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Some Polling Notes

Published by digby on August 16, 2024

Harris is now leading in most of the national polls and it appears the swing states are going her way as well. Aaron Blake isolated a few pertinent points worth noting:

Democrats’ big enthusiasm bump — and edge

It’s been evident for a while that Democrats have been injected with huge amounts of enthusiasm since Harris replaced President Joe Biden on the ticket. Call it “vibes” or something else; it’s real. Polls this week reflect that.

While a Monmouth University poll from June showed just 46 percent of Democrats said they were enthusiastic about a Trump-Biden rematch, that number has nearly doubled to 85 percent for the Trump-Harris race. Democrats’ enthusiasm leapfrogged Republicans, whose excitement stayed steady at 71 percent.

In other words, Democrats went from a 25-point enthusiasm deficit to a 14-point advantage, at least on this specific question. (Other polls have tested enthusiasm to vote, which is a somewhat different question, and the two parties have been closer.)

Also notable from the Monmouth poll: Nearly 9 in 10 Democrats say they’re optimistic about the election, compared with about three-quarters of Republicans.And an AP-NORC poll this week showed that 63 percent of Democrats are excited about a potential Harris administration, compared with 57 percent of Republicans for another Trump administration.

Democrats could be getting a Senate bump, too

A big question has been how much Harris’s momentum might filter down to other Democrats this election year — particularly with both the House and Senate very much in play. It wasn’t guaranteed it would help, especially given that Senate Democrats were already overperforming Biden.

Well, we got a big new set of Senate polls from the Cook Political Report on Thursday, and they suggest the Democrats got a significant bump there, too. Democrats improved their margins by an average of four points across five key Senate races: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They now lead in each race by at least seven points.

Democrats also flipped the generic ballot — where people are asked to choose between a generic Republican and a generic Democrat — in two other states that don’t feature a 2024 Senate race: Georgia and North Carolina. In total, Democrats actually gained more down ballot than they did in the presidential race in every state except Wisconsin.

We don’t have a ton of other new polls, but the ones we have do suggest some of these races have moved slightly in Democrats’ direction in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. […]

The ‘double-haters’ break for Harris

My colleague Philip Bump on Wednesday broke down the evolving picture with “double-haters,” or those who dislike both major-party candidates.

The top finding from the Monmouth poll is that they are a shrinking group, declining by about half since Harris’s entry into the race. While about 1 in 5 voters were double-haters before — a historically high number — it’s now about 1 in 10.

Perhaps more important is the big reason for that decline: A lot of them like Harris. And they’re now ready to vote for her.Among voters who still dislike both Trump and Biden, 53 percent say they’re voting for Harris, while just 11 percent say they’re voting for Trump.Previously, those double-haters had been more evenly split between Trump and Biden. Harris winning them over is a big boost for her.

He also observes that JD Vance is very unpopular (maybe because he’s so damned weird) and that other states may be coming into play, notably North Carolina and Florida. Who knows?

I highly recommend this piece by John Marshall on the state of polling in 2024. It’s hard to know what to think about them but Marshall’s analysis is excellent and rings true to me.

Who You Calling Weird?

Published by digby on August 16, 2024

Highlights of the “press conference”

Trump is apparently afraid of campaigning so now he’s just calling “press conferences” and rambling for an hour or so and then taking a handful of questions which he doesn’t really answer.

Speaking of intelligence…

He just can’t stop trashing the military. Here he is saying that giving the Presidential Medal of Freedom to his top donor Miriam Adelman is better than the medal of honor because only broken down or dead soldiers get that one.

“They’re either in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many times by bullets or they’re dead. She gets it and she’s a healthy beautiful woman.”

Project 2025 Undercover

Published by digby on August 16, 2024

Check this out:

NEW We went undercover in Project 2025. Our investigation uncovered details of the secretive second phase of Project 2025 being led by a Trump insider, with plans to feed hundreds of highly-confidential battle plans directly into the Trump transition team. Watch here.

I wrote about Russell Vought a while back. He’s quite the piece of work. I can’t imagine that Trump is happy about this one bit — assuming he is aware of anything at this point but his grievance that Joe Biden unfairly dropped out and made it harder for him to win.

