Month: July 2016

Well, that was bracing, wasn’t it?
by Tom Sullivan

Nothing like nearly 90 minutes of red-faced anger to build confidence in a confidence man who has no idea what he’s doing and no experience doing it. But like the American tourist who acts as though some foreigner will understand English if he simply raises his voice, Donald Trump is at least loud. Give him that.

Trump’s acceptance of the Republican nomination for president last night in Cleveland ran long, as Trump speeches tend to. It was an unsettling speech by an unsettled man. Apocalyptic, really. Pro tip: When telling a Republican audience how much the country you love sucks, make sure to tell them how exceptionally it sucks. Trump did. He said, “This is the legacy of Hillary Clinton: death, destruction, terrorism and weakness.” Yes, weakness, because flaccid, limp, and spent are a little too blunt even for Trump.

Watching felt like being inside a familiar movie:

Tonight, I give you my most solemn vow: that justice will be swift, it will be righteous, and it will be without mercy.
— Chancellor Adam Sutler from V for Vendetta

The Washington Post dubbed the speech “Donald Trump’s vision of doom and despair in America.” The Chicago Tribune described it as “A dark vision based on specious stats.” Not that the truth matters to Trump’s followers.

Stephen Colbert’s blustery alter ego observed recently, “Truthiness has to feel true, but Trumpiness doesn’t even have to do that … Truthiness was from the gut. Trumpiness clearly comes from much further down the gastgrointestinal tract.” As late as Donald Trump spoke last night (EDT), there isn’t time before going to work designing factories where Americans get jobs making stuff to get that far down into Trump’s bowels of darkness. Thankfully, the Trumpiness checkers are all over that like, well, you know.

Here is a sampling:

Washington Post:

“The number of police officers killed in the line of duty has risen by almost 50 percent compared to this point last year.”

This is wrong.

The number of law enforcement officers killed on the job has increased 8 percent compared to this point in 2015. He may be referring to the total number of officers killed in shootings, which has increased 78 percent. This includes the recent shootings in Dallas and Baton Rouge.

The overall number of police deaths has decreased in the past two decades. For the past 10 to 15 years, traffic-related incidents (including criminal pursuit and instances where officers are intentionally struck by offenders) have been the leading cause of death among police officers.

NBC News:

CLAIM: Hillary Clinton “is a world class liar”

The facts: According to PolitiFact, 59% of Trump’s checked claims have been deemed false or “Pants on Fire” false, versus 12% for Clinton.

AP:

TRUMP: “After four years of Hillary Clinton, what do we have? ISIS has spread across the region, and the entire world. Libya is in ruins, and our ambassador and his staff were left helpless to die at the hands of savage killers. Egypt was turned over to the radical Muslim Brotherhood, forcing the military to retake control. Iraq is in chaos. Iran is on the path to nuclear weapons. Syria is engulfed in a civil war and a refugee crisis now threatens the West. … This is the legacy of Hillary Clinton: death, destruction, terrorism and weakness.”

THE FACTS: It’s an exaggeration to suggest Clinton, or any secretary of state, is to blame for the widespread instability and violence across the Middle East.

Clinton worked to impose sanctions that helped coax Tehran to a nuclear deal with the U.S. and other world powers last year, a deal in which Iran rolled back its nuclear program to get relief from sanctions that were choking its economy.

She did not start the war in Libya, but supported a NATO intervention well after violence broke out between rebels and the forces of dictator Moammar Gadhafi. The country slid into chaos after Gadhafi was ousted and killed in 2011, leaving it split between competing governments.

Clinton had no role in military decisions made during the 2012 attack on the U.S. diplomatic post in Benghazi, Libya, that killed U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans. Republicans’ claim that high-level officials in Washington issued a “stand-down” order delaying a military rescue in Benghazi has been widely debunked.

Vox:

Trump says: “58 percent of African-American youth are not employed.”

