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Digby's Hullabaloo Posts

What If He Loses?

Published by digby on August 9, 2024

I keep asking that question and I think we all probably know the answer. He will lose his mind and so will his supporters. Think about this:

In fairness, LaCivita was cutely suggesting that the Democrats were the ones who were going to contest the election of Trump rather than the other way around. But I think we know the reality of that statement, don’t we? Joe Biden certainly does:

Speaking to CBS News’s Robert Costa this week, President Joe Biden offered a pessimistic assessment of the aftermath of this year’s presidential election. “If [Donald] Trump loses, I’m not confident at all” that there would be a peaceful transfer of power, Biden said. “He means what he says. We don’t take him seriously. He means it, all the stuff about, ‘If we lose, there’ll be a bloodbath, it’ll have to be a stolen election.’”

The “bloodbath” comment to which Biden refers was offered at a Trump rally this year and, in context, appeared to refer to theoretical economic damage from Trump not returning to the White House. But the latter part of Biden’s comment, about how Trump is likely to frame any loss as a function of illegality, is unquestionably on the mark. It’s what he did in 2020, as you’re no doubt aware, and two-thirds of Republicans still tell pollsters that they think Biden’s win that year was somehow illegitimate. More than a third of Republicans say there’s solid evidence Biden didn’t win, which — despite four years of feverish looking — there isn’t.

It’s not clear that there’s any way to ensure that Trump’s supporters accept a loss this time around, either.

[…]

Pew Research Center polling conducted last month found that fewer than half of Republicans believed that the election would be “conducted fairly and accurately.” Recent YouGov polling, conducted for the Economist, determined that 8 in 10 Trump supporters think that he will defeat Harris in the election. Should Harris prevail, is it more likely that those Trump supporters will accept the defeat or that they will assume the election wasn’t fair and accurate?

A separate poll conducted by YouGov for the SNF Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University determined that about 30 percent of Republicans who felt the 2020 election was stolen anticipate significant political violence after the election. That poll also found that a lot of Americans are concerned about misinformation — none more than those who reject the 2020 results.

“Republicans who believe Trump won in 2020 are more concerned about misinformation than any other group surveyed,” Johns Hopkins’s Hannah Robbins notes, “and believe ‘liberal media’ are responsible.”

Now you’ve got honest election officials who stood up for the truth last time being drummed out of their jobs either through threats and intimidation or primary elections. And in places around the country, Georgia notably just this week, we see changes to the laws which will allow Trump cronies and GOP henchmen to overturn a legitimate election of Harris with bogus charges of voter fraud and then certify Trump as the rightful winner even though he lost.

The odds are low that Trump would be able to seize power in the event of such a loss. But, as we saw in January 2021, that’s not the only possible negative consequence of his supporters thinking without evidence that the election was stolen.

I’m not sure the odds are as low as he suggests. We don’t know what the courts would do in the event of a state certification crisis. After all, the Supremes intervened in 2000 on behalf of Bush. Three of the justices were appointed by Trump and three of them worked for Bush in that earlier case. Do we really believe that they won’t do it again after what we’ve seen recently?

First things first, of course. Win the election. But nobody should be sanguine that the post election period won’t be complete chaos with an unpredictable outcome. This is what Trump has wrought.

He’s Not Ok

Published by digby on August 9, 2024

Donald Trump is in a bad way. His campaign has completely lost its bearings with the withdrawal of Joe Biden and the ecstatic reception of the Kamala Harris-Tim Walz ticket among the Democratic faithful. He is so upset about losing Biden as his opponent that he’s even taken to posting freaky fan-fic on his Truth Social Platform, hopefully suggesting that Biden is going to storm the convention and take back the nomination:

Some of that is a classic “I know you are but what am I” Trump set-up to rationalize a loss in November. He’s going to say the Democrats staged a coup and usurped the Constitution by replacing Joe Biden on the ballot. It’s laughably absurd but it will soothe him to say it and give his followers something to hang on to.

But it’s also obvious that he just can’t wrap his mind around the fact that he has to run against Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. It’s so confusing to him that he can’t even leave Mar-a-lago anymore. While the Democratic nominees are barnstorming the country with Trump’s VP choice JD Vance trailing behind them with pathetic stunts, Trump himself is doing just one rally this week — in an irrelevant deep red state that he will certainly win.

Philip Bump of the Washington Post has the numbers showing how much he has slowed down:

Trump is holding far fewer rallies than he did in 2016 and has held far fewer public appearances than he did in 2020, the two previous times he sought the presidency.

