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Month: December 2018

Trump’s economic “rocket fuel” blows up

Trump’s economic “rocket fuel” blows up

by digby

Tying the Dow to presidential performance is always ridiculous. It operates on its own logic and presidents take office dealing with economic environments that have nothing to do with them.

But live by the sword, die by the sword:

President Trump was up early one year ago and, in short order, picked up his phone. The night prior, the Dow Jones industrial average had closed at 24,792.20, a record high. Trump tweeted a celebration.

The Senate was poised to pass tax cuts that Trump had pledged would serve as “rocket fuel” for the economy. In a follow-up tweet, he made a similar pledge.

“Stocks and the economy have a long way to go after the Tax Cut Bill is totally understood and appreciated in scope and size,” he wrote. “Immediate expensing will have a big impact. Biggest Tax Cuts and Reform EVER passed. Enjoy, and create many beautiful JOBS!”

For a few more months, it seemed as if Trump’s embrace of the markets and the tax cuts had paid off. Between mid-December 2017 and early February, the Dow surged more than 1,000 points. And then things got bumpy.

As of writing, both the Dow and the S&P 500 are down for the year. For as good as Trump’s first year was — and, in terms of market expansion, it was good — his second year hasn’t been that great. In fact, it’s poised to be one of the worst second years for any president in the history of the Dow in terms of points.

The only one that has been worse? 2002, George W. Bush’s second year in office.

The best second year? Barack Obama’s.

boom.

But again, look at the environment in which both of those presidents were working: 9/11 and the Great Recession. And let’s be honest. “Points” is an irrelevant metric. It’s percentage that illuminates performance.

Still, that GOP tax cut “rocket fuel” blew up before it left the ground. And the Dow is volatile and going nowhere, just like him.

Trump takes credit for the sun coming up in the morning and blames Hillary when it goes down at night so all of his bragging and blaming is just plain stupid anyway. But his only real claim to the presidency was his alleged magical touch with money. (And yes, we know he’s a conman who actually bankrupts everything he touches.)

It will be interesting to see how Trump’s wealthy benefactors deal with this. You’d think they’d be worried that his dumpster fire of a trade war is only going to make everything worse but I suspect they will remain worried enough about losing their precious tax cuts that they’ll stand by their man no matter what.

The fact is that they might be smarter than he is in most ways but 2007 proved that they are just as selfish and unwise. Their greed will kill the golden goose yet.

If you find what we write here every day to be valuable, I hope you’ll consider putting some change in the Hullabaloo holiday stocking. Your support buys me the time to spend my days wading through the muck of the day’s political stories to bring you highlights and analysis that I hope you will enjoy and find informative.

If you’ve already donated, I thank you from the bottom of my heart. If you haven’t and would like to help support this blog for another year, the paypal buttons are on the sidebar and below as is the snail mail address.

And I wish all of you Very Happy Hollandaise!

cheers — digby

Digby’s Hullabaloo
2801 Ocean Park Blvd.
Box 157
Santa Monica, Ca 90405

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What the hell is it? by @BloggersRUs

What the hell is it?
by Tom Sullivan


Trinity tower, Kremlin, Moscow. Photo by Alex Zelenko via Wikimedia Commons.

Judge Emmet Sullivan knows something you and I do not. He has seen the unredacted portions of special counsel Robert Mueller’s 302 filing and probably more. What he’s seen made him very, very peeved with former national security adviser Michael Flynn.

During Flynn’s sentencing hearing in Washington on Tuesday, Sullivan took eight minutes to read aloud from the lies Flynn pleaded guilty to telling FBI agents regarding his communications with Russian officials. Sullivan took care as he began to ask attorneys and staff to signal him if in his remarks he began straying into sensitive areas.

Saying he would not hide his disgust that Flynn as a transition member and senior Trump White House official repeatedly lied to the Justice Department, Sullivan dressed down the retired lieutenant general:

“This is a very serious offense,” Sullivan told Flynn, even after Mueller’s prosecutors told the judge they agreed that Flynn should face little to no incarceration because he cooperated with their investigation.

The judge pointed to the American flag behind his bench and told the decorated combat veteran that he had undermined it: “Arguably, you sold your country out.”