In fact: CNN’s Tami Luhby looked into this claim and found that the 58 percent figure was extrapolated from the fact that roughly 42 percent of black Americans ages 16 to 24 were employed as of earlier this year. That’s an erroneous way to calculate; many of those people aren’t unemployed but are simply in school or otherwise not looking for work. It’s technically true to say they’re “not employed,” but that gives a misleading impression that they’re out of work and struggling. —Dylan Matthews

Ruling: Misleading

Chicago Tribune:

“Forty-three million Americans are on food stamps.”

Trump’s point is that America’s economy has suffered under the Obama administration. But he fails to mention that this is the lowest number of people receiving food stamps since the program reached its peak in 2013, a sign that the economy is finally improving enough to help the desperately poor families who depend on it.

New York Times:

• “The number of new illegal immigrant families who have crossed the border so far this year already exceeds the entire total from 2015.”

Fact Check: This is true, according to reports from the Border Patrol, which said that more than 51,000 families have been apprehended on the border in the first nine months of the fiscal year, compared to about 40,000 last fiscal year. But that is still less than 2014, when a surge of families across the border caused a political stir.

There is much more. But if you need a palate cleanser after last night, here’s Stephen Colbert reprising his famous blowhard character. Trump outdoes him, but then Trump isn’t playing at being a demagogue. Trump is the real deal:

Murdoch Replacing Ailes at Fox Lets Him Hide, Settle and Seal Lawsuits

By Spocko

The temporary replacement of Roger Ailes by Rupert Murdoch as CEO and Chairman of Fox News is designed to calm shareholders and viewers, but it is also a strategy to shut down exposing information from the Gretchen Carlson sexual harrassment lawsuit and any other lawsuits that might spring up.

News Corporation International has a history of covering up internal dirty dealings in the UK. And the way they went about it there is very similar to what we are seeing now here.

First they hired an outside law firm, Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP, to investigate the allegations. When non-lawyers like me hear a company is hiring a law firm for an internal investigation we might think, “Well, good for them, maybe they will weed out all the bad apples!”

But that is not really what those firms are hired for. The are usually hired to manage or head off future lawsuits. Their job is to figure out if anyone is lying about what happened, and if not, then it becomes a CYA “How can we minimize the liability?” issue.

During the hacking scandle News International hired a law firm, Harbottle and Lewis, to do an internal investigation at News of the World regarding the practice of paying for hacks of phones and computers of celebrities, politicians and royalty. I read about this in a great book called Dial M for Murdoch. I hosted a Book Salon at FireDogLake with one of the authors, Martin Hickman.

It turns out that the law firm didn’t actually do a thorough investigation on the hacking, they just looked at one person. During that investigation that person referred to many others who either knew about or participated in the hacking. This person was later set up by News International as the scapegoat.

A version of the email was edited by News International before it was turned over to regulators to make it appear that there was only one person, the scapegoat, who was using services for hacking phones and computers.

Another one bails

by digby

Daniel Pipes:

The Republican Party nominated Donald Trump as its candidate for president of the United States – and I responded by ending my 44-year GOP membership.

Here’s why I bailed, quit, and jumped ship:

First, Trump’s boorish, selfish, puerile, and repulsive character, combined with his prideful ignorance, his off-the-cuff policy making, and his neo-fascistic tendencies make him the most divisive and scary of any serious presidential candidate in American history. He is precisely “the man the founders feared,” in Peter Wehner’s memorable phrase. I want to be no part of this.

Second, his flip-flopping on the issues (“everything is negotiable”) means that, as president, he has the mandate to do any damn thing he wants. This unprecedented and terrifying prospect could mean suing unfriendly reporters or bulldozing a recalcitrant Congress. It could also mean martial law. Count me out.

Third, with honorable exceptions, I wish to distance myself from a Republican Party establishment that made its peace with Trump to the point that it unfairly repressed elements at the national convention in Cleveland that still tried to resist his nomination. Yes, politicians and donors must focus on immediate issues (Supreme Court justice appointments) but party leaders like GOP committee chairman Reince Priebus, House Speaker Paul Ryan, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell wrongly acquiesced to Trump. As columnist Michael Gerson wryly notes, Trump “attacked the Republican establishment as low-energy, cowering weaklings. Now Republican leaders are lining up to surrender to him – like low-energy, cowering weaklings.”

