrageous things at his campaign rallies to be entertaining. In 2024, his tangents raise serious questions about his mental fitness.

His rally on Sunday in Las Vegas offered a grim smorgasbord of examples, but the obvious standout (and not in a good way) is the story he told about being aboard a hypothetical electric-powered boat. He posits that the battery would be so heavy that it would cause the craft to sink, and he relates his purported conversation with a knowledgeable mariner about this scenario. Bear with me, but it’s worth reading the passage in full:

“I say, ‘What would happen if the boat sank from its weight, and you’re in the boat, and you have this tremendously powerful battery, and the battery’s now underwater, and there’s a shark that’s approximately 10 yards over there?’

“By the way, a lot of shark attacks lately, do you notice that? Lot of sharks. I watched some guys justifying it today: ‘Well they weren’t really that angry, they bit off the young lady’s leg because of the fact that they were not hungry but they misunderstood who she was.’ These people are crazy. He said, ‘There’s no problem with sharks, they just didn’t really understand a young woman swimming.’ No, really got decimated, and other people, too, a lot of shark attacks.

“So I said, ‘There’s a shark 10 yards away from the boat, 10 yards, or here. Do I get electrocuted if the boat is sinking, water goes over the battery, the boat is sinking? Do I stay on top of the boat and get electrocuted, or do I jump over by the shark and not get electrocuted?’ Because I will tell you, he didn’t know the answer.

“He said, ‘You know, nobody’s ever asked me that question.’ I said, ‘I think it’s a good question. I think there’s a lot of electric current coming through that water.’ But you know what I’d do if there was a shark or you get electrocuted? I’ll take electrocution every single time. I’m not getting near the shark. So we’re going to end that, we’re going to end it for boats, we’re going to end it for trucks.”

Trucks? He’s actually talking about the transition to electric vehicles, which he has vowed to halt. That entire hallucination is part of Trump’s rationale for one of his major policy positions.

Trump has told the electrocution-or-shark story at least once before, at a rally in Iowa last October. Stormy Daniels, the adult-film actress who received $130,000 in hush money to keep quiet about her sexual encounter with Trump — a payment that led to the former president’s conviction on 34 felony charges — has said that Trump is “obsessed with sharks, terrified of sharks.” Way back in 2013, he declared on Twitter: “Sharks are last on my list — other than perhaps the losers and haters of the World!”

The White House press corps would be in wolf pack mode if Biden were in the middle of a speech and suddenly veered into gibberish about boats and sharks. There would be front-page stories questioning whether the president, at 81, was suffering from dementia; and the op-ed pages would be filled with thumb-suckers about whether Vice President Harris and the Cabinet should invoke the 25th Amendment. House Republicans would already have scheduled hearings on Biden’s mental condition and demanded he take a cognitive test.

He was certainly right about that, wasn’t he?

Trump’s been golfing the past 10 days and letting the Democrats tear each other apart And the media do his dirty work for him. I wonder if the press will even bother to cover him when he comes back. If they do — and they ignore his obvious mental deficiencies — just let it go as Brian Stelter said, because “his base doesn’t care and neither do the GOP elites” you will know once and for all where they stand.

It’s Not Just Us

The fascist threat is global. France stopped them yesterday. Will we?

In the first round of the French snap elections called by President Emmanuel Macron last month, the far right came in first, scaring les pantalons off of everyone in Europe. Not since the Vichy government in the 1940s had France been led by the authoritarian far right. But it looked very possible, especially considering the right wing surge in the European Union elections in the country, which precipitated Macron’s call for elections in the first place. As recently as three days ago, polls showed that the second round would likely lead to such an outcome.

But a funny thing happened on the way to that run-off. The parties of the left formed a National Popular Front party and they joined with the center to block the right. Many of the candidates in each district had to make the hard choice to leave the race so that the stronger member of the opposition could defeat the right.

This incumbent, had to take that gut check and she dropped out saying, “defeats happen, but you can never recover from dishonor.”

