There’s a new USA Today poll that show Harris beating Trump by one point and Trump beating Biden by one point. (They also polled Hillary Clinton for some reason and she beats Trump by two points.) In other words, it tells us nothing.
Then there’s this:
I don't think of Emerson as the best pollster but on its face this isn't terribly good data for the switch scenario. pic.twitter.com/ZUu5MYYDlZ
As you can see, Biden does best against Trump but they all lose.
If we were to take all this at face value we’d say that this is a party problem more than a Biden problem. And I’m not sure it’s any more of a problem than it’s been through this whole cycle so far.
And then there’s this:
The most important result in our new national poll of registered voters is that a majority of 53% of all voters believe that Donald Trump and his administration would represent “a grave danger to democracy continuing in the United States,” if he wins the election.👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/G8zIAegVoR
Today it does look as if Biden is staying in. And as I’ve been writing since this crisis began, (and even before, to tell you the truth) this isn’t about the candidates as much as it’s about a worldview that’s clashing all over the world. It would be very helpful if we had a president who was vital and exciting but we don’t. And the other side may have someone who’s exciting but he’s also an imbecile who is loathed by half the country.
It’s been close all year and nothing has changed. Yet. Gird yourself.
Public Notice sees fallout from the SCOTUS decision to overturn the Chevron deference doctrine. It’s already heading to courts:
It’s been barely a week since conservatives on the US Supreme Court radically upended the balance of power between the branches of government, giving the federal courts the exclusive power to interpret statutes rather than deferring to agency experts. And we’re already seeing impacts on the ground.
Right-wingers have been in the habit of running to their preferred courts to get regulations overturned, but the decision in Loper Bright v. Raimondo, which officially destroyed agency deference, will make it easier — even routine — to block every Biden administration rule they don’t like.
Lawsuits to invalidate specific rules had been proceeding through the federal courts before Loper Bright, generally arguing that agencies exceeded their authority in promulgating a rule. These lawsuits exist in no small part because the Supreme Court made it clear they would destroy Chevron deference for years now, with Justice Neil Gorsuch having led the way well before his appointment to the Court.
Trump appointee Sean Jordan, who sits in the reliably hard-right Eastern District of Texas, was so eager to block a Biden administration’s overtime rule that he dropped his decision the same day Loper Bright came out. It runs 36 pages and mentions Loper Bright multiple times, which means either Jordan was so confident of the Supreme Court decision that he either wrote it in advance or he hurried to stuff Loper Bright into his already-written opinion.
Jordan’s opinion also rests heavily on dictionary definitions rather than expertise from the Department of Labor, which issued the rule. So now, the rule that would have made 4 million more Texas workers eligible for overtime, and thus more pay, is blocked thanks to a hurried read of a SCOTUS opinion and Webster’s Dictionary.
What this mean is that anytime a business doesn’t like a federal rule, it can just sue. It promises to be a free-for-all. Three hospitals in New Jersey sued HHS the day Loper Bright came down, saying the agency’s interpretation of a statute governing Medicare reimbursement is unlawful.
In another case, filed before Loper Bright, a trucking company challenging the Biden administration’s rule that addressed misclassification of independent contractors filed a memorandum on July 2 arguing that Loper Bright means the court should not defer to the Department of Labor’s interpretation of the law. The next day, Trump appointee Ada Brown of the Northern District of Texas enjoined enforcement of the Biden administration’s rule prohibiting non-compete agreements but limited the injunction to the plaintiffs, which are various pro-business groups like the Chamber of Commerce.
Taken together, it’s evident that any moves the administration makes to tilt the playing field even slightly in favor of workers are designed to fail once they reach a conservative federal judge. And thanks to right-wing judge shopping, plaintiffs are often able to get their case in front of an anti-regulation judge they know will be favorable to their challenges.
You know, if we were not citizens of this country but merely renters, under standing property law we would at least be entitled to the quiet enjoyment of this country. The ownership class might actually respect that. But I wouldn’t count on it even then in the United States of MAGA. There’s no quiet enjoyment in our futures for some time.