After his angry lecture concluded, Sullivan told Flynn, “I can’t promise you a sentence that involves no jail time.” Sullivan asked if (after 19 interviews) Flynn had concluded his assistance to the government, and strongly recommended Flynn ask for a sentencing delay. He might use it to find still more ways to aid the special counsel’s investigation in the meantime.

“The more you assist the government the more you arguably help yourself at the time of sentencing,” Sullivan said.

The special counsel’s office recommended going easy on Flynn. But the unlucky Flynn faced a judge playing bad cop.

The FBI may be done with him, but Flynn has gone to lengths to conceal what he knows, even risking jail time to protect his secrets and Donald Trump. Whatever Sullivan knows and cannot say, he thought Flynn had not done enough ameliorate the damage he’d done to the country.

What that is exactly we still do not know, but there is likely more to it than Trump’s need to have his name on a tower in Moscow. What was so bad Flynn would knowingly risk his reputation and jail to hide it? What more does the FBI think Flynn’s not telling?

Still remaining publicly untangled: Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner’s reasons for wanting a Russian embassy backchannel for communications with the Kremlin during the transition; what happened at Erik Prince’s January 2017 meeting in the Seychelle Islands with Kirill Dmitriev, head of a Russian government-controlled wealth fund and close associate of the Russian president; what role the company from “Country A” engaged in a weeks-long fight over a Special Counsel’s Office subpoena for documents plays in the Russia investigation. Tuesday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit sided with the government. Little else is known about that area of inquiry or what else may yet surface.

Even if the sitting president was not part of a formal conspiracy to with Russia to rig the 2016 presidential election, Greg Sargent writes, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin’s disinformation teams seem even today remarkably on the same page.

Two reports prepared for the Senate Intelligence Committee reveal not just the scope of the Russian social media disinformation attacks during the campaign, but that they continued after the 2016 election with efforts to discredit the Mueller investigation:

This underscores two important truths. First, in undermining the Mueller investigation, Trump’s and Russia’s interests reinforced one another.

In this sense, Democratic campaign operatives who battled Russian disinformation in the 2018 cycle say that these post-election attacks on Mueller drew on a similar tactic to that used during the campaign. “The Russian influence campaigns often pour gasoline on a fire that is already burning,” said Simon Rosenberg, who worked to counter disinformation for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “It is far more efficient and effective to amplify and extend divisive narratives already in circulation.” Russian attacks on the Mueller probe appear to have echoed ones Trump was already making.

Second, in attacking Mueller, Trump’s and Russia’s interests actually overlapped. But even more crucially, those overlapping interests were served by the concerted undermining of U.S. institutions, something that both of them undertook to do.

Broader than investigating the 2016 interference and Trump’s participation in it, Mueller’s task is forward-looking and aimed at stopping future attacks. Vladimir Putin has strategic reasons for keeping Trump in office. Already pundits suggest Trump’s likely strategy for winning reelection is not to expand his base and sell more snake oil. It is to use relentless attacks that render any opponent equally toxic. That aligns nicely with the strategy Putin is already using against other nation states. If he cannot raise himself up, he can knock them down. And if he succeeds in undermining law enforcement as well, Putin preserves for 2020 and beyond the money laundering and other financial tricks that help facilitate that goal. In Trump, Putin has a willing ally. They want the same things.


If you find what we do here to be helpful in understanding what’s happening around us in this wild political era, if stopping by here from time to time gives you a little sense of solidarity with others who are going through their days as gobsmacked by events as you are, I hope you’ll find it in your heart to drop a little something in the Hullabaloo stocking to help me keep the light on for another year.

The paypal buttons are on the sidebar and below as is the snail mail address.

As always I am immensely grateful for your continued loyalty and interest in my scribbles.

And I wish all of you Very Happy Hollandaise!

cheers — digby

Digby’s Hullabaloo
2801 Ocean Park Blvd.
Box 157
Santa Monica, Ca 90405

Look who’s joined the war against Christmas

Look who’s joined the war against Christmas

by digby

I’m sure the conservative evangelicals for whom he can do no wrong won’t care, but I have to say I think it’s pretty funny that Donald Trump hates Christmas parties:

By the 26th, he will have attended 21 Christmas parties, clocking in at more than 52 hours of festivities in total, or about 10 percent of his waking hours this month.

