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Month: November 2018

Brave Sir Donald by @BloggersRUs

Published by Tom Sullivan on November 1, 2018

Brave Sir Donald
by Tom Sullivan

In the brave state of Trumpistan, patriotism means peeing yourself when Dear Leader says, “Boo!” Thus, the sitting president’s closing argument for voting Republican is invaders a thousand miles away are coming to slit our throats in our beds using flip-flops. Lest his fear-mongering to this point was too subtle, the sitting president threw down a Willie Hortonesque ad yesterday as grotesque as the rest of his presidency.

But the fear you smell may be his own.

Just days now from the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats are poised to gain 25-40 seats in the U.S. House. That means subpoena power and an end to Trump’s legislative agenda this term, plus, potentially, “sweeping changes to future campaign and ethics laws, requiring the disclosure of shadowy political donors, outlawing the gerrymandering of congressional districts and restoring key enforcement provisions to the Voting Rights Act.” Democrats need 23 seats to win a House majority. But Nate Silver projects it will take a “systemic polling error” for Democrats to win control of the U.S. Senate. And Trump will still sit in the Oval Office.

Still, the Hill reports this morning House Democrats have growing confidence they will win big on Tuesday night. While Donald Trump ring-masters circuses of fear, Democrats are driving home the message that they intend to protect and expand health care coverage:

A Fox News poll this month found health care is the top issue for voters, with 58 percent saying it is “extremely” important to their vote; within that group, Democrats have a 24-point lead over Republicans.

And they’re getting that message across through campaign ads.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is now running a new round of ads calling out vulnerable House Republicans for voting in favor of repealing ObamaCare last year.

One ad attacking Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.), in the quintessential suburban district being targeted by Democrats, shows a sick child as a voiceover cites Roskam’s repeated votes to nix ObamaCare and its pre-existing condition protections. “Imagine watching him go without life-saving treatment because it’s been denied by your insurance,” the ad says. “That’s what Peter Roskam voted for. Not just once, but over and over again.”

Trump’s attempt to distract attention from pipe bombs mailed by the MAGAbomber and the synagogue mass shooting apparently inspired by Trump’s whipping up fear of an immigrant caravan in Mexico are a sign of Republican desperation, Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist, told The Hill.

“You don’t throw a Hail Mary pass if you’re up by a few touchdowns,” he said.

If you live in a state with some form of early voting, now would be a good time to run up the score. Even with some states poised to surpass 2014 totals in the early voting period, remember, Republicans bat last.

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For The Win 2018 is ready for download. Request a copy of my county-level election mechanics primer at tom.bluecentury at gmail.

Halloween Scenario: Trump Launches A Drone Strike On The Caravan @spockosbrain

Published by Spocko on November 1, 2018

Halloween Scenario: Trump Launches A Drone Strike On The Caravan
By Spocko

It’s Halloween so I wanted to use my knowledge of military drones, rules of engagement by the military on US soil and Donald Trump’s executive power as Commander In Chief. I’ll call this Scenario: Operation Cucaracha Crush 

1) Trump launches surveillance drones to report on “the invaders” in the caravan while they are in Mexico. 

Drone footage shows caravan of migrants in southern Mexico.
Thousands of Central American migrants arrived in southern Mexico on Oct. 21, on their journey to the United States –Washington Post footage from October 21

2) Trump says the surveillance drone footage shows there are some really “bad hombres” in the caravan who are using the women and children as cover.

Here are Trump’s real October 31st tweets. 

3) Trump tells “the invaders” to disband and stop coming. If they don’t stop he will launch an airstrike. (This will bring up comparisons to Obama ordering airstrikes in foreign countries and allow a flurry of “both sides do it” stories in the media. Trump will take advantage of the executive power granted to Obama by congress to launch drone strikes in foreign countries, so questions about its use in Mexico will only be about breaking “norms” not breaking laws.

3) Mexico will see this as an unwarranted attack on their sovereignty and respond, saying that they will shoot down any drones in their airspace.

4) Trump will claim that he has a responsibility to protect America and—since he doesn’t have a wall yet—he has to act. The caravan doesn’t disband after his warning, so Trump sends a drone.

5) The drone will kill some people who Trump says are “bad hombres” He will claim to use intelligence about the “bad hombres” gathered in the same fashion Obama did. The use of this method is suggested by John Bolton.  Any criticism about the process will end with, “Obama did it.”  Women and children will be accidentally killed, but so did strikes run by Obama.

Alternative 5a) Drone is shot down by Mexico before the strike.

6) Trump declares war on Mexico for their response in aiding and abetting invaders.

7) Trump tells the Mexico that they either stop the invaders or he will send in his own troops that are already massed at the border. (Trump can’t order military action on US soil, but if they move to Mexican soil they can attack to retaliation for shooting down a US drone and to take out the invading caravan.

8) Because Mexico doesn’t want to have a war with Trump, they are forced to act, which is what Trump wanted. Mexico sends in local troops to break up the caravan.

9) Trump “wins” showing he is tough on illegal immigration. This escalation all happens before midterms while the GOP still controls the House and Senate.

Scary enough for ya? Happy Halloween!

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Bannon in focus

Published by digby on November 1, 2018
Bannon in focus

by digby

I don’t know what this is really all about but it’s interesting considering that Bannon has escaped most of the Russia collusion talk and I’ve always wondered why. He was a principal in Cambridge Analytica. Anyway, it appears that someone is looking at him at long last:

The U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee is pursuing a wide-ranging examination of former White House adviser Steve Bannon’s activities during the 2016 presidential campaign, three sources familiar with the inquiry told Reuters.

The committee is looking into what Bannon might know about any contacts during the campaign between Moscow and two advisers to the campaign, George Papadopoulos and Carter Page, they said. 

William Burck, a lawyer for Bannon, told Reuters: “The Senate Intelligence Committee has expressed an interest in interviewing Mr. Bannon as a witness, just as they have many other people involved in the Trump Campaign. But the Committee has never suggested that he’s under investigation himself and to claim otherwise is recklessly false.” 

Papadopoulos, a consultant, initially advised the presidential campaign of Republican hopeful Ben Carson before joining the Trump campaign. Page is also a consultant, who had business contacts in Russia. 

On Sept. 7, Papadopoulos was sentenced to 14 days in prison. He had pleaded guilty last year to lying to FBI agents about the timing and significance of his contacts with Russians, including a professor who told him the Russians had “dirt” on Trump’s Democratic presidential rival, Hillary Clinton. 

The panel also will examine Bannon’s role with Cambridge Analytica, a former data analysis company that the Trump campaign hired to help identify and target messages to potentially sympathetic voters, the sources said. 

The Senate committee is working with Bannon’s advisers to set a date for him to be interviewed by staff investigators in late November, two of the sources said.
Bannon recently met for the second time with investigators working for Special Counsel Robert Mueller, who is investigating allegations of Russian interference on Trump’s behalf in the 2016 presidential election, one of the sources said.

Meanwhile, Bannon is setting the conservative world on fire:

He got 38 people in Staten Island last week:
The Senate Intelligence Committee investigation could be the best thing that’s ever happened to him. Being martyred for the cause is a sure-fire winner. 
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