The Big Change

by digby

Whenever I get down about the Democrats’ prospects in the fall, which is rare, I try to remember that the Republicans are more unpopular than they’ve been in a generation and that the seismic forces that are driving this election are of such a magnitude that it’s hard to see how we can really lose it. But still, there’s that little voice whispering in my ear that Democrats have got a knack for screwing themselves even when there is major social and economic upheaval that should favor them. Are they going to do it again?

And then I read something like this piece that Matt Stoller wrotefor The Nation a few weeks back explaining how the Democrats are using the new technology to change the face of politics. And today, Ron Brownstein writes a similar article for the National Journal that makes me feel — truly — that it’s almost impossible for us lose this thing next fall:

In scope and sweep, tactics and scale, the marathon struggle between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton has triggered such a vast evolutionary leap in the way candidates pursue the presidency that it is likely to be remembered as the first true 21st-century campaign.

On virtually every front, the two candidates’ efforts dwarf those of all previous primary contenders—not to mention presumptive GOP nominee John McCain. It’s easy to miss the magnitude of the change amid the ferocity of the Democratic competition. But largely because of their success at organizing supporters through the Internet, Clinton and, especially, Obama are reaching new heights in raising money, recruiting volunteers, hiring staff, buying television ads, contacting voters, and generating turnout. They are producing changes in degree from prior primary campaigns so large that they amount to changes in kind.

It’s a perfect storm. The GOP is imploding and while their candidate is formidable, the zeitgeist has passed him by. After eight years of Republican rule, massive numbers of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track, the economy is in recession and we have an extremely unpopular Republican war. And the Democrats are using new technologies to raise massive sums of money and bring voters and activists into the system in huge numbers, efficiently dispatching them to campaign and get out the vote. Meanwhile, completely on their own, citizens are participating through blogs, youtubes and social networking sites completely outside the system. The right has nothing like this.

This election will not be a cakewalk — the Republicans have 25 years of internalized philosophy and some primitive prejudices to work with. But in 2008, after Bush, that just not going to be enough. The forces of change in this election run far deeper than the presidential campaigns.

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