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Trump The Incumbent

Published by digby on August 28, 2024

Over the weekend Donald Trump whined that the Harris campaign was treating him like the incumbent and it’s totally not fair:

The fact is that they are framing some of the campaign as a referendum on Trump. And why wouldn’t they? He’s running on the lies about the alleged halcyon days when America was great (2017 -2019) and she’s running on “a new way forward” and “we’re not going back.” If he doesn’t want to be seen as the incumbent maybe he should stop pretending he is one.

From the moment Trump glumly flew off to Mar-a-lago on January 20, 2021 he’s been acting like a president in exile. He’s been running a shadow government, with GOP officials rushing to get his permission before they take any action and everyone clamoring for his dispensation in their election campaigns .One of the most obvious examples of his power with the GOP was his thumbs down on the painfully negotiated bipartisan border bill. He didn’t even pretend that it had anything to do with the policy, he just didn’t want Biden to be able to run on it as one of his accomplishments. He essentially vetoed the bill from his Gilded White House in Florida.

Throughout his time out of office he has run the Republican Party, endorsing candidates, choosing issues and basically acting as the president for his party. He flies around on a plane he calls “Trump Force One” and he uses an ersatz presidential seal at any podium he stands behind. He insists on being called “Mr. President” (never “former“)and everyone around him treats him as if he still is.

And he routinely meets with foreign leaders at his beach club as if they are there for an important state occasion. The events are small and somewhat tawdry (more like people dropping by the see the Duke of Windsor and Wallace Simpson back in the day) but he’s managed to persuade a number of his foreign allies to kiss the ring on the chance that he’ll be back in power soon and will deliver for them.

It’s not usual for presidential candidates to take a foreign trip to demonstrate that they can be presidential on the world stage. (Recall former Wisconsin GOP Gov. Scott Walker’s disastrous trip abroad just before he imploded in the 2016 presidential race.) But having foreign dignitaries come to the US and pay homage to Trump at his Florida resort, as if they are supplicants, is something else again.

Here’s some footage of a visit from Hungarian President Viktor Orban last spring.

He recently met with Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu and staged a fake summit in the what appears to be the Mar-a-lago dining room:

He’s reportedly been talking to his pal Netanyahu in recent days discussing the situation in Gaza. I think it’s fair to assume that he may be exhorting him not to agree to a cease fire or hostage deal in order to ensure Harris doesn’t benefit from any agreements before the election. After all, as we saw with the border bill veto, that’s his M.O.

And then there is the fact that he claims he is the rightful president having supposedly won the 2020 election. Millions of his followers believe that he won that campaign and that he should be sitting in the White House today — maybe forever. There are even people interviewed at his rallies who think he actually is the current president, pulling the strings from behind the curtain.

This week he performed one of the most audacious presidential acting jobs I’ve seen him do since he went into exile. In fact, when I first saw the footage I thought it must be from when he was in office:

He is not a real president and he was using Arlington National Cemetery as a campaign prop to hit Harris and Biden for the Afghanistan withdrawal. It later turned out that he was also taking smiling thumbs-up souvenir pics with unauthorized personnel. NPR reported:

A source with knowledge of the incident said the cemetery official tried to prevent Trump staffers from filming and photographing in a section where recent U.S. casualties are buried. The source said Arlington officials had made clear that only cemetery staff members would be authorized to take photographs or film in the area, known as Section 60.

When the cemetery official tried to prevent Trump campaign staff from entering Section 60, campaign staff verbally abused and pushed the official aside, according to the source.

Trump’s crude spokesman Steven Cheung said it didn’t happen and accused the official of mental illness. Trump’s campaign manager Chris LaCivita called the official a “disgrace.”

This is, of course, just the latest in a long line of Trump’s insults to the military. For someone who loves the idea of being Commander in Chief he sure doesn’t have a high regard for the people who gave their lives in war. (Yes, “suckers and losers“.) It’s something I’ve always found a little bit mystifying. He loves cops. He loves uniforms. But he has absolutely no respect for service members, especially the brass. It’s odd considering that they are required to salute smartly and follow orders. You’d think he’d love that. But I suppose the fact that he issued so many illegal and maniacal orders that they had to object makes him angry.

