Digby's Hullabaloo Posts

When the going gets tough

TFG has had many bad weeks, but the last couple have been especially bad. Vice President Kamala Harris now leads in some national and swing state polls. President Joe Biden’s success in winning (hear that word, Donnie?) the release of prisoners held in Russia has TFG flummoxed. His “unmitigated caucasity” (as a friend put it) in explaining blackness to the National Association of Black Journalists has neither won him friends nor expanded his voting base.

Now the orange-hued, former wrestling promoter is trying to brand Harris as dumb and — xenophobia being his signature chokeslam — as failed “Border Czar Harris.” In TFG’s dim mind, the Biden approach is both weak and dumb.

Actual data undercut that argument, Greg Sargent observes. Not that facts mean anything on the right. Border crossings have dropped for the fifth straight month per unpublished data obtained by CBS News and The New York Times, Sargent explains: 

These numbers badly undermine Trump’s primary attack line on Harris—and not just in the most obvious way. It’s self-evident that declining migrant apprehensions counter Trump’s claim that the border is out of control due to alleged Biden-Harris weakness and stupidity. But it’s also important to dwell on why the numbers are falling, because this will demonstrate even more clearly that Trump’s ongoing attacks over this issue are nonsense—and that the truly “dumb” approach is Trump’s.

The dropping border numbers are often attributed to Biden’s new executive actions, announced in June, that effectively suspend asylum-seeking when border encounters rise above certain thresholds. The idea is that, if migrants can’t seek asylum here, it disincentivizes making the trek to the border to try to apply for it.

The Biden-Harris approach involves thinking and diplomacy:

But there’s another reason for the dropping numbers: Mexico. As many immigration analysts have noted, Mexico has intensified its crackdown on migrants journeying north, bussing them back to the southernmost part of the country. That has served as a major impediment to migrants trying to journey from Central America to the U.S.-Mexico border.

Little is known about the precise role that Biden played in getting Mexico to institute this crackdown. But Andrew Selee, president of the Migration Policy Institute, says most analysts agree that Biden’s private diplomacy with Mexican President Andres Manuel López Obrador played a crucial part.

[…]

In other words, the declining numbers don’t merely illustrate that Biden’s asylum restrictions are having an impact. They also show that viewing the problem as one to be solved in no small part through diplomacy in the Americas—as Harris deeply believes to be true—is also the smarter approach. (The entire Trump attack is also nonsense for other reasons: There’s no link between migration and crime, and crime is sharply down under Biden in any case.)

Trump’s preference is the immigration equivalent of Tim The Tool Man’s always disastrous “more power.” More wall. More punishment. More shoot-them-in-the-legs.

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You would have thought that the TV celebrity politician would have seen that:

Even Sen. JD Vance’s allies realize the relative political newcomer has taken a huge leap that was bound to run into some early stumbles.

The Ohio Republican is the most politically inexperienced GOP vice-presidential nominee in almost 90 years. He’s run in just one election for any political office.

“You know, he’s gotten shot out of a cannon. It’s like going from zero to 60 in terms of intensity, publicity, scrutiny, all that stuff,” said Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), an early supporter of Vance in his 2022 Senate campaign.

No kidding. Anyone running as the understudy to a 78 year old president who is clearly losing his mind will receive a lot of scrutiny which is why you might pick someone with tons of experience who has been thoroughly vetted — which he clearly was not. They were completely unprepared for the very online Vance’s record.

And he has virtually no experience:

At 39, Vance is the second youngest of the 100 senators. His selection as Trump’s running mate has prompted deeper looks at his years spent as a best-selling author who served as provocateur on his many cable TV appearances.

[…]

Now that President Biden, 81, has withdrawn from the race, Republicans have bracedfor more scrutiny over the gravitas of their vice-presidential pick given that Trump, 78, faces similar questions about his age and capabilities to serve a four-year term.

Since World War II only one other major party nominee has chosen a running mate with such little experience.

By August 1972, Sargent Shriver had served as the first Peace Corps director and as ambassador to France, and had led a White House anti-poverty program, but had never run for political office when Democrats turned to him. His nomination only came out of dramatic necessity, however, when the original choice — then-Sen. Thomas Eagleton, with 12 years of statewide elective office under his belt in Missouri — withdrew following revelations about his mental health.

Otherwise both parties have tended to use the vice-presidential pick as a balancing act, either for regional or ideological balance or for reassurance of the No. 2 being ready step into the job, according to Donald A. Ritchie, the Senate’s historian emeritus.

He is so not ready. He hasn’t done one thing in his life that would lead any responsible person to think he is qualified to lead the United States. He and Trump make quite a pair.