It worked and a major upset happened yesterday as the Popular Front and Macron’s centrist party defied the polls coming in first and second, respectively, with the far right National Rally coming in third. It was a strong repudiation of the authoritarian right, defying all predictions going into the election on Sunday. The moment the announcement was made, great throngs in the streets were cheering:

This sweep by the left and center came on the heels of a historic victory by labor in the UK last week, turning out the Tories after 14 years in the majority. That result wasn’t much of a surprise but the scope of it was impressive and the message was clear. With the spectre of far right movements across Europe, the British people said no. Last fall Poland had a similar electoral result. Even Iran elected a reformist president last week over a hard-liner, although the Ayatollah  Khamenei still reigns supreme.

All of these elections, including the aforementioned European Union vote last month which showed growth of the far right in Germany and France, ended up with mixed results for governance. Each country is different and has a unique set of issues and the coalitions that were formed are not necessarily ideologically coherent. But the one thing they all have in common is a desire by a majority of voters to repudiate the far right.

As we recently witnessed in the big D-Day celebrations in June, the memory of World War II is much more vivid in Europe than it is for most Americans. I would imagine that the new rise of fascism is something they feel most acutely as well. Certainly, I suspect the history of Nazism is something they are more aware of. That was made clear by the left’s decision in France to form a coalition named after the antifascist Popular Front in 1936. Instead of allowing the right to exploit divisions on the left and co-opt the center as the Nazis did in Germany,despite being in the minority, they put aside their differences and unified to stand against them.

It was around eight years ago at this time that Americans were watching the UK make a momentous decision, driven by xenophobia and an ascendant right, to leave the European Union, about which they now have major regrets and which has failed to deliver on virtually all of its promises. Here in the U.S. we were also in the midst of one of the weirdest presidential campaigns in our history with the businessman and demagogue Donald Trump having secured the Republican nomination running a populist, anti-immigrant campaign. Trump didn’t even know what Brexit was when he was first asked about it, but he was riding the same wave and a few months later he won as well.

Eight years later there’s still plenty of white, rural rage and generalized discontent in Europe and the U.S. But authoritarian right wing politics can’t seem to gain a majority and unless it’s able to exploit divisions among the opposition or a flaw in the system like the electoral college in the U.S. they can’t successfully seize power. I don’t know if the U.S. will follow the U.K. this time but it’s clear that we’re all in the same boat.

We’re in the midst of a crisis right now with the intense scrutiny of 81 year old President Joe Biden and the doubts about his ability to successfully win the re-match against the 78 year old Donald Trump. As of this moment we have no idea if he will even be in the race a week from now. It’s dominated the news cycle for the past 10 days but as my colleague Amanda Marcotte pointed out, something else has suddenly gained the attention of the public despite all the noise about Biden’s age: the MAGA Manifesto, Project 2025.

It took people outside of the regular news media to make that happen. HBO’s John Oliver did a program on it and the actress Taraji P Henson hosting the BET Awards last week called it out — and they both went viral:

People are becoming alarmed and the Republicans know it which is why Donald Trump tried to distance himself from it. I don’t think anyone believes that he’s read any of the 900 pages of MAGA Kampf but he is the leader of the movement that’s behind it and everyone in the country knows it. Like the neo-fascist movements it is a minority faction and it’s up to the people to vote in large enough numbers to ensure that he cannot win again through the electoral college loophole (something which had only happened once before the year 2000.)

All of this is to say that for all the sturm und drang over Biden’s age and even Trump massive character and intellectual flaws, this election is really about something bigger than both of them. There is a potent far right movement that’s threatening democratic government all over the world and the election is about repelling this authoritarian surge once again. France managed to do it this weekend by forming a popular front and setting their differences and their competing interests aside. America needs to do the same.

Salon

Hell No, Joe Won’t Go

Joe Biden, just-a wrote them a letter

President Biden in a letter to Democratic colleagues this morning writes that he is not blind to concerns people have expressed about his stamina since the first presidential debate.

But, “We had a Democratic nomination process and the voters have spoken clearly and decisively. I received over 14 million votes, 87% ofthe votes cast across the entire nominating process. I have nearly 3,900 delegates, making me the presumptive nominee of our party by a wide margin.” He’s not going anywhere.

After Republican Donald Trump tried to throw out the 2020 election, Biden alludes, throwing out the votes of those primary voters is a bad look for Democrats.

