On Christmas

by digby

Meteor Blades can’t forget. And neither should we.

It should be easier to forget Iraq right now, some pundits argue, because the violence has dwindled in the past few months. Indeed, only 16 Americans in uniform and one Briton have been killed so far this month. Violence against Iraqis is definitely down, too, although the specific numbers aren’t trustworthy. At the current rate, December 2007 could turn out to be the most peaceful month in Iraq since the invasion.

The Foxagandists and neo-imps argue that this is due to the surge and new counterinsurgency techniques, which is no doubt true as far as it goes. But the drop also comes from the Sunni alliance against al Qaeda in Iraq, from sectarian cleansing and from the effects of the walls of Baghdad.

Whether the reduced violence is a permanent state of affairs or just the relative calm before the next storm is anybody’s guess. “Iraq is moving in the direction of a failed state, with competing centers of power run by warlords and militias. The central government has no political control whatsoever beyond Baghdad, maybe not even beyond the Green Zone,” according to Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group.

Will the Sunni turn their attention back to the Americans and Iraqi security forces once they have stomped al Qaeda in Iraq? Will Moqtada al-Sadr’s truce continue to hold after he finishes his final exam to become an ayatollah? Will the Iraqi “national” government finally get it together?

Even if the occupation runs more or less along the same course as it is now, by next summer there will still be 130,000 Americans in uniform there, with who can be sure how many others working for firms like Blackwater Worldwide. The same number that were there in December 2006. At best, by this time next Christmas Eve, there will still be at least 100,000 American soldiers, marines, sailors and airmen in Iraq. Plus contractors and mercenaries. Still killing and dying and being maimed in a war of occupation that should never have begun in the first place. read on.

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