Here’s just another little tid-bit from Project 2025 (P. 455) you might find interesting:

They want the states to track every miscarriage, pregnant cancer patient, stillborn and abortion. If you think this is just about late term abortions you aren’t paying attention. They are planning to track women’s reproductive lives in the most intimate detail.

Trump is trying to disavow Project 2025. But does anyone think he actually cares about women’s reproductive rights or really women at all? They’re sex trophies and mothers to him, nothing more. (Even his first daughter who he sees as the former.) If he doesn’t ever have to run for election again (which he won’t, one way or the other) he will let the white natalist weirdos who are crawling all over MAGA world do whatever they want.

In case you are tempted to believe Trump’s fatuous claim that he secured the release of prisoners without giving anything up in return, here’s a fact check:

Criticizing the Biden administration’s recent prisoner swap of Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout for WNBA star Brittney Griner as “a one-sided disaster,” former President Donald Trump wrongly boasted that his administration “got 58 hostages released from various hostile countries without paying any money, or giving up anything.”

In fact, several of the deals resulting in the release of Americans held hostage or being wrongfully detained abroad came as a result of prisoner swaps during Trump’s time in office.

In November 2019, the Trump administration secured the release of American Kevin King and Australian Timothy Weeks, who were being held by the Taliban, in exchange for the release of three senior Taliban leaders being held in jails in Afghanistan.

In December 2019, the U.S. did a prisoner exchange with Iran, freeing Xiyue Wang, a graduate student at Princeton University who was serving a 10-year sentence in Iran on espionage charges. To secure Wang’s release, the U.S. freed Masoud Soleimani, an Iranian scientist convicted of export violations.

In July 2020, the Trump administration secured the release of Michael White, a Marine veteran jailed in Iran on charges of insulting the country’s supreme leader, in exchange for the release of a dermatologist convicted on export violations.

In October 2020, a deputy assistant to Trump helped broker a deal to free two Americans being held hostage by Iranian-backed militants in Yemen in exchange for the release of about 250 Houthi rebels being held in Oman.

So he’s full of shit. But you know that.

In a Feb. 7, 2020, story for the New Yorker, Joel Simon, a fellow at the Tow Center for Digital Journalism at Columbia University, wrote that Trump “repeatedly pushed the boundaries of the no-concessions policy upheld by Republican and Democratic Presidents since Nixon. Trump’s style of resolving cases is more personal and more flexible.” In contrast to former President Barack Obama, Simon wrote, Trump “has gone out of his way to highlight his personal engagement in hostage-recovery efforts, welcoming hostages home on national television or inviting them to Oval Office photo opportunities. Trump seeks to showcase his skill as a deal maker and gain the political benefit of bringing Americans home.”

In a February 2019 review of a book on hostage negotiation by Simon, Jason Rezaian of the Washington Post, who was held hostage by Iran for 544 days, discussed the messy and morally fraught business of negotiating the release of overseas hostages and noted Trump’s successes on this front.

“No government has found a way to prevent hostage-taking, and the practice is getting more widespread,” Rezaian wrote. “But this is one area where the Trump administration has had some success. Andrew Brunson, a pastor detained in Turkey, was released in October 2018 after the United States imposed sanctions and tariffs. Joshua Holt, a Mormon missionary, was freed in May 2018 after nearly two years in a Venezuelan prison following separate meetings by two U.S. senators with President Nicolás Maduro.

“But a question still nags: Those releases came at what cost? For no hostage is ever freed for nothing,” Rezaian wrote.

That is correct. The alleged “deal maker” made prisoner swaps just like every president. He did it for his own personal aggrandizement but that’s just par for the course. The results were the same.

It’s a terrible business. But you cannot leave innocent people in prison if you have the means to get them out. Trump knows this. He just lies.

That energy has a familiar feel:

Look around and you might see it: the telltale signs that the #Resistance has been born again.

A-list celebs are rallying for and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris; Zoom calls of Black, Latino, female, and young voters are reaching capacity; the coconut-tree and brat memes keep coming. Even cringe and earnest #Resist merch is back — now in the form of organic Kamala Harris merch.

The political movement that materialized organically, protested policy decisions, and eventually helped end Donald Trump’s presidency may now be taking on a second political life with the goal of not just beating Trump, but electing the first woman president.

None of this was a sure thing. Just a few months ago it looked a lot like the anti-Trump #Resistance was dead.

Progressive organizers and activists were exhausted; Trump fatigue had settled in. And voters of all kinds were tuned out and unenthusiastic about the candidate choices they had.