Fourth, the conservative movement, to which I belong, has developed since the 1950s into a major intellectual force. It did so by building on several key ideas (limited government, a moral order, and a foreign policy reflecting American interests and values). But the cultural abyss and constitutional nightmare of a Trump presidency will likely destroy this delicate creation. Ironically, although a Hillary Clinton presidency threatens bad Supreme Court justices, it would leave the conservative movement intact.

Finally, Trump is “an ignorant, amoral, dishonest and manipulative, misogynistic, philandering, hyper-litigious, isolationist, protectionist blowhard” in the words of Republican donor Michael K. Vlock. That charming list of qualities means supporting Trump translates into never again being able to criticize a Democrat on the basis of character. Or, in personal terms: How can one look at oneself in the mirror?

And so, with Trump’s formal nomination, I bailed.

For the Republican Party to recover its soul, Trump needs to be thumped in November. Purged of his influence, the party of Lincoln and Reagan can rebuild.

In the meantime, I shall support other Republican candidates, notably Pennsylvania’s excellent Sen. Pat Toomey. As for president? Either the libertarian Gary Johnson, a write-in candidate, or no one at all.

Daniel Pipes has served in five presidential administrations

Anticipating the pivot (again)

by digby

Paul Waldman makes an important request of the news media in advance of Trumps speech tonight that will undoubtedly fall on deaf ears:

I beseech everyone, particularly my colleagues in the media: Can we please not grade Trump on a curve?

If there’s something he does or says that’s worthy of praise — a truly compelling new argument for his candidacy, a rhetorical flourish that brings a tear to the eye of every viewer, a newfound eloquence — then by all means give it the tribute it deserves. But let’s not forget that simply reading a speech off a teleprompter is not in and of itself a praiseworthy accomplishment.

It’s a little hard to know what in particular to expect from Trump’s address, because unlike many presidential candidates, he didn’t have a standard stump speech that he delivered with only minor variations time and again on the campaign trail. Instead, Trump would get up before crowds and free-associate, rambling on about whatever popped into his mind, though a big chunk of every speech was taken up with reciting his terrific poll numbers and his fantastic results in previous primaries, lest anyone forget how great he was doing and how much everyone loved him. While there were often exciting moments — telling supporters to beat up a protester, mocking a disabled reporter, tossing out his latest bit of xenophobic fear-mongering — those covering the events regularly reported how boring the speeches were; at about the 45-minute mark, attendees who had waited on line for hours to get in often started drifting away.

In part because his events generally showcase a bizarre combination of tedium and brownshirt rally, on the few occasions where Trump has delivered a prepared speech, pundits acted as though he were an eight-year-old giving his first clarinet recital. It barely mattered what it actually contained; he was lauded for getting all the way through it without doing anything shocking or offensive. Look at how “disciplined” he’s become! He stuck to the script! There were no insults thrown at minority groups! This new Trump really looks presidential!

Yeah, well good luck with that:

Breaking: Trump’s acceptance speech written in part by GW Bush speechwriters Matthew Scully &John McConnell. Source says it’s “presidential”

— Jonathan Alter (@jonathanalter) July 21, 2016

It’s hopeless. On the other hand, we know that Melania Trump’s speech was written by the same duo and she allegedly threw it out. Does anyone think Trump wouldn’t do the same thing?

He will almost certainly be unable to resist doing some call and response on the The Wall. I’m just curious to see if he inspires some “lock her up” chants.  I think there’s a pretty good chance he will.

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Who does Trump blame for his financial woes in Atlantic City?

by digby

It sure sounds like the kind of thing that creepy wingnut blowhard at the end of the bar would say. And Trump is that guy:

“I’ve got black accountants at Trump Castle and at Trump Plaza — black guys counting my money!” O’Donnell’s book quoted Trump as saying. “I hate it. The only kind of people I want counting my money are short guys that wear yarmulkes every day. Those are the kind of people I want counting my money. Nobody else. . . . Besides that, I’ve got to tell you something else. I think that the guy is lazy. And it’s probably not his fault because laziness is a trait in blacks. It really is; I believe that. It’s not anything they can control.”