This is the life of a modern president of the United States in the month of December — and Donald Trump hates every minute of it. While he is known to enjoy hosting large social events and rallies, current and former White House staffers say he regards presidential Christmas parties with a special loathing and goes out of his way to escape early. Making Christmas great again may have been a pillar of his presidential campaign — “We’re going to start saying ‘Merry Christmas’ again,” he often promised — but the war on Christmas is now raging inside of him.

One person close to the White House told me, “It makes perfect sense” that Trump hates the entire production surrounding Christmas, “because it’s not about him!” This person added, “If it were about him, he’d love it. Christmas is not about him.”

“It’s just a lot,” a senior White House official told me. “They’re hosting all these people, half of whom they don’t know,” the official said. “He just gets impatient. He likes to go go go. Sitting through things, he gets restless.”

For his first Christmas as president, the White House parties featured a procedure for guests to enter a line and take a photo with Donald and Melania, an excruciating and monotonous ritual endured by most modern presidents since the early 1960s. It can, and often does, go on for hours. But Trump seems to have less patience for it than his predecessors. At one party, Trump grew so annoyed that he began complaining openly to one of his aides. “He said, ‘I’m supposed to be the president, but now all I do is stand there and take pictures all day. There’s no telling what’s going on in the world right now. I’d never know,’” the former aide told me, recalling the conversation.

While shaking hands with guests and standing for photos at another party last year, Trump spotted Mike Pence in the crowd. According to a second White House official, he forced the vice-president to take his place. “He and Melania left and subbed in the vice-president for the photo line,” the second official said.

Hilarious that he actually said “all I do is stand there and take pictures all day. There’s no telling what’s going on in the world right now. I’d never know” which to me is a feature, not a bug. He should spend all of his time posing for pictures at parties. Like Kim Kardashian, a reality show celebrity as he is. We know for a fact that he isn’t really interested in the world. He’s interested in what people are saying about him on television and in the papers. Like Kim Kardashian.

He hates having to do anything for longer than a few minutes because he needs to feed his TV addiction at regular intervals. Even a Christmas Party is an interruption.

The good news for people attending the party is that he sneaks out early so they can actually have some fun. If he’s in the room, you know it’s all about kissing his hem and telling him how he’s made America great again. It certainly isn’t about Christmas.


If you find what we do here to be helpful in understanding what’s happening around us in this wild political era, if stopping by here from time to time gives you a little sense of solidarity with others who are going through their days as gobsmacked by events as you are, I hope you’ll find it in your heart to drop a little something in the Hullabaloo stocking to help me keep the light on for another year.

The paypal buttons are on the sidebar and below as is the snail mail address.

As always I am immensely grateful for your continued loyalty and interest in my scribbles.

And I wish all of you Very Happy Hollandaise!

cheers — digby

Digby’s Hullabaloo
2801 Ocean Park Blvd.
Box 157
Santa Monica, Ca 90405

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Trump doesn’t have the votes? No kidding.

Trump doesn’t have the votes? No kidding.

by digby

Remember this?

HOUSE SPEAKER-DESIGNATE PELOSI: — you begin, you make your point, you state your case. That’s what the House Republicans could do, if they had the votes. But there are no votes in the House, a majority of votes, for a wall — no matter where you start.

SENATE MINORITY LEADER SCHUMER: That is exactly right. You don’t have the votes in the House.

THE PRESIDENT: If I needed the votes for the wall in the House, I would have them — in one session, it would be done.

HOUSE SPEAKER-DESIGNATE PELOSI: Well, then go do it. Go do it.

Pelosi knew what the votes were and knew the president has about as much clout on legislation as Melania does. Maybe less. He doesn’t have the votes:

Here’s where we are at the moment:

President Trump on Tuesday retreated from his demand for $5 billion to build a border wall, as congressional Republicans maneuvered to avoid a partial government shutdown before funding expires at the end of Friday.

But Democrats immediately rejected Republicans’ follow-up offer, leaving the two sides still at impasse as hundreds of thousands of federal workers await word on whether they will be sent home without pay just before Christmas.

The new border funding offer from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) calls on Congress to pass a $1.6 billion homeland security spending bill that was crafted earlier this year in a bipartisan Senate compromise.

Under the offer, Congress would also reprogram $1 billion in unspent funds that Trump could use on his immigration policies. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), who oversees the panel in charge of homeland security funding, said the reprogrammed money would not be able to be used for a physical wall but could be spent on other border security measures.