That dynamic has flipped — for now. But what remains uncertain is whether this energy can mobilize record numbers of voters like it did in 2020, or if it exists in a bit of an echo chamber, like the energy that fired up Hillary Clinton’s hardcore supporters but failed to produce a winning coalition…

 they are primarily being organized by the same kinds of activist groups and organizations that were important during the rise of the original #Resistance — groups like Run for Something, Indivisible, Moms Demand Action, and Swing Left. Many function independently of any official Democratic campaign or the party itself. Others are newer, like Voters of Tomorrow or Gen Z for Change, which focus on reaching younger voters, or are issuing their first political endorsements, like March for our Lives.

The author questions whether this is just happening in the Progressive bubble. I don’t know, but I kind if doubt it. It does feel like “The Resistance” emerging but it’s combined with more than a touch of Obamamania. That seems potent to me.

Another accomplishment to add to Biden’s legacy

A Big F-ing Deal:

A prisoner swap at a Turkish airport on Thursday involving seven countries freed the Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and two other Americans held in Russia, along with several jailed Russian opposition figures, the White House said, in the most far-reaching exchange between Russia and the West in decades.

The scope of the deal has little precedent in the post-Soviet era. For the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union, Moscow freed prominent dissidents as part of a swap; 16 people in total were released from Russian custody. In exchange, eight people were freed by the West, after a complex web of negotiations that took place behind the scenes for months among nations that are otherwise bitterly at odds over Russian aggression in Ukraine.

The exchange took place at the international airport in Ankara, Turkey’s capital, and involved seven different planes ferrying 24 prisoners from the United States, Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Norway, and Russia, a Turkish intelligence official said.

The deal seemed sure to prompt jubilation among Western nations that had condemned the charges against the imprisoned Americans and opposition figures as baseless and politically motivated. It also delivered a diplomatic victory for President Biden, who has long pledged to bring home imprisoned Americans and to support Russia’s embattled pro-democracy movement.

It was also a triumph of a different sort for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who can use the deal to highlight his loyalty to Russian agents who get arrested abroad. But the deal also carried risks at home for him, by releasing imprisoned politicians who could energize Russia’s moribund, exiled opposition.

Biden: Good afternoon. This is a very good afternoon. A very good afternoon. Today, we are bringing home Paul, Evan, Alsu, and Vladimir… pic.twitter.com/OSraChpmbF

— Acyn (@Acyn) August 1, 2024

Notable detail: Just an hour before Pres. Biden announced he was exiting the 2024 race last month, he was on the phone with his Slovenian counterpart, "urging them to make the final arrangements" for this massive prisoner swap, according to a senior administration official.

— Monica Alba (@albamonica) August 1, 2024

The Biden administration leaned on @VP Kamala Harris at key moments to help secure the prisoner deal, including two high-level meetings in Germany with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golab, said a senior administration official pic.twitter.com/afUj4srVw3

— John Hudson (@John_Hudson) August 1, 2024

Meanwhile, no:

Vance tells @scontorno of the prisoner swap: “We certainly want these Americans to come back home…But we have to ask ourselves, why are they coming home?…it's because bad guys all over the world recognize Donald Trump's about to be back in office, so they’re cleaning house"

— Alayna Treene (@alaynatreene) August 1, 2024

That is an 11 minute super cut of the most outrageous moments of Trump’s appearance before the National Association of Black Journalists yesterday. He only stayed for half an hour until his team stepped in and ended the interview, it was that bad.

I think he was startled by the questions because he is so rarely put on the spot by journalists (Tapper and Bash for example) and doesn’t know how to smoothly respond. And he’s been in his MAGA bubble so long that he’s persuaded himself that Black people actually love him.

Earlier, Tom surveyed some of the responses to Trump’s weird and disturbing racist responses to questions put before him. Most were shocked and appalled. I was curious about how Republicans responded and according to Axios they were “reeling.”

“It was awful,” one House Republican said of the interview, telling Axios it raised concerns about whether Trump can contain his impulses while running against the first woman, Black and Asian American vice president.

Sen Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said of the Trump campaign: “Maybe they don’t know how to handle the campaign, and so you default to issues that just should simply not be an issue.”

“That was not a demonstration on how to win over undecided voters,” another House Republican said.

Senate candidate Larry Hogan of Maryland piped up too but note that only two had the guts to put their names to it. Most wouldn’t comment at all when asked.

This has probably marked the end of the attempt by GOP leadership to persuade their people not to attack Harris on race and gender. Speaker Mike Johnson told his people to refrain from doing it the other day and others made statements to the press declaring their intention not to do so:

Trump’s performance all but shredded an effort by Republican leaders to stop their party from going after Harris’ identity, including by calling her a “DEI hire,” as several House Republicans have done.

