Begin it now
by Tom Sullivan
Remedy NC district map suggested by federal court in Monday ruling.
Common Cause and The League of Women Voters of North Carolina on Monday won their federal partisan gerrymandering case. Writing for the three-judge district court, Judge James A. Wynn Jr. said plaintiffs had proved “invidious partisan discrimination” in the GOP-led legislature’s drawing 12 of the 13 districts. The court insisted on new maps for the November elections. Plaintiffs and the Republican legislator-defendants had until Friday to respond to the ruling. The GOP Chairman of the North Carolina Senate Redistricting Committee and his colleagues requested a stay on the court’s ruling and appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.
“With utmost frustration and regret,” the plaintiffs acknowledged in their response, “attempting to impose a new districting plan in time for the 2018 election would be too disruptive and potentially counterproductive.” They requested the elections go ahead with the 2016 maps the court had just ruled illegal. Should that occur, the election nonetheless will be a travesty.
The Raleigh News and Observer has more, noting the three-judge panel isn’t required to use the plaintiffs’ suggestion. Neither does the court believe the defendants are entitled to a third bad-faith attempt to draw acceptable districts. It will appoint a special master. The ruling even hinted at an acceptable map (above).
What a 4:4 SCOTUS will do in the meantime is guesswork. Situation Normal, etc.
As drawn, the North Carolina districts ruled unconstitutional heavily favor Republican candidates. If, however, the lower court’s decision stands that regardless of what happens in 2018, the 2016 maps will not see use beyond 2018, fairly drawn districts open possibilities for Democrats in 2020. That requires laying groundwork now and a commitment to a view longer than a single election cycle.
Rep. Mark Meadows’ district in the western mountains, for example. The aim of the NCGOP’s original 2011 gerrymandering was to split the district’s blue baby in two, sending the larger part of Asheville to Rep. Patrick McHenry’s already very red NC-10. The effect of NC-10’s Asheville-grabbing, amoeba-like appendage was to make NC-11 uncompetitive for Democrats without harming McHenry. Democrat Heath Shuler had won the NC-11 seat in 2006 under different district lines. Seeing the handwriting on the map, Shuler retired. Freedom Caucus chair Meadows has held the NC-11 seat since 2013 without strong challenge.
2016 NC congressional maps ruled unconstitutional on Monday.
Should the court’s special master redraw the districts (before or after this year), Meadows will be vulnerable in 2020. Viable Democrats will emerge to challenge him and money will pour in.
But the time to put effort into NC-11 (as well as other NC districts) is now, win or lose, not 2020.
The progressive shift in western North Carolina began before North Carolina became a swing state. In 2004, Kathy Sinclair led the de facto John Kerry campaign in western North Carolina, organizing hundreds of volunteers opposed to the Bush administration. Democrat Patsy Keever (later a state House member and state party chair) took on seven-term Rep. Charles H. Taylor. Taylor’s bank was involved with fraud, conspiracy, money laundering, and shady Russians before that was presidential.
Both Kerry and Keever lost in 2004. But the experience gained by 2004 staff and volunteers from both teams set the stage for Shuler to defeat Taylor in 2006. Keever’s 2004 campaign was more the most fun I ever had losing, but watching Taylor concede on a rainy November day in 2006 was monumental. On Election Night 2008, late-reporting of vote from Asheville-Buncombe tipped North Carolina blue.
A lot of armchair progressives hate their GOP congressmen. They need to engage now, not wait until a more favorable map to do it. What they sow this year they can reap in 2020.
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