Trump says he hasn’t read the book but when asked about it he told Playboy magazine that O’Donnell’s memoir was “probably true.”

Of course it is.

More examples here.

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This is for my girls

by digby

This is just the tonic you need today:

She really has been the best first mom.  It’s so great that she had teen-age daughters during her time in the White House. It kept her so grounded and accessible, and the country needed it so much during this time.

She was treated like dirt by the right wing, of course, with vile despicable racism piled on to the usual sexism. But she handled it so well. I will miss her.

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Trump is showing the world that the US is unstable

by digby

This story about Trump and NATO is truly something.

Wednesday night, Donald Trump said something that made a nuclear war between the United States and Russia more likely. With a few thoughtless words, he made World War III — the deaths of hundreds of millions of people in nuclear holocaust — plausible.

This probably scans like hyperbole, the kind of thing you hear a lot in politics. I assure you, it’s not. Not this time.

What Trump said, in an interview published by the New York Times, is that he wouldn’t necessarily defend the United States’ allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) if they were attacked by a foreign power. This extended, Trump said, to the Baltic countries right on Russia’s border — countries Russia might conceivably invade.

The NATO alliance is the key deterrent against this: It is founded on a promise that an attack on one NATO country is an attack on all. Trump is directly undermining this promise.

The consequences are hard to overstate. He is trashing one of the foundations of the postwar European order, which has helped guaranteed peace on the continent for 70 years. And by equivocating on whether he would defend the Baltics, he creates a dangerous amount of uncertainty among Russians as to how seriously the US takes its NATO treaty commitments — the kind of uncertainty that, yes, could spark an actual conflict between the US and Russia.

This is yet another example of how unfit he is for the presidency. I can’t recall where I heard it but someone wrote yesterday that the only reason the rest of the world isn’t in full blown panic mode is because they can’t wrap their minds around the idea that America would actually elect him. But it’s already had an effect. The fact that this cretin has been nominated by one of America’s two political parties is showing the world that we are more unstable than they knew. That’s the kind of environment where people start to make errors in judgment and take chances they normally wouldn’t take.

Trump has already made the world a more dangerous place and it’s going to take some work to reassure allies and enemies alike that the US is still a mature, stable nation. The simple fact that he is where he is has already done tremendous damage. But if he were to win, the morning after the election we will wake up to a world that is a much different — and even more dangerous — place than it already is.

Update: The clean-up crew is on the job:

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell “stressed that he disagrees with Donald Trump’s assertion that the United States shouldn’t immediately defend NATO allies, seeking to reassure the international community the U.S. would continue to come to the aid of countries in the alliance if they are attacked,” Politico reports.

Said McConnell: “I disagree with that. NATO is the most important military alliance in world history. I want to reassure our NATO allies that if any of them get attacked, we’ll be there to defend them.”

This kind of thing evidently isn’t a deal breaker though. McConnell endorsed him.

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Payback time for Ted Cruz


by digby

I wrote about Cruz for Salon this morning:

If night one of the Republican National Convention was all about the grim dystopian hellscape that is Hillary Clinton’s America and night two was all about prosecuting and imprisoning Hillary Clinton for her crimes, night three was about re-opening the wounds of the hard fought Republican primaries? Yes it was.

Actually those issues have been roiling under the surface of the convention since the beginning of the week when Trump campaign manager went to the press and complained about John Kasich refusing to endorse the nominee. The bad blood was evident in angry exchanges between the two camps even forcing Paul Ryan to step into it and take up for the Ohio Governor. The issue appears to go beyond Kasich refusing to attend the convention and is more due to the fact that that he does not seem to be willing to put his organization to work for Trump to win the vital swing state in the fall. This explains Trump’s repeated non-sequitor “we’re gonna win Ohio!” over the last couple of days.