“I think the better approach is to focus on their policies of Kamala Harris … that’s what I’ve been talking about,” said Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), the Senate GOP’s campaign chief.

“To be focusing on on anyone’s race or gender when there are plenty of things to talk about on the issues that voters actually care about is frustrating for a lot of us,” said a third House Republican.

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said it is “not a great idea for either of the parties to be playing racial identity politics.”

Trump can’t help himself. This is who he is. That goes all the way back to the 70s and 80s when he was sued for racial discrimination and demanded that innocent Black kids be given the death penalty. It’s not a mystery, And he believes he won the 2016 election because he wasn’t afraid to be a crude, angry sexist and racist white guy standing up for “Real Americans.” His political rise was fueled by birtherism, after all. He believes it’s his super power.

And the campaign is rolling with it:

Trump’s remarks on Wednesday’s panel weren’t a one-off. His campaign, for now at least, seems to be leaning in. Trump followed up by posting a 2019 video of Harris discussing her Indian heritage with Indian-American actress Mindy Kaling, labeling Harris a “stone cold phony.” At his rally hours later in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, the Trump campaign displayed a Business Insider headline recognizing Harris as the first Indian-American elected to the Senate. Speaking before Trump, lawyer and Trump adviser Alina Habba said: “Unlike you Kamala, I know who my roots are.”

But leave it to the epic shape-shifter JD Vance to be the least self-aware person in the GOP:

“So what he said, I thought it was hysterical,” Vance said. “I think he pointed out the fundamental chameleon-like nature of Kamala Harris. And you guys saw yesterday, she was in Georgia, and she put on a southern accent for a Georgia audience. She grew up in Vancouver. What the hell is going on here? She is not who she pretends to be.”

“I know you are Kamala, but what am I” Vance added.

It was a train wreck but one that will benefit Trump with his base. If nothing else, he’s back in the spotlight which is the only thing that makes him feel alive.

Only Biden could fix it

Checkpoint Charlie no longer exists, but dramatic prisoner exchanges between NATO countries and the former Soviet Union still occur, albeit rarely. The largest prisoner swap since the end of the Cold War is happening right now.

CNN:

There is expected to be a large-scale prisoner swap between the US and Russia, including a number of Americans, according to a source familiar.

The parties have agreed to a prisoner transfer and that prisoners are expected to soon be in US custody, according to a senior administration official.

Some of the Americans that have been discussed as part of the negotiations are Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former US Marine Paul Whelan.

More:

Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former US Marine Paul Whelan are expected to be a part of the swap, according to a senior administration official said.

Thursday’s swap comes after months of quiet and complicated negotiations between Moscow and Washington, which included US diplomats scouring the globe for offers to entice Russia to release the Americans.

Gershkovich was arrested in March 2023 while on a reporting trip to Yekaterinburg. He was found guilty of espionage by a Russian court on July 19 and sentenced to 16 years in prison in a trial that the US government, his newspaper and supporters have denounced as a sham.

Whelan – who is a US, Irish, British and Canadian citizen – was detained at a Moscow hotel in December 2018 by Russian authorities who alleged he was involved in an intelligence operation.

Still more:

Jonathan Franks, the spokesperson for the “Bring Our Families Home Campaign,” a coalition of family members of Americans detained abroad, said both Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former US Marine Paul Whelan’s expected release “is going to be a legacy piece for President Biden, adding the administration has “brought home a historic number of people” during his administration.

Putin will do that for me but not for anyone else. pic.twitter.com/7IAnjeleK2

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) August 1, 2024

The nice thing about not running for reelection is you can make unpopular decisions — like pleading out the 9/11 masterminds and trading spies for journalists — you might otherwise delay.

Now make get cannabis legalization done (I know he's working on it).

— emptywheel (srian) (@emptywheel) August 1, 2024

No news as yet who is swapping who for whom., but seven countries are reportedly involved.

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You watched with mouths agape

A former federal official, 34-time convicted felon and adjudicated sex offender, the Republican Party’s 2024 nominee for president, is experiencing media-spotlight withdrawal symptoms. Since the close of his party’s convention, he has been displaced in the news cycle by his woman-and-cat-hating choice of running mate and the Democrats’ bi-racial, non-male replacement for President Joe Biden who withdrew from the race.

