Iraq, the Middle East and Change: No Dominoes

A classified State Department report expresses doubt that installing a new regime in Iraq will foster the spread of democracy in the Middle East, a claim President Bush has made in trying to build support for a war, according to intelligence officials familiar with the document.

The report exposes significant divisions within the Bush administration over the so-called democratic domino theory, one of the arguments that underpins the case for invading Iraq.

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The domino theory also is used by the administration as a counterargument to critics in Congress and elsewhere who have expressed concern that invading Iraq will inflame the Muslim world and fuel terrorist activity against the United States.

But the theory is disputed by many Middle East experts and is viewed with skepticism by analysts at the CIA and the State Department, intelligence officials said.

Critics say even establishing a democratic government in Iraq will be extremely difficult. Iraq is made up of ethnic groups deeply hostile to one another. Ever since its inception in 1932, the country has known little but bloody coups and brutal dictators.

Even so, it is seen by some as holding more democratic potential — because of its wealth and educated population — than many of its neighbors.

By some estimates, 65 million adults in the Middle East can’t read or write, and 14 million are unemployed, with an exploding, poorly educated youth population.

Given such trends, “we’ll be lucky to have strong central governments [in the Middle East], let alone democracy,” said one intelligence official with extensive experience in the region.

The official stressed that no one in intelligence or diplomatic circles opposes the idea of trying to install a democratic government in Iraq.

“It couldn’t hurt,” the official said. “But to sell [the war] on the basis that this is going to cause 1,000 flowers to bloom is naive.”

Some officials said the classified document reflects views that are widely held in the State Department and CIA but that those holding such views have been muzzled in an administration eager to downplay the costs and risks of war.

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Middle East experts said there are other factors working against democratic reform, including a culture that values community and to some extent conformity over individual rights.

“I don’t accept the view that the fall of Saddam Hussein is going to prompt quick or even discernible movement toward democratization of the Arab states,” said Philip C. Wilcox, director of the Foundation for Middle East Peace and a former top State Department official. “Those countries are held back not by the presence of vicious authoritarian regimes in Baghdad but by a lot of other reasons.”

Bush has responded to such assessments by assailing the “soft bigotry of low expectations.”

Wow. Move over George Kennan. I thought he said that the new regime would be reformers with results, leaders who knew how to lead. He said he had some stong talks with the Iraqi exiles and felt they would make fabulous leaders. He believes they can be united not divided and he promises to smoke out Saddam and keep him on the run. I never heard him say that not believing in fairy tales was the soft bigotry of low expectations though.

And then, there’s the deft handling of US Russian relations.

Oh Dmitri…

Washington had calculated that Putin, a pragmatist, valued Russia’s relationship with the United States above all other foreign policy issues. U.S. officials also thought that Moscow’s interests in the Iraqi oil business and its desire to see Iraq repay $8 billion of debt would be enough to ensure Russian compliance.

There have been some veiled threats, however, notably from a senior Bush administration official in Moscow recently who warned Russia of the economic costs of blocking U.S. objectives.

“What we have said is that if you’re concerned with recouping your $8 billion in debts and if you’re interested in economic opportunities in liberated Iraq, it would be helpful if you were part of the prevailing coalition,” that official said at a background briefing for reporters last month.

“The Americans failed to understand that in order to make Putin change his position on Iraq, it was necessary to offer and actually give him something,” said one Moscow analyst, Viktor A. Kremenyuk of the USA-Canada Institute. “In fact, the Americans have done nothing real to attract Russia and win it over to their side.”

These guys are so gooood.

That official, by the way, was likely our suave and debonair Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security — John “there is no such thing as the UN” Bolton. He’s the Zelig of diplomatic screw-ups.