Sen. Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) told McConnell Tuesday that Democrats would not accept the deal, and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) criticized the plan to reprogram the funds.

“Leader Schumer and I have said that we cannot support the offer they made of a billion-dollar slush fund for the president to implement his very wrong immigration policies,” Pelosi said. “So that won’t happen.”

Why in the world should anyone give Donald Trump a billion dollar “slush fund” for anything? That’s not how this works. It’s not how any of this works.

If you want to know what the Trumpies are so afraid of:

President Donald Trump, clad in a golf shirt and golf hat under a warm South Florida sun, hitting a drive off the tee while Secret Service agents protecting him are forced to work without paychecks, possibly for weeks, because Congress wouldn’t pay for Trump’s “Great Wall.”

Such is the nightmare public relations scenario facing the White House less than a week before the Department of Homeland Security and other key government agencies run out of money at midnight Friday while Trump is scheduled to fly that day to his Mar-a-Lago resort for a 16-day vacation.

Trump doesn’t care about any of that, of course. In fact, I doubt he even cares much about his stupid wall or anything else that doesn’t have to do with Grand Juries, subpoenas, lawsuits, investigations and congressional oversight right now. Undoubtedly the only thing he wants to do all day is sooth himself with Fox News and talk to friends on the phone who tell him it’s all going to be ok.

And Republicans in congress just want to get out of town and go home to lick their wounds. Trump doesn’t even know how many will be around for a vote — the defeated congressmen aren’t even showing up for work! They’re going on TV and saying they have no idea what the president wants to do and the White House is pretty much telling hem to do whatever they want. It’s a mess.

Presumably, there will be some kind of agreement to stave off a shutdown but you never know. The president is missing in action and the Republicans have lost the capacity to even pretend to govern. Stay tuned.


If you find what we do here to be helpful in understanding what’s happening around us in this wild political era, if stopping by here from time to time gives you a little sense of solidarity with others who are going through their days as gobsmacked by events as you are, I hope you’ll find it in your heart to drop a little something in the Hullabaloo stocking to help me keep the light on for another year.

The paypal buttons are on the sidebar and below as is the snail mail address.

As always I am immensely grateful for your continued loyalty and interest in my scribbles.

And I wish all of you Very Happy Hollandaise!

cheers — digby

Digby’s Hullabaloo
2801 Ocean Park Blvd.
Box 157
Santa Monica, Ca 90405

.

The Trump Grifter Family band

The Trump Grifter Family band

by digby

The question of whether a sitting president can be indicted is very live all over the political world, as is impeachment. But there is no law that says a president’s business (from which, by the way, he has never divested or even distanced himself as president) cannot be investigated. And if there was ever a business that should be investigated it’s this one. It’s a con from top to bottom. And the emerging consensus is that The Trump Organization is in serious jeopardy.

Here’s one analysis:

Federal prosecutors in Manhattan this past week appeared to be barreling forward on a collision course with President Trump. Forbidden from indicting him by their superiors in Washington, the prosecutors instead are likely to turn their guns on the president’s family and close associates and, perhaps most significantly, the business he spent his life building, according to former Department of Justice officials.

In court filings, a dramatic sentencing hearing and an unusually revelatory press release, the prosecutors in the office of the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York added substantially to the mound of public evidence that the president has criminal exposure for arranging secret payments to women during the federal election campaign.

In a sentencing memo, the Southern District cited Michael Cohen’s claims that Donald Trump, as a presidential candidate, had directed Cohen to secretly pay off two women who claimed to have had affairs with Trump, in violation of campaign finance laws. In a lower Manhattan courtroom, as he pleaded with a judge for leniency, Cohen cast himself as a weak man and instrument of Trump’s will.

Shortly after the sentencing hearing concluded, Southern District prosecutors revealed for the first time that they had entered into a cooperation deal with American Media Inc. (AMI), the company that publishes the National Enquirer, which had assisted Cohen by negotiating and making one of the secret payments, $150,000 paid to Karen McDougal based on a sham contract, on the understanding that Cohen would reimburse AMI for the expense. (Despite the understanding, he never actually reimbursed AMI.)