It’s that much harder to enjoy the protection of the law when the law is whatever some reactionary judge decides it is today.
Lisa Needham concludes:
… rather than having a well-reasoned rule that applies uniformly across the country, courts will invalidate or uphold rules in a piecemeal fashion based on the whims of judges who are in no way qualified to interpret complex regulatory issues. Those judges, though, are extremely well-qualified to find a way to strike down regulations whenever conservatives demand it. The demise of the regulatory state is as grim as anyone could have possibly guessed, and absent court reform, there seems to be no way out.
How far might the fringe right take this? A gallon of milk or gas need no longer be a gallon. An inch is 2.54 centimeters. Or is it? How many eggs is a dozen? Depends now on how the judge feels today.
Running a presidential election is a specialized job. Among the details to manage is ensuring the candidate gets on the ballot in each state, no minor logistical task. There are filing dates and fees to get onto the state’s primary. There are other deadlines varying by state for when a major party must deliver the names of its presidential candidate (electors) to the state elections board/commission, often from late August to early September.
That is why I call it magical thinking to believe that Democrats can simply swap out their presidential ticket in July. It’s not that it cannot happen, but it is a logistical nightmare. It doesn’t matter that France and England can hold national elections in a couple of months, whatever Jon Stewart says. It doesn’t work that way here. Election laws in the 50 states and territories are not set up for it, and GOP-controlled legislatures will hardly be willing to accomodate rival Dermocrats.
Many voters are unhappy with a rerun of the 2020 contest. Yes, many want younger candidates. So do some reporters. Post debate, reporters for major news outlets want Joe Biden gone. They want the excitement of a major campaign shakeup, and damn the logistics. They want what they want.
Major outlets have yet to call for the insurrectionist, wannabe dictator with 34 felony convictions, more felony cases pending, and a history of sexual assault to step out of the race. They’re leaning hard into “Biden’s unfit,” as Marcy Wheeler picks out.
I should note that I'm seeing some configurations of NYT FP where they DO include comment on the GOP platform: Maggie's misleading spin that it moderates on abortion.
— emptywheel (checking account) (@emptywheel) July 9, 2024
A White House press briefing yesterday devolved into a shouting match. The New York Times declared that “press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, repeatedly dodged and refused to answer questions about the president’s health, and whether [8 visits last year] to the White House by a Parkinson’s doctor were about the president.”
If Biden stays in, the Dems & the media who are hugely invested in his withdrawal w/likely spend the next 4 months subtly undermining him to justify their position. Many won't know they're doing it but the need to say "I told you so" often subconsciously leads people to do that.
That turns out to be a gross mischaracterization (ABC News):
In a letter released late Monday night by the president’s physician, Dr. Kevin O’Connor, he confirmed that Dr. Kevin Cannard, the Parkinson’s expert who visited the White House eight times in an eight-month span, “was the neurological specialist that examined President Biden for each of his annual physicals.”
Canard’s visits to the White House don’t represent examinations of the president, according to O’Connor’s letter. Cannard is involved in a range of care for others beyond the president at the White House, O’Connor said in his note.
“Prior to the pandemic, and following its end, [Cannard] has held regular Neurology clinics at the White House Medical Clinic in support of the thousands of active-duty members assigned in support of White House operations,” his letter reads. “Many military personnel experience neurological issues related to their service, and Dr. Canard regularly visits the WHMU as part of this General Neurology Practice.”
On the subject of Biden’s physical, O’Connor noted that “President Biden has not seen a neurologist outside of his annual physical.”
O’Connor also stressed that Biden’s last physical found no signs of Parkinson’s, which he detailed in a Feb. 28 letter.
Reporters badgering Jean-Pierre had access to that publicly released letter.
As ABC News reported earlier on Monday, an expert in Parkinson’s disease visited the White House eight times over an eight-month span between last July and March of this year, including one visit with the president’s personal physician, according to White House visitor logs.
Asked repeatedly at Monday’s press briefing about Cannard, Jean-Pierre refused to say if the neurologist ever treated the president or consulted on his care, citing privacy concerns, but did say Biden was not being treated for Parkinson’s disease.
MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell took the reporters to task Monday night. The informtion they demanded was available to them in February.
Lawrence: If you saw any of The White House Press Briefing today, it was The White House Press Corps and many of them at their absolute worst.. pic.twitter.com/U5DflrETuA
Democrats in leadership are split. But now it seems members of The Squad, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Rep. Maxine Waters, and others are standing with Biden.
Rep. @AOC: President Biden has made clear that he is in this race. The matter is closed. Biden is our nominee. He is in this race and I support him. He is running against Donald Trump, who is a man with 34 felony convictions. Not a single Republican has asked for Donald Trump to… pic.twitter.com/MOvUu3VQU5
“We’re losing the plot,” Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) told a swarm of reporters at the Capitol on Monday. “We are not talking about what we need to be talking about.”
The Biden fans span the gamut from lefties such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt) and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) to Democrats who’ve won in swing districts and states such as Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) and Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.). Members of the influential Congressional Black Caucus make up a sizable chunk of the defenders. Some have been loud and feisty in their counterarguments, mixing it up with other politicians and people onX and seem, in some cases, to be relishing the fight.
To be clear, I’m a pledged Biden delegate. He’s the candidate until he’s not.
Friends and family have asked if I’m worried about violence in Chicago because they remember the convention there in 1968. What they don’t remember is that the incumbent president (LBJ) stepped aside at the end of March, leading to a contested convention. In November that year, Democrats LOST.
They have brainwashed their audience. And they’ll keep doing it because when they took the tiniest step toward the truth after the 2020 election they all fled to OAN and Newsmax. They won’t make that mistake again.
Anat Shenker-Osorio is a political communications expert and she has some excellent advice for America’s center-left:
The French left just demonstrated precisely how to confront fascism: on offense. Le Pen tried to distance herself from…her own platform – sound familiar? – and the left gave her zero room. /1
— Anat Shenker-Osorio 🟧 (@anatosaurus) July 7, 2024
— Anat Shenker-Osorio 🟧 (@anatosaurus) July 7, 2024
To be sure, the french enjoy the dubious advantage of direct lived experience of confronting fascism. But, nevertheless, stories do not tell themselves:https://t.co/ie3Vby8uBX
— Anat Shenker-Osorio 🟧 (@anatosaurus) July 7, 2024
— Anat Shenker-Osorio 🟧 (@anatosaurus) July 7, 2024
We have a lot more time than they did. And we’re confronting a crisis within the coalition that may or may not be resolved quickly. But this offensive is happening here and needs to ramp up considerably. Trump and the Republicans are furiously trying to disavow Project 2025 and the job of all of us to make sure they cannot.
When Republicans learn more about Project 2025, they become greatly divided on support for it, with significant differences between those who associate with the MAGA movement vs those who do not.
— Navigator Research (@NavigatorSurvey) July 8, 2024
Read the full report by Bryan Bennett (@BryanBennett85) for more polling on Project 2025, and stay tuned as we release parts 2 and 3 of our Project 2025 series this week.https://t.co/R5gXRTFbVg
— Navigator Research (@NavigatorSurvey) July 8, 2024
The NY Times reports that the Biden administration has pulled off an amazing success in some places that will never reward him for it:
America’s so-called “left behind” counties — the once-great manufacturing centers and other distressed places that struggled mightily at the start of this century — have staged a remarkable comeback. In the last three years, they added jobs and new businesses at their fastest pace since Bill Clinton was president.
The turnaround has shocked experts. “This is the kind of thing that we couldn’t have even dreamed about five or six years ago,” said John Lettieri, the president of the Economic Innovation Group, a think tank that studies economic distress in the U.S. His group is releasing a report today that details the recovery of left-behind counties.
Those counties span the nation but are largely concentrated in the Southeast and Midwest. In today’s newsletter, I’ll explain how they defied recent trends — including a particularly grim stretch under Donald Trump — to rebound so strongly from the pandemic recession. I’ll also show the one indicator that helps explain why voters there might not reward President Biden for the good news that has happened on his watch.
