State Of The Race

by digby

Here’s the latest in my ongoing series of memos from an insider I call Deep Insight:

Under Bush and Cheney, oil and gas, drug companies, defense contractors, insurers and usurers control the e government of the United States, it does what they want. This is the predator state.
Jamie Galbraith, Professor
University of Texas

Professor Galbraith does not mince words, but there is plenty of evidence from the last eight years to support him. These interests have controlled federal regulatory policy and emptied the Treasury. Working hand-in-glove with their appointees in every part of the Executive Branch, they have turned the role of government upon itself. This not only helps their commercial interests but also denigrates the capacity and public esteem of the government. The ability of the public sector to build the social trust necessary to confront societal problems is undermined by the same people who want to “drown the government in the bathtub.” It is a win/win for them.

It remains to be seen how these interests react in the final two months of this campaign. With little chance that Republicans will win back the House or Senate, the Obama campaign must be prepared for these interests to spend heavily to save John McCain. Trade associations, new advocacy c4s, and 527s all allow them to advertise. A $30 or $40 million national or state-based advertising campaign would be a rounding error for these interests. Already done is a $3 million c4 ad campaign in Ohio and Michigan funded by a Texas billionaire associating Obama with SDS bomber Bill Ayers.

Karl Rove has signed on with a 527 named Freedom Watch. He has just been quoted as saying that he is trying to raise $100 million. Now he is an official “advisor” to McCain as well. Rove’s acolytes now run the McCain campaign so we shall see well-coordinated character assaults on Mr. Obama from inside and outside the McCain campaign. Whether ads are true or not, the mainstream media will duly cooperate by playing the ads explaining that they are a current “controversy.”

The McCain campaign itself has decided to run very highly produced ads featuring Paris Hilton and one other featuring a young white woman who says Barack has “dreamy eyes.” The subtext is clear. The overall strategy is to turn the facts of Obama’s life upside down. In this lie, Obama has led a sheltered and privileged life while McCain represents the gritty Horatio Alger story. Of course, in reality McCain is the son and grandson of Admirals and married to a woman worth a hundred million dollars. Rove’s comment that Obama is the “cool guy at the country club with the beautiful girl on his arm” needs no further exposition. Fear and resentment are the goals.

Ludicrously, David Broder stated that John McCain resorted to the low road because Obama would not do enough town halls with him. Obama is somewhat boxed in because if he draws attention to the GOP’s “race” strategy, he is accused of injecting the issue of race. This is a major crutch John McCain is using. In recent New York Times polling, 19% of white voters admitted thinking race relations in the US would be “worse” if Obama were elected. This line of “thinking” also shows up in focus groups. Twelve percent of the public thinks Obama is a Muslim. There are other heuristics that the GOP hopes low information voters will rely upon. As one indicator of the white working class vote, McCain led by 9 points prior to the Democratic convention in suburban MacComb County outside of Detroit. Obama has problems with white voters over 50 including married women.

With wages stagnant and affirmative action as the context, one GOP strategy will be clear. There will be a targeted appeal to white voters, implying that their economic misfortune is due to unfair advantage for minorities. It is a variation of the infamous Jesse Helms ad showing a pair of white hands crumbling a letter, captioned, “You deserved that promotion.” The Obama campaign had better be prepared for the next generation of ads in this vein.

In the words of one GOP strategist, part of the GOP appeal is to “old America.” This is the America of nostalgia associated with the 1950s. While many Americans would welcome the wage levels of the ‘50s and ‘60s, the rest of the decade can be mercifully forgotten. McCain will also continue to play the “patriot” card. In the vile words of Joe Lieberman, “McCain, not Obama, puts the country first.” Lieberman lied throughout his speech at the Republican convention. Democrats in the Senate really must do without him as soon as possible.

John McCain shook up the race with his VP choice. It appears a smart political move, aimed not at independent women, but to energize the religious right. She is more of a social conservative than George Bush. This will translate into volunteers walking the streets and handling the phone banks. Given Palin’s past performance in Alaska, the fossil and fuel industries and the NRA are also thrilled with her.

On a symbolic level, Palin will be marketed as the working mom of a conservative populist family, a combination of Annie Oakley and Working Girl. She will pretend to be a “maverick,” the image the Hollywood firm is trying to resurrect for McCain. She helps in the West and in the South. Obviously, the McCain campaign did not vet her properly. Once unfavorable news circulated through the Internet, the established media ran her through its gauntlet. She is quite unqualified to be President, so much for the McCain slogan, “Country First.”

The voters, of course, are screaming for policy change. When asked whether the current economic situation most resembles the ‘30s, ‘70s, or ‘90s, by a 10-point margin the public chooses the ‘30s. While objectively off, the perception is what matters. Encouraged by the weak dollar, the nation is exporting plenty of commodities like wheat, but not the manufactured goods necessary for broader based prosperity. Many areas of this country are really hurting and the situation is getting worse. Unemployment is at a 5-year high and the federal government just nationalized half the mortgage industry. Next up will be more banks and investment firms tumbling down.