AMI agreed to help Southern District prosecutors by providing evidence in exchange for not being charged. Both Cohen and AMI said that the hush money payments, which Trump was involved with and knew about, were intended to influence the presidential election by keeping derogatory stories about Trump out of the news.

“I think that they’re clearly building a case, right?” said Mimi Rocah, a 16-year veteran of the Southern District now in private practice. “They’re not trying to get Cohen to cooperate against AMI because AMI has a nonprosecution cooperation agreement. And they’re not cooperating AMI just against Cohen because he has already pled out. So there seem to be other targets in their sights.”

While it appears the Southern District is assembling a powerful criminal case against Trump, one of the targets for prosecution may be not the president himself, but the Trump Organization.
[…]
Federal investigations such as Southern District’s are secret, and any discussion of who future targets might be is necessarily speculative, but the charging documents from that office contain some strong hints that the Trump Organization and its executives could be the targets.

Both Rocah and Sandick pointed specifically to allegations that two Trump Organization executives, referred to in charging documents as Executive 1 and Executive 2, had concocted a fraudulent scheme to pay Cohen back for his payment to Stormy Daniels. NBC News and the Wall Street Journal have reported that Executive 1 is the longtime chief financial officer of the Trump Organization, Allen Weisselberg, who was granted immunity by the Southern District in its investigation.
[…]
These machinations, presumably, served a dual purpose. First, they allowed the Trump Organization to maintain the fiction, on its books and before its auditors, that Cohen was simply being periodically paid for legal work on behalf of the company, rather than reimbursed for one-time campaign expenses. “The Company accounted for these payments as legal expenses,” the SDNY prosecutors wrote. Second, in order to maintain consistency with the Trump Organization’s deceptive accounting treatment, Cohen would have to report the full amount received as taxable income on his tax returns, rather than accurately identifying it as an untaxed reimbursement. The increased, or “grossed up,” amounts would have been to cover Cohen’s resulting taxes, since the payments to him were being classified as income, rather than a reimbursement.

The contortions may not just put the Trump Organization’s executives at risk; they could expose the president’s cherished business as well.

“I think there’s a possibility of the Trump Organization as a whole being charged,” Rocah said.

“Charges against the Trump Organization seem like a way of addressing through one path what you might not be able to address through a different path,” Sandick agreed.
[…]
Former prosecutors pointed out that a prosecution of a business organization would not be undertaken lightly. The Department of Justice’s frequently revised guidelines on the subject “generally tend to discourage charging organizations because of the concern about harm to third parties,” Sandick said.

On the other hand, it’s unclear how many employees the Trump Organization has, and thus could be affected, since much of their work seems to be in the area of licensing the Trump name, according to Sandick.

“The truth is nobody, even those of us in the alumni network, lived through something quite like this,” said Sandick. “I was there during 9/11 and we saw lots of huge cases, high profile things. I remember lots of big things happening in the office. But this is, kind of, of a different magnitude.”

Today, the state of New York announced that the Trump Foundation was closing down due to its repeated unethical and illegal conduct:

The stipulation agreement was part of a larger agreement to break up the charity and distribute its remaining funds, under judicial supervision, to other charitable groups approved by New York Attorney General Barbara Underwood, the Washington Post reported Tuesday.

“This is an important victory for the rule of law, making clear that there is one set of rules for everyone,” Underwood said in a statement. “We’ll continue to move our suit forward to ensure that the Trump Foundation and its directors are held to account for their clear and repeated violations of state and federal law.”

In her statement, Underwood also cited “a shocking pattern of illegality” that led to this decision.

Among other things, the Trump Foundation is currently being investigated for allegations the president and his three eldest children, Donald Jr., Eric, and Ivanka Trump, used the charity for their personal benefit and to benefit the president’s 2016 campaign. According to the Post, “Trump used the charity’s funds pay off legal settlements for his private business, to purchase art that decorated one of his clubs and to make a prohibited political donation.”

My favorite Trump Foundation story isn’t the one where he bought his own portrait with foundation money. I think it’s the one where his campaign manager Corey Lewandowski personally coordinated with the family to spread the foundation money Trump had ostentatiously raised for veterans around Iowa in the days before the primary election. It’s corruption all the way down …


If you find what we do here to be helpful in understanding what’s happening around us in this wild political era, if stopping by here from time to time gives you a little sense of solidarity with others who are going through their days as gobsmacked by events as you are, I hope you’ll find it in your heart to drop a little something in the Hullabaloo stocking to help me keep the lights on for another year.

