A precipitous drop
by digby
Many people dismissed that latest ABC/Washington Post poll showing Trump’s job approval tanking to 36% in the last month despite the fact that it’s a 538. com “A” rated poll. It could be an outlier. But now there’s another “A” rated poll with similar results:
Just 36% say they approve of the job President Trump is doing, a 5-point drop from last month, according to the latest IBD/TIPP poll. Fifty six percent disapprove of Trump’s job performance, up from 53% the month before.
The drop in Trump’s approval rating comes after a spate of bad news, including the conviction of his former campaign chairman on eight counts of fraud and a guilty plea on campaign finance charges by Trump’s former lawyer, which sparked a torrent of impeachment talk. Trump also caught flak for his handling of Sen. John McCain’s passing.
The sharp decline also comes with the midterm elections now just over two months away.
The broader IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index plunged 11.6% to 40.4. That’s one of the biggest monthly drops since IBD started tracking this index in January 2000. The proprietary Leadership Index combines results from several questions on approval, favorability and strength of leadership.
Trump’s Approval: Losing GOP SupportTrump lost significant ground on job approval with Republicans this month, which fell from 83% last month to 76% this month. Among independents, Trump’s approval dropped 4 points to 33%. Democratic approval has never been above the low single digits.
He also saw a big drop in support from men (it went from 49% last month to 40% today). His backing among women, however, barely changed. It’s currently 32%.
Regionally, his biggest losses came in the Northeast, where his approval rating dropped 12 points. In the West, his approval declined only 2 points.
His support among rural dwellers plunged 15 points — going from 60% to 45%. It fell 7 points among suburban voters to 35%.
Trump’s sagging approval appears to be improving Democrats chances of taking control of the House after the midterm elections. Last month, the IBD/TIPP poll showed registered voters split at 45%-45% on whether Congress should be controlled by Republicans or Democrats.
The current poll shows Democrats with an 11-point advantage. Fifty percent now say they’d prefer Congress controlled by Democrats, with 39% favoring Republican control.
And while the public doesn’t approve of Trump’s overall job performance, 45% give him top marks for his handling of the economy.
“Despite an economy firing on all cylinders, President Trump still must contend with the sensationalism surrounding Special Counsel Mueller’s ongoing Russia investigation,” said Raghavan Mayur, President of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts the monthly IBD/TIPP poll. “He also faced criticism for his response to the recent passing of Senator John McCain.”
“In addition, the escalating feud between Trump and Attorney General Jeff Sessions, along with news surrounding White House counsel Don McGahn, have given the impression of some disarray within the White House,” Mayur added.
“Trump’s approval numbers might also be a result of the public expressing concerns over rising consumer prices and the economic impact of potential auto tariffs,” he said.
We’ll see if this drop is replicated in the next spate of polls after the holiday. It’s hard to imagine after all this time but you never know. If he is losing altitude, it’s probably good news for the midterms. Fingers crossed.
.