These 1,000 or so “left-behind” counties suffered greatly over the past two decades under Bush, Obama and Trump, the latter of whom promised to help them and did absolutely nothing:
In 2018, a colleague and I noted that left-behind counties that voted for Trump had not seen any net job gains the previous year. The new Economic Innovation Group analysis shows that, in terms of job growth, left-behind counties experienced three of their four worst years since the Great Recession on Trump’s watch.
The pandemic recession hit those counties harder than the rest of the country, just as the Great Recession did. But their recovery has been much stronger this time. Left-behind counties added jobs five times faster in the first three years of the Biden administration than they did in the first three years of the Trump administration. The flow of residents leaving them for better opportunities slowed.
Perhaps most strikingly, they have shared in a new-business boom that has swept the country since the pandemic. That didn’t happen after the Great Recession. From 2009 to 2016, for example, Bay County, Mich., lost 8 percent of its business establishments. Since 2020, it has gained 12 percent.
According to all the economic determinists that should have sealed the deal for Joe Biden, right?
Wrong. Nobody knows exactly all the factors that have brought about this renaissance but Biden will get no credit in any case:
Whatever the explanation, though, Biden probably should not expect voters in those areas to reward him electorally. Many left-behind counties are solidly Republican, or have moved to the right since Trump first ran. And for all their job and business gains, left-behind counties were hurt by high inflation in the early Biden years. In 2021 and 2022, the typical household income in those counties fell, after adjusting for rising prices. Those price increases have left voters unhappy with Biden on the economy, no matter where they live.
Inflation trumps everything else and Biden is blamed for it despite everything else. In fact, if Trump is elected in November, he will be given all the credit and there will be nothing Democrats can do about it. It’s built in.
But lets face facts. Economics are overrated as the top explanation for people’s voting habits. It’s just that there’s no comfortable vocabulary outside of economics they can use to explain why they love Trump and the fascist movement he represents. It’s tribal identity formed around opposition to liberals, urban dwellers, Black people, immigrants, feminazis etc. and there is great relief and joy for them in being part of that tribe. It’s not about suffering. It’s about grievance and blame and nobody has given those feelings more validation than Donald Trump.
It would be nice if the NY Times gave this story more that a few paragraphs buried deep in the paper but from what I understand that’s Biden’s fault for not making more of a big deal about it so never mind.
Following my posts below, I thought I’d post Timothy Snyder’s recent post on this:
Mainstream media have treated President Biden with prejudice and arrogance. Quite a few Democrats, reacting to this, treat any mention of President Biden’s fitness as disloyalty. This is mistaken, if understandable.
One source of the negative energy is Trump’s fascism. Focusing on it will not answer the question of what Democrats do, but will help us to understand the context in which the discussion is taking place. By fascism I just have in mind (1) the cult of personality of a Leader: (2) the party that becomes a single party; (3) the threat and use of violence; and (4) the big lie that must be accepted and used to reshape reality: in this case, that Trump can never lose an election.
Much more could be said (as I have done elsewhere), but it is the official big lie and the threats of violence that are dangerous to those whose job is to report truth. Trump is on the record as regarding reporters as enemies of the people. What should I make — a journalist might ask — of Trump’s talk of arresting journalists? When not confronted, such questions become self-realizing fears.
That’s the subtle version. Meanwhile, those higher up in corporations might like the ratings Trump brings, or like Trump himself. And so it is easiest to keep things personal — give Trump time, on the self-deluding logic that he will discredit himself, and focus on Biden’s age rather than his achievements. For reporters it can feel like the work is being done when only Biden is at the receiving end of criticism — whereas, in fact, the ground has been shifted by fascism, or by the inability to confront it.
And so fascism spreads and settles in our minds during this, the crucial period between Trump’s first coup attempt and his second. The Biden administration is being held to standards, while the previous Trump administration is not; and Biden personally is being held to standards, while Trump as a person is not.
