The Fox Effect
by digby
Without Huckabee in the field, Romney edges Palin and Gingrich, 20-19-18, with Paul at 12% and the others further back. In the absence of Palin, Huckabee tops Gingrich and Romney, 22-20-18. With neither Palin nor Huckabee making a bid, Gingrich and Romney tie at 24%, with Paul at 12%. Palin’s voters go more heavily to Gingrich than to Romney.
69% of these voters say they regularly watch Fox News. A lot of hay has been made about the “Fox primary” influencing the outcome, since Palin, Gingrich, and Huckabee all work for the network. In the field with all four frontrunners, those three are tied for the lead with Fox viewers at 17-18%, with Romney at 15%, but with non-Fox viewers, Romney leads with 21%, followed by Huckabee’s 19%, Palin’s 12%, Paul’s 10%, and Gingrich back at 8%. In the other permutations, Romney wins the non-Fox viewers even more overwhelmingly, but places third or fourth or, at best, second with Fox viewers.
According to the same poll Obama isn’t looking so good either (about 50/50 approval) he’s winning by virtue of this weak field.
Considering the GOP’s tradition of anointing their preferred candidate fairly early, I’d think this was quite odd if not for the fact that I suspect they aren’t entirely committed to winning this one. After all, the Big Money Boyz are getting what they want and the Democrats are being blamed for the fallout. Why mess with success? Let the base have one of their pets win the nomination because no matter what happens they will have their biases confirmed:
Do you think ACORN will steal the election for Barack Obama next year or not?
Think ACORN will steal the election 25% …………… Think they will not 43% ……………………………………. Not sure 31%
The fact that ACORN doesn’t exist isn’t really relevant. They have simply replaced the “N” word with the “A” word.
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