Who’s calling the shots?
by Tom Sullivan
Several California U.S. House seats are rated toss-ups by Real Clear Politics and Cook’s Political Report. CA-22 held by Devin Nunes of Fresno is not one of them, and is ranked a safe seat. Still, the sitting president might not want to take chances with losing his guard dog.
“Representative Devin Nunes, a man of tremendous courage and grit, may someday be recognized as a Great American Hero for what he has exposed and what he has had to endure!” the sitting president tweeted in February. On Tuesday, the San Francisco Chronicle suggested that Donald Trump may yet venture into California ahead of November 6 to shore up support for California Republicans:
“Everything is on the table with the president and the party,” Ronna McDaniel, chair of the Republican National Committee, told The Chronicle’s John Wildermuth while she was campaigning in Orange County with GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher. “He has kept the last week of the campaign clear, and he’ll be where he is needed.”
Trump has come close to California in the last week, making campaign stops in Elko, Nev. and Mesa, Ariz., for Republican U.S. Senate candidates. But Trump is more popular in those states than in California, where only 27 percent of voters approve of the president’s job performance, according to a USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll released last week.
There is a point to make about turning that disapproval into removal for the Rohrabachers and Trumpers like Nunes, and not just in California.
Dr. Michael Bitzer at Old North State Politics observes that with two weeks to go in the 2018 elections voting in North Carolina is tracking 2016 presidential-year turnout:
Regarding NC accepted in-person ballots (that will be the majority of absentees): as has been noted over past few days, 2018 seems more of a 'presidential' year than a traditional mid-term.
But, 2018's daily total is beginning to slip behind 2016's daily total#ncpol #ncvotes pic.twitter.com/qYWnV90SdF— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 24, 2018
Furthermore, Bitzer shows Democrats surging ahead of Republicans in absentee ballot requests. Some of this may be the effect of hurricane victims’ requests.
Now, 2016 & 2018 (as of 10-22): again, 2016 saw 1/3 of ballots on Election Day (could also be provisional/transfers on ED), but registered party divides evident in early voting again, with parity on Election Day.
2018…seems…well…interesting, due to reg Dem pluralities… pic.twitter.com/W3U6imb4oj— Old North State Politics (@oldnorthstpol) October 22, 2018
On Monday, I mentioned a chart I’d seen comparing voting age population in North Carolina against early voting turnout by population. Last night, I built one (at top). The NC population curve is not dissimilar to the overall U.S. population curve.
Even though overall numbers look favorable for Democrats in NC, I always remind voters Republicans bat last. Running up a score in early voting is no guarantee that lead will hold on Election Day. But notice in my chart just who is voting. The press likes to run reports about apathy among younger voters. Their votes don’t matter, nothing ever changes, the system is corrupt, etc. The chart confirms what we already know: older Americans vote in higher numbers. It’s just that older voters don’t have the numbers to wield the power they do. People under 45 do. They just don’t. If you don’t show up to play, you forfeit.
In the same way Republicans wield power disproportionate to their actual numbers, older voters do too. Younger voters could be running this joint. They could be calling the shots and making the changes they want to see.
In California, they could be making guys like Devin Nunes and Dana Rohrabacher go bye-bye. If they only exercised the power right in front of them.
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For The Win 2018 is ready for download. Request a copy of my county-level election mechanics primer at tom.bluecentury at gmail.