A review of Trump’s activities in July and August of those previous years shows the difference. From July 1 to Aug. 10, 2016, Trump held 22 rallies, including six days on which he held multiple rallies. Over the rest of August, he added 15 more rallies. This year, he’s held seven rallies with another scheduled for Friday in Montana.

One might guess that he is still spooked from the assassination attempt and fears being back out there but he wasn’t campaigning much even before that. He just doesn’t seem to think he needs to do it because, as he tells his people, he believes that the votes are already there and the main job of the campaign is “election integrity” which translates to suppressing the Democratic vote and contesting the results if he loses.

Nonetheless, he’s obviously agitated over the Harris’s massive small donor fundraising haul over the past couple of weeks which he knows very well is indicative of tremendous enthusiasm for their ticket. (He’s drained his own small donors dry over the past eight years.) And polls showing her taking the lead are driving him to distraction.

According to his former communications director, Stephanie Grisham he’s decided to take matters into his own hands:

Re: Trump’s self-announced press conference today at 2 pm: He’s panicking. I’ve seen this play many times. He thinks his team is failing him & no one can speak better/“save” his campaign/defend him but him. He hates the coverage Harris is getting & thinks only he can fix it.

The questions at the presser couldn’t be heard because of the poor production at Mar-a-lago, but from what we could tell the reporters were extremely polite and demanded no follow-ups which was nice for him. Some of the questions sounded like they might have even been asked by members of his own staff.

For instance, when someone threw him a red meat question about whether former San Francisco mayor Willie Brown dating Harris back in the 1990s had helped her career, Trump told a wild tale about almost dying in a helicopter with him and that Brown had told him “terrible things” about Harris and was “not a fan.” (This is not the first time Trump has made these crude suggestions about her.)

Willie Brown told the New York Times he’s never been in a helicopter with Trump and that he never disparaged Harris to him. It seems that Trump had mistaken Willie Brown with former California Gov. Jerry Brown who did take a helicopter flight with him and Gov. Gavin Newsom to inspect fire damage a few years back. They didn’t speak of Kamala Harris and the helicopter was never in any danger but Newsom recalls Trump incessantly wondering if it might crash.

Oddly, no members of the media are angrily demanding to see Trump’s medical records despite the fact that he appears to be having major memory problems and possibly even delusions.

After declaring that reproductive rights are no longer an issue because he’d “sent it back to the states” which he insists was the desire of liberals and conservatives for 50 years (total nonsense) there was this straightforward question about whether Trump planned to have the FDA ban mifepristone. He answered with a bizarre mish-mash of words about “supplementing” with something “open and humane” and people voting on it that made no sense whatsoever.

Recall that he told Time Magazine he has “pretty strong views” about mifepristone and would be making an announcement “probably over the next week.” That was on April 30th. There’s been no announcement. This latest gibberish is all we have to go on.

And then there were the crowds. He simply could not stop talking about the size of his crowds, complaining that the press was undercounting them even declaring that his January 6th crowd was bigger than Martin Luther King’s March on Washington. Over and over again he kept bringing it up apropos of nothing as if on a loop. It is a long-standing obsession of his that seems to be getting worse.

He did make some news by saying that he had agreed to debate Harris on ABC from which he had earlier backed out. He also announced a debate on NBC and on Fox but he got the dates all mixed up and according to the Harris campaign they’ve only agreed to the original debate on ABC on September 10th anyway. Perhaps others will happen as well but despite Trump’s apparent desperation to have them, nothing has been set.

All in all, it was another Trump trainwreck, perhaps one of his worst but certainly not unprecedented. However, this time, the opposition is taking no prisoners. The Harris campaign put out a very sharp (and hilarious) response:



He was dour and angry and frankly is starting to look a whole lot older, just in the past few months. He’s not enjoying himself and it shows and compared to the excited crowds greeting Harris and Walz this week this sad, pathetic appearance seemed almost funereal. Donald Trump isn’t fun anymore.

I think he’s considering for the first time that he might lose again and he is not psychologically equipped to deal with that reality. Sure, he’ll fight it and tell his supporters that it was stolen and perhaps even incite more violence. But deep down he knows he might actually lose just as he knows deep down that he lost in 2020. There’s a look of panic in his eyes right now. If he fails this time he might just break apart at the seams.

Chris Hayes had a good take on it last night:

Salon

2016 Redux

Published by digby on August 9, 2024

I don’t actually have a problem with showing Trump. People need to be reminded what a decrepit loon he is. I do have a problem with the stupid questions, his unwillingness /inability to answer questions and the media’s docile acceptance of all that. The failure to follow up his gibberish was egregious.

