A Rout Vs. A Rogue President

by tristero

Riffing on Digby’s post earlier, I agree that Bush et al are too sanguine. And it’s very spooky. But rather than speculate on why they are so apparently clueless about reality (yet again), let’s speculate on something else. And if I’m shown wrong, I’m wrong (and I’ll say so). But I don’t think it’s frivolous to explore the possible implications of what the November vote could bring. It might help us better deal with it and understand the potential and limitations.

Ok, let’s first speculate that it really will be a rout. I, like you, will thank God, Thor, Zeus, and the Flying Spaghetti Monster that it happened. And like you, I’ll give myself a little pat on the back for voting for Democrats and helping make it happen.* But what are the first things the Republicans are gonna do the day after?

That’s right, goopers gonna demand recounts of as many races as they dare to. Lets not forget that many of the national races are major-league gerrymandered. The Republicans will scream something that boils down to, “Hey! No fair! We *#&*@$ rigged these races within an inch of our lives. We made sure those districts would be slamdunk GOP wins. Democrats simply had to be cheating!”

And so there will be recount demands. Lots. And here’s the kicker: Some of those recounts could take a very long time. A very long time, indeed. And cost a lot more money than the Democratic party has. (BTW, a question for legal people out there: Can GOP incumbents be stopped from casting their votes if their seat is up for dispute, the vote is being recounted, and a new term has started?)

Okay, but let’s put the concern about recounts aside. Let’s speculate that regardless of election disputes, a newly Democratic Congress is finally seated. Now what? Well, William Greider sez we should “insinuate” ourselves as “friendly critics” and push progressive, meaning liberal, ideas. And he rounds up some delicious sounding promises if the Dems win the House, such as investigations into waste and constitutionality. I agree (but geez, Bill, “insinuate?” couldn’t you have picked a better word? ) and I promise to help push.

But while we’re trying to bring some commonsense back to national politics, let’s try to anticipate what might plausibly happen. I think it’s a safe bet that a Democratic House that starts genuine investigations will be charged with revenge, payback and fomenting destructive vendettas “during wartime!” by everyone on the right and the mainstream media will let them. And, btw, you haven’t seen hysterical yet from the right. It will be ugly: Remember the “White Collar Riot” in Palm Beach, 2000? But all in all, that doesn’t concern me too much. Those kinds of charges and fights are par for the course, even if they become exceptionally vitriolic this time around.

No. Here’s what concerns me. What if Congress passes laws Bush don’t like?

Well, he may just go along with some of them. And for some he will surely release a signing statement or just quietly ignore them. But for certain laws that he thinks his actively opposing them will play well to other rightwing extremists – say bills that roll back the “Patriot” Act to something more befitting a free society – I think the odds are good that Bush may actually publicly refuse to follow them, citing the “overriding principle of the unitary executive.”

In short, Bush will say, “Try ‘n make me.” And the amen choir at Fox and elsewhere will stand up for him, deploring a fascist Democrat [sic] Congress trying to Subvert the will of the People.

Actually, I don’t think this dramatic – no, melodramatic – scenario is likely for a very simple reason. Congress wouldn’t dare to substantively repeal the “Patriot” Act or the Torture Act or anything else that central to Bushism. I believe that Bush will, as he has done since the beginning, continue to play chicken with the US Constitution, daring Congress to force the constitutional crisis he’s created, which has been going on since before he took office, into a full-blown public meltdown. And I believe, just as they did with the filibuster, that Congress will back down to prevent a public meltdown from happening. Congress, either Dem-controlled or not, will prefer to avoid a very frightening confrontation with a rogue presidency – that could lead who knows where – in the hopes that Bush’s insane challenge to the very structure of the US government simply will end when Bush leaves office in 2009.**

I’m not saying I like this or that I think it’s a good (or bad) idea. All I’m suggesting is that even if there is a rout, don’t expect much. With Bush in office, the serious danger to the country’s kind of government persists. He will do whatever he wants to do. The Congress, like it or not, will be very anxious to do nothing to exacerbate the crisis, hoping to wait him out.

Yes, indeed, a Democratic House/Congress may raise quite a stink over Bush’s desire for the big Iran Bang Bang he’s planning. But even so, Congress will do all it can not to confront Bush but avoid the confrontation.

That’s right: Even a Democratically controlled Congress may very well go along with Bush’s war plans in order to avoid a catastrophic showdown over who really has the true power in America these days.*** It may mean that the confrontation over Bush/Iran could devolve into an open clash between Bush and very reluctant generals, with Congress stuck, badly, in the middle. (And I can clearly see the headlines on Fox declaring a ” military coup d ‘etat” and “mutiny.”) But frankly, I doubt it. I suspect that there will be no major dramatic confrontations and, barring the totally unforeseen, that Bush could get away with starting another war. Possibly even a nuclear war – and then watch the fur fly as the world condemns the US and Congress tries to figure out what to do while the bodies of radiated children are displayed on television and Bush demands “loyalty in a time of active war.”

Don’t get me wrong. A Democratic Congress is a Very Good Thing and we should all be working to see that it happens. But we should be realistic about how much even a Democratic Congress will feel it can do, given a president who has the unchecked power, the corrupt will, and the truly perverse desire to be a cheap dictator instead of an American leader.

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*As for those of you who vote your conscience and vote for a Republican-funded third party candidate, may your music collection vanish in a puff of Green, except for the Yanni and Vangelis compilations your well-meaning and trying-to-be-hip aunt bought for you once and that you couldn’t bring yourself to touch, let alone, toss.

**Congress has no reason to doubt Bush will leave at the end of his term, nor do I: Bush is anxious to become Commissioner of Baseball, after all. That’s the job he’s really wanted all along.

*** Yes, I know the situation and his support is not Fall, 2002 even though Congress did cave in back then to avoid exactly such a showdown. However, I don’t think Bush cares about public opinion (or the rule of law). He does what he wants. He’s the decider, not the American people. He has the power and he will exercise it. And how, exactly, does a Congress stop a president who believes that he, not the Supreme Court, is the ultimate arbiter of all legislation? And “during wartime,” as he will surely claim? And if they succeed, what kind of potentially dangerous precedent does that set? I think Congress will try to avoid gettting into a position where those questions have to be answered.