This helps to generate a fascist aura. There must be something special about Trump such that he is different from others: a Leader beyond criticism rather than just an indebted hack or a felon from Queens or a client of a Russian dictator. [emphasis mine —d]
It should seem odd that media calls to step down were not first directed to Trump. If we are calling for Biden to step aside because someone must stop Trump from bringing down the republic, then surely it would have made more sense to first call for Trump to step aside? (The Philadelphia Inquirer did). I know the counter-arguments: his people wouldn’t have cared, and he wouldn’t have listened. The first misses an important point. There are quite a few Americans who have not made up their minds. The second amounts to obeying in advance. If you accept that a fascist is beyond your reach, you have normalized your submission.
When media folks describe discussions among Democrats as chaos and disarray, they are implicitly suggesting that it is better for a leader of a party to never be questioned. (Why, after all, is being part of an array a good thing?) An obvious point goes missed: Democrats can say what they want, because none of them is afraid. And that is good! Governor Maura Healey can express her dissent and Joe Biden can express his frustration with her — but no one is worried about her physical safety.
Trump, by contrast, controls his party through stochastic terror, threats issued through social media that his cult followers can be expected to realize. Republicans leave politics because they fear for themselves and their families. Those who remain all obey in advance. That is new, and it should not be normal, and it should not spread any further. But it becomes normal when we treat discussions, and not coercion, as abnormal.
If I am right that much of the energy behind the Biden pile-on is displaced fear of a regime change, much of the media will continue to generate fascist froth for Trump, whether or not Biden is the Democratic nominee — unless, of course, journalists confront their fears, and keep the issue of regime change inside the story, and provide a constructive alternative alongside personal criticism.
There are three tests of good faith for those who are proposing that President Biden step down. The first is recognition that Biden’s first term has been one of extraordinary achievement. The second is a plan for what the Democrats would do, should Biden withdraw, to select a nominee and win the election. The third is recognition that the threat of regime change is what might justify changing the nominee.
Trump has been given immunity by his cult, his party, the Supreme Court and, essentially, the media which has thrown up its hands because Trump’s voters don’t care. The media’s behavior isn’t exactly unprecedented but the stakes have never been higher and they are failing miserably.
Update: I wrote this before Nicole Wallaces show today which also featured it. I urge you to catch it at some point for more on this topic.
Judd Legum has put together a definitive primer on Trump’s connections to Project 2025. These are his people and this is his plan, don’t allow him to pretend otherwise. If the press lets him get away with that it will be the worst dereliction of duty in the US media’s history.
On July 5, Trump posted on Truth Social that he knows “nothing about Project 2025,” has “no idea who is behind it,” and has “nothing to do with them.”
This is false.
The co-editors of Project 2025, Paul Dans and Steven Groves, both held high-ranking positions in the Trump administration. Under Trump, Dans served as Chief of Staff at the Office of Personnel Management, the agency responsible for staffing the federal government, and was a senior advisor at the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Groves served Trump in the White House as Deputy Press Secretary and Assistant Special Counsel.
Project 2025’s two associate directors, Spencer Chretien and Troup Hemenway, are also tightly connected with Trump. Chretien was Special Assistant to President Donald J. Trump and Associate Director of Presidential Personnel, “helping to identify, recruit, and place hundreds of political appointees at all levels of government.” Previously, Trump appointed Chretien to a position at HUD. Hemenway also served as an Associate Director of Presidential Personnel and previously worked on Trump’s 2016 campaign and Trump’s 2016 transition team.
Project 2025’s 922-page policy agenda has 30 chapters and 34 authors. Twenty-five of Project 2025’s authors served as members of the Trump administration. Another Project 2025 author, Stephen Moore, was nominated by Trump to the Federal Reserve but forced to withdraw “over his past inflammatory writings about women.” Further, William Walton, the co-author of the chapter on the Department of the Treasury, was a key member of Trump’s transition team.
All told, of the 38 people responsible for writing and editing Project 2025, 31 were appointed or nominated to positions in the Trump administration and transition. In other words, while Trump claims he has “nothing to do” with the people who created Project 2025, over 81% had formal roles in his first administration.
