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Month: October 2018

Who’s reaping the whirlwind again?

Who’s reaping the whirlwind again?

by digby

The share of women with college degrees who identify as Democratic or Democratic-leaning has slowly grown over the last couple of decades, but accelerated in the last few years.

And guess what? Women turn out — and this year, they’re very Democratic:

NPR:

It’s nothing new for women to be politically active — women’s turnout rate has outstripped men’s in every presidential election since 1980, and in every midterm election since 1986. (In terms of raw numbers, women have outvoted men in every national election since at least 1964. These days, that gap is several million every election year.) 

In that sense, every year is the “year of the woman.” 

But in 2018, polls show women have swung even more Democratic than usual, while men remain nearly evenly split, or leaning slightly Republican. According to an NPR analysis of recent likely-voter polls, this year’s gender gap could be even bigger than those in 2014 and 2016, with women far more Democratic than in either of those years.

That larger gap may be here to stay, Matthews says, in part because it’s inseparable from other longer-term political trends. 

“Whereas the Republican Party used to primarily be comprised of college educated voters, college educated voters — particularly college educated women — have been becoming more Democratic,” Matthews said. “What happened is the 2016 election sped that up.”

Right. When the Democrats nominated the first woman to head a presidential ticket,  Republicans responded by choosing a moronic, unfit, misogynist pig to show the bitches who’s boss. So yeah, it’s been sped up. But it’s been coming for a while as you can see from the charts. The antediluvian all-male power structure is being challenged everywhere. In the West, it’s all wrapped up in white nationalism. Elsewhere it’s just patriarchy and traditional authoritarian values. But it’s all about a fundamental change in the way humans organize themselves.

They protectors of the old order are still very, very powerful as we can see. One should not underestimate their willingness to pull out all the stops to maintain control. But here in America there’s a chance that we can at least start to show them that shoving cartoon misogynist villains in our faces is not a wise strategy. It’s a small step but an important one.

Update:

Daddy’s on the warpath. So what?

Daddy’s on the warpath. So what?
by digby


There has been a lot of discussion lately about women’s rage. New York magazine’s Rebecca Traister (a former Salon staffer) has written a timely book about it and has chronicled various aspects of the issue, most recently in the New York Times. Women are mad as hell, for sure. But if they want to see how powerful white men (and the women who enable them) leverage anger to dominate the rest of us, we’ve just had a potent demonstration of how that works.

The rhetorical violence of the right-wing response to the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation mess perfectly illustrates the “Don’t make daddy mad” tactic of white patriarchy. Powerful white men may allow women and people of color to speak their piece but such people should never, ever think that they get to make the rules. If they refuse to back down when they’re told to do so, there will be hell to pay. This is a familiar tactic to people who grew up in traditional, patriarchal families. Mother may complain and the kids will squabble, but when Father has had enough and puts his foot down, everyone must stop or face his wrath, which will be swift and often brutal.

This particular political temper tantrum has been building for about a quarter of a century, ever since Bill Clinton disrupted what Republicans believed was a lock on the presidency stemming from the glorious reign of Ronald Reagan. They considered Clinton an unreconstructed hippie who was illegitimately elected they treated him as such for his entire eight-year term, ending with that failed impeachment trial. They were furious that the public didn’t back their play and when the 2000 election chaos ensued, they fought with everything they had and eked out a win. (Thanks to the Supreme Court, let us note.)

Since the Democrats pretty much cried uncle on that occasion, Republican anger settled down to simmer and they reveled in the soaring popularity of George W. Bush after 9/11, feeling their rightful dominance once again restored. That didn’t last and Bush ended as a failed president, causing their rage to rise to unprecedented levels with the election of Barack Obama, our first black president. They pushed hard to make Obama lose his cool but he never did. He couldn’t, of course. Any black man in America, especially if he’s in a leadership position, must always stay in control lest he unleash the beast.