There are exceptions, of course. The cracked former General Michael Flynn, the disgraced former Admiral Ronny Jackson and certain war criminals he pardoned and invited down to his resort. But for the most part, Trump was always uncomfortable around the military, maybe because it’s not in their nature to sycophantically tell him what he wants to hear. Even when he’s play-acting, as he was on Monday at Arlington, he can’t seem to get it right.

Trump has spent the last four years pretending to still be the president and continuing to dominate our political culture even though he’s really just some rich guy who lives in Palm Beach and likes to run for president. If he didn’t want people to think of him as the incumbent maybe he should have acted like he was for the past four years.

Salon

Voter Registration Surges

Published by Tom Sullivan on August 28, 2024

Good news for Democrats if registrants turn out

There is more than vibes to demonstrate that Kamala Harris leading the Democrats’ ticket has changed the dynamic of the presidential contest. There is data. Tom Bonier summarizes voter registration changes since the changeover.

(In a later tweet, Bonier clarifies that he meant “same time period in 2020” above.)

Young Black women are leading the way, seeing their registration almost triple, relative to the same point in 2020. Young Hispanic women aren’t far behind, with a 150% increase in registration. Black women overall have almost doubled their registration numbers from 2020.

These changes are, unsurprisingly, substantially to the benefit of Democrats. Democratic registration has increased by over 50%, as compared to only 7% for Republicans. These new registrants are modeled as +20 pts Dem, as compared to +6 during the same week in 2020.

What’s “wild,” Bonier adds, is that this voter registration spike “even surpasses the post-Dobbs surge.”

Democrats stand to benefit in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina with their large populations of Black voters. Expanded registration by Hispanic women will not only help keep Arizona in Kamala Harris’ column, but play a larger role in Georgia and North Carolina as well.

My back-of-the napkin analysis of Hispanic/Latino voting patterns in my county indicate that nearly 60% of all HL voters are registered Democrat or UNAffiliated, with 60% of voters under 45 registered UNA. 35% vote irregularly, women more than men by about 3 to 2. But of the nearly one-quarter (22%) of registrants who vote consistently, women outperform men by 2 to 1. About 30% register (likely at the DMV or a social services agency) but never vote; this is a turnout challenge for Democrats. Few (mostly older registrants) were born outside the country per available registration data. This is a young cohort, about 70% are 45 and younger.

New registrants overall have a high propensity to vote the first time.

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For The Win, 5th Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV planning guide at ForTheWin.us.

Tim Walz Does Not Own A Golden Toilet

Published by Tom Sullivan on August 28, 2024

Just reading between the lines here

USA Today:

Democratic vice-presidential nominee and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz appeared on the popular social media account “SubwayTakes” Monday, marking the latest moment in the social media battle defining the 2024 presidential race.

In the video Walz discusses the value of well-kept gutters, regional hardware stores and the Minnesota delicacy that is the Juicy Lucy style hamburger.

The account features host Kareem Rahma interviewing people and asking for “hot takes” on subways, primarily in New York City. The account has over 484,000 followers on Tik Tok.

The Harris-Walz campaign embracing social media that “the kids” like is somehow triggering enough for other media that Slate’s Nitish Pahwa felt the need to punch out a sour grapes warning on Tuesday that it’s a strategy that risks pissing off “anybody who’s open to the idea of voting for her” (read: pundits and mainstream press):

This year, for the DNC’s first in-person gathering since Hillary Clinton’s nomination, the Democratic Party offered credentials to more than 200 influencers and “content creators” operating across the most dominant digital platforms of our day: YouTube, Twitch, Instagram, TikTok…. Reporters there from traditional media sources—including this one—complained about the less-than-ideal working conditions offered to them, while digital natives dressed up for yacht parties hosted on Lake Michigan.

“Democrats, the party that prided itself on supporting institutions and norms of accountability during the Trump years, are embracing this video-centric moment and the journalistic haziness that comes with it,” Pahwa complains. (See the New York Times and CNN for some high-profile, journalistic haziness.)