The chapter on the Executive Office of the President of the United States, for example, is written by Russ Vought. As president, Trump appointed Vought to his Cabinet as Director of the Office of Management and Budget. In that role, Vought authorized the rerouting of billions from the Pentagon to fund Trump’s border wall. In his Project 2025 chapter, Vought — a “self-described Christian nationalist” — calls for the abolishment of the Gender Policy Council, an entity focused on “economic security, health, gender-based violence and education—with a focus on gender equity and equality, and particular attention to the barriers faced by women and girls.” Vought is also drafting Project 2025’s “playbook” for the first 180 days of a Trump administration, which will not be shared publicly.
Trump appeared at a Mar-a-lago fundraiser for Vought’s non-profit group, Center for Renewing America, in August 2022, and declared that Vought would “do a great job in continuing our quest to make America great again.” In addition to his key role in Project 2025, Vought is the policy director Republican National Committee’s platform writing committee and a top candidate for White House Chief of Staff if Trump wins in November.
Gene Hamilton, a top aide to Trump Attorney General Jeff Sessions, wrote the Project 2025 chapter on the Department of Justice. During the Trump administration, Hamilton drafted Trump’s infamous child separation policy. Hamilton currently serves as Vice-President and General Counsel of America First Legal Foundation, an organization run by top Trump advisor Stephen Miller.
In Hamilton’s Project 2025 chapter, he advocates for the deployment of active-duty military to the southern border. Hamilton also calls for an elimination of the Department of Justice’s independence from the White House, saying a new Trump administration should “end immediately any policies, investigations, or cases that run contrary to law or Administration policies.” (This would presumably include any cases against Trump himself.) He also proposes using the Office of Civil Rights exclusively to prosecute “state and local governments, institutions of higher education, corporations, and any other private employers” who have diversity initiatives.
The Project 2025 chapter on the Agency for International Development was written by Max Primorac, the acting Chief Operating Officer for the same agency under the Trump administration. During a 2019 State Department conference on religious freedom, Primorac generated controversy by promoting Trump’s reelection. After Trump lost to Biden in November 2020, Primorac told agency staff not to cooperate with the transition.
In his Project 2025 chapter, Primorac argues against providing international aid to combat hunger and starvation. Primorac says the key to ending poverty is encouraging more oil and gas production. He advocates renaming “the USAID Office of Gender Equality and Women’s Empowerment (GEWE) as the USAID Office of Women, Children, and Families” and putting an “unapologetically pro-life politically appointed Senior Coordinator” in charge of the office.
Here is the complete list of the 31 authors and editors of Project 2025 that have formal connections to the Trump administration.
I know it’s probably repetitive and boring to hear about this over and over again but it’s the single most important piece of information that we must all have at our fingertips going into this election.
The reason the forces of fascism have not been able to get over in countries around the world is because the people were aware of the danger and they formed coalitions of resistance and voted in vast numbers. It’s the only way to stop this.
Trump: No water in your faucets. You ever try buying a new home and you turn on. You want to wash your hair or you wanna wash your hands. You turn on the water and it goes drip, drip the soap. You can't get it off your hand. So you keep it running for about 10 times longer. You… pic.twitter.com/3qAdZnJJF7
I realize that we are all concerned about Biden’s recent inability to communicate clearly and what appears to be his frailty which is accelerating. I am concerned too. But I hope that regardless of whether he stays in or there’s a big fight, that we can all keep at least some perspective on the fact that his opponent is even worse.
Yes, his character flaws are immense and his agenda is toxic. But with all this talk about communication and cognitive problems I think it’s important to recall that Trump is also falling apart which makes him a much greater risk in a second term than Biden, even on his worst days. It certainly makes him a bigger risk than the VP or, really, any Democrat no matter how debilitated they might be.
This is not a comedy act. It’s a man whose mental faculties are much chaotic and disturbed than Joe Biden’s
Here are 3 minutes straight of Donald Trump confusing and forgetting people's names, the names of cities he is in and more pic.twitter.com/OJSixOIBR9
We in the media have failed by becoming inured to Trump’s verbal incontinence — not just the rapid-fire lies and revenge-seeking threats, but also the frightening glimpses into a mind that is, evidently, unwell. In 2016, Trump said outrageous things at his campaign rallies to be entertaining. In 2024, his tangents raise serious questions about his mental fitness.
