Was “the caravan” issue working for the Republicans?
by digby
Democratic strategists acknowledged that the first images of the migrant caravan made them worry. But neither side has seen movement in polling this week, nor has either side seen voters elevating “immigration” as their top issue. In an interview here at a campaign stop for Republican gubernatorial hopeful Walker Stapleton, former Homeland Security secretary Tom Ridge said the bomb threats were a nonpartisan issue and minimized the impact of the caravan.
“I suspect there are some legitimate people in there who could apply for asylum,” Ridge said. “I suspect there are some immigrants in there who want to come to this country like every other immigrant does, because they want opportunity. And there are probably some people in there who are antagonists.”
What the media are covering instead is an election that has settled into a groove, with Democrats focusing relentlessly on health care and Republicans trying out a number of themes — the caravan, the Brett M. Kavanaugh nomination, the “civility” debate, even an out-of-the-blue tax cut resolution — to undercut the Democrats. One party is consistent and holds the lead in most key House and gubernatorial races; the other party is frantic, edging ahead in some Senate races and trying to shift the dynamics in the rest. While the Republican position has improved in some races, the party and its PACs are now using late money from large donors to go on the air in districts that were not seen as competitive this summer.
It’s as if Democrats have spent six months selling Coca-Cola Classic, while Republicans have launched marketing campaigns for Pepsi, then Crystal Pepsi, then Dr Pepper, then Health-Ade Kombucha, and finally, Slim Jims. Think about Newt Gingrich, who stays in touch with Republican candidates and regularly appears on Fox News. Two months ago, he suggested that the story of an immigrant arrested for the killing of an Iowa woman could shake up the election: “If Mollie Tibbetts is a household name by October, Democrats will be in deep trouble.” One month later, Gingrich said the “rallying cry” of the election would be “Remember Kavanaugh.” And now, he’s betting the election on the caravan.
Weigel points out that the GOP has been doing a little bit better recently, mostly due to Trump’s improving approval rating. (As hard as that is to believe…) We don’t know yet how the events of the last week may have affected all of this. We’ll see new polling over the next few days.
Trump plans to ratchet up the hate on Tuesday in the hopes of bringing even more people over to the dark side.
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