I get it. Sort of. On Thursday, I attended a digital creators brunch (missed the yacht parties) featuring the messaging team behind the freedoms, families, futures theme of the DNC convention. I was the oldest person there, an old-school blogger, like Billy Pilgrim, out of time and place.

But that discomfort is an easy tradeoff for seeing “dirty hippies” I’ve been in this movement with for a couple of decades finally winning credibility with the Beltway set.

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For The Win, 5th Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV planning guide at ForTheWin.us.

Waaaah!

Published by digby on August 27, 2024

Jack Smith went to a new Grand Jury and got a superseding indictment in the January 6th case in light of the Supreme Court’s immunity case.

Donald Trump seems to be surprised by this:

(FYI: It was Trump’s DOJ in 2020…)

Pig

Published by digby on August 27, 2024

When even Jeanine Pirro objects you should know you’ve gone too far.

He meant it exactly as it sounded.

“Trump Is F—ing Nuts”

Published by digby on August 27, 2024

He’s also a very big baby

He needs a binky:

From inflated crowd numbers and stories about Queen Elizabeth II’s good graces to beauty contests with Kamala Harris and AI endorsements from adoring Swities, it seems the Republican campaign just can’t get enough of itself.

In a move that perhaps recalls one of their top backers having turned Twitter into the world’s largest echo chamber, Trump insiders now claim to have shelled out just under $50,000 to run ads in and around Mar-a-Lago—apparently for the sole purpose of keeping both the presidential candidate and local donors in good spirits.

A source told the Bulwark that this is really about the donors and Trump’s ego is just a happy side effect. I don’t believe it. I think this is all about his ego. (They do this every time.)

George Conway is already there:

 Florida Politics reports [he] has spent upward of “six figures” on a 60-second slot across ESPN, Fox News and the Golf Channel to air in exactly the same cherished Florida spot.

Part of his “PsychoPAC” initiative, Conway’s ad apparently features a solid roster of Trump’s greatest hits, such as references to “the late, great Hannibal Lecter,” claims that “windmill noise causes cancer,” struggles with bottled water and touting bleach as a miracle cure for COVID-19.

Whatever the contents of Trump’s forthcoming Mar-a-Lago clip, it’ll be hard pressed to beat Conway’s overarching message for pithiness. As the PsychoPAC website homepage reads: “Voters have forgotten one important fact: Trump is f—ing nuts.”

As Michael Tomasky in TNR wrote earlier, ridicule against Trump is very powerful. He can dish it out …

Harris’s campaign so far has been a work of genius on several levels, but maybe the most ingenious stroke of all has been the decision to mock Trump—to present him not only as someone to fear but also to ridicule. Harris perfectly encapsulated this two-pronged attack in these memorable lines from her acceptance speech: “In many ways, Donald Trump is an unserious man. But the consequences—but the consequences of putting Donald Trump back in the White House are extremely serious.… Just imagine Donald Trump with no guardrails.”

But the emphasis has been on ridicule (Tim Walz’s “weird” comment, Maryland Governor Wes Moore’s jab at Trump’s bone spurs, Barack Obama’s hilarious hand gesture when he was talking about Trump’s obsession with crowd size). It’s great on three levels. The first is that it must drive Trump nuts, and when he goes nuts, he says especially nutty things. Second, it’s arguably more persuasive to swing voters than calling Trump a fascist. Trump is a fascist, make no mistake. But he’s also ridiculous. Mocking him over his Hannibal Lecter obsession will stick in apolitical people’s minds far more strongly than warning about his plans to wreck the Justice Department, and in its way, it’s just as disqualifying. Do we really want a president who thinks an eater of human flesh, however fictional, was misunderstood?

Apparently, almost half the country thinks that’s just fine.

The Documents Debacle

Published by digby on August 27, 2024

It’s still hard for me to believe that Judge Aileen Cannon had the unprecedented chutzpah to dismiss the Mar-a-Lago stolen documents case against Donald Trump. She should be impeached. It’s beyond outrageous. David Kurtz at TPM:

The timing was breathtaking.

U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon’s wholesale dismissal in July of the indictment of Donald Trump for hoarding national security information at Mar-a-Lago and obstructing efforts to retrieve the materials came on the Monday following the Saturday assassination attempt against the former president.