His rally on Sunday in Las Vegas offered a grim smorgasbord of examples, but the obvious standout (and not in a good way) is the story he told about being aboard a hypothetical electric-powered boat. He posits that the battery would be so heavy that it would cause the craft to sink, and he relates his purported conversation with a knowledgeable mariner about this scenario. Bear with me, but it’s worth reading the passage in full:
“I say, ‘What would happen if the boat sank from its weight, and you’re in the boat, and you have this tremendously powerful battery, and the battery’s now underwater, and there’s a shark that’s approximately 10 yards over there?’
“By the way, a lot of shark attacks lately, do you notice that? Lot of sharks. I watched some guys justifying it today: ‘Well they weren’t really that angry, they bit off the young lady’s leg because of the fact that they were not hungry but they misunderstood who she was.’ These people are crazy. He said, ‘There’s no problem with sharks, they just didn’t really understand a young woman swimming.’ No, really got decimated, and other people, too, a lot of shark attacks.
“So I said, ‘There’s a shark 10 yards away from the boat, 10 yards, or here. Do I get electrocuted if the boat is sinking, water goes over the battery, the boat is sinking? Do I stay on top of the boat and get electrocuted, or do I jump over by the shark and not get electrocuted?’ Because I will tell you, he didn’t know the answer.
“He said, ‘You know, nobody’s ever asked me that question.’ I said, ‘I think it’s a good question. I think there’s a lot of electric current coming through that water.’ But you know what I’d do if there was a shark or you get electrocuted? I’ll take electrocution every single time. I’m not getting near the shark. So we’re going to end that, we’re going to end it for boats, we’re going to end it for trucks.”
Trucks? He’s actually talking about the transition to electric vehicles, which he has vowed to halt. That entire hallucination is part of Trump’s rationale for one of his major policy positions.
Trump has told the electrocution-or-shark story at least once before, at a rally in Iowa last October. Stormy Daniels, the adult-film actress who received $130,000 in hush money to keep quiet about her sexual encounter with Trump — a payment that led to the former president’s conviction on 34 felony charges — has said that Trump is “obsessed with sharks, terrified of sharks.” Way back in 2013, he declared on Twitter: “Sharks are last on my list — other than perhaps the losers and haters of the World!”
The White House press corps would be in wolf pack mode if Biden were in the middle of a speech and suddenly veered into gibberish about boats and sharks. There would be front-page stories questioning whether the president, at 81, was suffering from dementia; and the op-ed pages would be filled with thumb-suckers about whether Vice President Harris and the Cabinet should invoke the 25th Amendment. House Republicans would already have scheduled hearings on Biden’s mental condition and demanded he take a cognitive test.
He was certainly right about that, wasn’t he?
Trump’s been golfing the past 10 days and letting the Democrats tear each other apart And the media do his dirty work for him. I wonder if the press will even bother to cover him when he comes back. If they do — and they ignore his obvious mental deficiencies — just let it go as Brian Stelter said, because “his base doesn’t care and neither do the GOP elites” you will know once and for all where they stand.
The fascist threat is global. France stopped them yesterday. Will we?
In the first round of the French snap elections called by President Emmanuel Macron last month, the far right came in first, scaring lespantalons off of everyone in Europe. Not since the Vichy government in the 1940s had France been led by the authoritarian far right. But it looked very possible, especially considering the right wing surge in the European Union elections in the country, which precipitated Macron’s call for elections in the first place. As recently as three days ago, polls showed that the second round would likely lead to such an outcome.
But a funny thing happened on the way to that run-off. The parties of the left formed a National Popular Front party and they joined with the center to block the right. Many of the candidates in each district had to make the hard choice to leave the race so that the stronger member of the opposition could defeat the right.
This incumbent, had to take that gut check and she dropped out saying, “defeats happen, but you can never recover from dishonor.”
