Tribal Counsel

by digby

I stumbled across this interesting break-down of religious beliefs over on BeliefNet today, which seems to me to be significant, if true. BeliefNet has broken down the religious groupings in the country into 12 religious “tribes” each held together by a common worldview. It sounds about right to me, although I’m no expert. You can read their short descriptions of each tribe here.

Here’s what I find interesting. They break down the hardcore right into three groups, the Religious Right and the Heartland Culture Warriors, which make up about 25% of the population. These are the people who vote strongly on social issues. There is another 10% who are slightly more likely to vote GOP called the Moderate Evangelicals who are social conservatives, but they claim they vote more on economic issues. That’s makes 35%. The Republican base.

But what’s interesting is that all of the other groups are either social moderates or social liberals, a majority of whom are pro-choice. More importantly, of all these other tribes, the only ones who seem to feel strongly about social issues are the Democratic seculars — the largest and fastest growing among the three hardcore tribes that make up the Democratic base.

If this tribal breakdown is correct, the Democrats are far better off standing pat on the issue of abortion instead of embarking on another quixotic attempt to capture an elusive swing voter who doesn’t exist. The only people who seem to care enough to cast their vote on it are the hardcore base of both parties and they are unpersuadable. Virtually everyone else is pro-choice and they say they care about other issues far more. (This could be the reason why even George W. Bush still speaks in code on the issue rather than coming right out and saying that he’s anti-choice.)

I think the idea that Democrats absolutely must compromise (or “soften” their stance) on abortion rights is a fallacy created by the religio-political industrial complex to raise their profile and enhance their clout. It will get them nothing but hostility from their own hardcore base who are getting restive and angry at their party’s apparent willingness to (rhetorically, at least) sell-out an issue of principle. It certainly won’t move the hardcore base of the GOP and the alleged swings aren’t voting on it.

There is much more fertile ground on economic and foreign policy, which is where the trend toward Democrats is coming from. I hope they don’t keep fighting the last war.

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