That Monday was also the first day of the GOP convention and the day that Trump announced JD Vance as his running mate.

You could be excused if you missed the Mar-a-Lago news that day.

Yesterday, Special Counsel Jack Smith filed his appeal brief with 11th Circuit Court of Appeals to have Cannon’s dismissal reversed. It is an airtight case for why his own appointment as special counsel by Attorney General Merrick Garland and the funding for his work were both lawful. It is also an understated but withering deconstruction of Cannon’s deeply flawed decision. The only real bit of news was what the brief didn’t contain: an explicit request that the appeals court remove Cannon from the case.

It is highly likely that Smith prevails at the appeals court, but that victory will not mask the fundamental systemic and institutional failures to hold Trump to account under the rule of law for his crimes in a timely way that halts Trump’s ongoing threat to national security, gives voters a clear picture of who they’re voting for in November, and bolsters public confidence in the ability of the judicial branch to properly function in a crisis.

It’s easy to blame Judge Cannon for this debacle, and she deserves all the scorn heaped on her, but no one judge should be able to wreak this much havoc in such an important case without recourse or accountability. While we properly vest considerable power in individual federal judges, the system has shown its limitations, weaknesses, and ineptitude when confronted with a case of this magnitude.

Looming over these failures is the prospect of Trump winning back the White House then ordering the Justice Department to dismisses the case against him, and as I’ve suggested before, abusing the powers of the presidency to hamstring the judicial branch in various other ways that will sideline it to his autocratic impulses, especially now that the Supreme Court has sanctified him with presidential immunity. To put it more simply, Trump represents an existential threat to the judiciary, too, though it collectively doesn’t seem to grasp the risk.

This is such an excellent point. The judiciary seems to think they’ve got immunity from Trump’s fascism.

Not bloody likely.

As long as they act like his personal lackeys, as Cannon has done here, maybe. But that’s no guarantee as many of Trump’s erstwhile allies have found. One wrong word and Trump will make an example of you, just to show he can.

Maybe the six right wing Supremes like the idea of being Trump’s personal bitches, I don’t know. But if he is elected again I hope they understand that that’s what they’re going to be.

And yes, like so much else in our system of government Trump has found all the weaknesses that required that our institutions be run by people with at least a modicum of integrity.

In Case You Were Wondering

Published by digby on August 27, 2024

People are very, very stupid if they think that the alleged billionaire who lives in a golden estate in Florida and flies around in his own 747 is looking out for them. I hate to say it but: suckers and losers.

Yes, It’s Fascism

Published by digby on August 27, 2024

Right here in America

Wow, just wow:

One of the nation’s largest Latino civil rights organizations is asking the U.S. Department of Justice to open an investigation into a recent spate of state raids on the homes of Latino elected leaders, candidates and political operatives in South Texas.

State investigators tied to state Attorney General Ken Paxton’s office executed search warrants last week at homes across three counties,as part of what Paxton said wasa two-year investigation of alleged fraud and vote harvesting.

The Republican officeholder said in a statement that his office had “sufficient evidence” to confiscate cellphones, laptops and documents. Paxton’s office targeted a Democratic legislative candidate in a swing district important to state Republicans,her political consultant, campaign workers, a local mayor and a city council member in raids on their small-town homes.

Neither Paxton nor the Department of Justice responded to questions Monday.

“We did nothing wrong,” said Mary Ann Obregón, 80, the mayor of Dilley, Tex.,and one of the workerswho recalled being threatened with arrest if she didn’t hand over her cellphone. “That’s what’s eating at us. It is an insult.”

Obregón was one of four Latina women, three of whom were in their 70s and 80s, who said they were intimidated by the morning visits from armed investigators while they were still in their pajamas. Lidia Martinez, an 87-year-old retired educator, and Inelda Rodriguez, 73, a Dilley City Council member, were forced to turn over their phones and laptops.

“It was horrible, gestapo-style,” said Martinez, who added that investigators spent three hours searching her drawers and garage during the raid. “I thought we lived in a free country, not Russia.”

The fact that it was ordered by an actual criminal, Ken Paxton, who narrowly escaped impeachment makes iit just perfect.

It’s happening.