Framing the numbers
by digby
There’s a new ABC/Washington Post poll out this morning about the Helsinki summit. It’s very interesting to see how the two news organizations frame it. ABC sees Trump weakening because moderates and Independents are appalled. The Washington Post sees no change because his cult is staying with him:
Fifty-six percent disapprove of Trump, in a post-summit news conference with Putin, expressing doubt about U.S. intelligence conclusions that Russia tried to influence the U.S. election; just 29 percent approve. Indeed, 41 percent disapprove “strongly,” vs. just 14 percent strongly approving.
Just 51 percent of Republicans and 44 percent of conservatives approve of Trump questioning U.S. intelligence on the matter, tepid levels of support in his base. In the political center, 59 percent of independents disapprove, as do 68 percent of moderates. Indeed, disapproval of Trump on this issue is as high among moderates as it is among liberals.
In terms of intensity of sentiment, the survey, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds that 70 percent of Democrats and 61 percent of liberals strongly disapprove of Trump questioning U.S. intelligence on the matter, while just 28 percent of Republicans and 24 percent of conservatives strongly approve.
Trump walked back his comments after returning to Washington, saying he misspoke when he questioned U.S. intelligence conclusions that Russia in fact tried to influence the election. But he also seemed to equivocate, saying, “Could be other people also. A lot of people out there.”
Trump’s challenges on this issue are made clear by the more typical partisan and ideological divisions on the broader question of whether he’s strengthened or weakened U.S. leadership in the world. Overall, 47 percent of Americans say America’s leadership has weakened under Trump, 30 percent say it’s grown stronger and 20 percent see no change. While 80 percent of Democrats see a weakened United States, 74 percent of Republicans say it’s stronger.
Again, though, Trump loses the middle, with independents seeing weaker rather than stronger U.S. leadership by 47-22 percent (as do moderates, by 54-17 percent). Moreover, while 72 percent of liberals say the United States has grown weaker in terms of world leadership, fewer conservatives say the opposite, 55 percent.
Better for Trump is that views on U.S. leadership under his presidency haven’t worsened despite the uproar over the Putin meeting. Last November, 53 percent said U.S. leadership had grown weaker; it’s in fact slightly lower now.
In terms of the Trump-Putin summit overall, 50 percent disapprove of how Trump handled it, while, as noted, 33 percent approve. (The rest, 18 percent, have no opinion.) Again Trump has comparative difficulty in his base; 66 percent of Republicans approve while 83 percent of Democrats disapprove, and 58 percent of conservatives approve while 73 percent of liberals disapprove.
In the middle, independents divide by 33-46 percent, disapproving by a 13-point margin. Among moderates this swells to a 45-point margin, 19-64 percent, approve-disapprove.
Here’s how the Washington Post characterized the same poll:
By wide margins, Americans give President Trump negative marks for his conduct during a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week and for his casting doubt on U.S. intelligence conclusions that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds.
But public reaction nationally appears more muted than in Washington where Trump faced withering bipartisan criticism for appearing to side with Putin over U.S. intelligence agencies at a Monday news conference in Helsinki. Most Americans do not feel Trump went “too far” in supporting Putin, and while more Americans say U.S. leadership has gotten weaker than stronger under Trump, his ratings on this question are slightly improved from last fall.
The findings indicate that while Trump was judged critically for his summit performance, the event has not at this time proved to be a significant turning point in his presidency, despite the sharp criticism he received in the hours and days after the meeting and the multiple efforts by White House officials and the president to clarify his remarks in Helsinki. The poll results suggest that overall attitudes toward the president have hardened on both sides and that major events like Helsinki produce only modest changes in his overall standing, if any.
I guess you see what you want to see but if this coming election is a referendum on Trump, then I think the ABC interpretation is more salient. His cult may stay with him, but Republicans in the congress need moderates and Independents. Since they are all acting like cowards and sycophants that’s going to be a problem for them.
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