
In fairness, you have to be old to remember when inflation was very high before 2022 when it spiked due to the post pandemic economic upheaval. I do. And I also remember people were still talking about it eight years later even though it had abated years before. There’s something about inflation that just sears into people’s minds and it takes a long time for them to get used to seeing those prices and for wages to feel as if they’ve caught up.
Trump is out there saying outright that it’s a hoax and a scam. And while Biden is hit for trying to take credit for a vastly improved economy and big jobs numbers (which was true) I don’t remember him ever saying that inflation was a hoax. Nonetheless, it was instrumental in taking down Harris because people were , and still are, incredibly agitated over the cost of living which has only gotten worse since Trump took office.
G. Elliott Morris has some thoughts:
Economic malaise is a serious problem for Trump. He won in 2024 because economic anxiety conditioned lots of voters to pull the lever against the incumbent. But now, he is the target of their ire. Losing economy-focused swing voters would cause a bloodbath for Republicans in the 2026 midterms. The 2025 statewide elections and special election in Tennessee’s Seventh District on Tuesday confirm the party is in trouble.
But, in quantitative terms, how bad is this problem for Trump, really? Are we talking about Bush 2008 levels of disapproval? Worse than Trump’s first-term ratings after Jan. 6, 2021? Today’s Chart of the Week: How low could Trump’s approval go?
[…]
The core question we are interested in is the following: What would Donald Trump’s approval rating be if current supporters abandoned him because of economic anxiety?To start with, here are Trump’s job approval and disapproval ratings from my average for SIN sister site FiftyPlusOne. Today, we estimate that 39.7% of adults approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 56.1% disapprove of his job.

For context, this is a pretty bad number. With a -16 net rating, Trump is as unpopular as he was at this point in his first term, and more unpopular at this point than any president who came before him.
So Trump is starting in a pretty bad place. But even at a 39% approval rating, things could be worse. That’s because his approval rating is currently being shored up by Republicans who do not think he is doing a good job on the economy.
He goes on to run a number of complicated simulations that show how low Trump’s approval rating could go if the economy stays the same or gets worse. This would happen if more Republicans who are upset about the economy finally turn on him. He says this could reduce his floor by 1-4 points. But there’s more:
For a final simulation, we can reduce Trump’s approval rating among all Republicans by 10 percentage points. Per YouGov, that is roughly the same decline in support the president has seen since taking office (so it’s not an unreasonable simulation).
Dropping Trump’s approval rating by another 10 points among Republicans puts him at a 33% approval overall. Of course, in that scenario, political independents might also move against the president. Decrease their approval of Trump (from an already terrible 27%), and he ends up at 31.7% overall.That would be almost as bad as his approval rating after the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol (29%, according to the Pew Research Center).
[…]
[A] larger drop in Trump’s approval (to the mid-30s) would require broader political problems, or a sustained decrease in his rating among Republicans — regardless of how they feel about the president’s performance on the economy. Another 10-point drop in Trump’s approval with GOP voters would put him at a 33% rating — near his all-time low.
The implications of this piece for Democratic strategy are two-fold. First, considering campaigning on affordability and Trump’s economic mismanagement is a high-leverage way to reach hesitant Trump approvers inside the Republican Party.
[…]
But second, campaigning on affordability won’t be enough in isolation to drive Trump’s approval down to its previous lows. That will require sustained opposition to the president’s policies in general. And on that subject, there are plenty of unpopular policies to point to.
Trump began his presidency with talk of a broad mandate for change and popular will at his back. But over the last year, we have gotten a lot of data about how small his core constituency truly is. If economic anxiety keeps rising, it’s going to get even smaller.
So, affordability is key as we know. Trump is incapable of admitting that the economy isn’t getting better or taking any responsibility for it and the toadies around him will sing the same tune. It’s clear that people are not buying it and frankly, I think it’s too late to turn it around even if the economy rebounds. As I said, inflation scares the hell out of people and it takes a long time to wring that “vibe” out of the culture. It’s not like recessions, which people are more accustomed to.
But the Democrats can’t just myopically talk about that and nothing else. The country is is an existential crisis with the assault on the constitution and the change in the world order. It’s making everyone feel like they are living on the edge. People may attribute it to the price of eggs but it isn’t and unless the Democrats make it clear that all of this is the result of the white nationalist oligarchy Trump and the Republicans have finally institutionalized they’re going to be held responsible for the chaos right along with them once they win power.
The Republicans need to be utterly repudiated before there is even a slim hope of our liberal order somehow being salvaged enough to rebuild after the carnage of this hideous experiment in reality show politics. They need to walk, chew gum, stand on their heads and sing “The Battle Hymn Of The Republic” all at the same time.










