There’s A Storm Brewin’

by dday

Well this could be just awful.

Energy companies on Wednesday braced for the worst storm to threaten the U.S. Gulf of Mexico oilpatch since 2005’s devastating hurricanes as Tropical Storm Gustav churned toward the heart of U.S. offshore production.

No company had reported output cuts as they began evacuating staff from offshore oil and natural gas platforms, but Shell Oil Co, which has the largest offshore operations, said it may begin shutting output as early as Thursday while it works to evacuate all of its 1,300 Gulf workers by Saturday.

Gustav is expected to morph into a powerful hurricane as it gains strength from the Gulf’s warm waters, and about 85 percent of U.S. offshore oil and gas production could be in its path.

By midday Wednesday, weather forecasters were saying the storm could, as did Katrina and Rita, become a catastrophic category 5 hurricane with winds over 155 mph (249 kph) as it crosses the Gulf, which provides a quarter of U.S. crude oil production and 15 percent of the nation’s natural gas output.

“We do believe Gustav is going to emerge into the Gulf as a major hurricane, category 3 or better,” said AccuWeather Inc Forecasting Director Ken Reeves. “It has a chance for a brief period to be a category 5.”

“Whether or not it can produce the same amount of damage as Katrina or Rita remains to be seen,” Reeves said.

In addition to devastating the Louisiana coast, including the city of New Orleans, Katrina and Rita shut 25 percent of U.S. oil and fuel production. Gulf energy companies needed months to restore operations close to their full capacity.

This was a business article so the focus was on the oil offshore (hey, I thought Republicans told us that not a drop of oil was spilled during Katrina?), but it’s already hitting Jamaica and could be on the way toward New Orleans. Word is it could hit on Day 1 of the RNC.

If anything the federal government is even more tattered and incompetent now than in 2005, if only because of a massive case of senioritis. It ought to be recalled where John McCain spent his birthday that year, on the very day that Katrina hit.

But for now, light a candle for the residents of the Gulf Coast.

Update: From digby.

Just a little reminder of what was happening five years ago today:

2AM CDT — KATRINA UPGRADED TO CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE [CNN] 7AM CDT — KATRINA UPGRADED TO CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE [CNN] MORNING — LOUISIANA NEWSPAPER SIGNALS LEVEES MAY GIVE: “Forecasters Fear Levees Won’t Hold Katrina”: “Forecasters feared Sunday afternoon that storm driven waters will lap over the New Orleans levees when monster Hurricane Katrina pushes past the Crescent City tomorrow.” [Lafayette Daily Advertiser] 9:30 AM CDT — MAYOR NAGIN ISSUES FIRST EVER MANDATORY EVACUATION OF NEW ORLEANS: “We’re facing the storm most of us have feared,” said Nagin. “This is going to be an unprecedented event.” [Times-Picayune] AFTERNOON — BUSH, BROWN, CHERTOFF WARNED OF LEVEE FAILURE BY NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DIRECTOR: Dr. Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center: “‘We were briefing them way before landfall. … It’s not like this was a surprise. We had in the advisories that the levee could be topped.’” [Times-Picayune; St. Petersburg Times] 4PM CDT — NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES SPECIAL HURRICANE WARNING: In the event of a category 4 or 5 hit, “Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks, perhaps longer. … At least one-half of well-constructed homes will have roof and wall failure. All gabled roofs will fail, leaving those homes severely damaged or destroyed. … Power outages will last for weeks. … Water shortages will make human suffering incredible by modern standards.” [National Weather Service] LATE PM — REPORTS OF WATER TOPPLING OVER LEVEE: “Waves crashed atop the exercise path on the Lake Pontchartrain levee in Kenner early Monday as Katrina churned closer.” [Times-Picayune] APPROXIMATELY 30,000 EVACUEES GATHER AT SUPERDOME WITH ROUGHLY 36 HOURS WORTH OF FOOD [Times-Picayune] LOUISIANA NATIONAL GUARD REQUESTS 700 BUSES FROM FEMA FOR EVACUATIONS: FEMA sends only 100 buses. [Boston Globe]