So right-wing male anger grew and grew, finding an initial outlet in the Tea Party wave election of 2010. Then Democrats made the fateful decision to push the envelope and try to force them to endure another leader who challenged their rightful roles, this time a woman. Recall the words of NRA executive vice president Wayne LaPierre, who said it out loud: “Eight years of one demographically symbolic president is enough.”

Hillary Clinton had always made those kinds of men livid. She was an uppity feminist woman whose most enduring characteristic was that when she was defeated or humiliated she simply refused to shut up and slink away. (That trait annoys people to this day.) That she would deign to believe she could be president after they had dogged her with one bogus scandal after another, and even held her liable for her husband’s personal weaknesses, was just too much.

Their anger boiled over and found a voice in Donald Trump, who ranted his way into the presidency, threatening to torture prisoners and deport foreigners and let the police “take off the gloves” and restore “law and order.” He was known to have had no respect for women which he eagerly demonstrated from the get-go when he insulted Fox News’ Megyn Kelly and Republican rival Carly Fiorina in highly gendered terms and just kept going. They knew he was the perfect man to destroy Hillary Clinton.

By the time he got to the 2016 Republican convention to accept the nomination, the party was in a full-fledged misogynist frenzy, chanting and screaming “Lock her up!” This was unprecedented. Conventions are always somewhat rowdy affairs, but a hall full of rabid Republican activists howling for their political rival to be jailed had never been seen before.

But it served a purpose that has served patriarchal societies forever. The whole country was on notice that if Clinton became president, the Republicans would go nuclear. The Washington Post reported before the election that they were already preparing to impeach her if she won. Trump himself made the threat explicitly over and over again on the campaign trail:

Hillary Clinton is the most corrupt person ever to seek the presidency, and if she were elected, it would create an unprecedented constitutional crisis. You know it’s going to happen. And in all fairness, we went through it with her husband. He was impeached. … Folks, do we want to go through this again?

It is not unlikely that there were quite a few voters who felt a little bit sick at the prospect and decided it wasn’t worth it. It’s not an entirely irrational reaction. Life is short.

But as it happens, resistance to Trump’s rule has been fierce, particularly among women who have apparently decided they’ve had enough. They took to the streets in massive numbers. Led by African-American women in places like Alabama where they faced down a man known for exploiting underage women, women have organized and set to work electing new representatives all over the country. The #MeToo movement certainly stemmed at least in part from the abject astonishment — and rage — that the Republicans would actually elect a man who had bragged about sexually assaulting women.

And now the Republican Daddy is ready to explode. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, an elite GOP operative who has been accused of attempted rape, has finally sent them over the edge. The threats are flying.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., the man who made his bones as a Clinton impeachment manager in the House, roared: “This happens to us; it never happens to them. But let me talk to my Democratic friends: If this is the new norm, you better watch out for your nominees.”

Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., announced on “Face the Nation” that Christine Blasey Ford’s lawyers might face “a D.C. bar investigation into their misconduct,” adding that Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., and her staff might also be investigated for leaking Ford’s letter to the press. (Feinstein has denied doing this, to be clear.)

There’s no word on whether he seeks to lock her up too.

And then there was Kavanaugh himself, who startled everyone with his temper tantrum and emotional manipulation at last Thursday’s hearing. He blamed his political enemies, insulted Democratic senators and defied their questions, and threatening that Democrats were “reaping the whirlwind.”

The message is clear. Everyone had better run for cover because Daddy’s on the warpath and somebody’s going to get hurt.

The problem with this tactic is that everything is already so crazy and chaotic that these kinds of threats no longer inspire the terror they’re meant to. Perhaps this thrills their followers, but it doesn’t scare women or people of color anymore. In fact, it’s motivating them to remove these out-of-control people from power. They aren’t daddies at all. They are spoiled children having a temper tantrum. And they need a very long time-out.