In a desperate bid to wrest back public attention, the Republican candidate agreed to take questions before the annual meeting of the National Association of Black Journalists. His behavior and racist statements were the equivalent of self-immolation. Mouth agape stuff, the NABJ agreed with gasps. Perhaps most notably when he suggested Vice President Kamala Harris is not really Black.

“I didn’t know she was Black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn Black and now she wants to be known as Black. So, I don’t know, is she Indian or is she Black?” Trump said.

For any other candidate, this racist attack would be the end of his/her campaign. For Donald Trump, it was just a Wednesday. If he threw all caution aside to get the attention he so needs more than oxygen, he succeeded.

Time to bring back the line from 2016: not every Trump voter is a racist, but everyone who votes for him has decided that his racism isn’t a dealbreaker.

That’s the undeniable truth.

— Mehdi Hasan (@mehdirhasan) August 1, 2024

That’s just about all the attention I’ll give him here. But let his niece, psychologist Mary Trump, recommend the appropriate response from normal people:

Donald, though, is not somebody to fear on his own. He is a weak, fragile man who is yes, deeply weird and deeply disturbed. He needs to be mocked mercilessly. He told us recently, that the one thing he hates, probably more than anything else, is to be laughed at.

For us not to laugh at him, not to mock him is to miss an opportunity. It isn’t mean or impolite or in bad form to mock and laugh at or make fun of somebody who wants to destroy us. We have to go full throttle because as we get closer to the election, we’re going to see the terms of the fight unfold and as bad as what they’ve been saying so far has been, it’s going to get worse.

We need to be ready to counter the danger with joy, the weirdness with mockery. And we need to keep laughing.

Stepping up to the plate, #WhenITurnedBlack began trending on Xitter. Echoing #lettersfromthesecondcivilwar that trended around July 4th in 2018, users began sharing personal stories of when they too turned Black.

We now know Kamala’s brave story. When did the rest of you “turn” black? How old were you? Where were you when the blackness finally took over your body? Share your stories. This is a safe space. #WhenITurnedBlack pic.twitter.com/URBx3fqcbh

— Roy Wood Jr- Ex Jedi (@roywoodjr) July 31, 2024

Leon Langford @MasonLLL

I spent my first three Thanksgivings as a Caucasian, but the first time the yams touched the Mac and cheese on my plate, everything changed. Hair, nappy. Rhythm, instilled. Shea butter, right between the fingers. #WhenITurnedBlack

Akilah Hughes @AkilahObviously

I turned Black when the Spice Girls came out. Suddenly I *was* Scary Spice in every play date. #WhenITurnedBlack

King E ⚔️ @1kingethan

I was outside with a group of white friends, around 6 years old, the streetlight started to crackle and none of them moved, I said I have to go home now, they looked at me like I was crazy. That’s when I knew I had to be black #WhenITurnedBlack

This is a serious moment in American History nothing to joke abo— oh what the heck. #WhenITurnedBlack https://t.co/glmAAG9oLg

— Robin Young (@hereandnowrobin) August 1, 2024

The saddest part of this trending hashtag are stories that are not at all funny.

I was born a Black woman but I "turned Black" the first time a white kid called me a n*gger on the playground. That's when I realized that not everyone sees me as a person. They see me as a color.#WhenITurnedBlack https://t.co/jWUyijQc8K

— Deshundra Jefferson (@DeshundraTweets) July 31, 2024

If anyone not in the MAGA cult is unaware, that’s how Donald Trump sees all non-white people who won’t kiss his ass.

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Trump spent the 2016 campaign saying that Hillary Clinton didn’t have the “strength and the stamina” to be president, which was his thinly veiled way of saying that a woman can’t do the job. He’s doing the same thing to Harris:

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump suggested thatVice President Harris wouldn’t be able to stand up to world leaders because of her appearance, adding that he didn’t want to spell it out but viewers would know what he meant.

“She’ll be like a play toy,” Trump — who has a history of using sexist attacks and stereotypes in campaigns against women — said in a Fox News interview with Laura Ingraham, a portion of which aired on Tuesday night. “They look at her and they say, ‘We can’t believe we got so lucky.’ They’re going to walk all over her.”

Trump then turned to look directly at the camera and added: “And I don’t want to say as to why. But a lot of people understand it.”

The campaign tried to clean it up:

Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said he was not referring to race or gender and went on to criticize Harris over her record on immigration and other Biden administration policies

If that was what he was talking about he certainly could have said outloud that on Fox News. He’s right about one thing. We all understand exactly what he was saying.

I kind of suspect that when world leaders look at the narcissistic elderly imbecile in the orange make-up and weird Flock of Seagulls hairdo, they know exactly what they’re dealing with. Talk about a “play-toy.”