The feud continued through yesterday when the Kasich team leaked a story to the New York Times on the day Governor Mike Pence was to formally accept the nomination for Vice President that Donald Jr had offered the Ohio Governor the job back in May, telling him that he’d be in charge of both foreign and domestic policy, freeing President Trump up to Make America Great Again. The Trump people denied the story but it was certain to leave a bad taste in Pence’s mouth on the morning of his big night.

Another former rival, Jeb Bush, also declined to attend or participate in the convention but wrote a scathing op-ed in the Washington Post on the eve of the gathering saying “Trump’s abrasive, Know Nothing-like nativist rhetoric has blocked out sober discourse about how to tackle America’s big challenges.” He even suggested he might vote for the libertarian party candidate in the fall. That’s an amazing statement coming from a member of the Bush family. A USA Today headline read “Once revered, Jeb Bush now an object of scorn for refusing to back Trump.”

Those two are important because they could deliver votes on the one hand and money on the other and neither are willing to help Trump win. It’s impossible to know how much personal ambition plays into this, probably some, but it’s also possible that both of these men believe that Trump is a malignant force that is destroying their party and potentially the country. If they were only concerned with their own political futures, there is no reason they couldn’t participate and endorse. It’s not as if others aren’t doing it.

One needs only look at Chris Christie who debased himself at Trump’s feet for months in the hopes of being chosen for VP only to be spurned and embarrassed when he was passed over. But he gamely led a vicious witch hunt against Hillary Clinton on Tuesday night, obviously still willing to do whatever wet work Trump might require in the wan hope that he might be Attorney General in a Trump administration.

Others, who want to preserve their viability for a more realistic future are a bit less enthusiastic. Former governor Rick Perry introduces war hero Marcus Luttrell on the first night without ever mentioning Trump’s name. Contrast that with Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, once considered the GOP’s brightest star, who took the stage on Wednesday and shouted his speech in a strange cadence that had people wondering what was wrong with him. Considering how bad the convention has been in general and the events that followed Walkers weird speech it probably won’t be remembered. But in any other year people would be writing think pieces about why anyone ever thought Scott Walker was presidential material.

And then there was “lil’ Marco” Rubio who in his inimitable fashion was too cute by half. He refused to attend the convention but agreed to do a short video trashing Clinton and endorsing Trump. It was ineffective at maintaining his distance or at delivering his endorsement and came off as manipulative and fake. It probably will not hurt him in Florida but it certainly didn’t help his future national prospects.

Ted Cruz, however, did something you rarely see in politics. He took a huge risk in front of millions of people and nobody knows whether it made him or destroyed him. He showed up, he gave a speech, he congratulated Trump on his win and then pointedly did not endorse him. It earned him boos and jeers from the crowd at the end, when the Trump delegates all realized he wasn’t going to be a good boy and follow the rules. They must have forgotten who they were dealing with.

Everyone assumes that he did this to set up his run in 2020 and that seems like a good bet. But it’s worth listening to his speech if that’s so. It wasn’t your typical fiery, right wing Ted Cruz speech.  It was, of course, extremely conservative, hitting all the hot button social issues and jingoistic high notes. But the rhetoric was couched in words like diversity and tolerance and respect.  He even gave a nod to gays and Muslims and atheists and honored the family of Alton Sterling (which was met with stunned silence by the crowd.) It was the most “compassionate conservative” speech of the convention, contrasting sharply with the hard edged, angry verbal violence of the all the pro-Trump speakers. That was not an accident.

He knew he would be booed in that hall. He also had to know that after days of watching his former rivals grovelling before the man who had grossly insulted them for months, Republicans watching at home would see someone who didn’t take potshots from afar but went into the belly of the beast, stood before the angry mob and Donald Trump himself and pointedly said they should vote their conscience in November. If his bet is that Trump is going to lose big and becomes an embarrassing memory for the GOP,  that’s what he’s betting he’ll be remembered for.