Another missive to my senators by @BloggersRUs

Another missive to my senators
by Tom Sullivan

Sent out by e-fax this morning:

Now you are really in a fix. The only way for you to save face in this Brett Kavanaugh debacle is to force him to withdraw so you do not have to vote on his nomination yea or nay.

The FBI inquiry should resolve whether additional evidence exists to support allegations made against Judge Kavanaugh for behavior in his teens and college years. But even exonerating evidence is irrelevant. Kavanaugh himself provided all the evidence necessary to determine he is unfit to sit on the Supreme Court.

Beside his partisan fury, Kavanaugh told a litany of lies large and small – under oath – that are an insult to your intelligence and mine. It would take willful blindness to ignore them. A sitting federal appeals court judge publicly and forcefully built a case against himself sitting on the Supreme Court or continuing in the job he holds. Dr. Christine Blasey Ford didn’t do that. Democrats didn’t do that. Brett Kavanaugh did that.

Your angry colleagues made process arguments about timing. What is at stake is the integrity of the court, not process. This is about his fitness.

In front of the world, Kavanaugh all but juggled ball bearings in his hand while babbling about strawberries.

No doubt, a naval officer like the fictional Capt. Queeg receives awards and recommendations, too, before winning high position. But under stress and under oath, both Queeg and Kavanaugh revealed themselves as unfit to serve.

Save yourself if you won’t act to save your country. Pressure Kavanaugh to withdraw.

Even appealing to their self-interest won’t help, of course. The prions have already driven them into madness.

* * * * * * * * *

For The Win 2018 is ready for download. Request a copy of my county-level election mechanics primer at tom.bluecentury at gmail.

Willie says “Vote ‘Em Out!”

Willie says “Vote ‘Em Out!”

by digby

Rallies aren’t really an indicator of anything. And having a Texas living legend headlining in Austin can’t go wrong. Still, this is pretty impressive:

When 85-year-old country music legend Willie Nelson joined 46-year-old Texas Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) on stage Saturday night in Austin, they were greeted by more than 50,000 people, according to O’Rourke’s campaign. Other estimates cite roughly 55,000 in attendance. The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday those kind of numbers would make it the largest rally for a single candidate since “at least” the 2016 presidential campaign. Nelson even debuted a new song at the rally, “Vote ‘Em Out,” which he ended with a shout out to the Democratic candidate: “Thank you Beto, all the way buddy!”

Trumpie’s gonna be mad… certainly, he must have had the yugest rallies, right? He must’ve. It can’t be true.

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Do You Have Photos From Kavanaugh’s High School or College Years? @spockosbrain

Do You Have Photos From Kavanaugh’s High School or College Years?

by Spocko

If you have photos from the area and time in question, check your files. Your photos could change the course of US history.

In his opening statement Brett Kavanaugh said,

“Dr. Ford’s allegation stems from a party that she alleges occurred during the summer of 1982. Thirty-six years ago. I was 17 years old. Between my junior and senior years of high school at Georgetown Prep, a rigorous all-boys Catholic Jesuit high school in Rockville, Md. When my friends and I spent time together at parties on weekends, it was usually with friends from nearby Catholic all-girl high schools: Stone Ridge, Holy Child, Visitation, Immaculata, Holy Cross.

Dr. Ford did not attend one of those schools. She attended an independent private school named Holton-Arms and she was a year behind me. She and I did not travel in the same social circles. It’s possible we met at some point at some events, although I do not recall that. ”  (Transcript)

The White House has limited the scope of the FBI’s investigation, but regular people can still look and submit hard evidence to the FBI. Kavanaugh mentions the schools he said he hung out with, but that doesn’t mean boys or girls from other schools didn’t attend their parties. If you lived in that area during that time and took photos check your files.

