Look who’s tanking
by digby
The Aug. 6 debate marked the beginning of a new and more volatile phase of the contest: a wave of boomlets. The candidates who can surge — and stay at the top — could define the race. It represents a big test for the candidates who led the polls for much of the first half of the year, Jeb Bush and Scott Walker. Already, it’s one Mr. Walker is struggling to pass.
Carly Fiorina has made the largest leap in national polls, and Marco Rubio, Ben Carson and Ted Cruz appear to have made gains as well. But where the story really matters is in Iowa and New Hampshire, and in the so-called invisible primary for elite support. These three contests nearly amount to separate campaigns, with Iowa and New Hampshire something like two brackets in a tournament, and with the invisible primary bestowing the resources and credibility that help candidates reach the finals.
Mr. Bush and Mr. Walker appear to have lost ground in all of them.
I can’t tell the future and there’s plenty of time for both to recover. But I will say this: I’ve been writing for many months that both of these guys, beloved by the beltway press and all the political pundits as exceptional political talents and shoo-ins, are tremendously over-rated. (You can look it up.) They just aren’t that great.
One hasn’t been in politics since his failure of a brother was busy destroying Iraq and the other’s main claim to fame is that he survived a recall election two years into his first term.
These guys simply are not the best talent in the busload of candidates they have out there. I have also written from the beginning that Mr Everybody’s Second Choice, Rubio, looked the best on paper to run in the general and was becoming the billionaire’s “it-boy.”
As I said, this is waaaaay to early to be able to even see the outlines of how it’s going to go. Trump is the big pile of offal in the middle of the tiramisu so who knows what’s going to happen? But I, for one, am not surprised that neither Walker or Bush are catching fire anywhere. And I think Rubio’s still positioned to be the GOP’s best anti-Hillary. Stay tuned …
.