Magyar is in. Swalwell is out.

Regarding MAGA darling Viktor Orbán’s stunning defeat in Hungarian elections on Sunday, a couple of observations about Péter Magyar’s landslide victory before mine.
Bottom line, writes Anne Applebaum in The Atlantic, “if Orbán can lose, then his Russian and American admirers can lose too.” Carry that with you everywhere like a key ring fob.
Applebaum details many of Orbán’s structural advantages that Magyar’s Tisza Party had to overcome, including an “extraordinary web of international illiberal and far-right supporters” and Orbán’s control of the media.
After 16 years of what Orbán himself described as an illiberal regime, the Hungarian leader’s political party, Fidesz, had come to control much of the judiciary, bureaucracy, and universities, as well as a group of oligarchic companies that in turn controlled a good chunk of the economy.
Michelle Goldberg adds:
The geopolitical consequences of Magyar’s victory could be profound. Under Orban, Hungary has vetoed aid to Ukraine and sanctions on both Russia and Israel. Magyar’s movement is hostile to Russia; people at his rallies have taken up the chant “Russians, go home,” a slogan from the 1956 Hungarian Revolution. “There is a strong narrative of commitment to the European Union and NATO,” said Zsuzsanna Végh, an analyst at the German Marshall Fund. And since Magyar doesn’t have a personal relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, she said, “some sanctions against Israel would likely be acceptable” to a Tisza government.
But what Hungarians faced inside their country, Goldberg suggests, “was a choice between the center right and the authoritarian right.” Tisza is not a left-leaning alternative to Orbán’s Fidesz Party. Orbán has all but eliminated the left in Hungary. But Magyar should be less likely “to demonize L.G.B.T.Q. people the way Orban did.” It’s a start.
The incoming Parliament “will be the first since 1989 with no left-wing representation, in part because many progressive candidates stood down to avoid splitting the anti-Orban vote.” What remained of the Hungarian left viewed the contest as a matter of practical, if not Machiavellian politics. Their support for Magyar did not rely on his passing purity tests. The result? Orbán is out.
Which brings me to Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) of California.
Amidst allegations of sexual misconduct that collapsed his campaign for governor in California, Swalwell announced on Sunday that he would withdraw from the race:
“I am suspending my campaign for Governor,” he posted on X. “To my family, staff, friends, and supporters, I am deeply sorry for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past. I will fight the serious, false allegations that have been made — but that’s my fight, not a campaign’s.”
Owing to California’s “jungle primary” system (the top two vote-getters advance to the general), Democrats now face a choice ahead of the June 2 primary. Swalwell was leading the polls on the Democratic side. It’s not clear where his supporters go now. If California Democrats cannot coalesce support behind one of the remaining Democrats, they could in theory hand the next governorship to Republicans. Especially if Republicans consolidate their support. It’s not likely, but then neither was Donald Trump in 2016.
Newsweek reports that according to the Kalshi prediction market, Tom Steyer now has a 56 percent chance of becoming governor, up from 51 percent on Sunday. Katie Porter’s odds are now 17 percent, up from 5 on Sunday. Also, “The Democratic Mayor of San Jose, Matt Mahan is close behind Porter. There is a 16 percent chance that he will win the race.”
I know nothing about Kalshi betters or if they even understand how California’s top-two primary works.
Already I’m seeing talk that, despite their progressive credentials, Porter’s staff issues and billionaire Steyer’s being able essentially to buy the governorship are deal breakers for some on the left. Maybe Xavier Becerra can come from behind to edge out one of the Republicans on June 2? Who will Swalwell support? And does anyone want his support at this time?
Whatever. California progressives should be at least as strategic as their counterparts in Hungary. Set aside the purity tests long enough to ensure that two Republicans don’t advance to the November election.
Over at The Bulwark, Tim Miller advises lefties to welcome MAGAs who feel betrayed by Donald Trump into the fold. Take yes for an answer “from various and sundry cranks and kooks not because we agree with their crazy or bigoted ideas but because any successful political coalition will contain some cranks,” Miller observes:
If you feel tempted to dismiss this welcoming approach as arising from an overly earnest, soft-boi impulse, just look at the question from a purely Machiavellian perspective: The more people who bail on Trump the better.
For a political party, what is the good in shunning or mocking these people? If some former Trump voters enter into an uneasy alliance with the Democrats, even temporarily, because they are pissed about the war—great!
Similarly, how about a little Machiavellianism among friends, California? Get it together.