Moreover, the dogging of Harris for an interview or press conference, just as they dogged Clinton and Biden while holding up that Trump garbage as some kind of value to the citizens is outrageous. They are pretty much threatening her with bad press like the horrific press they gave Joe Biden for months:

Nice little campaign you have here…

All In On Freedom

Published by Tom Sullivan on August 9, 2024

Your compromised freedoms are on the line in November

People who don’t believe in democracy don’t believe in America. Nor in its founding principles. Nor in its founding documents. No amount of red, white, and blue garb, no number of oversized flags, decaled monster trucks, and boat parades can conceal that fact. If January 6th was not stark proof enough, where have you been?

Vice President Kamala Harris is saying it without saying it.

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Welcome To The Future, Republicans

Published by Tom Sullivan on August 9, 2024

We’re not going back

If Republicans expect to lead in the 21st century they might first try living in it.

Donald Trump’s view of the world stopped developing along with his emotional maturity before he was a teen.

When the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, Republicans claimed Sir Ronald of Reagan had slain the Evil Empire and won the Cold War. Decades into the 21st century, they are still fighting it, invoking communists and Marxists and socialists (Oh, my!) as a slur against every political foe, always “to the left of [Fox News liberal bogeyman here].” President Harry Truman declared in 1952 that socialism is “a scare word they have hurled at every advance the people have made in the last 20 years.” Scare tactics are still their go-to.

Over 70 years later, The Wall Street Journal this week inveighed against Minnesota under Gov. Tim Walz (D) for moving his state “sharply to the left.” Among Walz’s sins:

• Funding “the North Star Promise Program, which provides free college for students with a family income under $80,000,” including illegal immigrants.

• Creating a state system for paid family and medical leave, capped at a combined 20 weeks a year and funded by a 0.88% payroll tax.

• Mandating that public utilities generate 80% carbon-free electricity by 2030, ramping up to 100% by 2040. He’s a fervent believer in “climate action.”

• Subsidizing electric vehicles by “requiring EV charging infrastructure within or adjacent to new commercial and multi-family buildings,” as the Governor’s office bragged.

• Passing one of the nation’s most permissive abortion statutes that has essentially no limits and no age consideration for minors.

• Declaring Minnesota to be a “trans refuge,” with a law saying that the state will ignore a “court order for the removal of a child issued in another state because the child’s parent or guardian assisted the child in receiving gender-affirming care in this state.”

• Establishing automatic voter registration and letting Minnesotans sign up for a permanent absentee ballot option.

“Make America Minnesota Already,” Catherine Rampell recommends in The Washington Post:

Republicans have smeared Democratic vice-presidential nominee Tim Walz as an “extremist,” “communist” and “left-wing radical.” They warn of the “dangerously liberal” agenda that he’s implemented as governor of Minnesota and that he might soon inflict upon the entire country.

You know what? The country should be so lucky.

In general, Walz’s state agenda has been politically smart, fiscally sound and family-friendly — not to mention long overdue pretty much everywhere else in America.

What Republicans whine are costly expenses, Walz views as sound public investments … in people.

To the idea of universal free breakfasts and lunches for schoolchildren, Walz thinks like Charlton Heston’s Moses in the film. Republicans and the Wall Street Journal play the role of Egyptian slavemasters. “What? Feed the slaves?”

Moses: A city is built of brick, Pharoah. The strong make many, the starving make few. The dead make none.

“Making nutritious meals available to kids, without stigmatizing the poorest among them, is a valuable public investment,” Rampell writes. “A recent meta-analysis of past studies on universal school meals found positive associations with children’s diet quality, food security and academic performance.”

Rampell continues:

Other policies that [Walz] pushed also look like good stewardship of public funds — in addition to being, you know, compassionate.

For instance, Minnesota is developing a program to ensure that kids on Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program are continuously insured from birth to age 6, rather than periodically kicking them out of the program if their family’s income fluctuates slightly.

This is no small mercy. The paperwork required for reapplication is burdensome. It often results in eligible kids losing access to needed medical coverage because of administrative errors, even when their family’s income doesn’t change. Similar programs have been associated with improvements in kids’ health.

Minnesota’s version looks like a pretty good bargain for taxpayers, too. Research suggests that historical Medicaid expansions for kids offer high returns on investment. These policies often “pay for themselves,” says MIT economics professor Nathaniel Hendren, because of “improved later-life health of those children (which reduces future Medicaid spending) and increased later-life earnings (which increases tax revenue).”