“The voters – and the voters alone – decide the nominee ofthe Democratic Party. How can we stand for democracy in our nation if we ignore it in our own party? I cannot do that. I will not do that.” Despite what the press, pundits, big donors, and groups of individuals may insist.

“The question of how to move forward has been well-aired for over a week now. And it’s time for it to end,” Biden insists.

But it won’t end. Not yet. These are Democrats we’re talking about.

If Biden wants to restore party critics’ confidence, he’d best start landing political haymakers on Donald Trump’s glass jaw. It’s what his voters want to see when they say, “We need Dark Brandon back.”

And start acting more like winners than whiners, for heaven’s sake. The next four months are more about the stakes than the candidates.

The GOP’s candidate for governor in my state declared last week that “some folks need killing.” Act like he means it because he does. Tie that around Donald “shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue” Trump’s neck until his nose bleeds.

If this election is a fight to save the country, start acting like it and don’t depend on the campaign to throw all the punches. That’s what “Repost” is for on FKA Twitter, Threads, Mastodon, Bluesky. Dominate the battle space. Knock some doors, make some calls. Make sure everyone you know knows that Project 2025 means to END AMERICA. Yes, they mean it.

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For The Win, 5th Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV planning guide at ForTheWin.us.

Your Government On Project 2025

Hurricane Beryl slams into Texas

Donald Trump shows off official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration map he altered with a Sharpie to include Alabama in Hurricane Dorian’s trajectory (2019).

The Washington Post reports this morning, “Hurricane Beryl is approaching western parts of Houston after making landfall near Matagorda, Tex., around 4 a.m. Monday, the National Hurricane Center said.” We’ll come back to that.

Friends who worry that the Democrats’ August convention in Chicago will be a replay of 1968 remember the violent clashes in the streets between Vietnam War protesters and Chicago Police. Things did not go smoothly inside the convention hall either. Lost in their furrowed brows is how the 1968 election turned out after President Johnson bowed out of the presidential race at the end of March that year. Democrats lost. In a landslide.

Take a deep breath and think carefully.

The very public navel-gazing among Democrats overJoe Biden’s capacity for the last ten days has overshadowed the Biden comms team’s flooding social media with attacks on Donald Trump’s Project 2025 plans. The Heritage Foundation-led Project 2025 means to lobotomize government agencies by replacing mission-driven, career civil servants with far-right ideologues loyal to Dear Leader. Remember how well that worked during the Iraq occupation?

Stewards of Social Security, Medicare, and Veterans Administration benefits in a second Trump administration, people charged with everything from managing the nation’s nuclear arsenal to delivering accurate crop and — this is timely — hurricane forecasts will be Trump-bots working from a Christian nationalist playbook prepared by Trump loyalists.

I don’t know what Biden is going to do in the next week or so. But I hope Democrats will put out the fires in their hair before asking him to do his LBJ imitation.

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For The Win, 5th Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV planning guide at ForTheWin.us.

FFS. It’s A Virus

(Or maybe a bot…)

It’s just impossible for these people to believe that their fetid ideas are not what people want. I get that they don’t care but they can’t win democratically. I worry about what comes nest once they get that through their heads.

Let’s hope the center left of the US has enough sense to do the same. I wish I was more sure that they do.

Project 2025?

Q: Is Project 2025 ideological lunacy?

Trump VP contender Marco Rubio: No. I think it’s center-right

It’s good to know what’s considered “center right” these days:

By the way:

The three top guys on the Project 2025 website are all former Trump admin staffers:Paul Dans (chief of staff at Trump OPM)

Spencer Chretien (special assistant to Trump)

Troup Hemenway (Trump OPP) 

Of the folks assigned to write or co-write policy chapters, most are Trump admin veterans. These include: 

Russ Vought (Trump OMB, head of GOP platform committee ’24)

Christopher Miller (Acting Trump SecDef on J6)

Ken Cuccinelli (Trump DHS)

Ben Carson (Trump HUD)

Roger Severino (Trump HHS)

William Perry Pendley (Trump BLM)

Adam Candeub (Trump Commerce) 

Brendan Carr (Trump appointee to the FCC)

Thomas Gilman (Trump admin)

Robert Bowes (Trump HUD, Trump campaign)

Peter Navarro (Trump WH NTC; federal prison for Trump)