Perchance to dream
by Tom Sullivan
Ron Brownstein at CNN has an analysis of voting patterns that is at once unsurprising and eye-opening. With exceptions, of course, the coalition of states pushing to end the Obama administration’s protections for “dreamers,” undocumented children brought to the U.S. by their parents, is composed primarily of states with the lowest percentages of them. These states, which form the core of GOP strength, are those with the lowest exposure to non-native-born residents.
“Most Americans know and love the José or Mohammed they know; but are afraid of the José or Mohammed they don’t know,” says Ali Noorani, executive director of the National Immigration Forum. His book, “There Goes The Neighborhood,” explores the impact of changing demographics. We fear what we don’t know. Who knew?
Brownstein writes:
Democrats rely on what I have called a “coalition of transformation” that is largely comfortable with these changes, from increasing racial diversity and tolerance for diverse lifestyles to the transition toward a post-industrial economy. This coalition revolves around voters who are younger, more diverse, heavily urbanized, and among whites, both more secular and more tilted toward white-collar professions.
Republicans mobilize a competing “coalition of restoration” centered on voters who feel eclipsed, or even threatened, by these same changes. This coalition tends to be older, preponderantly white, religiously devout, strongest outside of major cities, and increasingly tilted toward blue-collar workers.
Hillary Clinton carried over three-quarters of states with the highest percentages of non-natives. Florida, Georgia, Texas, and Arizona were exceptions.
Nationwide, according to the 2011-2015 estimates, residents born in the US comprise 87% of the population while foreign-born residents contribute 13%. But as my CNN colleague Ryan Struyk has calculated, native-born residents account for 91% of the population in the states that Trump won and only 81% of the population in the states Clinton carried.
Similar patterns hold for representation in both the House and Senate. Again with exceptions, Democrats represent areas where immigrant populations exceed the national average. Republicans with large immigrant constituencies are in the minority in the GOP caucuses.
Notably,
Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Iowa all rank in the bottom half of states in the share of their population born abroad. But with virtually every Midwestern metropolitan area suffering an exodus of native-born adults in their prime working years, many communities across the Rust Belt in recent years have actively recruited immigrants to stabilize their population base and revitalize their economies.
As a result, Republicans from this politically pivotal region have shown less enthusiasm than their counterparts in the South, Plains and Mountain West for restricting immigration: no Rust Belt state, for instance, joined the Texas-led lawsuit against DACA. Some, like Republican Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, have even established initiatives to attract and integrate immigrants. House Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin has been a vocal early critic of the Senate proposal to slash legal immigration.
Immigration continues to be a fraught issue for Republicans, the New Republic reports:
On Tuesday, McClatchy reported that a group of White House officials, including yesterday’s Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, today’s Chief of Staff John Kelly, and the dynamic duo Javanka are urging the president to strike a larger immigration deal with Congress in exchange for protecting Dreamers. According to McClatchy, other top officials—Mike Pence, H.R. McMaster, and Gary Cohn—“are thought to agree” with the plan. So far that deal would include funding for the border wall, more detention beds, reducing legal immigration, and implementing the intrusive E-Verify program.
Democrats refuse to allow the president to use dreamers as bargaining chips.
It is reprehensible to treat children as bargaining chips. America’s DREAMers are not negotiable. #DefendDACA https://t.co/wErMfpWBlh— Nancy Pelosi (@NancyPelosi) August 22, 2017
So that added to the split among Republicans on the issue and Mitch McConnell’s doubts that the president can salvage his administration, we can expect the newest White House proposal to be as successful as the others.
So much winning.
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