Democrats get the idea. You get the idea. But not slavemasters. Not Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R), who she signed a law expanding child labor.

Rampell’s not done:

Other policies Walz has implemented in Minnesota, such as paid family and medical leave, lack detailed, long-term fiscal assessments but are nonetheless associated with improved health outcomes. They also happen to poll phenomenally well.

A recent survey conducted by Morning Consult found that 82 percent of registered voters support paid family and medical leave. Among the supporters: 76 percent of Republicans. I supposed that means three-quarters of Republican voters must be “communists” like Walz, too.

When you’ve lost 76% of Republicans, Republicans, you’ve lost. Welcome to the 21st century. It looks like Minnesota.

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Trump Says He Should Be In Charge Of The Fed Because Of His Better Financial Instincts

Published by digby on August 8, 2024

Says the man just found to be liable for half a billion dollars for committing massive business fraud:

Yeah:

That “Kamala Crash” thing didn’t pan out for Trump. But that won’t stop him from telling his cult that it’s happening anyway. Fox News pointing out the reality is undoubtedly driving him crazy.

Georgia Gone Rogue

Published by digby on August 8, 2024

Yes, they are actually doing that — again. It’s absurd. Meanwhile, Trump will not be allowed to lose Georgia again:

After being praised by Trump, Georgia’s un-elected, administrative State Election Board changed the state’s election certification rules. Georgia House Democratic Whip, @SamForGeorgia warned the rule change could delay the state’s 2024 election results. 

The 3 GA Board of Election members who voted to change these rules were praised by Trump during his Saturday rally in Atlanta, he specifically thanked them by name. Many of these members were appointed to the State Election Board recently. 

Atlanta Journal Constitution reports:

Two rules approved by the State Election Board in a possibly illegal meeting last week appear to have been suggested by the Georgia Republican Party.

Documents obtained by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution show Georgia GOP Chairman Josh McKoon sent the text of the rules to board member Rick Jeffares several days before the meeting. McKoon also shared talking points summarizing why the rules should be adopted.

Jeffares and two other Republican board members later approved one of the rules McKoon suggested and approved a scaled-back version of the other.

On Wednesday, two of the Republican board members defended their actions. They said the meeting was legal and — though they were appointed to the board by Republicans — they are not doing the party’s bidding.

Sure.

They are planning to de-certify a Harris win. It’s obvious. And I’m not sure they won’t be able to get away with it. This plan will be in effect anywhere where they can install their henchmen in election offices.

Swift Boating For Dummies

Published by digby on August 8, 2024

This is so ridiculous. But considering that they smeared Silver Star winner John Kerry, POW John McCain and Gold Star parents, not to mention calling members of the military a bunch of suckers and losers, it’s clear that nobody’s off limits. It should just be expected that Trump and his MAGA cult will denigrate anyone’s service.

Here’s Vance smearing General Barry McCaffrey:

By the ways, McCaffrey had two children and two grandchildren in the military too. But whatever. JD Vance has no limits. But let’s not kid ourselves. This “tradition” started before Trump. His campaign manager Chris LaCivita came to fame with the swiftboat smear. They’ve been going down this road a long time.



When America Was Great

Published by digby on August 8, 2024

It felt like the system was working. But I’m not sure it was…

More Trending

Published by Tom Sullivan on August 8, 2024

More bad news for Team Trump

Okay, I’m just now getting to Ezra Klein’s podcast with Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota. Listen to this guy. He’s sound. I’ll finish after this posts.

Meantime, Walz’s opponent for vice president, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, continues to have his woes:

Several polls have indicated that Vance has overwhelmingly underperformed among American voters, making him the least popular nonincumbent veep candidate since 1980. Vance’s popularity has sunk by 8.8 percentage points since his vice presidential candidacy was announced at the Republican National Convention, according to a polling average aggregated by FiveThirtyEight.

One poll conducted by Public Policy Polling on July 31 found that 47 percent of polled Americans found Vance to be unfavorable, while just 30 percent considered him favorable. An ABC News-Ipsos poll conducted between July 20 and July 27 found that Vance’s favorability had dropped by nine points, and an AP-NORC poll conducted between July 15 and July 29 saw Vance’s favorably drop by eight points.

<sad trombone>

Okay, don’t get cocky. Get busy. I ran out between posts this morning to hang Democratic lit on a dozen doors in a narrow, compact, cul de sac community I could not get into the other day for the kids and parked cars. (I’m running my own, unsanctioned political operation. Long story.)

Register. Vote. Volunteer.

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For The Win, 5th Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV planning guide at ForTheWin.us.