The 900 page Project 2025 is a shocking manifesto. But it’s always been this secret transition and first hundred days plan by Vought that we needed to see. That and the data base of hacks and henchmen they’ve been building to stack the administration are the two aspects of the project that are the most threatening because Trump himself is so addled he won’t have a clue that it’s happened until it’s already done. (Not that he would be against it if he did …)

Kamala Gets Aggressive

Published by Tom Sullivan on August 16, 2024

Harris unveils populist economic plans

Ahead of her planned speech today in Raleigh, North Carolina, Vice President Kamala Harris announced a dozen proposed policies for “lowering costs for American families” (Washington Post):

The most striking proposals were for the elimination of medical debt for millions of Americans; the “first-ever” ban on price gouging for groceries and food; a cap on prescription drug costs; a $25,000 subsidy for first-time home buyers; and a child tax credit that would provide $6,000 per child to families for the first year of a baby’s life.

The last item followed a suggestion earlier this month from JD Vance, the GOP vice-presidential nominee, that the credit be raised from $2,000 per child to $5,000. Harris is also calling for restoring the Biden administration’s child tax credit that expired at the end of 2021, which raised the benefit for most families from $2,000 per child to $3,000.

The flurry of policy positions — just days before the Democratic National Convention in Chicago — represented the clearest articulation yet of how Harris, who has only had a relatively brief time on the national stage, would handle economic policy if elected this fall. Harris has thus far surrounded herself with many former aides to Biden, and her team had made some overtures to business leaders that they hoped reflected a more centrist approach. But the policy positions she embraced Friday suggest she will continue, if not deepen, the party’s transformation under Biden, who pushed for more aggressive government intervention in the economy on industrial, labor and antitrust policies.

Donald Trump, Republicans, and their industrialist backers will come after Harris with torches and pitchforks. Financing details for the policies were not immediately available, but Harris and her party have made a commitment to a “pro working-family agenda,” The Post adds. Their calculation is that victory in November lies down that path.

“Vice President Harris faces a dilemma: On the one hand, America is on a fiscally unsustainable path, and if we’re going to embark on some of the more ambitious programs she’d like to pursue we need more revenue,” said Daniel Hemel, a tax policy expert at the New York University School of Law. “On the other hand, democracy is in peril, and that crisis feels — and is — more imminent than the fiscal crisis, and I think she’s made the correct calculus that sacrificing on fiscal policy for a few hundred thousand middle-class voters in the battleground states is worth it.”

A butter knife to a gunfight?

Policy proposals signal to serious people that Harris is a serious presidential candidate. But Donald Trump operates in a different universe altogether, one of lies and insults. Dana Milbank catalogues a host of Trump’s insults in his Washington Post column this morning in addition to Trump anecdotes that are simply “bananas.” Less-MAGA Republicans are begging Trump to stop. But insults are all he has.

Trump’s disastrous pick for vice president, J.D. Vance, dismissed concerns about a campaign built on insults and “a whole bunch of nonsense.” Vance thinks giving offense is just fine (via Talking Points Memo_:

“The reason people love him is because he is his own man, he is unfiltered and he lets the American people see who he is,” Vance said during a campaign rally in Byron Center, Michigan. “We’d much rather have an American president who is who he is, who’s willing to offend us, who’s willing to tell us the truth, who isn’t a fake who hides behind a teleprompter but lets the American people see exactly who he is.”

So let’s hope Harris is not bringing a policy butter knife to a gunfight. A substantial number of Americans are happy to live in an authoritarian Trumpistan. They are willing to risk themselves and the western alliance to bring it about.

They have abandoned democratic principles to establish a white, Christian nationalist homeland where the land of the free once stood. “Truth, justice, and the American way” is not the 1950s to which they hope to return. They condemn liberal aspirations for equality of opportunity as a demand for equality of outcomes while backing a convict whose foot soldiers are at work rigging election outcomes.

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For The Win, 5th Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV planning guide at ForTheWin.us.

With Apologies For 2016

Published by Tom Sullivan on August 16, 2024

H.L. Mencken was right

Translation: Medal of Honor Winners are suckers.

I still remember reassuring volunteers in October 2016 that despite Trump signs dotting the highways and byways outside the city that there was no way Americans were crazy enough to elect the orange-hued reality star over Hillary Clinton, the former senator and secretary of state. But they did.

He’s not just unfit. He’s not just amoral. He’s a walking repudiation of every aspiration the Founders had for this country.