The paypal buttons are on the sidebar and below as is the snail mail address.

As always I am immensely grateful for your continued loyalty and interest in my scribbles.

And I wish all of you Very Happy Hollandaise!

cheers — digby

Digby’s Hullabaloo
2801 Ocean Park Blvd.
Box 157
Santa Monica, Ca 90405

Trumpworld gossip on the mystery Mueller witness

Trumpworld gossip on the mystery Mueller witness

by digby

I have no idea, of course. But Gabe Sherman at Vanity Fair says that Trumpworld has an idea:

“They have no idea what [the] report will say,” a Republican close to the White House said. That is why Rudy Giuliani has been floating the newest line of defense that paying off Stormy Daniels or getting a heads-up from Roger Stone about WikiLeaks wouldn’t be crimes. “They’re testing these messages,” the Republican said. Last night, Mueller was a topic of discussion among the prominent members of Trumpworld, including Don Jr., who gathered at the Trump International Hotel for a birthday party for R.N.C. co-chair candidate Tommy Hicks. “People are speculating that the secret witness in the D.C. court is Don Jr.,” one attendee said. (The White House and a lawyer for Don Jr. did not respond to a request for comment.)

I can certainly understand why they would be so secretive if it is. It would be a circus if it were public. But if it is him, it raises the question about why the prosecutor assigned to this case is an Arabic speaking specialist in counter-terrorism and transnational organized crime. I suppose it’s possible that could apply to Junior but it seems unlikely.

On the other hand, who knows? The Trump Organization is all over the world and they’ve been laundering money for years. Don Junior is the Executive Vice president who said they get all of their funding from Russia and has been up to his neck in deals in Dubai and elsewhere.

Update: The mystery witness is a foreign nation owned company:

That doesn’t mean Junior isn’t involved, of course, but the issue is something unusual.


If you find what we do here to be helpful in understanding what’s happening around us in this wild political era, if stopping by here from time to time gives you a little sense of solidarity with others who are going through their days as gobsmacked by events as you are, I hope you’ll find it in your heart to drop a little something in the Hullabaloo stocking to help me keep the light on for another year.

The paypal buttons are on the sidebar and below as is the snail mail address.

As always I am immensely grateful for your continued loyalty and interest in my scribbles.

And I wish all of you Very Happy Hollandaise!

cheers — digby

Digby’s Hullabaloo
2801 Ocean Park Blvd.
Box 157
Santa Monica, Ca 90405

.

Good lord, this is getting complicated!

Good lord, this is getting complicated!

by digby

Holiday soother: a little Joey

First, thank you all again for contributing to the Annual Hullabaloo Holiday Fundraiser. It warms my heart that you value this humble little project and I can’t begin to tell you how grateful I am.

This has been an interesting morning waiting for the Flynn sentencing and watching the right wingers suddenly become paralyzed after having extolled the virtues of Judge Emmett Sullivan as someone who would expose the Deep State conspiracy to destroy the patriot Donald Trump. That didn’t happen. Sullivan is a skeptic of government power but he isn’t a fool.

You have to forgive them. They are authoritarians by nature so they aren’t used to being on the other side of the fence and they don’t really understand how this works. Civil libertarians care about checking government power and there is ample evidence that the president of the United States and a former Marine General and National Security Adviser are incompetent, unstable and unethical. And we are learning that even the best case scenario shows that those characteristics led both of them to be criminal and disloyal. (The worst case scenario is ….. bad.)

These are the most powerful positions in the world and somebody, somewhere, has to step in in a situation such as this. Preferably it would be the congress but because the Republican Party is batshit insane and politically suicidal the judicial system is the only check on this criminality and gross abuse of executive power at the moment. Sullivan is the type of judge who doesn’t think high government officials should get special treatment and he apparently thinks that’s what Flynn was getting.

It’s possible that by the time you read this Trump will have already pardoned his man Flynn. Who knows? He’s very much on edge right now and anything can happen. Stay tuned.

