The “vulnerability ratio”
by digby
This represents a new level of politicization. He’s long been demanding that the DOJ lock up his political opponents. Now he wants it to allow GOP criminals to go free. Of course, we’ve seen hints of this before. He did, after all, ask FBI director James Comey to let Michael Flynn off so it’s how he generally operates. Still, this is new. He thinks Sessions shouldn’t just be protecting him but should also use the DOJ to protect the GOP majority by allowing their numerous crooks to have free rein so they can stay in power — and protect him. He is, after all, one of the crooks himself.
Maybe this is what got him so worked up:
Bruce Mehlman of Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas has found a new way to measure House Republicans’ peril: “vulnerability ratio,” which he measures as the net number of seats at risk versus the number needed to flip.
Mehlman, a former lawyer for House Republicans, fears that measure is worse for the majority party than it was in 2006 or 2010, when the House flipped. His explanation:
With 38 GOP House seats rated toss-up or worse by Cook Political Report, to only three Dem Seats, 2018 Republicans have net 35 seats at risk, significantly more than they can afford to lose (23).
With 152% of Repubicans’ margin vulnerable, they’re in a more perilous position than Democrats in 2010 (when 123% of their margin was vulnerable) or Republicans in 2006 (119%).
The Cook data for each year is from the House ratings closest to Labor Day for each cycle.
I don’t want to get anyone’s hopes up. But if the Democrats keep their heads down and just work like their lives depend on it (which they do) that wave may just materialize. It has to. He’s cray.