Gearing Up

Amanda Marcotte and quite a few others are upset that NARAL pulled their ad. But I think the ad did what it was intended to do. They were only running it in a couple of states, remember. It was designed to cause controversy. And it succeeded. Yesterday the story was on the front page of the NY Times.

They used the swift boat model. Oh yes, all the congoscenti are clutching their pearls and the anti-choice groups are running their own ads and everybody’s in a tizzy. But just as the swift boat ads were targeting veterans and military types who were possibly lulled into complacency by Kerry’s war record, NARAL is targeting pro-choice women who may not yet realize how high the stakes have suddenly become. They are trying to wake them up to the threat and sometimes it takes a firestorm to do that. The details don’t matter, it’s the headline and the image.

I don’t know if the tactic succeeded, but I don’t believe it hurt the greater cause any, despite the handwringing about its “intemperence.” (Where would we be if liberal pundits couldn’t call for the smelling salts everytime some liberals forget their manners.) They could put on a tea party and have everyone wear white gloves and the right would still say the feminazis are on the march.

NARAL is playing a rough game and they are willing to take some heat to do it. They give cover to pro-choicers in the Senate who feel they must pretend to be above such nastiness to do their solemn duty (although why the other pro-coice groups piled on is beyond me.) They’ll now put out a more “temperate” ad that will not inspire nearly the same level of vitriol — and the other side is running ads about ads, always a good thing. I think it was a pretty good play.

Let’s face some ugly facts. Roberts is almost assuredly going to be confirmed. I wish I had some hope that we could stop him — hell, I wish we could stop all of them. Not that we shouldn’t try, but unless something really shocking is revealed I just don’t see it. There is no way that the gang of 14 is going to go along with a filibuster on this guy and it will take pictures of him dressed in his Peppermint Patty costume with Karl Rove naked on a dog leash to get enough Republican defectors. (That would probably lock in their support, actually)

No, the point here is to punch hard for Rehnquist’s seat — the one that will swing the court definitively. I know we don’t want to have to face this, but the fact is that when we “lost” last November it always meant that a guy like Roberts, right wing hit man that he is, would probably be the best we could hope for. Which is nothing.

For the pro-choice advocates, the stakes could not be higher. If Roe vs Wade is overturned, they are looking at spending years — decades — fighting tooth and nail in places like Alabama, Missouri, Utah and Mississippi to try to win back for women the rights they have had for the last 30 years.

I know that some people think that’s a radical and unlikely outcome, and I can’t figure out why. It is quite clear that a fairly large number of states are going to make abortion illegal and very quickly too. While some Democrats blithely discuss whether it wouldn’t really “be better” if the states handled abortion and allowed the local people to decide such a thing (never mind that the woman who needs an abortion and can’t just jump on a plane to California will just have to take one for the team) for pro-choice advocates it means that they are going to have to ramp up their advocacy to unprecedented levels, hire huge staffs to begin the legal challenges and defenses that are going to be required in probably at least 25 legislatures and courts.

They are rallying their troops in hopes that they will be able to stop that horrid eventuality, but if they can’t they are going to need lots and lots of help and they know it. And all the while the constitutional right to privacy that undergirds the entire panoply of reproductive freedom issues is going to remain under assault.

I would suggest that any young lawyers out there who are sympathtic with this cause study up on the history of abortion law in your state and begin to think about strategies. It’s highly unlikely that Roe vs Wade is going to stand. No matter how much people believe that keeping it legal is a masterful Rovian strategy to keep the rubes hungry, they are going to have to deliver someday. They will do it by throwing it to the states. The rubes will then be more than thrilled to keep fighting for the fetus there.

Update: I just realized that none other than Bob Novak, who must be back on his meds (or I need to go on some) more or less agrees with me that this isn’t really about the Roberts nomination and that NARAL is playing a longer game.

The current hard count for Roberts is 60 senators. That would be more than enough to confirm him and barely enough to end a filibuster. But it is not enough to further the grand strategy for a conservative court. At least 70 votes for confirmation may be needed to make it comfortable for President Bush to name somebody at least as conservative as Roberts to the next vacancy, which soon may be in the offing.

The 30-second television ad aired nationally by NARAL Pro-Choice America this week claimed that Roberts as a young Justice Department lawyer supported bombing of abortion clinics. In fact, he worked on a brief intended to protect peaceful picketing. NARAL’s approach was not meant to sway the Senate but to pick off nervous Democrats and perhaps a Republican or two, keeping Roberts as close to 60 votes as possible. The president and his closest advisers then would have to ask themselves: If a nominee as squeaky clean as John Roberts cannot do better than this, can we risk nominating another conservative for the next vacancy?

For those of you playing at home, if Novakula is right we have at least 14 5 Democrats who are going to vote for Roberts. I say “at least” because it’s theoretically possible that a Republican or two (or Jeffords) might not. There will be no filibuster.

Novak is probably right that in that case, barring a shocker, this is all about keeping the vote low enough that Bush doesn’t think he can nominate Randell Terry next time. The best we can hope for is to play at the very margins. Depressing.

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