All bets are off
by Tom Sullivan
Begin with Judge Merrick Garland. Begin with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) denying hearings and a confirmation vote to President Obama’s last nominee to the Supreme Court. Try naming all the familiar norms of governance that no longer function as they once did.
Donald J. Trump staffed his White House with unqualified and unprincipled cronies — some pose/posed national security risks. Executive branch agencies are run by unconfirmed, acting secretaries. The attorney general misleads the public and acts as the president’s personal attorney. Trump lies the way others breathe, profits from his office, name-calls opponents like a 7-year-old, makes policy by tweet, spreads conspiracy theories, inspires right-wing extremism, demonizes immigrants and his own FBI, “pals around with” dictators, obstructs federal investigations, and encourages defiance of congressional subpoenas. That’s a short list.
Yet, throughout discussions of a possible Trump impeachment, people who should know better by now still assume a Trump impeachment will operate by traditional norms. Articles of impeachment passed by the House will trigger a trial and vote in the Senate.
Will they?
Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) bolsters my theory that that norm is gone too. The Hill notes McConnell’s “broad authority to set the parameters of a trial,” reporting Republicans plan to quash any impeachment in the Senate:
“I think it would be disposed of very quickly,” said Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).
“If it’s based on the Mueller report, or anything like that, it would be quickly disposed of,” he added.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), an adviser to McConnell’s leadership team, said “nothing” would come of impeachment articles passed by the House.
Don’t expect Trump’s GOP to play by the rules. “Nothing” might include no trial at all, as I have suggested for weeks. Given how he used that broad authority to quash the nomination of Merrick Garland, McConnell could quash a Senate trial by simply refusing to allow an impeachment trial on the Calendar (from Senate standing rules):
Speaking on MSNBC’s AM Joy on Saturday, David Cay Johnston acknowledged, “Mitch McConnell doesn’t even have to allow a trial.” Johnston sees no constitutional requirement that McConnell do so. [timestamp 6:20]
McConnell said his decision to deny a confirmation vote to Garland in 2016 was “about a principle and not a person.” McConnell argued, “Let’s let the American people decide” via the presidential election. Then-Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) insisted “cooler heads will prevail.” Cooler heads did not.
No one — not even Special Counsel Robert Mueller — expected Trump’s attorney general to use the special counsel’s report in a disinformation campaign to protect the president. Do not assume the rest of this saga will play out as you’d expect it to. All bets are off.
Asked at a Paducah, KY Chamber of Commerce luncheon on Tuesday what he would do if another Supreme Court vacancy arose in 2020, the same McConnell said with a smile after a sip of iced tea, “Oh, we’d fill it.”
Michigan Republican Rep. Justin Amash told a Grand Rapids town hall Tuesday, “Congress has a duty to keep the president in check … And I think we owe it to the American people to represent them, to ensure that the people we have in office are doing the right thing, are of good character, aren’t violating the public trust.”
Following up on his blistering May 18 tweet thread laying out why he believes impeachment is necessary, Amash unleashed another barrage of tweets against the administration, this time targeting Attorney General William Barr for directing a cover-up for the president.
On Tuesday, Amash received a standing ovation in Grand Rapids. Trump won the district by over nine points. What happened Tuesday night in Grand Rapids is sure to provoke an agitated tweet storm from the sitting president. If he was anxious before, he is more anxious now.
What's remarkable is that Justin Amash is the only sitting Republican elected official saying this… https://t.co/lhOf0MkKCC— Joy Reid (@JoyAnnReid) May 29, 2019
McConnell may simply bum’s rush an impeachment trial through the Senate to minimize damage to the president. Or Trump could hate the idea of even more bad press after articles of impeachment pass the House. McConnell might have to promise Trump no GOP defections and blinding-fast acquittal. Or Trump could demand McConnell refuse to hold a trial the way he refused Garland a vote.
Trump would enjoy breaking that norm if only for the trolling value of rubbing Democrats’ noses in it.
For any of that to happen, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi first has to call Republicans’ bluff that she won’t move to impeach.