I don’t have the skills of a Marcy Wheeler at parsing dense legal filings and government documents to suss out the underlying meaning. I depend on her to do that. But I do spend a lot of time reading and synthesizing the political news and trying to put it together in an understandable way for people who don’t have the time or inclination to do that. Years of watching the right wing has given me a pretty good instinct about how that faction works and right now that’s something to which we must pay especially close attention. Donald Trump is a walking social and political crisis and the underlying structure that enables him is key to whether or not we get through this intact.

We have to stay awake right now as exhausted as we are by all this. I promise that I will throw cold water on my face each morning and keep doing what I do to try to help us all sort through it. If stopping by from time to time helps you feel like you aren’t going completely crazy I hope you’ll find it in your heart to drop a little something in the Hullabaloo stocking to help me keep the light on for another year.

The paypal buttons are on the sidebar and below as is the snail mail address.

As always I am immensely grateful for your continued loyalty and interest in my scribbles.

And I wish all of you Very Happy Hollandaise!

cheers — digby

Digby’s Hullabaloo
2801 Ocean Park Blvd.
Box 157
Santa Monica, Ca 90405

QOTD: Paul Krugman by tristero

QOTD: Paul Krugman 

by tristero

Krugman in a brilliant op-ed:

When Democrats threaten to win elections, they rig the voting process, as they did in Georgia. When Democrats win despite election rigging, they strip the offices Democrats win of power, as they did in Wisconsin. When Democratic policies prevail despite all of that, they use apparatchik-stuffed courts to strike down legislation on the flimsiest of grounds.

17 and counting by @BloggersRUs

17 and counting
by Tom Sullivan

Forty-eight persons pleaded guilty out of 69 charged in the Watergate investigations, Wired magazine reminds us. President Richard Nixon may have been the nexus of the affair, but dozens of associates participated in the break-ins and the cover-ups that led to his undoing. President Ronald Reagan never faced impeachment over the Iran-Contra affair, but prosecutors charged 14 others with criminal offenses. Most were convicted. Two received preemptive pardons. Presidentin’ is risky business for those guilty of perfidy.

The problem with money is it leaves clues wherever it goes. Even now, 80 percent of U.S. bills carry traces of cocaine. For a town like Washington, D.C. that runs on money, lots of it, following the money leads investigators places. As in prior investigations into clandestine presidential misadventures, money is key to the Department of Justice uncovering dirty little secrets about President Donald Trump’s public and private business.

Wired reports:

More than two years in, the constellation of current investigations involves questions about foreign money and influence targeting the Trump campaign, transition, and White House from not just Russia but as many as a half-dozen countries. Prosecutors are studying nearly every aspect of how money flowed both in and out of Trump’s interconnected enterprises, from his hotels to his company to his campaign to his inauguration. While President Trump once said that he’d see investigations into his business dealings as crossing a “red line,” it appears that Trump himself obliterated that line, intermingling his business and campaign until it was impossible for prosecutors to untangle one without forensically examining the other.

Obviously, some of these investigations below may—or will—eventually overlap. Many of the players, particularly those like Michael Cohen, may end up central to multiple cases. And the existence of an investigation does not necessarily mean convictions will follow.

Although some preemptive pardons are not yet out of the question.

As a public service, Wired compiled a list of investigations into the Trump administration (that we know of so far), many with Donald Trump as a nexus:

Investigations by the Special Counsel

1. The Russian Government’s Election Attack
2. WikiLeaks
3. Middle Eastern Influence
4. Paul Manafort’s Activity
5. The Trump Tower Moscow Project
6. Other Campaign and Transition Contacts With Russia
7. Obstruction of Justice
8. Campaign Conspiracy and the Trump Organization’s Finances
9. Inauguration Funding
10. Trump SuperPAC Funding
11. Foreign Lobbying
12. Maria Butina and the NRA
13. Elena Alekseevna Khusyaynova
14. Turkish Influence
15. Tax Case
16. The Trump Foundation
17. Emoluments Lawsuit

Eventually perhaps, someone will bring charges against administration officials for actions driven more by cruelty than by money: the mistreatment of migrant children held indefinitely in border camps, or the denial of entry to asylum seekers in contravention of U.S. and international law.

For now, late-night comedians are charging Trump, a man who ran for president to make the whole world stop laughing at “us,” for being incredibly thin-skinned. Instead of stopping the laughs, he’s become the butt of international jokes.