Behold:

“This is shocking but not surprising because of the pattern,” said MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” co-host Willie Geist. “This is not a one-off, this is the way he thinks about people who serve the country in uniform.” Trump infamously mocked Sen. John McCain for being a POW.

Via Raw Story:

“Yeah, there’s something really warped inside of him, there really is,” Washington Post columnist Eugene Robinson added. “Just something — I guess the word weird is overused, but all that we just played is weird.”

“And it is just appalling that he would speak of America’s heroes that way,” he continued. “I mean, the heroes, many who made the ultimate sacrifice for the country, and he simply does not get it. He doesn’t understand. There’s a connection there that’s not being made, and, you know, you saw it where for years he was president and, boy, if he ever became president again, I would really worry about this country because of that emptiness, that lack inside of him, that lack of empathy, that lack of patriotism. It’s just not there. It’s not there.”

Jim LaPorta of CBS News:

Equivalent means equal in value. The two medals are not comparable other than being the highest award in their fields. A medal being “much better” than the other is a matter of opinion. The Medal of Honor is for extraordinary heroism in the face of great danger on battlefields. The Presidential Medal of Freedom is given for significant achievements in the arts, public service, science and other fields. Recipients chosen often reflect a president’s political and personal interests per CRS.

David Simon of “The Wire” fame:

He is speaking of Miriam Adelson, who charged two German machine gun nests, was wounded sixteen times but managed to pull five other wounded members of a platoon to safety before collapsing herself.

Wait, I just checked the award citation and Ms. Adelson received the Medal of Freedom for donating several million dollars to Mr. Trump’s political campaigns.

Americans elected this soulless grifter to lead them. We actually did that. And incredibly, a plurality of us want to do it again. If we do, we deserve the world’s astonished contempt.

There are people living among us who, once burned by a hot stove, cheerfully stick their hands on it again. Oh, and people like Talks to the Sky.

Do everything you can to make sure they are the ones disappointed on November 5.

Compare and contrast:

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For The Win, 5th Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV planning guide at ForTheWin.us.

Latinos Come Home

Published by digby on August 15, 2024

Good news from Pennsylvania:

Recent polling shows Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris is beating Republican nominee Donald Trump among Pennsylvania voters — a brand new poll by Quinnipiac University, for example, puts her four points ahead. That represents a significant change from when President Joe Biden was still at the top of the ticket.

However, a poll by TelevisaUnivision’s Strategy & Insights provided to WHYY News prior to its publication reveals that shift may have been particularly significant among Hispanic voters in the state. Whereas 39% of Hispanic voters in the Commonwealth said they definitely planned to vote for Biden just before his announcement, 49% now say the same about Harris.

That checks out, according to Sarina Torres, 23, of Allentown.

“I think a lot of that shift comes from Latina voters,” Torres, a college student and movement politics organizer, told WHYY News. “It’s more exciting to vote for a woman of color.”

The TelevisaUnivision poll provides a rare look into voter reactions to Biden being replaced by Harris atop the Democratic ticket. The poll was already being conducted when Biden made his announcement, and researchers were able to record the immediate change in public opinion. Trump saw a marginal gain in votes in his head-to-head contest against the Democratic nominee.

Kathy Whitlock, VP of Strategy & Insights at TelevisaUnivision, warned that it’s still too early to make concrete predictions, but said the poll also gives key insights into a growing voting bloc that may impact the results in what is expected to be a close race in Pennsylvania.

“In the past, it was a virtual tie and this breathed new blood into this cycle,” she said.

Fingers crossed.

Drill, Baby, Drill

Published by digby on August 15, 2024

Will this unreality last after Trump? I suspect it will.The precursors were talk radio and Roger Ailes’ Fox. They aren’t coming back to earth any time soon. They’ve been orbiting Bizarroworld for decades now.

Time For The Summer Purge?

Published by digby on August 15, 2024

It sure looks like someone is thinking about it

Things aren’t going well in the Trump campaign. And, as has happened in both of his previous campaigns, he’s likely looking to fire someone:

Donald Trump has privately expressed faith in his campaign leadership and no firings are currently expected, but senior advisers find themselves in the most vulnerable moment as they struggle to frame effective attacks against Kamala Harris, according to multiple people familiar with the matter.

The past month, starting with Joe Biden’s withdrawal and his endorsement of Harris to succeed him, which propelled her to draw roughly even in key swing state polls, has easily been the most unstable moment for the Trump campaign since its formal launch in late 2022.

