Going Independent

by digby

Yesterday I wrote about the different ways the two candidates are trying to appeal to independent voters:

Barack with his appeal to post-partisan compromise and McCain with his straight-talking, macho maverick “I just do what I think is right” approach.

Today we see this:

The different paths John McCain and Barack Obama have taken to support expanded offshore drilling for oil demonstrate how each would govern as president, their supporters said Sunday.

McCain surrogates contended on the Sunday news programs that the Arizona Republican’s turn toward drilling, which he had once opposed, showed how McCain would respond decisively to a crisis. Obama’s supporters argued that his willingness to consider a bipartisan proposal including more drilling showed how the Illinois Democrat would pursue compromise to achieve results.

There you have it.

My experience says that bipartisan compromise means giving conservatives most of what they want and taking a pittance in return, after which they will stab you in the back anyway and spin the compromise to deny you any political rewards for your pragmatism. I don’t think we’ve quite come to the point in the political pendulum where they are willing to change that, but we’ll see. It obviously has some political value in the campaign for Obama, who has a unique set of frames to work within and against.

But I do agree that both candidates are making their runs on the basis of being non-ideological leaders. McCain makes the case that he will crack heads in both parties to get things done and Barack says he will negotiate and compromise to get things done. I think both of them are believable in those leadership roles. Which one the average Independent swing voter thinks is the most effective style and whether they believe it will get their desired results is unknown. I think there are plenty of independents who hate partisanship and just want it to go away — that’s one of the reasons they won’t affiliate with party politics. But they could, theoretically, pick either candidate to do that.

I suspect they will fall into their usual patterns and vote with the party for which they usually vote. I really doubt by the end of this thing that Barack is going to swing Bush voters or that McCain will swing Kerry voters. The campaign’s ugliness is going to take a toll and I think all but people under 25 will likely retreat to familiar ground, blaming the one they didn’t vote for for the dreaded “divisiveness.” I’m pinning my hopes on Democratic turnout, which we have every reason to continue to believe will be enormous. That should be enough.

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