It worked and a major upset happened yesterday as the Popular Front and Macron’s centrist party defied the polls coming in first and second, respectively, with the far right National Rally coming in third. It was a strong repudiation of the authoritarian right, defying all predictions going into the election on Sunday. The moment the announcement was made, great throngs in the streets were cheering:
A video from Paris, of supporters of the Left coalition, waiting for the exit poll to drop at 8pm—and reacting: https://t.co/zUe6txNULj
This sweep by the left and center came on the heels of a historic victory by labor in the UK last week, turning out the Tories after 14 years in the majority. That result wasn’t much of a surprise but the scope of it was impressive and the message was clear. With the spectre of far right movements across Europe, the British people said no. Last fall Poland had a similar electoral result. Even Iran elected a reformist president last week over a hard-liner, although the Ayatollah Khamenei still reigns supreme.
All of these elections, including the aforementioned European Union vote last month which showed growth of the far right in Germany and France, ended up with mixed results for governance. Each country is different and has a unique set of issues and the coalitions that were formed are not necessarily ideologically coherent. But the one thing they all have in common is a desire by a majority of voters to repudiate the far right.
As we recently witnessed in the big D-Day celebrations in June, the memory of World War II is much more vivid in Europe than it is for most Americans. I would imagine that the new rise of fascism is something they feel most acutely as well. Certainly, I suspect the history of Nazism is something they are more aware of. That was made clear by the left’s decision in France to form a coalition named after the antifascist Popular Front in 1936. Instead of allowing the right to exploit divisions on the left and co-opt the center as the Nazis did in Germany,despite being in the minority, they put aside their differences and unified to stand against them.
It was around eight years ago at this time that Americans were watching the UK make a momentous decision, driven by xenophobia and an ascendant right, to leave the European Union, about which they now have major regrets and which has failed to deliver on virtually all of its promises. Here in the U.S. we were also in the midst of one of the weirdest presidential campaigns in our history with the businessman and demagogue Donald Trump having secured the Republican nomination running a populist, anti-immigrant campaign. Trump didn’t even know what Brexit was when he was first asked about it, but he was riding the same wave and a few months later he won as well.
Eight years later there’s still plenty of white, rural rage and generalized discontent in Europe and the U.S. But authoritarian right wing politics can’t seem to gain a majority and unless it’s able to exploit divisions among the opposition or a flaw in the system like the electoral college in the U.S. they can’t successfully seize power. I don’t know if the U.S. will follow the U.K. this time but it’s clear that we’re all in the same boat.
We’re in the midst of a crisis right now with the intense scrutiny of 81 year old President Joe Biden and the doubts about his ability to successfully win the re-match against the 78 year old Donald Trump. As of this moment we have no idea if he will even be in the race a week from now. It’s dominated the news cycle for the past 10 days but as my colleague Amanda Marcotte pointed out, something else has suddenly gained the attention of the public despite all the noise about Biden’s age: the MAGA Manifesto, Project 2025.
It took people outside of the regular news media to make that happen. HBO’s John Oliver did a program on it and the actress Taraji P Henson hosting the BET Awards last week called it out — and they both went viral:
Taraji P. Henson, at the BET Awards, naming Project 2025 as a reason to vote for not only president, but for everything else that will impact our future. 👏🏻 👏🏻 👏🏻 pic.twitter.com/d7G5tzLMTO
People are becoming alarmed and the Republicans know it which is why Donald Trump tried to distance himself from it. I don’t think anyone believes that he’s read any of the 900 pages of MAGA Kampf but he is the leader of the movement that’s behind it and everyone in the country knows it. Like the neo-fascist movements it is a minority faction and it’s up to the people to vote in large enough numbers to ensure that he cannot win again through the electoral college loophole (something which had only happened once before the year 2000.)
All of this is to say that for all the sturm und drang over Biden’s age and even Trump massive character and intellectual flaws, this election is really about something bigger than both of them. There is a potent far right movement that’s threatening democratic government all over the world and the election is about repelling this authoritarian surge once again. France managed to do it this weekend by forming a popular front and setting their differences and their competing interests aside. America needs to do the same.
