Iran throws a flurry of missiles and drones at Israel
Iran retaliated for Israel’s April 1 “bombing of its consular building in Syria that killed two of Tehran’s top commanders.” Buckle up (CNN this morning):
In decades of antagonism between Israel and Iran, there has never been an attack by Iran inside Israel. This crosses a threshold. What happens next rests on whether Israel will listen to the United States and not escalate the cycle of retaliation.
Iran’s massive drone and missile wave was 99% intercepted, and Israel said damage was limited. Triggered by Israel’s April 1 strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria, the barrage brings the region to a boil. We still don’t know exactly why Israel carried out the strike in Syria, but analysts say Iran was forced to respond for its own internal consumption and to demonstrate strength in the region. For its part, it says the matter is now concluded.
President Joe Biden said the US will not join any Israeli offensive against Iran. The very real question is whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will listen to the warnings of his biggest backer.
Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak told CNN Israel had won this round and Netanyahu must think before any further action, warning that Israel is still stuck in Gaza, hostages remain captive, and the Lebanon-Israel border is highly volatile.In the meantime, despite the current escalation between Israel and US intelligence say there is no evidence Iran planned or acted in Hamas’s October 7 attacks.
Biden has a chance to tamp this down before things spiral out of control. If he doesn’t or can’t, God knows what comes next in the Middle East or for him in this fall’s elections.
CNN again (from last night):
Israel should consider tonight a win because the current US assessment is that Iran’s attacks had been largely unsuccessful and demonstrated Israel’s superior military capability, President Joe Biden told Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in their phone call, a senior administration official told CNN.
The US’s assessment tonight was that almost all of the drones and missiles – including more than 100 ballistic missiles — launched by Iran had been knocked out of the sky. No cruise missile made impact, the official said, and nothing of “value” was hit.
Israel war cabinet is meeting now
2 hardline Israeli ministers urge firm response to Iran attack
Just what your nerves needed
World leaders are expressing concerns that Iran’s wave of missile and drone attacks against Israel could further destabilize the Middle East. Allies including the United States, Germany, France and Britain reaffirmed their support for Israel in the wake of Tehran’s first full-scale military assault.
In a statement condemning the attacks, President Biden said that U.S. support for Israeli security was “ironclad” and that he would convene Group of Seven leaders Sunday to coordinate a response.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called the attack “unjustifiable and highly irresponsible,” adding that Iran’s actions risked “further escalation in the region.” Scholz said Germany stands by Israel and would be holding talks with its allies.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said Iran’s attack was “reckless” and risked “inflaming tensions” in the region. “Iran has once again demonstrated that it is intent on sowing chaos in its own backyard,” Sunak said, adding that Britain would continue to “stand up for Israel’s security.”
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that Canada “unequivocally condemns” Iran’s attack against Israel and that the strikes highlighted the Iranian regime’s “disregard for peace and stability in the region.” Trudeau said Canada supports Israel’s right to defend itself.
French President Emmanuel Macron condemned the “unprecedented attack,” saying it “threatens to destabilize the region.” Macron expressed solidarity with the Israeli people and reiterated France’s commitment to the security of Israel. “France is working on de-escalation with its partners and calls for restraint,” he said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky admonished Iran on social media, writing that Ukrainians are all too familiar with the sound of Iranian drones because Russia uses the same type in its attacks against Ukraine. Zelensky also called on Congress to “make the necessary decisions to strengthen America’s allies at this critical time.”
Russia’s Foreign Ministry urged all parties to “exercise restraint” and criticized Western members of the U.N. Security Council for failing to “adequately respond” to Israel’s strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 1, which Russia condemned at the time. The statement also highlighted Iran’s claim that Saturday’s strike followed a framework of self-defense in response to the Damascus attack. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian-Iranian relations have deepened, with Tehran providing Moscow with thousands of Shahed drones for its attacks on Ukraine.
China expressed concern over the “current escalation,” calling on “relevant parties” to exercise calm and restraint. “The conflict must end now,” a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, according to the Global Times, a state-backed newspaper.
Saudi Arabia expressed “deep concern,” with its Foreign Ministry saying the military escalation “would have grave consequences if it expands.” The kingdom said it was urging “all parties to exercise maximum restraint and to protect the region and its people from the dangers of war.”
Qatar’s Foreign Ministry urged all parties to “exercise maximum restraint,” calling on “the international community to take urgent action to defuse tension and reduce escalation in the region.”
This is all developing in real time with little room for analysis (esp. by me), but there’s this (NBC News):
Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel marks a significant moment in history, even if it was intended to be largely symbolic, according to an analyst with geopolitical risk advisory firm Eurasia Group.
“Make no mistake: even if #Iran intended this to be a telegraphed and (it would seem) largely symbolic show of force to restore deterrence, it has attacked Israel with missiles and drones for the first time,” tweeted Gregory Brew, an Iran analyst.
“Alea iacta est, folks,” he added, using a Latin term for “the die is cast.”
Brew wrote that he “did not anticipate Iran would use its own missiles, from within its own territory, against Israel directly.”
“A major milestone,” Brew tweeted.
Needed that like a hole in the head.
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