The “Renate Alumni” from a scan of the Georgetown Prep Yearbook by Washington Monthly
Photo collage by Spocko based on my photo envelopes from the 1980’s

I was the head photographer of my high school yearbook. In those days not everyone had a camera. Film and prints cost money. But people still took thousands of photos of other high school events. Events that didn’t show up in the year book.  I know they exist because I worked in a photo lab at that time.

I remember the smell of stop bath and fixer as rolls of color negatives came out of the machine.  I saw women working for hours a day in dark rooms to print out batches of 12, 24 or 36 photos. They printed photos of birthday parties. Dances. Keggers. Graduations and drunken parties at the beach.

I only put some of my photos in a scrapbook. Until a few years ago mine were in my parent’s linen closet on the shelf behind the Christmas decorations.  They were in gold and black envelopes reminding people IMPORTANT! PLEASE SAVE THESE NEGATIVES FOR FUTURE USE and “We Use Kodak Paper!”  The dates of development were printed on the back of photos.

I don’t have a calendar to identify all the people in my photos, but I can ask others if they can fill in my memory blanks.

Photos of a 17-year old at a party holding a beer can isn’t proof the person holding it was drunk.
Unless there is video, it’s not even hard evidence the person actually drank the beer. But…

For the yearbook staff identification of who was in the photos was very important. Screwing up something in the yearbook was a BFD because the high school yearbook became the main “permanent record” that other people saw. 

(By The Way, BFD is short for Big Fucking Deal. As far as I know it is not a drinking game nor is it short for “Brett Farts Daily” although I suppose someone could lie about that definition if they are a lying liar. )
 
In high school I was the only photographer with a wide-angle lens, so I took almost all of the team and group photos. I took photos of every group from the nine members of the chess club to the 39 members of the JV football team.

I would turn in my photos with the list of names I got of the people in the club or team to the person in charge of the clubs or sports section who would confirm them.

Do photos of Brett Kavanaugh where he’s got his arms around a woman he now says he doesn’t know mean he is a liar?  Not necessarily. I can look at old photos and not remember the name of people from 36 years ago. But other people in and around the the photo might remember, because perhaps for them that party was a BFD.

Photos aren’t perfect evidence. They can only show what was captured on film and context is still important. But even if the photographer was later blackout drunk, the photo still exists.

Will the “men of conscience” from Georgetown Prep in 1982 come forward?

I went to the web pages of the schools Kavanaugh mentioned. Holton-Arms had a brilliant letter by Susanna A. Jones, the Head of School, about what they are doing now to help their girls. It is through, insightful and extensive “How can we help our young people avoid becoming victims or perpetrators of sexual assault, or if they do, feel empowered to seek support?”

In contrast, Georgetown Prep’s statement was defensive and used the, “other schools have problems too!” whine line of reasoning.

The image that has been presented on social media and in various news outlets depicts recklessness, illegal conduct, and lack of respect for persons. Worse, many blame these faults on institutional indifference.

But the temptations, and the failings, presented in these stories are not unique to Georgetown Prep. The problems and abuses of alcohol and drugs, sexual assault and misconduct, emotional and physical violence toward others are real; educators at every institution of primary, secondary, or higher learning in our nation face these problems every day. 

What I want to know is how this institution will deal with the current situation. Will they help the FBI and provide their own records? Will they open up the old yearbook archives? Or will they stonewall? They state they are dedicated to the mission of “forming men of conscience, competence, courage, and compassion; men of faith and men for others.” how will they act now?

And my big question: Will these “men of conscience” from Georgetown Prep circa 1982 come forward? Does being a “man for others” include telling the truth about what happened to girls from local girl’s schools during summer parties?

This isn’t just about Kavanaugh and what he says anymore, it’s also about his friends and associates from that time period. Will they provide evidence of what they know happened and when it happened? Or will they cover their own mouths? 

The Georgetown Prep statement ends with Latin: Ad majorem Dei gloriam. “To the greater glory of God.” If the boys from that time have evidence of crimes that were committed, will they come forward?  If not, which god are they serving?

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