“Remember when he was running for president and he said he was going to come up with a plan to stop ISIS in 30 days?” Kimmel recalled Monday night. “We’re two years in, he can’t even stop Saturday Night Live, never mind ISIS.”

Commenting on Trump’s disastrous on-camera meeting last week with Democrats Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the presumptive next Speaker of the House, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, Seth Meyers observed Pelosi clearly got the better of the self-described dealmaker.

“I’m just going to guess that by looking at the two of them, that Pelosi is going to win. Look at the two of them. He looks like he just had a panic attack in a steam room. And she looks like Neo from The Matrix … if he shopped at Talbots,” Meyers said.

“She’s Tom Cruz. He’s Risky Business.”

Seventeen investigations and counting.


If you find what we do here to be helpful in understanding what’s happening around us in this wild political era, if stopping by here from time to time gives you a little sense of solidarity with others who are going through their days as gobsmacked by events as you are, I hope you’ll find it in your heart to drop a little something in the Hullabaloo stocking to help me keep the light on for another year.

The paypal buttons are on the sidebar and below as is the snail mail address.

As always I am immensely grateful for your continued loyalty and interest in my scribbles.

And I wish all of you Very Happy Hollandaise!

cheers — digby

Digby’s Hullabaloo
2801 Ocean Park Blvd.
Box 157
Santa Monica, Ca 90405

It’s about to get very intense, folks

This post will stay pinned at the top of the page for a while. Please scroll down for newer material. thanks — digby


It’s about to get very intense, folks

by digby

Holiday soother: A baby spider monkey —
(Mom is not a Trump fan)

I feel as if I’ve been writing about Donald Trump for a lifetime. It’s only been three and a half years — it just feels like a lifetime.  And it’s not over yet. In fact, it could go on for some time if this country doesn’t sober up. There are some signs that it is. But he hangover is going to be a doozy.

On the day Trump descended that escalator I happened to be on the Bradcast on KPFK  here in Santa Monica and I talked about how I had a sick feeling in my stomach as I watched the ridiculous spectacle. As someone who’s written about politics 24/7 for the past 15 years, I was all too aware of how batshit crazy the Republicans have become.

The sad truth is that if you closely observe politics in this country, particularly the right wing, the Trump phenomenon did not come as huge surprise.

But Trump is the symptom, not the disease. The sickness that pervades the Republican Party has always been part of American culture. We were a slave-owning country for a very long time and we committed genocide on the native inhabitants of this land. Those wounds don’t ever fully heal. This revanchist, antediluvian strain in our politics flares up and then retreats over and over again. We are in the midst of a very bad bout at the moment.

The Trump crisis is life-threatening mainly because of the complex nature of the challenges we face, with technology and globalization transforming everything on the planet at the same time that we must deal with the existential threat of climate change.  The alliances that have sustained the world in the post WWII era are fraying and adversaries are flexing their economic and technological muscle, pushing the boundaries to see how far they can go.  This man’s overwhelming incompetence combined with the malevolence and ideological extremism of his party is setting the whole world on a course from which it may not be able to recover.

But there are signs that the country is waking up.  If Trump has done one positive thing it’s that by being such a visible and ostentatious asshole, people who didn’t pay attention or were only peripherally aware of what has gone wrong in our politics can see it now. It might be possible to break the right-wing fever, at least for a time, and allow this country to some gain strength and heal up. But it’s going to get very intense before that happens. This is Donald Trump we’re talking about.

All of this is to say that we have our work cut out for us. I’m going to keep writing this blog and publishing anywhere they’ll have me to document what’s going on and try to keep my head as all of this unfolds.  I hope you will continue to stop by over the next year as the election season unfolds and we’ll try to make sense of all of this together.

If you can contribute to the annual holiday fundraiser to keep this little project going for another year, I would be most grateful. Your support is what keeps me going.  (I’ll make you a deal — put a little something in the Hullabaloostocking and I’ll watch Fox and read Breitbart so you don’t have to. 🙂

The paypal buttons are on the sidebar and below as is the snail mail address.

As always I am immensely grateful for your continued loyalty and interest in my scribbles.

And I wish all of you Very Happy Hollandaise!

cheers — digby

Digby’s Hullabaloo
2801 Ocean Park Blvd.
Box 157
Santa Monica, Ca 90405