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Nine days left, by @DavidOAtkins

Nine days left

by David Atkins

Norm Ormstein, writing on how Boehner’s ineffective leadership combined with the Tea Party caucus in the House are threatening a government shutdown:

Here is the looming problem: The House has nine—count ’em—legislative days in September to complete action on the appropriations bills that make up most of the government we see, and to try to reconcile their bills with the Senate, which has to act on the same 12 bills. The chances of that happening before Oct. 1? Zero. But even if the House and Senate passed all the appropriations bills, chances are close to zero that they could compromise on them—the gulf between the chambers is greater than ever, since the Boehner-“led” House tripled down on the tough sequester cuts for domestic programs (it cut deeper to meet the Ryan plan to balance the budget in 10 years, and it cut even deeper again to shift more money to defense than the sequester provides).

So, even if Boehner can bypass hard-liners’ demands that the administration capitulate on Obamacare to keep the government running, he will have to find a way to spend far more on domestic programs than his party wants via a compromised continuing resolution, or all or part of the government will shut down. More than likely, we will see a short-term extension on Oct. 1, for two weeks or a month. But by Nov. 1, we will have a full-scale confrontation—and one that may coincide with the debt ceiling being reached.

By encouraging the extremists through his rhetoric, and by not looking to compromise spending at all in the House process, Boehner has bought some time and averted some criticism and any chance of a revolt. But that also means that if he endorses a compromise that will fund the Affordable Care Act, move spending levels back at least to the sequester numbers, and extend the debt limit without preconditions, a sizable share of his caucus will go ballistic. Can he do that before we face a shutdown for days, weeks, or months? Can he do it before we actually breach the debt ceiling and suffer the consequences of the destruction of American economic integrity? Will the passive-aggressive approach work this time? I don’t have the answers. But I can say I am not sanguine that we will survive the fall without a major upheaval, in our economy and in Congress.

Which in turn means that the GOP will likely use this as their last hurrah to take down their white whale, Obamacare. Greg Sargent explains:

Republican leaders continue to leave open the possibility that there will be a government-shutdown confrontation to force the defunding of Obamacare. As I noted here yesterday, in so doing, they are in effect misleading the base by leaving impressions that this still could happen, when — for substantive and political reasons alike — it isn’t going to happen….

By holding countless repeal votes, and by continuing to insist Republicans will continue targeting the law for elimination, Boehner and other GOP leaders are only keeping alive the hope that Obamacare will be destroyed before it becomes part of the American landscape. A handful of Republican Senators are trying to talk some sense into their colleagues before it’s too late, arguing that staging an Obamacare-defunding shutdown is deeply misguided and dangerous. But it’s anyone’s guess who will prevail.

We keep reading that GOP leaders have been caught off guard by the depth and ferocity of the conservative commitment to this defunding showdown. As Politico put it the other day: “Republican leaders are growing concerned by the fervor with which some members are demanding that Boehner defund the health care law as part of the government funding talks.”

But really, why are they surprised? They’ve been feeding the repeal monster for literally years now. Even if a government shutdown does happen, of course, Obamacare won’t be defunded. But plenty of other damage will be done in the process. If GOP leaders can’t control this monster, it’s on them.

The convergent dynamics at work here may lead this fall’s debt ceiling fight to be the ugliest thing in government since the Gingrich shutdown.

It would be nice if we could count on a sterner negotiating partner in the White House, and a press more willing to call out fault even when it only falls on one side of the aisle. But that’s wishful thinking, I know.

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