The McCain campaign is running away from his GOP record with its advertising buy stating that the average voter is worse off than four years ago and then hilariously moves into how John McCain fights “big oil.” The McCain ads are completely misleading. The press is not going to correct the McCain campaign lies in these ads. As Duncan Black noted, repeating debunked lies is a feature – not a bug – in the GOP system.

The D.C. press will continue its kid glove treatment of McCain, in John Marshall’s words, “grading on a curve.” It is ludicrous to watch the GOP once again attack the media for asking some questions about Palin’s qualifications. The press has once again been cowed by the Republicans, and she can only be interviewed by handpicked press who show deference. I suppose like Charles Gibson. Cokie Roberts criticized Obama for vacationing in the home of his youth and visiting his grandmother. Bodysurfing in Hawaii instead of golfing at Myrtle Beach is apparently too exotic for Ms. Roberts. She is vying with the Post’s Sally Quinn as the social arbiter of what is acceptable to the Beltway elite.

In The Way of the World, Ron Suskind’s explosive new book on Iraq, he says that the US government bribed the former Iraq intelligence chief and relocated him to Jordan. Agents then produced a bogus memo from him to Saddam saying the intelligence chief had met with a 9/11 bomber. One might think this would deserve screaming headlines but the story was only given attention by Keith Oberman and Jon Stewart. The press now treats Bush as irrelevant. As part of this scenario, seeing George Bush in public before November will be a game of “Where’s Waldo?”

In his acceptance speech Obama developed a very useful overall line of attack against McCain. He needs to continue a clear critique of the current economic situation and also offer a forward-looking message about the next generation of jobs. Some of his advertising has been good in this vein but he has to attack Bush-McCain economics every day.
Obama also needs to continue right after McCain on his Bush like foreign policy. McCain certainly looks like he is itching for more combat, as one wag put it; he is President Sonny Corleone after 8 years of Fredo. He has turned Iraq into a story about “winning” and is now trying to turn the Russian/Georgia border war into an international revival of the Cold War.

It is very helpful that Obama’s August “rope a dope” is over. One cannot win a Presidential election playing defense or nice. There is little paid communication on the Presidential race from left of center organizations. This would have been useful if for no other reason than to keep George Bush and his failed policies front and center. The Obama campaign has the communication landscape to itself.

The Republicans have been winning the day-to-day “free” press war. Of course it helps if much of the press is your “base.” To date, the McCain campaign has had better though highly misleading ads. The Obama advertising does not yet reflect the quality of his candidacy. It looks and sounds like traditional political advertising.

McCain has outspent Obama in traditional battleground states like Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan, in some cases by large margins, such as by $1 million in Ohio. On the other hand, Obama has had to himself traditional GOP states like North Carolina, Virginia and North Dakota. Granted that McCain was forced to burn through his primary money ahead of the GOP convention. But one wonders why the Obama campaign was spending ad dollars in Georgia. At the end of the day when outside conservative groups are added in, Obama will likely not command that significant a financial advantage over the final two months.

The GOP is far better at employing surrogates. In a 24/7 news cycle, the Democrats need better attacks that make news. Of course some of the attacks are ridiculous as in the GOP “lipstick on a pig” smear. But it is the reality, the modern media as a clown show. It was a mistake of the Obama campaign to take Wes Clark out of the equation for stating the obvious about McCain’s military record. The Democrats do not have an excess of 4 star generals ready for appearance on TV. Joe Biden is fine as the Vice Presidential candidate, but he has to match the Republicans with defense of Barack Obama and attacks on McCain. He has already said John McCain is a friend, now it is time to go after their ticket and its priorities. He is not going to garner the type of coverage as Palin unless he is provocative.

The Obama field program will be unprecedented, but will only make the deciding difference if the fundamental framework of the election is for a referendum on failed Republican policy. The campaign still has an enthusiasm advantage that will result in more committed volunteers willing to walk precincts in their neighborhoods. But Republicans know how to turn out the conservative base, now more energized with Palin. On the other hand, this is the first election where the Democrats should have a technology advantage due to the superiority in digital communications like text messaging.

After both conventions, the race is now essentially tied in the polls. One interesting wild card in this election is the dwindling undecided vote. Is this a threshold election? Are these voters the persuadable ones who only focus on elections in October? As Obama establishes himself as a plausible President, will they break his way because of their underlying dissatisfaction with the direction of the country? This mirrors the scenario in 1980. Is there an element of prejudice present that voters will not reveal to a pollster? Or are pollsters consistently understating the turnout potential of young people and minorities who only use cell phones?

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