I have always thought Cruz was an underrated politician in the Nixon mode, an unpleasant fellow who makes up for it with intelligence, hard work and strategic foresight. He’s a liberal’s nightmare in so many ways. It would be a mistake to underestimate him.

The 2016 GOP primaries finally ended last night. And the 2020 primaries officially started.

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Now they’ve got a taste for it
by Tom Sullivan

Last night was supposed to be Gov. Mike Pence’s night to accept the nomination as Donald Trump’s vice president. Instead it belonged to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Once it became clear Cruz would not endorse Trump, Republican convention delegates who had hit their stride in chanting “Lock her up!” at Hillary Clinton drowned out the finish of Cruz’s speech in a chorus of boos. Even from Texas.

CNN reports that a man in a donor suite had to be restrained from assaulting Ted Cruz after he entered it after his speech.— Conor Friedersdorf (@conor64) July 21, 2016

In a smart, calculated speech last night in Cleveland, Cruz thumbed his nose at both the Republican standard bearer and Trump supporters in the hall. He stole the spotlight while keeping his distance from Trump, advising people to vote in November and to “vote their conscience.” Heidi Cruz had to be escorted from the floor of the convention. Trump supporters were “approaching in a threatening manner,” according to a report in Al Jazeera. Convention headlines this morning are peppered once again with the word chaos.

Josh Marshall noted that Trump’s team had clearly seen the speech ahead of time, but seemed caught off guard by its effect on the crowd.

Alan Fisher observes at Al Jazeera (emphasis mine):

Trump tweeted that he saw the speech two hours before it was delivered and saw no reason to stop Cruz going ahead.

Why on earth would he let Ted Cruz speak without securing an endorsement? Why would he take such a risk? The campaign shouldn’t have been so sloppy and unprofessional. Trump has made a virtue of running an unorthodox campaign and not using traditional political methods.

It’s worked until now. But when such a mistake is made, it risks harming everything he’s worked for to this point. And it’s not the first mistake this week. There was the mishandling of the announcement of Trump’s running mate Mike Pence, and the plagiarism row over a speech by this wife, Melania Trump.

The Cruz debacle sucked the energy and focus from the big set-piece speech by Pence, Trump’s vice presidential pick.

But that’s just the point. This is a campaign that has made being sloppy and unprofessional a Trump trademark. The last three days of this convention have proven that. It is a campaign with no clue as to how to govern and with no real interest in it. If Ohio Gov. John Kasich is to be believed, Trump’s team offered to make him vice president and in charge of both domestic and foreign policy. That would leave Trump free to be in charge of “making America great again.”

Trump could clearly use the help. In a New York Times interview released yesterday, Trump’s response to whether he would defend NATO countries from a Russian attack was, essentially, he would have to think about it.

It’s troubling to admit it, but in some sense, last night Ted Cruz may have taken the high road.

Dispatch from the trainwreck

by digby

This from former Bush official Dan Senor:

O’DONNELL: You and I are about the same age. What did you make of — we were here broadcasting the primetime special of 10 to 11. This was half empty, this hall. And it was something like I’ve never seen before.

SENOR: Yeah, I’ve never seen anything like it. I was on the floor there right there during the roll call vote. So I’ve been to many conventions. During the roll call vote, the energy and intensity during that moment is palpable. People are swinging from the ceiling because they’re so excited about their nominee. You could hear a pin drop. It was muted in here. I just think this is a party that has sort of resigned to this nominee but not excited about him.

This from his wife:

.@dansenor walking out as NY puts Trump “over the top”. Sad day for America pic.twitter.com/EaBJiFWlOa

— Campbell Brown (@campbell_brown) July 20, 2016

Very proud of my #NeverTrump husband standing on the floor as one of New York’s Kasich delegates. Will never endorse the racism and bigotry

— Campbell Brown (@campbell_brown) July 19, 2016

And yes, Dan Senor was part of the Bush administration that tortured people and started illegal wars. Trump would be no different on that count. It’s the domestic war Trump’s promoting that seems to be the bridge too far for these folks. I guess even they have their limits.

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