What Dean Baker Said
by digby
The NYT told readers this morning:
“Once this year’s budget battle is settled, Congress will move on to potentially bigger fights over whether to raise the national debt limit and how to rein in the costs of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.”
Wow, huge majorities oppose cuts to Social Security (Medicare also), but the only debate in Congress is over “how” to cut the program. So much for democracy in America.
This is a perfect example of reflexive conventional wisdom among the ruling elites. of course, social security will be cut. They don’t even question the assumption or try to present a he said/she said is so embedded in their thinking. And it explains this:
The vast majority of Americans see Social Security headed toward a crisis, and most think the system needs a major overhaul, a new poll suggests.Eighty-one percent of those surveyed for a Washington Post-ABC News poll released Thursday said they think that if no changes are made to Social Security, the program will be in trouble, while just 15 percent said the system will be fine as it is.The poll comes as some members of Congress have begun talking about reforming entitlement programs – not just Social Security, but also Medicare and Medicaid – as the only way to make a dent in the annual federal budget deficit and, ultimately, the national debt. While Republicans and Democrats have in the past suggested ways to cut the costs of entitlements, they’re generally unwilling to touch what has for decades been a third rail in American politics.While fear for the future of Social Security has grown in the last six years, Americans aren’t much warmer on whether or how to go about fixing it.
Actually the number hasn’t really grown. But because virtually everyone in the know routinely screams about it, about two thirds of the public assumes there must be something to it. It’s the old “where there’s smoke there’s fire” syndrome.
Of those who see the system as in crisis or on the verge of one, 66 percent said they think Social Security needs a major overhaul. In 2005, 67 percent said the same. Meanwhile, 32 percent said the system needs only minor changes, up a bit from 30 percent in 2005.
But luckily, they have not been sold on cuts because somewhere in the back of their minds perhaps they know there is something fishy about all this:
When it comes to specific ways to potentially fix Social Security, Americans aren’t much more willing to consider certain options now than they were in 2005.
At least they haven’t been duped into buying the assumption that cuts are not only necessary but inevitable. And as long as that remains true, there is hope. Politicians will remain cautious as long as there is a chance that they will be punished. Republicans know they have the reputation of being Scrooges and enemies of the program so they are very nervous about being blamed. And the Democrats know that even if they hold hands with Boehner and McConnell and jump off the cliff together the GOP will use it against them. Seniors are the Republicans’ only growing demographic.
Right now, the best option is stalemate and Obama and his so-called economic genius advisors are living in another universe if they think they can finesse it. It would be a political blunder of epic proportions for them to try to create a legacy issue out of this.
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