First Polling

by digby

Survey USA is out with their first poll on post speech Palin:

Palin Speech Moves Independents: Results of two nationwide polls conducted by SurveyUSA show Sarah Palin’s speech at the Republican National Convention on the evening of 09/03/08 has helped the McCain campaign.

24 hours ago, independent voters nationwide were split on whether Palin was an asset or a liability to McCain’s campaign. Today, by a 2:1 margin, independents say Palin is an asset. Overnight, the percentage calling the Alaska governor an asset to the campaign climbed 13 points; the percentage calling her a liability fell 17 points.
The numbers are similar among moderates, who 24 hours ago viewed Palin as a liability by an 11 point margin; today, Palin is seen as an asset by an 18 point margin.

Betting Line Changes: 24 hours ago, when asked if they would bet on Obama or McCain becoming president, Obama was a 16:15 favorite; today, it’s flipped, and McCain is favored by the same ratio.

Grading The Speech: Of those who watched Palin speak last night, 60% give the speech a grade of “A.” When those giving lower grades are factored in and a standard grade point average computed on a 4-point scale, Palin scores a “B,” overall. Among Republicans, she gets an “A-;” among Independents, a solid “B;” among Democrats, a “C.”

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1200 adults in two separate surveys, on 09/03/08 and 09/04/08. In each survey, those identifying themselves as registered voters were asked the questions which followed.

Did you hear Sarah Palin’s speech at the Republican National Convention last night?

75% Yes
24% No

What grade do you give her on the speech? An A, B, C, D, or an F?

Grade Point Average

60% A
11% B
11% C
9% D
8% F
0% Not Sure

On the whole, is Sarah Palin an asset to John McCain? A liability to McCain? Or, do you not know enough to say?

55% Asset
24% Liability
19% Don’t Know Enough
3% Not Sure

Does McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as a running mate reflect well on McCain? Reflect poorly on McCain? Or do you not know enough to say?

55% Reflects Well On McCain
30% Poorly On McCain
14% Dont’ Know Enough
1% Not Sure

On the whole, is Joe Biden an asset to Barack Obama? A liability to Obama? Or, do you not know enough to say?

50% Asset
27% Liability
22% Don’t Know Enough
1% Not Sure

Does Obama’s selection of Joe Biden as a running mate reflect well on Obama? Reflect poorly on Obama? Or do you not know enough to say?

48% Reflects Well On Obama
31% Poorly On Obama
20% Dont’ Know Enough
1% Not Sure

If you were placing a bet today, would you bet that Barack Obama will be elected president? Or, John McCain will be elected president?

45% Barack Obama
48% John McCain
7% Not Sure

Is the media rooting for Barack Obama? Rooting for John McCain? Or trying its best to be fair to both?

54% Barack Obama
8% John McCain
35% Being Fair To Both
4% Not Sure

I know that last is ludicrous, but the fact is that the “liberal media” critique has been around for decades and many people have completely internalized it.

It’s going to be a problem for Democrats going forward because it means the media will begin to bend over backward to be “fair — despite their nearly hysterical protestations today that they have always been scrupulously professional. They won’t even know they are doing it.

This is a snapshot poll and we don’t know what it all means. There is a lot of churning in the electorate with the two conventions right on top of one another, the two late VP picks, the hurricane etc. Next week will likely tell the real tale.

Update: Some interesting observations from MYDD on this, here and here. Especially this, regarding the media:

This presents two huge problems. First, McCain can basically wield whatever attacks he’d like, and not have to worry about the critique of the media. They are not seen as objective judges in the matter. Second, the only way that the media can change this public opinion is to go overboard the other way, by attacking Barack Obama with multiple feeding frenzies.

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