In that period, Trump has often committed one unforced error after another as he tries to frame arguments against Harris, struggled to break through the news cycle hyping Democrats’ enthusiasm, and suddenly found himself on the defensive with a narrow window left until November.

The sudden difficulty for the Trump campaign to lay a glove on Harris has led to Trump’s allies seeing an opening for the first time to openly challenge decision-making by senior aides and privately challenge whether some advisers should remain in their positions or be sidelined.

And the past month has been bad enough for the Trump campaign that advisers have taken those challenges – whether from enemies real or perceived – as serious threats or slights that necessitate devoting time and effort to slap down.

In a statement referring to the campaign chiefs Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, a Trump spokesperson said: “As President Trump said, he thinks Ms Wiles and Mr LaCivita are doing a phenomenal job and any rumors to the contrary are false and not rooted in reality.

Uh huh. Sure.

Trump doesn’t really seem to be engaged enough with his campaign to care to tell you the truth. He’s obsessed with his assassination attempt and the fact that Joe Biden isn’t his opponent anymore. To the extent he cares at all, he’s convinced that he can persuade the courts that the election was stolen and take power whether he wins or loses. Or maybe he just wants to whine about the election being stolen and hold court at Maralago with the ragged remainder of his cult until the end of his days.

Honestly, I’m not convinced he really wants to be president again, he just wants to prove that he isn’t a loser. Now that he knows he can convince nearly half the country of that without having to prove it, he may just be satisfied with saying that he won without having to actually do anything. He is almost 80, after all.

He’s Not Even Trying To Win

Published by digby on August 15, 2024

I’ve been pointing this out for a while, but now the media is noticing: Trump is relying on his “election integrity” goons to intimidate voters.. And if that doesn’t work, they’ll use the chaos they create to contest the election. They aren’t even trying to legitimately win.

Some Republicans worry that Trump’s focus on preventing a “rigged” election has hurt the party’s ground game, the get-out-the-vote operations that can be crucial in an election as close as this one.

Trump’s “election integrity” team also has raised concerns among Democrats about potential voter intimidation at the polls.

If Trump loses on Nov. 5, the election teams would be his evidence collectors for what almost certainly would be a barrage of legal challenges — and calls for state officials not to certify the election results.

 Early on, Trump told his team to pour its resources into “election integrity” efforts, saying that he’d take care of generating excitement and turning out voters for his campaign against President Biden.

But now that Biden has stepped aside, Trump faces an invigorated Democratic ticket led by Vice President Kamala Harris, who’s benefitting from the robust ground operation the Biden-Harris campaign built in swing states.

The difference between the Harris and Trump door-to-door campaigns is evident in several states, especially the seven swing states likely to decide the election — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Harris’ team says 330,000 people have worked as volunteers since she announced her campaign last month. The campaign has about 1,500 staffers.

After months of declining to specify the scope of Trump’s ground operations, Trump campaign political director James Blair posted on X that the campaign has hundreds of paid staffers.

Blair told Axios the campaign has 14,000 trained volunteers or “Trump Force 47 Captains” in battleground states. He added that the operation has more volunteers but would not elaborate. Blair also disputed the size of Harris’ volunteer force, calling it “fake numbers on a spreadsheet.”

Trump is relying on Turning Point USA, the Sentinel Action Fund, conservative activist Scott Presler’s group Early Vote Action, and the Faith and Freedom Coalition’s network of churches and Elon Musk’s America PAC to get out the vote. Reports are theat none of them have a clue what they’re doing.

Meanwhile Trump’s campaign has allegedly trained about 160,000 “poll watchers”

At Trump rallies in swing states, large signs with QR codes asking attendees to sign up to “Protect the Vote” are everywhere.

RNC chair Michael Whatley told Axios the goal is to have 5,000 “election integrity volunteers” in each battleground state.

Whatley also told Axios their GOTV operation is aimed at people who haven’t voted before. Maybe they should just start handing out cash?

It’s possible this is all bluster. If their amateur hour of a convention is any example, this campaign is not exactly first rate. But Trump has said repeatedly that there’s no need for a GOTV operation because he is all that’s needed to get his people out to the polls. He certainly believes that. But his rallies aren’t really pulling like they used to and it’s possible that the show has gone on just a little too long, even for the faithful.